Early 2018 Breakouts, Top Handcuffs, Juliaaaaan!!!

in the fantasy playoffs, the bills and the Packers. He has a league high seven matchups with bottom six opponents against the run. Nobody seems to want to touch him. He's still an over-four career runner. He was, like I said, up at 4.8 in 2016. He also is a capable pass-catching running back, which is going to give you some baseline value in fantasy football, even if the team is much like the Browns were last year, not always in the position to use the first and second down running back, 40 receptions back in 2016.

Crowell was signed to be the running back there in New York. And I know they have Bilal Pal. Yes. And I know he'll fill a role. But Bilal Pal has always filled that role of utility back and inevitable fill-in for Matt Forte. I mean, that's kind of been what the situation was there. There's a lot of confidence in Crowell from Todd Bowles. I think he represents one of those guys that, you know, when we were doing a mock draft a couple weeks ago.

You get towards the later rounds and all of a sudden you still see starting running backs on the board. And Coral is talented enough, young enough, to still be a breakout candidate to me. So I'm going to bring his name up here on the show and say, hey, look, you might steal him at the back of the seventh round. I actually really like Crowell's value. I mean, you talk, oftentimes we talk about a post-hyped sleeper. That's a guy that he had hype last year. And because he disappointed on that hype, he just gets just destroyed in average trappism. That's Coral. And now he is a starter.

and Matt Forte vacated a lot of quality production over the last two years. So I don't hate it. Can he get two years worth of production, though, in this one year? I'm saying in the last two years on a per game basis, Matt Forte had a lot of fantasy value. All right. Oh, am I up? I think you're up, Jason. Back to me already. All right. Well, let's keep it at the running back position. Here's a guy that I think is, he appears on a lot of breakout lists. And I think for good. Makes sense.

for good reason. He's a guy that was supposed to break into the league last year and failed in Joe. He didn't quite make it in? Yeah, Joe Mixon disappointed just about everyone last year. And there's a couple of reasons for that that I think are, some are surprising, right? You watch the film and you go, man, he looked so much better in college, and he was great. You know, Graham Barfield, he's got his yards created. In history, the best yards created.

per attempt still belongs to Joe Mixon, ahead of Zeke, ahead of Sequin, ahead of Leonard Fournette. He was unbelievably good. And I think that his talent is there, but you have to keep in mind. He went to a team that one of our worries last year, we said this a lot going into the season, was, you're playing for Stinking Marvin Lewis, and he hates rookies. And it was week nine before he was actually able to start a game, which is...

Ridiculous. And a lot's been made about the inefficiencies of Joe Mixen last year, about his yards per carry being terrible. Look, the first eight weeks when he wasn't a starter, he averaged yucky 2.9 yards per carry. Yucky? I mean, there's just no other word other than yucky. It did taste bad. What about icky? Guess there's a couple words. But once he became the starter in week nine.

From then on out the rest of the season, he averaged 4.28 yards per carry, which is absolutely fine. In fact, he only had one game where he wasn't above four yards per carry during that stretch. Their offensive line was just a train wreck last year. They've done a little bit to help get that better. You know what's interesting about the offensive line coach? I don't know if you guys were aware of this, a listener and I were talking about it.

Frank Pollock is the new offensive line coach in Cincinnati. He's the Cowboys. He was the Cowboys offensive line coach. And we know how we feel about the offensive line performance in Dallas. The irony, though, is Dallas now has the Cincinnati offensive line coach. And this is why Zeke is so low in your ring. No, that is not why. No, I will say this, though. Offensive line coach is one of those super undervalued. I mean.

Not every coach makes a big difference, but an offensive line coach does. And so that's a great nugget. You also have things like Duke Tobin saying, and that's the Bengals director of player personnel, saying that he's going to be our bell cow running back. He said that at the con line. Right. Some of that hype. But he's going to start week one as the starter. He's going to be the bell cow. He was great and prolific in.

in college. He was a great pass catcher last year. At the end of last year, he figured it out. So I think he has a great breakout potential. If he finishes the year as a top five running back, I won't be surprised. Okay. That's high praise. Mike, and now see, Joe Mixing, I think we're all on board with his breakout potential. Yep. I know we're all on board with this next guy. Jerich McKinnon, you're probably wondering, are we in on that high train? Did we buy first class tickets?

All and you know what? All aboard. We're all aboard. If you look at Jared McKinnon's Dynasty ADP. Oh, it's ridiculous. From two years ago. Ridiculous. To now. It's incredible because he had all been given up on. Because, and honestly, he should have been given up. He has been given some opportunities in Minnesota, never fully came through.

I said, I'm going to be a three-down back in this league. And we, oh, ha, ha, Jared McKinnon. Oh, Derek. There's no place in the NFL that has a three-down roll for you. And San Francisco said, here's $12 million for this year. He's going to make $12 million this year. Now, granted, San Francisco has the money, and they could have just been front-loading the contract to, this is their way to protect themselves against McKinnon long term.

But they still were giving him $12 million this year. Last year, San Francisco had the third highest... He's got 750,000 reasons per game to have a big year. San Francisco, third highest target share to the running back position. They were featuring Carlos Hyde, who is... I love Carlos Hyde? I do, I do. But he's not an elite pass catcher. What is he again? Yeah, as a pass catcher. I would say he's... Not.

average. Okay. If you want to say he's a below average pass, that's fine. They still force fed him 88 targets. The dude had six drops and they still kept giving him targets. Carlos had had 299 touches last year. Was the running back nine on the season? Jerich McKinnon in the passing game this past year, 51 receptions, 421 yards. Here's the depth chart for San Francisco. Yeah, this is the best case. $12 million,

undrafted Matt Marita, and then the table pounder Joe Williams from the fourth round who sat on the IR the entire last year. It's Jerich McKinnon robust for the San Francisco 49ers. Is that a wise decision? I don't know, but you heard Jason said earlier. Talent, opportunity, greater than talent and fantasy football. And I don't know of anyone's opportunity who improved.

so rapidly more than Jerich McKinnon. There is not, look, it's not Terrence West situation either, where it's just opportunity, but you also know that he's not going to catch the ball like McKinnon can, and you also don't believe that he can break a long play. I mean, McKinnon can make up a lot of ground on your week in one play, the way that C.J. Spiller used to do when he was occasionally relevant for fantasy football. He's a big play type of guy out of the backfield, especially with a coach that can get him into that position.

