Draft Fallers + Combine Buzz, New Offenses - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/27

Saw that crazy stat about Kyler Murray. He's 84% passer between the hashes, middle of the field. Completion percent. Yeah, 84% passer. Number one in the NFL towards the interior of the field. Tray McBride, Mike, you brought it up. That's a lot. That's his own. It's a lot of why. And I think I think that's it by way of news, unless you guys had anything else that popped up, Mr. Watch alerts over there. I will keep looking. at all times to break news. Okay. Thank you. Coaching Carousel. All right. Well, the revolving door of head coaches, offensive coordinators every year makes a big impact on fantasy football production. Last episode, we talked about the seven teams with head coaching and OC changes happening. Bears, Cowboys, Jags, Raiders, Patriots, Saints, and Jets. Today we will kind of conclude that discussion and talk about teams with offensive coordinator changes only.

That would be the Browns, Lions, Texans, Eagles, 49ers, Seahawks, and Buccaneers. So I don't know if you want to go through them one by one or if there's one or two names on there that stand out to you. But I think we could start with Detroit. We could talk about Detroit losing. I think that's the big story. Ben Johnson, because you're talking about the team with the number one, the number one scoring offense and points per game, number two in yards per game. I mean, I could read through all the metrics. They're top five and basically everything on the offensive side of the football. And Ben Johnson took his assistant as well over with him. So they're losing a lot from an offensive coaching standpoint. And they're bringing in John Morton, who is coming over. He worked with the Lions a couple of years ago. 2022. And so then he, you know, upgraded and changed teams, went to the Broncos, worked with Sean Peyton for a couple of years.

And now after losing your two top offensive coaches, they have brought this man back. I mean, I think all of us would look at the offense and probably expect some sort of regression, even small of Ben Johnson was back just because they were. It's hard to stay at the tippy top, although we would have a lot of confidence in them. How do you feel about this move, Mike, with Morton taking over the consistency of offensive weapons, right? You're not rebuilding. from the ground up on all your pieces and offensive system. Yeah, I mean, you have, you should have a strong foundation, but I think there should be concerns. Like, Amun Ra, that's fine. I'm a big Jameson fan. Like, this doesn't worry you at all for Jameson Williams. I mean, I guess this theoretically could be better for Jameson Williams of like if they get him more.

involved in the target sheriff because they already had Ben Johnson already had his ways. I think it's more about whether you believe this team for fantasy purposes. I don't care if they're number one. But is this a team that could potentially drop out of the top 10 in terms of offensive efficiency, effectiveness, scoring? I don't think that's going to happen in Detroit under Dan Campbell's watch. I don't think so. But it's like the David Montgomery would be the biggest question mark for me. I do think his role could diminish. Yeah, does his role diminish a little bit, especially with how good the team looks when it's Justimir Gibbs. But on top of that, if they're not going to score, I think they scored like 50-something touchdowns this year. If you're not going to do that, that's where Montgomery takes the hit. That's his superpower. Yeah. David Montgomery is great for fantasy football because he gets a touchdown every game. Every single game he gets a touchdown. And so if you, you know, if you're going to end up losing 10, 12 touchdowns over the course of the season, which is realistic.

I would agree with you. That's the player that needs to be the scariest as far as redrafting them the way that we did last year. Oh, I mean, I'm sorry. So it was 70 total. I'm looking on NFL.com right now. 70 total touchdowns for the Detroit lines in 2024. And that number was, let me get 2023 real quick. That was 58 in 23. Yeah, I mean, I look at this offense the way I would look at Tampa Bay, like what they did last year, losing Dave Canales, the name that everybody wanted, and their offense pretty much hummed along because you have consistency and strength at the quarterback position, you know, the head coach. You know, we talked about how you lose your offensive coordinators when they do well, but I am not as worried, I guess. I can see the Monty argument, but that one is also, that one's there in general to me because of.

Gibbs entering his prime, he showed he could handle a full workload, what he brings to the table on the offensive side and Monty's injuries. I would have been a little bit heavier Gibbs anyways than Monty. This is a great offense, but I do think it will take a hit. The same way that we saw a couple years ago, the Philadelphia Eagles, who, you know, when they lost. their offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and their Super Bowl run three years ago, they go to the next season. It's like, well, they still have a great offensive line. They still have Jalen Hertz. They still have A.J. Brown and Devante Smith. And then the second half of that season, the wheels really fell off offensively for them. And then they replaced coordinators again. So it, it. So there's two case studies then. Yeah. I mean, Tampa Bay is an example of an offense that even improved. Sure. Yeah. I mean, I think they added.

