Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Bounce Backs, Busts, and Mailbag

And so the Chargers said, no way, we're going with Stevie Johnson. Yeah, so you think that that's just going to draw coverage away from Keenan out? Yeah, the defenses cannot go to him. And my last piece is the playoff game against Denver, six catches, 142 yards, two touchdowns. So it's not like he just was, he came on the scene and he was good for a year. He still has the ability. It just things were just, it was just one of those bizarre.

season down sophomore years yeah i think uh going you you always love historically love wide receivers going into their third year so he's going into the third year i like the fact that i think the big problem with him last year was that he got harder coverage so i can see stevie johnson helping that out and then of course news came out today that antonio gates has asked for a more limited role he he went mike wallace yeah he's he did mike wallace do that

No, no, Mike Wallace just took a more limited role on the sideline. Mike Wallace would say, I don't want to go back in the game. Oh, yeah, okay. Yeah, I don't even want to compare those, too. Yeah, so if Gates is coming off the field, the more targets to go around. And so in his sophomore year, he actually played one game less and got more receptions. And in addition to the yards per...

per catch being down, he also just caught half as many touchdowns. Yeah, that's what it comes down to. Those are great bouncebacks, too. This happened to Jordy Nelson a few years ago, where he had a huge touchdown year, then he had a down touchdown year, so everybody faded on him. You know, touchdowns are hard to predict. So look at usage, look at, like you said, total receptions. Keenan Allen, he's young, third year, everything says, even if he floats all the way up to this wide receiver 3 ADP, he's still a value. Yeah, he had a...

Sorry, he had 121 targets in 14 games. Yeah, that's huge. Yeah, yeah. All of this is thrown out the window if Philip Rivers is traded on draft day, just throwing that out. Yeah, I'm not counting on that. No. That doesn't happen very often, although to the Cardinals, that'd be all right. For next year. Oh, okay. Carson Palmer.

All right, so, Keenan Allen. Keenan Allen's a great bounce-back candidate. Let's talk about Jason Whitten. You guys had him as, you know, I'm kind of indifferent on the thought that he can bounce back. Part of that has to do with just age and upside. But he was sixth at the tight-end position in 2013. He was down to 10th last year. No to Marco Murray. He's a safety blanket. What do we think? I know we've said he's of draft value.

But is he going to bounce back with big numbers? Yeah, I think that he will bounce back with good numbers. Here are the previous seven years before last year. The previous seven years, and these are pretty consistent. It's not like, you know, we're shouting weird numbers here. He averaged 89 receptions for the last seven years, and last year he got 63.

That's a huge difference. And the previous seven years, he averaged 127 targets. Last year was only 90. So now the question has to be, is this the new normal or is this the outlier? How many, what percentage of the snaps do you think Jason Witten was on the field last year?

He had been in the top three probably. 98% at least. You're right. At least he was on the field for 99% of the snap. So he is a great run blocker. They were running the ball. They ran the ball like in 2013. They were 65% passing. And last year it was basically 50-50. I expect them to stay.

focused on the run, but they're not going to be able to do the same thing without DeMarco Murray, in my opinion this year. So I think they're going to pass the ball more. The targets go up. Every statistical thing about Jason Witten says he performs just as good. So I see him bouncing back to where he was and being drafted where he shouldn't be. So that's great. Yeah, with the numbers that Jason was going over, just to kind of emphasize them, that was the lowest targets and receptions he's had since 2006.

It was the lowest yards per game since his rookie year. His yards per reception were still great at 11. That's about what he's had throughout his career. So the playability was still there. And he is just an Iron Man. He doesn't miss games. He doesn't miss snaps. What was that injury? He had a lacerated spleen. And he's like, I'm playing. Yeah, he just amazing. He is always there. He is.

He is made of steel of some kind. Well, and the thing is, is when you're talking about bounce-back candidates, there's plenty of guys that had great 2013s, that had crappy 2014s, right? And so we're trying to identify the guys whose fades are not permanent because plenty of guys will pull Greg Jennings where he leaves, has a worst year, and then keeps having worse years. So Witten is somebody who, like you said, he's an Iron Man. He's not as old as you think he is.

Yeah, 32. So, yeah, he's a good candidate for that. The next guy we'll bring up, and we'll kind of bullet point in him because we've talked about him a couple times in a couple different shows. But Vincent Jackson is a perfect bounceback candidate. He led the team in targets last year. He beat out Mike Evans in targets, but he dropped from 14th at the wide receiver position in 2013 all the way down to 38th last year. People are going to...

draft him on that 38th. They're going to be mad. You're talking six, seventh, eighth round probably for Vincent Jackson because of the Evans hype rookie coming in. There's just too much value there for Vincent Jackson and too much talent, I think. Jason, he's a guy that you're super high on. Yeah, of all the bounce back candidates, you know, some of these guys, I think, could bounce back. Vincent Jackson is my guy that I'm saying,

is going to bounce back because there's no reason other than touchdowns that he dropped off and he's always been a touchdown target. And again, I've said this on the show before, but when rookie quarterbacks come in, they target the veteran more than the young stud. And so this year, I just, I don't see how he doesn't finish as a number two wide receiver. And you're right, Andy, he's going right now in the seventh round, 10th pick. So almost the eighth round. That's ridiculous. Oh, it's just, and whereas Mike Evans, who I think is going

finish pretty near him, but maybe even behind is going what? Like second round sometimes in drafts? Yeah. I don't really have much to add, just that his year, if you look at the numbers for the last three years, the touchdowns really is the difference. His yardage was down by about 200 yards, but the touchdowns were what made the difference for Jackson last year.