I think we're all on board with Jared McKinn and the opportunity and talent and age and money and all those things add up. I also like piggybacking on that with my, the final breakout here because I kind of see them in the same vein. Sammy Watkins. Look, when you've moved. This is a great move. Sammy Watkins, Struther is over here just smirking. He's grinning like he just finished a quarter pounder. I mean.

You are just content over there. I'm just rubbing your belly. I'm just going to sit back and listen. Just listen. Sammy Watkins is a player like McKinnon that, look, the ship has sailed mentally for a lot of fantasy owners. We have moved on. And you know where we've moved to? Tyreek Hill at 303 in the draft instead of Sammy Watkins. It's 702 in PPR League. But Sammy Watkins just collected a $48 million contract extension.

from Andy Reid. $48 million. There's no established rapport in that offense between Mahomes and one receiver or another. The reports around camp, yes, they're hype. Sammy Watkins owns hype.com, the domain name. That's his. He bought it. That's a very valuable domain. He bought it a long time ago. But here's what I like about him. Last year, he played all X. That's what he played. All the X position in that offense.

Andy Reid came out and said we're moving him all over the place in the offense. He's handling it. We're overloading him with moving him around. He's going to be playing in a very smart offense. Not that he wasn't last year, but he wasn't being moved around in the offense. And he's going to be a real weapon for Kansas City from the beginning of the season. Yes, health issues. Yes, consistency issues. In spite of all the problems of Sammy Watkins.

Listen to this, and this came in from BJ Kessel, the beat reporter for the Chiefs. Since 2014, Sammy Watkins is the only wide receiver in the NFL to have at least 25 touchdowns and an average of at least 15 yards per catch. That's a unique skill set. That's a unique ability. It's just a matter of having consistency in involvement in the offense and targets. You know a player is talented when they're not used, but they still score a bunch.

That's what Sammy Watkins was last year. The targets weren't there. He still made an impact on that roster, and now you have a rocket-armed Mahomes, and he's 25 years old. Yeah, the 15 yards per reception average since 2014 shows a great pairing for Pat Mahomes' arm and his ability to get the ball downfield in the air. The Warriors' offense over there. You got from deep.

I heard Travis Kelsey the other day on Dan Patrick, and he asked about catching, like, what happens when Pat Mahomes puts some zip on it? How is it? And he responded with one word. Did you guys hear this? No, he said, he goes, what is that like? And his word was shocking. That's Travis Kelsey saying that he was shocked by the power from Pat Mahomes. Yeah. So I think Sammy Watkins is a breakout candidate because eighth round pick.

First round body. I think wide receiver, top 15 wide receivers is not an impossibility with him. There's no, like, Tyree kills still your odds on favorite to have a higher fantasy total. No reason why Sammy Watkins can't be that. And I've been saying that all offseason, that there's still a percentage chance that Sammy Watkins is the guy. I love it. I love it, Andy. I mean, he probably won't be. Yeah, he probably won't be hurt. But let's talk mailbag. Mailbag. Mailbag.

I thought you were going up, but you stayed down. The mailbag. It's time to answer questions from the listeners. We love helping you win your league. You can submit your question on our website, the fantasy footballers.com or if you have a telephone, you can dial the voicemail hotline, 302464 TFFB. Also, it's 2018. Why do you have a telephone? They're getting you on those feasts. That combo package is nonsense. Get a cell phone. Grab the rotary.

Grab the rotary, dial in, and you can leave a voicemail question. Get me in the footballers. Like this one. Hey, ballers, what up? This is Cody from California. I was curious. Do you think there is any disadvantage to mock drafting with people that are in your league frequently, as in will they maybe pick up on your tendencies, or do you have strategies that it could benefit you? Curious what you guys think about this. Hey, Cody in California. This is Andy in Arizona. Yeah, it is. We do this. We draft like this. It just depends how much you want to be a liar.

Right. Yeah. I mean, that's all it is. Yeah. I draft with you guys all the time over the last few years. We'll mock, you know, our upcoming, whatever. I've done it with other players in our league. And look, a very easy pro. This isn't even like a pro tip. This is just a street smart tip. When you get to your pick, pick someone you don't want. I mean, not someone you hate. Just pick a guy you know.

Don't pick the guy you're going to pick if you're on the board right there. That's all you got to do. You made it very simple, Jay. Just don't pick the guy you're actually going to pick. Right, but then's going to change between now and then too. So I don't think you're in a lot of danger. But then isn't everyone else picking players that they're not going to pick? Everyone else. Here's one of the things that I've learned over the last couple years. It's an exercise in futility. Don't do it with everybody. You drop with a couple. Pick a couple guys from your league and pretend like you're the other owners and then you get a little bit of a lay of the land. And one of the things I've learned over.

you know, the last, I would say, decade, is that there are, I mean, so many more stupid people than you think. So I think that you can draft and you can be the smart guy not picking the guy you're going to pick on draft day, and you've got a good chance to see who they're going to pick. And the reality is, what Andy said, if you're only picking, let's say you've got two other guys from your league, well, when they're assigned other teams, you know, if they're drafting for other teams as well, they're going to make good picks there.