Take Swap! + Tilt Prevention Tips - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/22

a running back special in the passing game, I am drawn to the fact that he caught 91% of his targets. That number is insane. That is. Sounds truly insane. Truly unrepeatable. Well, he was 86% the year before. And yeah, I mean, that's a great number, but that's very good. But I mean, 64 of 70 targets and then 86% the year before, what you're doing is like why? If you're a professional football team, you don't change that part of it. That's just my opinion on the Bucky Irving thing. You don't change the best in the league. Very good at football. Joe Mixon has caught more than 86% of receptions in a season two times in his career. Pretty good. He is very good at football. I agree. But I'm saying that that's a, that's a, Rashad White just, he might be.

that good at that part of the game. Yeah, that's why I don't under, depth is important, right? Chase Edmonds didn't get it done. Like, Bucky Irving can fit a role and I just think Rashad White does the same stuff. And that, but the concern is like, maybe you just, you need to get Rashad White some, some more rest. So maybe, maybe he keeps doing the, the past catching and they start working more guys in on the ground. I don't know. He just, he's a very difficult running back because so much of it was just volume. And he's not like a first round running back that you're locked in. And I know he's going to get everything. Mike, do you feel as though Jason may have something to get off of his chest at this point? It looks like it from what I can see. Okay. Well, let's explore one of my best takes here. Make sure I gave you the right one. Yeah, we're good. All right, listen up. It's way too early to give up on Austin Echler. He was a top.

Eight or better running back in five of 14 games. He saw over 18 opportunities per game, including over five targets per week, scoring 11.4 points per game. That's a better mark than Swift, Najee, Warren, Giovante. I really, really enjoyed having him on my team last year and was so thrilled Andy didn't accept my trade for him. If he's got anything left in the tank, Cliff Kingsbury, offensive mastermind, will be the one to get the most out of him. It's like I've always said, I want old veteran running backs coming off their most inefficient season and partnered with rookie mobile quarterbacks. If that's not a recipe for success.

I don't know what it is. Wow. I thought you had been kind of out. You know, after last year's experience. I didn't know you were like the burns. What was the first line you just? The first line is it's way too early to give up on Austin Echler. And that is what my therapist has taught me is that the scars and the burns from last season. Yeah, let it go. They're in the past. Wow. And you want to, you know, you want to have. A split backfield committee for a rookie quarterback for an aged veteran, yeah. And when you think about it, only 61% of his rushing attempts gained three or fewer yards. That is when I think of it, what I. So you would word it only 31% of his carries went for. 39. Oh, 39, yes. Based on math. So Austin Echler has been talked about very little on this show.

over the offseason. And yet, I mean, he's being drafted as the running back of the eighth round. So this, it's, this isn't a nobody in the draft right now. No. People, people are going off going after Austin Echler. So Jason is in, Andy, where have you gotten to with, with Austin Echler? Well, I mean, my, um, I think my value pick was Brian Robinson if that tells you anything. I mean, I look at Echler like a. like a re-roll of Antonio Gibson from last year, which is somewhat irrelevant. I do enjoy. Have you seen this quote from Cliff Kingsbury? Yes, I have. I couldn't figure out. Do you want me to read the whole thing? Or just maybe I'll get to the part that says, I didn't study him much in free agency. That's the part. I didn't think he'd be here. You're leaving out the best parts. Okay, go ahead. When offensive mastermind Cliff Kingsbury said, I watch and I'm like, this guy's tremendous. So I'm not sure what it was last year, but he hasn't lost his step.

He's as quick and as fast and as strong as I've seen him. This is a real quote. This was not a take swap with Cliff. No, that is a real quote. He does continue on to say I didn't study him much in free agency. Here's the thing about past catching backs, I will say, is that they don't need much to be relevant for fantasy. So when you are looking at him, do I want to take him in the eighth round? I probably will not do that. But could he be a usable flex on certain weeks or in PPR leagues? Absolutely. And in his defense, Echler, it was on the ground, it was terrible. That's where it was 179 attempts, three and a half yards per carry. Like that is terrible. He was still eight and a half yards per catch though on 74 targets. Got 51 of them. So a low catch percentage for Austin Echler. And you didn't get those sweet, juicy receiving touchdowns like you're used to getting.

