The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs in 2018, Part 1

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Art Rooney, Steelers owner, opened to trading Antonio Brown, said it was hard to envision him being with the team in 2019. The team hasn't spoken with him since the end of the season. This is not going the direction of staying with Pittsburgh. That escalated quickly. That's bad news for Antonio Brown. I could just tell you as a dynasty owner. It's just... It's not good. No. There's no situation. I looked at it like, I can't think of one. Not one single situation.

where I don't think he takes a slight step backwards for fantasy. He will. Even if he went to New England, he's a step backwards. Yeah, everywhere. There's no place he could go where he's going to produce at the level he's been doing. Yeah, no doubt about it. So bad news for dynasty owners of Antonio Brown. And I almost, if he's traded, Juju's going ahead of him in this next draft. If he's not traded, I'll bet Juju. Oh, you're saying redraft. Yeah. Yeah.

that was today's news and notes with fantasy football ramping down remember now's the time to ask you commission if you're using the right platform check out sleeper the sleeper platform all right uh without further ado now i do want to remind you if you've won a title i thought it was without further ado well i saw a note in here and i just wanted to remind people this is some ado uh if you won go to fancychamps dot com get your trophies get your rings whatever your hardware

Needs are they laser engrave onto metal placards. It's better quality. And you use the promo code ballers. It's all I need to say. You want answers. I think I'm entitled. You want answers. I want the truth. Can't handle the truth. You can't handle it. It's true. Do you understand? Let's do it. Let's get into it. Half point per reception breakdown of the wide receiver position. There'll be two shows about the wide outs. We'll get through as many today as makes sense.

without missing anything. And we want to break them down. And here's what we look at. We look at how many great games, how many good games, how many bust games through the fantasy season each and every one of these players gave you so that you have an understanding not only of where they finished, but of where their consistency level was and what you could expect week to week, right? Absolutely. And we need to find that. We've taken a look at what do these...

What do these players usually score? It's on average. So for a great game, it's more than 22 points. And on average, that puts you at least in the top five for the position at the wide receiver. A good game, it's more than 10 points. And a bus game is if you have fewer than seven points, that puts you outside of the top 50. And these are in half point PPR scoring. All right, let's start right there at the top. Tyreek Hill finished.

as the number one fantasy football wide receiver in half-point leagues with a 16-game finishing stat line of 87 receptions for 1,479 yards and 12 touchdowns. On 137 targets, added another 151 yards in the ground in a rushing touchdown and one return touchdown. Now, Tyree Kill has proven that sometimes those off-season discussions, when you talk about changing a player's M.O.

You know, all of the special teams, big play touchdowns in years past. We saw last year the evolution of Tyreek Hill. He only continued it this season. Look, what more can you say about the evolution of him as a player? His speed and then his ascension as a route runner has made him almost unguarded. And then you put Pat Mahomes into the equation. And it's just a matter of health for him to finish in the top five. Yeah, the percentage of bus games for Tyree Kill is actually shocking.

I mean, it's 19% which, look, that's not too bad, considering that 31% of the time he gave you a weak winning type of performance. But when you watch the play, like, how do you possibly ever bust? I mean, like week 13, five and a half points. It just, it defies logic that Tyree kill doesn't go off every single week. And he was limping around in the end of the season, too.

Yes, Tyreek Hill, if you look, he's the number one on the season. According to our, you know, our consistency metrics, he's tied for the 15th. He's not in the top 12. And you saw that. I mean, he is a boom-bust type of player. If it so happens that Travis Kelsey has 103 in a game, they just...

Or it was Karim Hunt a part of the season or Damien Williams, yeah. And then you got to deal with Tyreek Hill's health. So the question is, is he worth consideration among the top three? You know, you talk about usually it's been Antonio Brown and Julio and O'Dell Beckham and those guys, DeAndre Hopkins.

Is Tyree Kill worth, I mean, he's the number one wide receiver, but because he's inconsistent, because he will absolutely win you some games, but he could cost you some games. Is he someone you'd be willing to take in the top five wide receivers? For me, the answer is yes. And that comes down to knowing what he... What are the top three? Probably not. Probably not. Okay. And that just comes down. Look, if you draft Tyreek Hill, you have to know what you're getting. You're getting a player, 31%.

Of his games were great games. He has those absolute monster performances. Week 1, 33, week 6, 35, week 10, 29, week 11, 38, week 17, if you happen to be playing there. 26 points. Look, he scored three times more fantasy points this year than the top whiteout for the 49ers and the top whiteout for the Redskins. He piled up the points.

But you have to know what you're getting with him and therefore draft and position yourself with your wide receiver too to have a better baseline. You cannot combine Tyreek Hill with another guy that has a very high inconsistency. You know, this year maybe you would have struggled if you had Tyreek in someone like Mike Evans with a similar bus percentage, someone in the 20% range. Struggle is probably the wrong word. If you had Tyreek, you didn't really struggle. But look, I...