Right, and I think part of that is because they added weapons. The first half of the season, they had Chris Godwin back and healthy, and then Bucky Irving was added to the offense. So we'll have to look at the personnel moves and what they do in the offseason. But they're not going to be bad. Even that season, that downseason for the Eagles, Jalen Hertz was still a top quarterback. A.J. Brown was still a top wide receiver. Devonte Smith took a little bit of a hit the second half of the year. I think it's correct to just say that the player you're most worried about is the most touchdown reliant player. Monty right now is the lowest of the five, not unsurprising in... No, he should be. Of their core five fantasy options, especially an underdog, but Gibbs, Alman Ra, Jameson, Leporta, and Monty. You know, Monty being a pick behind Leporta already. That'll be an interesting one to watch. Another team with a lot of...

fantasy relevant talent that changed offensive coordinators, Houston. This one is, you know, Houston, Nick Cayley, 42 years old coming over from the Rams. You like the sound of that. Bobby Solwick driving everyone crazy last year after being a darling during the first year of C.J. Stroud. But this was a team just to give you a lay of the land, 19th and points per game, right? They passed, they were top 10 in passing percentage. So they. They put it into the hands of their quarterback. Now, they lost Defon Diggs. They lost Tank Dell. They didn't get production outside of Nico Collins, who was hurt. So I think it's interesting with the offensive coordinator change, with how bad they were as an offense, you know, was this a perfect brew of just a bad year with all of that mixing together? You also factor in, you know, the Houston Texans, their final offensive line grade from PFF was,

29th. So, and not that, I mean, the Bengals. It felt like it. The Bengals are 30th. So it's not that a quarterback behind a terrible offensive line can't succeed. It is just certainly harder. And C.J. Stroud has all the accolades we were wanting to give him heading into year two. He's not where Joe Burrow is at this point of his career. So it's just, it's, I think that the, the line was the bigger problem for me and just the, I mean, the crazy success rate that C.J. Stroud had is rookie year going down the field. That was going to regress, but it went to a place where we didn't dare project because it would be too sad to project that much of a regression. So I think that it comes down to that. They got some young guys on the line. Can they actually improve? They did not last year. But can we have an offseason and a new coordinator figure out what to do with the talent?

I'm excited for the change. You know, C.J. Stroud is a talented quarterback, and they wasted so many second downs last year. It was frustrating to watch. Second and long, hand the ball to Joe Mixing. Second longer, hand the ball to Joe Mixing. What are you doing? I mean, the second down, they were 28th. A lot of wasted plays there. They were dead last and play success right on second downs, the second half of the year. This is, and that kind of crushed them. It just killed drives. So. Play calling wise, we don't know that it's an upgrade. It could be a downgrade, but I'm just happy that they're being proactive and that they looked back at the season and said unacceptable. Yeah, they had the five weeks with Dell, Collins, and Diggs together. Those were weeks in which Mixing was also very good before he got hurt. Then you had Nico sideline with the hamstring. Then you lost Diggs to an ACL in week eight. Then you lost Tank Dell to the knee injury in December.

and you never had any type of play calling that wasn't predictable, that was able to overcome the injuries. I think there's a lot to be excited about. I agree. This team needs to make a splash at wide receiver, though. They got to do something. Oh, yeah, you do. It might be in the draft. But you definitely. They went from a position where some people wanted to make them the best trio in football to Nico Collins standing alone. at the end of the street. The Eagles, new offensive coordinator again. And they did what they did. Price of success. Yeah, they did what they did the last time, which is they hired not the previous last time, but the last time they went to the Super Bowl and lost their offensive and defensive coordinators. They hired from within. It didn't work last time. Hopefully it works this time. I mean, you just, you can't know. We don't have any knowledge on, you know, even what his role was. So I don't know.