But, like, he was still making big plays. If he was the free agent pickup that Washington brought in to be their guy, because they didn't have anybody else, we would be talking about Eklah completely differently. It's the fact of what Jason illustrated. Now, I'm surprised he's not doubting it, but a mobile rookie quarterback with a committee on a team that has got a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator and a tough division. All those things combined means that predictability, like, Look, if we came out in Austin Eckler's surprise with six catches in week one and a touchdown and he's a free agent pickup, I mean, that's not impossible. Especially first half of the year. He's dealt with injuries. He played through injuries, we hope, last year. Because if he didn't play through injury, he has lost it. We watched him go down the sideline like a fullback. So he better have been playing through injuries for us to have any hope. All right, we're going to take a quick break and then come back with some thoughts from Mike and myself.

All right, Mike. Let's swap these. You can give me yours. All right. I'll take this. I will go. I will read first. All right. Yeah. Let's see what you're thinking these days. As a man known for both tradition and small talk. It's about time we had a little heart to heart about something near and dear to me. That is, of course, testosterone. It's about time we talked about it. The big tea. That grid iron tradition of high T football is a man who likes doing things the way they've always been done. Playing the game. That is you. That is the way it was meant to be played. It's time we got back to the roots of the game. Where are my leather heads at? Oh, last year. Shout it out. Last year, the seven teams that ran the ball the least didn't make the ball.

Last year, the seven teams that ran the ball the least didn't make the playoffs. Well, seven of the top nine teams who ran it the most made the playoffs. That's a great find. Volume, grit, toughness, the fire in your belly, the pigskin in your paws. Running that thing left and right and center until the cows come home. Wow. Do it like they have always done. Hand that rock off and let them churn out those first downs like the forward pass doesn't exist. That's the way I like it. And you should too. It's the way to go, and it might just be the way to go in fantasy football. I like that you still call it the forward pass. Yeah. Yes. Well, it's this new fangled invention. Where my leather heads at. Well, I mean, my tradition is, is something that we know about you. Yeah. Oh, yeah. No, doing things just because that's how we've all, we've done them, that's what I say is the best medicine. And that those stats that still.

Get you. I mean, they're great stats, of course. But the stats of, well, this team that won, they ran the ball 30 something times. All you got to do is if you run the ball 35 plus times, you win like 90% of the games. That's how statistics work. I mean, that is correlation causation at its root. Yeah, I mean, you and Guns Mahoney. Yeah. I mean, it is the interaction between the running game, fantasy football. And the NFL has always been very interesting to me. Because we've had a lot of seasons where the most effective running teams, the ones that do commit to it the most, there's chicken or egg to a degree. You get up. You run the ball more. You're up. You run. But for a ton of years, I mean, New Orleans, Baltimore, San Francisco last year. And like I said, seven or like you said. Like you said, seven of the top nine teams that were taught, it was the maximum rushing volume.

It has been a recipe for success at the NFL level. But at the same time, we look at efficiency. We look at passing around the goal line. We like it. Neutral game script. Correct. But I didn't realize you were such a traditional. Is this mean, are you thinking about running back, running back, running back to start your drafts? That's what we're wondering. Yeah. For running back? People were just asking us about zero RB. And I say zero anything but RB. Yeah. Wow. Nice. Strong point. Is this, it's my turn? It is. It is. Oh, this is a nice big font. I like this. Jaden Reed. Oh, gosh. I wanted to say this to everybody. Jaden Reed was a product of opportunity last year. Wow, could have been. Tell us why. Well, he's a fine-ish player. His numbers are unsustainable. It's tough to admit. He topped four receptions in only four games. He massively overproduced in the touchdown department. And Reed scored a touchdown on 13% of his touches. A score every seven and a half.

touches. Over the last decade, we've seen 16 wide receivers have 10 plus touchdowns on 75 or fewer touches like Reed. The average drop in touchdowns next year, 5.4. That's a lot. When both Reed and Christian Watson were playing together, nine games in total, Reed only managed them easily two quality fantasy games. And look at those playoffs. The biggest stage, the most important games of the season. Reed? Question mark? A combined four receptions for 35 yards over two games. He's a part-time mediocre player surrounded by very talented players. Whoa. Okay. That's a scathing review. If I hadn't changed my opinion to this exact thing right here, I would be upset. Yeah. But now you know. You know what I mean? Yeah, but mediocrity or Jaden Reed, I'll just put it that way, is he's in a crowded. Right.

