The NFL is Back! + NFC South Breakdown - Fantasy Football Podcast

Yes, what's wild about this, Jason, I don't know if you have this stat in front of you. Todd Gurley was tied for the fourth most routes run at the running back position. He had 391 routes. That's, he tied with Levian Bell. Lev Bell had 66 receptions. Like, what happened? I don't know. Why were they not throwing the ball to Gurley? Is there something we don't know? It was, it was super weird. Or would, or were they dumb? I don't know.

I don't think that that's the question this year, right? You've got Devante Freeman, who has always been a pass catching running back, who has exited. He was even less efficient than Todd Gurley was this last year. He was putrid. And so now Todd Gurley comes in. If he's better than Devonta Freeman on the ground and actually has the passing work, does that make up for the lack of touchdowns? I believe it does because...

There's no team in the entire NFL with more vacated targets. Vacated targets tend to go to the running back position. You have a running back who can catch the ball, a quarterback who passes to the running back. So while I don't think he's going to be a touchdown machine for Atlanta, I do think his passing work comes up. I am fine drafting Todd Gurley this year, but apparently where he's being drafted, apparently I am on an island. Well, I just think that there's not going to be just Todd Gurley on the field.

I've said that for the last two months. I don't think that they're going to bring Ty Gurley in and give him every down. I think you're going to be disappointed in Atlanta with the rotation. And Gurley will be on the field, no doubt, but I'm worried about the rotation there. And, you know, I think if you threw in front of your statement, what Atlanta does with Devante Freeman, you know, if Gurley gets the majority of the running back work.

I don't see any reason why he shouldn't be productive and outperform where I have been ranked and where I expect him to be. I just don't have the confidence that that's what they brought him in to do. Because Dan Quinn has used, he has befuddled us with his rotations in the past. And just speaking to the draft, like in best ball ADP, like Todd Gurley right now is sandwiched between Leonard Fournette, Melvin Gordon, Lev Bell, Chris Carson.

Not that I love all of those players, but I definitely would rather have Chris Carson on my team. I'd rather have Levian Bell. On my team, I'd rather have Fournett. So I just, I don't know if there will be a team where I draft Todd Gurley. All right, let's talk about the, do you have Melvin Gordon hired and Gurley, Jason? I do have Melvin Gordon higher than Gurley. I know you like Gordon. I was curious how close they were. Tampa Bay, last year seven and nine.

They had a bunch of one-score games. We talked about that on the previous show with the NFC North. They were three and six in those one-score games. I think that was, those are the kind of games that Bruce Ariens turns into a tomato. I think we know whose fault it was. Without question. James Winston, think about this number in your head. He threw an interception on 7.3% of his attempts. Holy crap.

So you were just waiting for the next one to land, and that's why he's not a starting quarterback despite throwing for 5,000 yards and Tampa being the number one team in football in passing yards per game. It's a testament to Bruce Ariens and what he continues to do when he comes to, whether it's Andrew Luck in Indianapolis, whether it's Arizona or here in Tampa Bay last year in his first season.

Here we are. You have a huge addition. His name's Tom Brady. You have another one at Tight-in, Rob Grankowski. Say goodbye to James. Said goodbye to Peyton Barber. And spend a first-round draft pick on Tristan Wirth's, offensive lineman, trying to protect Tom Brady. Donovan Smith's, one of the two players that have come out and said they are considering. He's the offensive tackle in Tampa. He's considering skipping the year that he'll be a name to watch.

But they also added Kishon Vaughn in the third round running back to accompany Jason's my guy. Don't do that. Ronald Jones. You can't assign that. I am warming on Ronald Jones. Let me just ask you a question. Would you put the hate blockers on when you announced it? Would that be the way to do it? I would have to. I'm legally obligated if that happened. I don't. So here's, you know, here's why he's not going to be a my guy. But he.

I like him for fantasy this year where he's being drafted, Ronald Jones, is as a complete backup. And he's a starter. And my worry, though, is he did have, you know, some past protection issues last year. That's a huge thing for Bruce Ariens. It's even bigger now with Tom Brady. Now, is that to say that a rookie coming in is going to be better at it than, you know, two years of on-field experience? No.

But should Ronald Jones come out and whiff a couple times and get Tom Brady sacked, he will be yanked. So, you know, I wouldn't be able to make Ronald Jones a my guy. But I do think he is a value right now in drafts, especially if you're like a zero RB drafter and you're drafting your running backs late. He's a starter that's going super late for an offense that's good. It is a testament to your analysis that you have pivoted

your willingness to take Ronald Jones. And I'm just saying this is like introspection moment here. Like we spend all of our time on this show telling our listenership to stay water, pay attention to what's happening, pay attention to draft price, but it is so entertaining to bring up over and over again. Yeah, I hate it, but I love it. I hate it, but I love it. And it sucks because Kishon, Kishon Vaughn was a guy that both Mike and myself, I don't know how you felt, Andy, but I know.

We had conversations pre the NFL draft. We adore him. That was one of the guys before the draft that I had, I had him ranked. I think he was my number four running back pre-draft. And my only thing was I didn't think someone was going to take him high enough to matter. And he was drafted with good enough capital here by the Buccaneers to maybe get a shot at relevance. But right now you think that Ronald Jones will have more fantasy-worthy weeks than Kishon Vaughn in this upcoming 2020 season? I do. Mike?

Yes, I do as well. All right, let's talk about, by the way, Ronald Jones going at RB 32 right now. So, yeah, that could be a great opportunity in a Brady offense if he gets it, which we expect. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, one of the best handums in football. I like them both. Yeah. Not a lot to say about these guys. I guess we need to talk about Mike Evans because Jason, Jason hasn't ranked the low.