I just, you've got to view it kind of as same old, same old for next year so long as the tush push is allowed. Well, and if you break it down player by player like we did with the Lions, who would you be more or less concerned with? Sequin had a pretty special season, right? He's going to be drafted as high as you can draft somebody in fantasy and had a prolific 2,000 yard type of season with a lot of touchdowns from a distance, right? So I look at Seekwon and say, look, nobody in the right mind should doubt him.

but you could also look at the numbers and say, like, you don't do that every year. Right. And if you change the offense, there are ways to see how it goes. You could regress a little bit proportion to where he's drafted. Yeah, I mean, he wasn't involved in the passing game a lot and had a ton of touchdowns to 2,000 rushing yards. That's very difficult to repeat that. The change of offensive coordinator could hurt. This is the first head coach, Nick Siriani, to have four different OCs and a four season span for one team. And two Super Bowl. appearances one ring on the finger so i yeah the price like you said the price of success yeah some of these i you know i don't know how much it really has an impact like san francisco 49ers they've got they got one of the coob brothers um there's two two new cubes uh at o c this year this would be the cubiacs right yes so they got clay clay almost made me say you almost made me say cubiac cubiac because you're not three of them well there are three brothers but there's only they're cubed

Oh my goodness. Wait, there's three brothers? There are. There are three brothers. One, I believe, is a scout for the Dallas Cowboys. Clint Clay and Klein? Is that who you're talking about? Yeah, he's a scout for the Dallas Cowboys. Clint? We got a real Kardashian situation going on here. Clint Klein and Clay, all with a K. No. Clay Kubiak is the offensive coordinator. They're all with a K. For the 49ers. Yes, it's Kardashian. Clint Kubiak is the offensive coordinator. That was with the Broncos at one point in time. Hmm. Okay. Yeah. Personally, I would have spelled one with a C. You choose you. But, yeah, so Clay and. Klein is the one with the, uh, the Cowboys. Yeah. So, um, you've got, uh, and then Gary. You know what I mean? Like, that's the, the dad. The dad is just, there's no.

There's no K there. So they've been famous for their run scheme. The Kubiak run scheme has always been great, which is really the Shanahan run scheme. It's succeeded most places that they've gone to. For the 49ers, it's mostly irrelevant. I think it's an upgrade for them. It's nice for them to have someone in house, but they haven't even had an OC since McDonald's left. This is simply adding another person to help with scheme and planning. Wait, since who left? McDonald's. McDonald's. Mike McDonald. Mike McDaniel. Now you got me doing it. See what? That's what I thought. Mike, that's the plan. He is ruining this name. Yes, I know. Anyway, since he's been gone, they haven't had an offensive coordinator. You can't just call everybody McDonald's. You know that, right? I only call one man McDonald's. No, you call many people McDonald's. I only call the head coach of the Miami Dolphins McDonald's. So wait, you call McDaniels McDonald's. But then McDonald's in Seattle is just McDonald's.

Yeah, because he's not plural. So there's a, okay. We do, we do a little too much, we do a little too much with names. I'm going to go out there and say that. Nicknames. How dare you? The Kubiaks. Yeah. The Cubiacs. They, they did too much. That's on. Sorry, Clay Kubiak. So Clay is added. He's going to fall back behind Shanahan. Added to the 49ers. Clint. I think he can help their offense, but he's not going to like drastically change it because that's Shanahan's offense. But Clint is a massive change. This is, you know, we talked about the run scheme and what he can bring to the table. The Seattle Seahawks won 10 games, and they made a shift. They've got a defensive-minded head coach. I think they want to run the ball a little bit more. If you look last season, they were number five in passing percentage, number 28 in rushing percentage. So like that college itch, that college game that, you know, they brought in as their former O.C. Ryan Grubb.

I think they just passed too much for the liking of a defensive-minded head coach. So now you bring in a Kubiak who has a great run scheme. I think this is great news for Kenneth Walker. I am in agreement. And, you know, maybe not so great news for like DK Metcalf, you know, aging coming off of a down season. Like Metcalf, you, it is tough. Like volume wise, yes. But it's like, can we get Metcalf back to where? he was thriving where he's like he's an efficiency big play type of a player. Yeah, I guess I've grown a little fatigued on relying on offensive coaching or offensive changes to make me excited about Ken Walker. I think the only thing that can stop Ken Walker is Ken Walker. Yes, that has been the case. It's going to be soft tissue. He is, oh, he's great at it. Yeah, he's willing to stop himself. Yeah, frequently. A great season.

So, yeah, they didn't like the Grub experience. 20th and points per game. Metcalf's regression. We'll see if Tyler Lockett's back. If he is, it'll be on the contract adjustment. The verbiage has not been strong on that. Tampa's doing it again and really proud to let you all know out there. This is the Shining Gem. I said it's names, man. This is the name show. Josh Grizzard. The Gris. Jay Grizz himself. I don't make this up, man. And you know what? He's 34 years old. He's way too young for the job. But the team, they did it because they knew we needed Jay Gris to be an office coordinator. It gets better, Andy. Josh Grizzar. Tell me more. Was born in Lizard, North Carolina. We got Josh Grizzard from Lizard. Wait, he's a grizzles? He's the grizzler.