Backfield of other quality wide receivers. Yeah, and the important thing is that some of you out there would be blaming all of the injury struggles over the back stretch of the season. But I've come to realize that those are irrelevant. He just sucks. Well, no, no, he's fine,ish, you said. Yeah, he's fineish. You were mean to him. I mean, no, I'm sorry, I meant a part-time mediocre player. Oh, yeah, yeah. Surrounded by very talented. Full-time players. And of course, by full-time players, I do mean Christian Watson. Yes. It was always available and on the field. I don't know what I think about my own thoughts. You know? Well, some of what you brought up is fascinating. Sounds like some things you've brought up before. The truth is that he did overproduce on touchdowns. It's not a sustainable pace for just about anyone. For the volume that he got. There is, to be fair, to my own thoughts.

John Donson comes to mind. If you wanted to find the negative case for the Reed rookie season, it would be Dotson. Dotson overproduced touchdown wise, was efficient, flash as a rookie, believed in the talent, didn't produce as a sophomore. One of the reasons I didn't make Jane Reed by my guys, because I knew later on I would write this scathing. Yes. Opinion where all of my scouting and opinions on him were kind of changed suddenly in the midst of an episode. Don Tavian Wicks. Dantavian Wix is obviously better, right? I mean, I think I might think that right this point. He's not mediocre. No. So, yeah, I mean, I guess I could be wrong, and he might end up being amazing. And that talent shines through this year, but we'll find out. Let's jump into some mailbag. Mailbag. How did we not mailbag swap?

Oh, yeah, well, I mean. Like make the deucers do it. Doesn't take long to get the Falcon in there. Oh, Falcon. Mailbag. Mail bag. Yes. Yes. Oh, yes. Oh, yes. Oh, his face, his face when it wasn't on camera. Woo! vigorously shaking his head. No, no, no, no, no, don't do this. And it was like the music is going. Good for you. You get some credit to Dan, Falcon. You went all in on it. You embraced the mailbag swap despite, I mean, Jason's right. He was. Vigorously shaking his head, no. I've never seen someone sprint without moving before, but that's what he was doing. He was just trying to run out of this room to take a Falcon. That was great. That was great. Thank you.

falcon you get mad props on that um if you have a question for the show you can go to the website the fantasy footballers dot com and click the submit a question button um yeah falcon said he blacked out what just happened you can dial the voicemail hotline 302464 tfb and um here we go by the way what was your uh what was your thought on our first take swap episode did you um you enjoy yourself Yeah, yeah. There's some fun things to be had. Hopefully the audience can understand the difference in what we actually believe. And also, hopefully maybe a thing or two there brought to light a different shade of our opinion that maybe is a little bit more reasonable in some of them. Well, probably not for Mike. He does what he's always done. He does what they always do. Yeah, high tea. Why are you such a big fan of TD-only leagues?

Uh, because that's the only time that they score in the NFL. Oh, okay. That's a good part. That is the right answer. All right. Our first question comes in from Instagram. Josh writes in says, what is your view on Kirk Cousins? Uh, he's a quarterback. Yep. He is, I don't know if you guys saw the playlist, but there was a playlist where Kirk Couss, it was his birthday. He got to put it out there. And you know what? It was a good playlist. I had no problems with it. But it's hard to get overly excited about Kurt Cousins because we just don't know if he's going to be truly healthy. Let me bring a point up if this is okay, just to answer the question for us. Kirk Cousins and Aaron Rogers are both coming off of devastating injuries. Different legs, same injury. Both have.

I'm going to just say change teams. Rogers got to play zero, basically zero skills. So new, new offense, new situation. Both have two of the best running backs in the game of football, Bijon Robinson and Reese Hall. And both have had prolific fantasy seasons, Rogers more than cousins, but both have done it in the past. Both have same year, up and coming superstar wide receivers, Drake London and Garrett Wilson. We do not bring up very often or haven't. I haven't heard it. The fact that the Jets' offense could be prolific. The Jets' offense could be incredible, despite the fact that they have all of those same attributes that Kirk Cousin says, right? But it does get brought up around Atlanta. You know, the thought that Atlanta could just turn everything around. They have a worse defense. Maybe that means you think they'll throw the ball more. But the situations are wildly parallel. Yeah. From running back to wide receiver to injury to how you've established. I just feel like nobody, like has anybody whispered Aaron Rogers' name?