He's great. And he has the quarterback that you can count on week in and week out to take two or three downfield shots with him. That's what I love. He was plus 7.54 fantasy points.

per game against top 16 defenses. Yeah, so he didn't have a problem or a weakness when it came to playing top defenses or home away. Top corners. He didn't get shut down. He moves around the formation. So we talked about it through the season. He usually. He's a little bit better on the road. He's way better on the road. I mean, and that's going back a couple of years now. So for me, Tyree Kill, he will be in the top three for me, but because the next two guys can give you.

week winning performances as well. And they're just, they're more, they were more consistent this year. And the way that I projected, they will be more consistent than Hill next year. I would take these next two guys first. But Tyree Kill, as right now, will be number three for me. I do not believe Tyree Kill will make my top five. And I absolutely love Tyree Kill. Because you're a hater. I'd be, no, I'd be happy to have him for sure. I think there are a lot of really great wide receivers at, at the top of your drafts right now.

All right, let's move on. Let's talk about number two on this list. DeAndre Hopkins, he had 276 points. He is actually number two in consistency because he put up exactly zero bust games on the season. 75% of his games were good. Now, 38% were great in the great category. So he actually had a higher great game percentage than Tyreek Hill. When you look at the metric of 22 plus, now if you looked at Hill,

at like 30 plus. Right. He's going to win that battle. But DeAndre Hopkins, absolutely dominant. Career high, 115 receptions. Zero drops. Zero Alshonts. Oh. Oh. Now that. Philadelphia just turned off the pond. Yeah. That won't go over well. No, but I kind of feel like I needed one more shot across the bow after the way Twitter reacted to my joke yesterday. Look, Philly, let me level with you.

I picked you before the season to win. The Super Bowl. So really, it's your fault. So, well, perhaps I've reaped him. If a pun joke comes along, I'm going to post it. And no matter how many weird profanities you want to throw my way, I'm still going to post it. I apologize. Alshan's great. Philly's great. They're just out of the playoffs. I can't believe you apologized. It's embarrassing. I don't apologize for the pun. Have a backboat. I love Alshan.

I'll shan to be apologizing. All right, look, what can you say about DeAndre Hopkins? He led the league in Target share in back-to-back seasons. This was something, this is great to reflect on, right? Because last year it was 35% of Target share. And we said, my goodness, there's no way that can't repeat that. And we were right. Yeah, we were right 32% this year. Hey, wins a win.

So what do you guys think about DeAndre? Because when you look at him and the next name on our list, Hint, Devante, Adams, how do you break down deciding between those two players? Look, at the top, everybody has a great quarterback. So that can't be the tiebreaker. Aaron Rogers, Pat Mahomes.

Deshaun Watson, they're all great. It's really about the player themselves. And DeAndre Hopkins, I mean, when you have 115 receptions, no drops, that's ridiculous. You watch him play. He is unguardable because you can you can backpack on him. You can literally just be allowed by the rest to Yoda backpack and he'll still catch that ball. You could put your.

fingers in the in the face mask and gouges eyes and he comes down with the ball i think only 100% of the time though right he's he's maybe the best wide receiver right now in football and so he belongs in the discussion for the number one pick he would he would be my number two

wide receiver as of right now going into next year, but the connection he's got with Watson and his skill, there's really nothing to be sad with. I mean, he had zero busts game. So you want to know what the truth of him finishing as the number two wide receiver is that he was the number two, maybe the number one wide receiver in helping you win fantasy football in redraft leagues. Well, and this guy did it as well, Devante Adams.

15 games, 111 catches, 1,386 yards, 169 targets, and 13 touchdowns. Absolutely dominant. Now, he did not bust either. He had zero bus games, but he had 100% of his games that were good. That were 10 or more points. That is the most amazing stat. We've done this for years. I do not ever remember, not Antonio Brown's great seasons, not Julio's, not Odell Beckham's. I don't remember any wide receiver playing a whole game.

a whole season where you did not have a single game that was below double-digit points. He was... Well, it's not even that. We said a good game is 10 points and above, right? Sure. He didn't have a game under 12th. Yeah, I mean, he was incredible, and he would be my number one wide receiver because I still think there's room to go up. Interesting. I mean, you've got a better offensive mind, I believe, for today's football coming into Green Bay.

And the connection is there with Aaron Rogers as the number one. Aaron Rogers is usually around 40 touchdowns. He wasn't there this year. And Devante Adams has three consecutive seasons of double-digit touchdowns. So you've got, I think the touchdown upside is there, but now you've got the actual volume that has really been missing for Devante Adams of the previous season. You're talking about this year? Yes. The 169 targets. I agree with that. Do you look at that team?

Like, I'm thinking of off-season narratives and maybe one. Look, I give Devante Adams his due times a million. He's been absolutely phenomenal. He was the only player Aaron Rogers could depend on. Now, that was part of the problem in that offense, right? And you bring in, like, he needs other reliable pass-catching targets. He didn't have Jordy. He didn't have Cobb. The rookies, they took turns being consistent and inconsistent. Even Jimmy Graham was nothing what we hoped.