I'm in. I'm in with Tom Brady. I'm in with the plant man. I think him in the Bruce Arian system, there's going to be fantasy points flowing throughout the team. Jason, you're a bit more skeptical that Mike Evans, Mr. I have not had fewer than a thousand yards in my entire career. I have him not performing as well.

I am not skeptical in the slightest. Where I've got him ranked right now is disgusting at wide receiver 19. That's just how the stats fell when it comes to not only Mike Evans, but the other 18 wide receivers who have steaded out ahead. I would have zero qualms being at a draft, looking, staring down Mike Evans, even as my wide receiver won and saying he has every tool capable.

to be great this season. I think, you know, because of the Bruce Arian system, the utilization of the slot and Tom Brady's propensity to utilize a slot wide receiver and Julian Edelman or Wes Welker, Chris Godwin has the probability of being the clear number one in this offense. But it's not a foregone conclusion that Mike Evans, who's just a beast of a wide receiver, always had a thousand yards, is great. Now as a quarterback...

hopefully upgrade going to Tom Brady could have a wonderful season. I'm not anti Mike Evans in the slightest. But the fact that there are those two great wide receivers, that's why you look at rankings and you say, well, you know, some people might say we're anti-Gronk. Grunk used to be the... I'm pretty anti-Gronk. He used to be the number one or the one B on the offense. He is at best the distant third in an offense.

now splitting with another tight end. So, yeah, I have no qualms with Chris Godwin or Mike Evans. There is the aspect of we'll find out to this offense in terms of the receiving targets. We don't know who Tom Brady's going to prefer. We don't know how much the system will look like last years. And I don't, maybe you guys can remember off the top of your head. I don't remember the last down the field Patriot wide receiver.

under Brady that had a monster fantasy. Randy Moss. Brandon Cooks. I mean, Randy Cooks pretty well. So it's been a little bit of a while since that happened. That does not to take anything away from Mike Evans. But when you talk about Chris Godwin, all of us have him. Well, no, Mike doesn't. But Jason and I have him ranked outside of where he's being drafted. He's the wide receiver six. It's really a ceiling pick with Chris Godwin.

right now in fantasy drafts, whereas Evans, the value on him seems, yeah, I mean, for both guys, it's really a ceiling pick. I mean, they're both in the top 10. Of average draft, yeah. And here are some worries. You brought it up earlier, Donovan Smith, the left tackle, and Tristan Worf's, a rookie. That is a very difficult position to have no preseason, no OTAs, truncated. You know, they're going to be out there being like, what's the snap count?

So if he's missing those two pieces or if Tristan Worf takes a while as a rookie to be good and this offensive line isn't what you hope it is, then Brady is no spring chicken. It could get, it could get ugly. I trust Brady as the goat to yell at his offensive line and coach him up enough, but it's not without risk. This isn't a guarantee that Chris Godwin is great, and Mike Evans is great.

This was a good offensive line last season, ranked 7th by Pro Football Focus. They ranked 13th going into the season. They did draft Tristan Wirth. There are some question marks. Obviously, Brady can't move around, but he's going to have a lot of targets. I am the highest on Rob Grancowski of the three of us. It has inched forward in recent weeks. You talked about Jared Cook earlier in the show about, you know, once you get beyond the first two or three.

tight ends, the volume type of players. Sure. You're looking at touchdowns and probability of touchdowns. And Grankowski has that capability. And three weeks into the season, everybody could be staring at Rob Gruncowski, who's got five touchdowns on the season and going, well, I missed that. So I just think that that's a possibility. And I like the upside. And I can see the path. But he's not the same Granc and people need to remember that.

Yep, agreed. Yeah, he hasn't played a full season since 2011. That's quite a while. Is there, I mean, there's got to be a few 15 games seasons where he just didn't play the final week. It's just a stat I like. It's just a hot staff. That was like probably when Randy Moss was still playing. The Carolina Panthers at 5 and 11 last year, they will round out this divisional breakdown and they bring in a brand new quarterback.

Goodbye Cam Newton. Hello, Teddy Bridgewater, who was, you know, very admirable in his filling in for Drew Brees last year. The Cam Newton and Greg Olson, that tandem is, they're both gone. Robbie Anderson comes in from years and years of disappointing us potential versus output in New York. And you get a new head coach. I mean, there's just a lot of change here. Matt Rule, Matt Jai Rule.

murder. I mean, he's coming off of really successful college career. Yeah, with zero counts of murder, by the way, in his criminal record. Replacing Ron Rivera, great head coach at Baylor, bringing in a new system, which, I mean, it's interesting because when you look at what the landscape is for this off season, you know, Jason just talked about it. It's a very truncated time period. You don't even get to go out and like,

I remember last season when Cliff Kingsbury and Arizona came out in the preseason, it was like he showed a little bit, but not a lot, and he tried to work some systems in, and it still took the team. Look at Arizona as the template here. You know, it took the team a while to figure out that system and get to where they were changing those offensive numbers and running more plays. And so it concerns me from a predictability standpoint for Carolina to be in the division that they're in. I think we would all agree that, you know, the other.

I mean, do you have them at the bottom? Oh, yeah. Or do you have Atlanta at the bottom? I think they're at the bottom. I have Carolina at the bottom. No defense has more turnover than the Panthers. They literally drafted their defense this year. Their entire draft was on the defensive side of the ball. I love that they project to have a poor defense. And when you look at Matt Ruhl, he's, he has turned.