in a fantasy conversation? No. He has all those same things. There's a lot of similarities, but it was just like the upside of the Falcon's skill position players. I just talked about Darnell Mooney of, I think that he is still a quality-wide receiver. It's hopes and dreams, I get it, but Kyle Pitts still deserves hopes and dreams because of the talent. At least we saw his rookie season. and over 1,000 yards as a rookie tight end, nearly impossible to do, but he managed to do it where the Jets, like who is the second, not naming Breece Hall, who's the second best pass catcher for the New York Jets? Probably Gibson until Mike Williams comes back, I'm guessing. Yeah, and like I'm not, I'm not really factoring Mike Williams into the offense as a total. It's kind of funny. Williams and Mooney field similar. But one of them's not recovering from an ACL.

Correct. So that's what I'm saying. Not this year. I'm not, that's where I'm saying I'm not factoring Williams in as much as Mooney. They are back to back in draft. I would add to that the you've got an age gap here, right? 36 years old versus 40 years old. So you're 40 years old coming off of an Achilles injury. And when he was 38 years old, when Aaron Rogers was not injured. He wasn't that great his last season in Green Bay. I know he lost Devante Adams, but, you know, 3,600 yards, 26 passing touchdowns, which is very not Aaron Rogers like. So I think it's like, well, he's got to recover at age 40 and get back to prior to what he was when he was healthy. That just seems like a tall task, especially for a team that is so darn good on defense that you don't have to push.

the ball downfield, you know, enough for fantasy purposes to have, even if they are one of the best teams in the league and they can, you know. Rogers has never been a yard guy though. No. No, but he's been a touchdown guy. He's been a touchdown guy. When he was 3080, he threw 26 passing touchdown. His career average per year, points per game for Rogers is 20 and a half. Cousin's career points per game is 16.2. Yeah. And in the final year of Aaron Rogers healthy. It was 14.1. Right. That's that's why I've given a lot of weight to that season for now two years because we didn't get to see Rogers on the field last year. Yeah. It's just he's old. Isn't that going to be fun though? Oh, I can't wait. And I am genuinely, I mean, I'm always rooting for all these quarterbacks to do well. But to get back to the original question of Kirk Cousins, if he's healthy, he should be pretty darn good. I mean, this, this is a, the Rams system.

that fits his play style. He's not going to be mobile, so he's going to be one of those guys that's a low-end quarterback one or just a good super flex QB2 type. Coming from the RAM system, there's a guy in the RAM system right now named Matthew Stafford that has two prolific past catchers, Dan McVeigh already. And I look at Cousins in that lens. I think Cousins and Stafford would be the more like occasional weekly upside but probably probably not every week and probably not top 12 guys. Yeah, that's where I said you're I look at Stafford the same way. He's a low end quarterback one or probably a quarterback two in Super Flex leagues that you're happy to have. Yeah, that's right. Instagram question from Mike 562. Do you believe that George Pickens can be a league winner? No, but I'm.

probably alone there. No, no. League winner is to actually receive the moniker of League winner, he would have to finish top five. Now, can he be top five? He's being drafted as the wider receiver 29 in the back of the fifth right now. The Steelers, as of this recording, a little bit early, the Steelers and the Patriots are the only team to not name a starting quarterback. Now, because Bo Nix was named the starter for the Denver Broncos. Did you guys? Which we should have talked about. Yeah, well, I'm mentioning it right now. The Steelers quarterback situation, that's a little strange to me. Russ has missed a bunch of time with injury, and everything out of Steelers camp has been, no, Russ is going to be the guy, but then you get, or getting the whispers of, well, the quarterback competition is actually a little closer.

than most people would think. So do you guys have a read on that? Because that affects the outcome of George Pickens in a big way as well. I mean, I saw the report that, you know, it was like they're the only two teams that haven't declared a starter. Is that really true? Because I feel like Tomlin from day one has said quarterback one is. No, it is true. So he has come out and said that Russ is no longer the starter? I just haven't seen that actually happen. They never named Russ as a starter. They named him as the That's the quarterback one. That was the phrase he always used. He's the quarterback one. And I don't know what that means if not starter. Means your first up in practice. Okay. I think it's a bad sign that he hasn't come out, come out and declared that and reinforced it. I do. I absolutely do. I think most teams have done it. They haven't done it. And frankly, both guys look like they're not very good. Well, they are the reason why I say no. It's not Pickens. If, if tomorrow.