Absolutely. Vincent Jackson, look for him to be a better value than Mike Evans for sure. We all agree with that. Yes. Reggie Bush is a guy that I want to bring up briefly. I'm not saying I'm 100% sold on him bouncing back, but here's a guy who in 2011 was 12th, in 2012 was 14th, 2013 he was the 11th bank running back. So that three straight years he had very relevant running back one, running back in running back one, running back two numbers. He was 50th last year.

Health was a huge component. Yeah. But here's a guy who has the ability to produce, and I think we'll be basically this take comes from how undervalued he's going to be in a backfield with Carlos Hyde, the hype out of San Francisco. And I just think he might be able to do more damage there than we expect. Colin Kaepernick draws a lot of that linebacker play that might put Reggie Bush in a position where he's in space again, catching passes. He's, you know...

To be fair, when you look back at his good years, he was getting 175 totes at least from the backfield, not just catches. But I wouldn't, you know, if he's super down the board, he's a guy that can produce at a higher level. And I'm just curious to see what he does in San Francisco. Yeah, he's a high, at worst, he's a high level handcuff. That if Hyde goes down or doesn't produce, they're comfortable with Reggie Bush as a veteran to come in and take the job.

The absolute number one question with Reggie Bush is health. He has played for nine years. He has played a full season two times. And he averages just under 13 games a year. If you average out how many games he's actually played. So that's not the best statistic. However, when he's shown that when he's in and in the proper position.

He can produce high-level fantasy numbers. Yeah, one other thing that I like about Reggie Bush, because he's being drafted right now in the middle of the ninth round, and it looks to be leveled off there. It was in the tens, and now he's in the middle of the ninth. So I think that's a good value, but one of the things I like is that the Niners are changing. They lost Greg Roman, the offensive coordinator there, who's a ground and pound guy. They lost their defense, which is going to mean they can't.

run the ball so successfully because they're going to be in more shootouts. And I think when the game gets behind, Carlos Hyde is not known as a pass catching back. And so Reggie Bush might be in the game more than we're expecting. So I like the value at where you could get him. I'm not sold that he will bounce back to where he was beforehand, but definitely.

People are not, people are sour on him, and I think that, and hugely high on Carlos Hyde, and I just think they're going to be closer than everyone right now is saying. Well, and Hyde has a lot of talent, but I am the first guy to tell you, I don't believe in just investing into somebody who has an opportunity and hasn't shown me it over the course of a year, because everybody did that with Monte Ball last year, which I thought was insane.

because of the opportunity, and he just didn't have, he didn't produce. You don't know until you see it. You don't know what he's like in pass protection. You don't know where the trust of the coaches is with a young guy. There's a lot of times you just put out a veteran. I mean, Reggie Bush is a veteran. He knows what he's doing on the field. He's, you know, a leader out there. So don't sleep on him. Here's a couple of guys. We're going to tag team these two. Yeah. I thought Mike, Mike brought these up. Great guys to remember. Brandon Marshall and AJ Green. They finished in the top five.

Together, they finished fourth and fifth in 2013. Last year, they all the way down to 23rd and 34th. What do you have to say about Brandon Marshall specifically? Just that Marshall has shown that even with a subpar quarterback, he can still produce. And while we're mentioning these names, it's not because people are going to...

forget them necessarily. It's just the recency bias of being so let down by Brandon Marshall last year in particular, and AJ Green with his injuries and people might sour on him a little bit. However, what are we, freaking me out, man. With how they finished last year, people are going to be upset that this always happens.

And AJ Green will not be drafted where he should be. And we've talked about him a little bit in terms of just being able to come back from an injury plagued year where people have fear of Dalton or fear of, or maybe just they like other guys more because they've done it. Like Evans or something. That's what's going to happen is guys will, they'll say, oh, well, I'm not so sure about last year and Evans had a great year. So maybe I'm going to pass on AJ Green. Adrian is a super stud. A guy gets it done all the time.

Yeah, except when he can't play because he's hurt. But other than that, he'll get it done. And there's nothing that I saw in the field from Brandon Marshall last year while he was healthy, told me he couldn't separate anymore. He was open, he was getting targets. It was just a matter of he's going to land in a new place now with an improved offense from what they were last year. And, you know, is he fourth? Are they improved from what the bears were last year? No, but not many teams will be kind of like that. We're saying he'll come, but he'll finish higher than he did last year.

You're not... You're worried about Marshall. I'm a little bit worried about Marshall. I am madly man-crush in love with AJ Green. I think he's going to be top five, but...

Brandon Marshall has a few things that worry me. I think, you know, his head has always been a possible issue. And Mike brought this up a couple weeks ago. But going to New York is not an easy thing for an athlete, the major media market. I mean, granted, Chicago is not far behind as far as major media markets. So he has been used to that. But he's also, you know, he doesn't have the rapport. He's a little bit older. And I expect him to do what he did in Miami. And in Miami, he was still a serviceable.