The Grizzler. From Lizard Lick. The Grizzler from Lizard. Hi, I'm, what's your name? Josh Grizzard. Where were you from? Lizard. Lizard Lick. I'm the Grizzard from Lizard Lick. This is prime offseason content. Yeah, this is good stuff. I'm looking at Ducers Alley. They love every minute of this. This is what you're here for. Who's not loving hearing about Josh Grizzard from Lizard Lake? So they went from Duval. From Duval to Lizard Lick, baby. Uh, it's, it's a lot of fun. It's not like we don't have lizard drops. Oh, we do. I mean, we've, we got cold blood. It's not like we haven't been around the, he can't be the lizard. We haven't been around the block. He's from there. I don't know, man. I think, I think if you're from lizard lick and you become the offensive coordinator of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, you are now the king of lizard lick. Well, that I can agree with. Well, wouldn't that make him the lizard king? Oh, no, hold on. Wait.

I'm trying to get some popular. Kyle, I need a population deep dive on lizard lick. It is an unincorporated town. What does that mean? Can we do that? What do you mean? Do you like, do you like the hire? Baker Mayfield gets the deal with another OC. He proved he could do it. Fourth and points per game after losing Canales. Third and yards per game. This is one of the reasons why I don't know if I believe in Liam Cohen. Genuinely. It's just because. sometimes i've got some reasons i don't believe in him uh sometimes thank you you just come into the right situation right adam gaze yeah and sometimes you have like how do you know but who would have thought that the right situation was baker mayfield in 2025 well i mean i don't know i would say the people that watched him play the year before why did dave canals get a job

The nice thing here about Josh Grizzard replacing Liam Cohen, it's in-house, they know the system, it's also the third change. It's like the 800th change in 800 years for Baker Mayfield. He is very used to that. I don't think I will look at this offensive coordinator change at all with any predictability or any change in how I would view the players on the roster. Yeah. So, I mean, by the way, unofficial population of lizard lick is 1,300 people. Also, there's not a lot of people that come from the lizard. You rule over 1,300 people and say it's not a lot. Yeah, well, I guess making them all happy. In March 1998, the small town received publicity when Nintendo first released the Nintendo 64 game Yoshi's story there with the name of the host town reflecting the Nintendo character, Yoshi's ability to extend his tongue over a long distance. Thank you.

What is happening? This was a top five quarterback, top 15 running back, top 12 wide receiver offense. I am. It was a great offense. Done talking about Baker Mayfield. That's all lizard lick from here on out. If I was Jay Gris, Josh Grizzard is his real name. If I was Josh Grizzard, I would come in and do as little as possible to change anything. Oh, yeah. Oh, I would just, yeah, to be cash and checks. Just cash and checks. He is going to have to. call plays that is the one the one thing that is concerning or or uplifting for the Liam coincide is simply that because it's a defensive head coach you're another play caller so there you go all right we'll take a break we'll do some mailbag before you get into the mailbag oh okay so you better be reporting on this

I don't think I'm reporting on whatever it is you think because I have no idea what you think. I'm just saying we did not mention that the Browns also got a new offensive coordinator. Oh, get out of here. Tommy Reese replacing Ken Dorsey, but it's really Stefansky. He's going to call the plays now. So it's reverting back to what it used to be. I meant Brooks told us there's a band called King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard. Now let me ask you this. Who's the lead singer? Because I swear I'm going to freak out if you tell me it's Josh Grizzard.

I don't know. I will freak out. I can't confirm nor deny it. You're going to freak out? If it's Josh Grizzard, wow. I think they would be. That would be King Grizzard, not King Gizzard. Okay. Goodbye, everybody. No, we got some mailbag. Mailbag. See, I don't know what's more disturbing. The fact that that name exists as a band or the fact that Brooks knows that it exists. Brooks, did you know them or did you just? stumble into them. Yeah, say hi, Brooks, by the way. The people, they need to hear from Brooks. Oh, are you on the space station? I don't care if he's on the space station. Hey, everybody. Yeah. Still on another planet. Sounds a lot closer, though. He might be in Australia with King Gizzard and the Lizard Wizard. All right, first question coming in from Lewis on Instagram. Which players do you estimate to have the biggest drop in ADP this year?