CD Lambs contract negotiations go sideways and there's a pickings for CD trade. Yeah. Pickens could be a league winner playing with DAC as the wide receiver won there. But I don't see a league winner for whoever is the wide receiver one between Russ and fields. Yeah. It does seem challenging. And I don't even know. I honestly don't even know who I'd prefer like Russ provided nothing to Denver's past catchers. And at least Fields gave you DJ Moore's big season. Right. But Fields is a problem behind center too. So I still am blown away that Cortland Sutton had 10 receiving touchdowns from Russell Wilson. 10 double digit touchdowns and he was the wide receiver 36. Yeah, it's impossible. It does. All right. This is a website question from Caroline in Huntington Beach. Hey, ballers. I play in a half PPR league.

that also awards half a point for a first down. Nice. How do I take that into account when drafting my positional players? Should I be looking at full PPR rankings? Thank you. It's a great question. This is an interesting topic. There are those out there that would like to kind of push us towards a point per first down format versus point per reception because, you know, a screen pass for zero yards is not as valuable as they pass for a first down. This is interesting of the half for the catch and another half. You complete the PPR if you actually get a first down. I'm totally fine with that. Yeah, I think it's cool. I mean, as far as what rankings to look out, I think looking at PPR rankings are fine for this. But what you want to do is go just Google like first downs, you know, last year and see which types of players and which players led the league in first downs and rank them and just kind of sort them mentally a little bit.

within themselves. If they're a behind the line of scrimmage type of screen game guy, that's not going to be the sticks mover. I'll give you some data. Yeah. If we want it. Top five receiving first down leaders, so receptions that were for first downs. I bet it's all the high PPR guys. Tyree Kill. Yeah. CD. Check. Amunrah. A.J. Brown. Pooka. Those are the top five. No one is surprising. Those are not, yeah. How far is the list go down that you're looking at? As far as we want. Is there any? Who's 356? Well, Jason. Okay. At what point in the order is there a name where you go, oh. Godwin with 53, which was right at the same level as Nico Collins is interesting. That's, yeah. Feeling at 56 is interesting. Somehow did. They had 56 first downs. Dealing it.

The Panthers? Oh, the team. Amazing. Maybe interesting that Hawkinson had 48, where, which was the same amount as Laporta despite missing time. Yeah, Hawkinson was having a good year. I'm not seeing anything. I mean, 46 for Jacoby Myers, who is, that's more than Drake Lennon and Rashi Rice, George Kittle. So that's kind of interesting. Yeah, it's more of. The PPR guys at the top are going to be the first down guys because they're catching a bunch of passes. And then the players who, like Nico, it's going to, it might be a little bit lower because they're big play guys. Not surprising, you know, rushing first down wise, McCaffrey lap the field. Yeah. So McCaffrey, and this includes quarterbacks, any rushing first downs, McCaffrey had 83 rushing first downs. The next closest was 68.

And this is a wild one. The fifth highest rushing in the NFL, quarterbacks included, first downs, Chuba Hubbard. Wait, Carolina had that many first down? That one's wild, right? Yeah, more than Moser, more than Josh Allen, more than Montgomery. That's a high number. That is also, I mean, touchdowns are essentially counted as a first down, so I figured most are. I had 20 some of those. That's, I mean, that is the name that jumps out at the top 20 at the rushing for rushes. Interesting. All right. We are going to wrap things up today. We got a mock draft episode. Tomorrow we've got our live show on Saturday evening. A few straggling seats remain. And you can go to ballerslive.com if you want to come see us live in Los Angeles on Saturday. We would love to see you. The place is going to be packed. We've got tons of special stuff in store. We're giving away.

literally like 20 autographed jerseys that we're going to be thrown out into the crowd and the mezzanine. Yeah, which shout out to pristine auction for providing all those. Shout out to Sleeper for presenting the show. Absolutely. And we're also raising money for fantasy cares. Yes. With the live show as well. So it's going to be just a really good time to connect before the season and during draft season. So ballerslive.com for tickets. Get into the megalobole at megalobole.com. And we will be back with yet another episode tomorrow. But we will not be doing pick swap during the mock draft. Just so you know. Okay. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.