So, you know, I saw this earlier in the name I was going to bring up. We just talked about him. But I think D.K. Metcalf will take a tumble. He's getting older. I think people will be less excited about this offense and more excited about the JSN portion of it. Yeah. So he is a player that I think next year will be significantly lower than where he was this season. Kelsey? Oh, yeah. Pitman. Oh, man. Do you? Do you even draft Michael Pittman? Those are a couple of names. Monty might end up losing some ground. Trying to think of some other Marvel drop. Tony Pollard compared to last year. I feel like that name, unless you're really intentional about talking about it. Pollard had a good year. I bet there's no one that won a championship with him on the roster. My memory, Tony Pollard was the RB 22. Like the whole.

The whole first half. I mean, if people don't want to draft Tony Pollard, that's great. I'll draft him. I know where a player has fallen, at least an underdog offseason drafts, Kyron Williams. I don't understand it. He's like the 35th. We don't want to believe in Kyron ever. Dude, I will. I am fully in. If Kyron stays anywhere remotely close to that. Now is Underdog? Yeah. Yeah. I think when we brought him up the other day, he just doesn't profile on underdog the way he. He'll be a first round pick. You know what I mean? In redraft? When we did our little first round mock, he was, right? He was in, yeah, I think he was because of me. Well, you don't know. Could have been, could have, if you passed on it, maybe we would have taken him. Fair. All right. We did not report on any Mark Andrews news, but there have been rumblings from everywhere. Yeah. Instagram question from Nathan wants to know after the roller coaster season, which it was. What do we do with Mark Andrews in Dynasty?

basically disappeared, then reappeared. Yeah. Scored a bunch of touchdowns. I don't think it was a great fantasy experience, but if you did stick with him and you had him and you could play him down the stretch, you were fine. What do you do with him in Dynasty? Jason, you're a dynasty manager of Mark Andrews. I am. I think you just have to hold him and keep rolling him out there. This is the type of player where you're going to hold until the end. I don't believe you're going to get a lot for him. Yeah, I agree. And if you're not going to get a lot for him, he's going to score touchdowns. And even if he is traded because, you know, there's rumblings or goes to a different team, he's going to get a lot of touchdowns.

Unfortunately, that's, you know, not what you'd love to bank on. You'd love to say, oh, he's getting 150 targets and I can have consistency every week. But he's, you know, he was the tight end five this year. And that's despite the first month of the season, basically not playing football it looked like. I mean, at least two gooses within that stretch. So he hasn't not aged out of tight end, you know, tight ends. You can be 33, 34, 32. He's 29. Not this one, though, I don't think. Oh, I, that was going to be the next question. I don't think this one. He is, he's aging differently to me. This is not the same explosive player that, like we saw Kelsey maintain a level of performance consistently through this age. Mark Andrews did not look like the same player to me last year at all. He's still going to be a red zone threat, but he didn't look the same. You can't disappear for that many games. Yeah, I mean, I, I, I.

And here's a quote from the Ravens General Manager that you can comment on as well. He'll be in our Ring of Honor someday. We'll figure it all out on the roster. Ooh, that's a new word. Machinations, machinations? Machinations? Yeah, machinations. Over the coming weeks, but there's no bigger Mark Andrews fan than me. He's been a blessing to have on the team. There was another comment earlier in the week insinuating maybe they were saying goodbye. But go ahead. Yeah, I mean, I want to go back and look at some late season film because I don't remember him slowing down. Now, I definitely, obviously for fantasy football purposes, he slowed down. The targets weren't there. Isaiah likely stepped up. Say flowers got better. They started, you know, Bateman all of a sudden was an important part of the offense. So schematically, I don't think he is as important. You know, it used to be basically him as the primary target where he's getting, you know, 154 targets in a season.

Whereas last year he had 69 targets. I don't know, like, I don't think he lost it. I just don't think they needed him the same way. Targets are earned, my brother. I agree targets are earned, but this is also an offense that was, you know. They needed him. They didn't, I mean, they needed him to catch the overtime tying pass, sure, but they didn't. What do you think is more likely, though? I mean, like, Rashad Bateman's been there. for a while. Why wasn't he a bigger focal point in previous years? Well, Sean Bateman's been injured in all the previous years. Isaiah likely was coming into year two. And obviously, Mark Andrews is not getting faster and younger as he gets older. My point is, you know, Lamar Jackson threw, what, what do you throw? Like 40 touchdowns? 41 touchdowns. So this was an offense. It was just humming. And they were humming with wherever Lamar wanted to go.