NFC South Breakdown + Sweaty Hot Takes - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/22

For Baker? Because I don't. But it's like, like people are drafting Tyler Conklin in front of K. Don. Yeah, I've done it a million times. I'm, I'm pretty exposed to Tyler Conklin. That one I'm not really opposed to. Really? Yeah, Aaron Rogers. I mean. Okay, but I mean, like, conk, conk also. I want to be able to. Yeah, you remember. I want to be able to do that. Thank you. But I'm saying, like, Uzama is there as well. Yeah. People are taking rookie Luke Musgrave for the Green Bay Packers over Kate Auden. Yeah. Yeah, I wouldn't do that, I guess. You guys are crazy. No, no, no. I think he is, he's sneaky, but he's sneaky in the way that I don't really care that much. Quick break back. Hold on. I want to throw out one name, and this is just this is. Oh, yes. This is the name to monitor. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Is running back Sean Tucker because the dude is good. Like, he is.

a tremendously talented running back, who unfortunately had really bad injury luck right as we were rolling into the draft so that it ended up causing him to go completely undrafted, and he has still hurt right now. But look at what the depth chart is for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers of, we're talking about Rashad White going as running back 27 because he's like, well, he's there. Is he, is Rashad White a good player? I think that's still up in the air. as of right now. And Sean Tucker, can Sean Tucker play? What about Keishon Vaughn, though? But it's, yeah, I mean, like at this point, what year are we in Keishon Vaughn's career, like four? Sounds right. And the guy still hasn't been able to get on the field. So I just want to, I want people to be paying attention to the name of Sean Tucker, see if he gets healthy and starts making some splashes in training camp. Because then.

then you really need to move them on your radar. Keep him in mind. All right, moving on. Quick break, back with the Panthers. All right, Carolina, last year, projected for six wins. This year it's up to seven and a half. They won seven last year. Honestly, very impressive. Very impressive season for Steve Wilkes taking over from Jaw Rule. Matt Ja Rule. It didn't work. The Matt Rule era, 11 and 27. I mean, it worked for his. Bank. Yeah, I mean, he took a Cliff Kingsbury approach to the, I mean, he was much worse, to be fair. I mean, at least Kingsbury made the playoffs. But also had challenges, had Ben McAdoo's offensive coordinator last year. Self-inflicted challenges. Teddy Bridgewater, Cam Newton, Baker, Mayfield, Sam, Donald, PJ Walker. I mean, at the end, it was like I, somebody knew get in there. Every play, he could have been swapping them every play.

This year, Frank Reich takes over. This was not an impressive by the numbers fantasy team last year in terms of points per game, pace of play, total yards, pass attempts, past yards. They were at the bottom. But they were able to run the football last year. They were number one and expected points per rush to temp inside the red zone. The running game in the offensive line at times last year was, to me, must watch television. Because everyone knew. that passing the football wasn't an option. And they imposed their will the way that, like, Seattle used to do it in the past. And I was honestly very impressed. Deonta foreman and, uh, uh, Chuba, both had big games at times. Uh, and then this off season, they, they lost DJ Moore in the trade to go up and get Bryce young. They lost theonta foreman, but they added Miles Sanders. They added Adam Thielen DJ Chark to the wide receiver room, Andy Dalton.

I think a great depth. Depth. Depth. That was a deep fart. I think a great depth. I thought it was doing like a Sylvester impression. That was a full moment of like, did everybody hear what I heard? Yep. That was a please tell me that no one reacts to that. No, no one's going to hear about your depth. Isn't that the best way to describe Andy Dalton though as a depth? Yeah, sure. I mean, he's good depth. Thubber and fuck it, actually. Oh, boy. Happy Saturday. It's hot in here. It's Saturday. It's very warm. I need a Gooch fan. That's number four. Oh, yeah. We got two more. Two more to work here. Let me crank up the Gooch fan. Hayden Hurst as well. And they drafted Bryce Young and Jonathan Mingo. It's a reset on offense. And Frank Reich gives you some confidence that they're going to figure some things out. I am a big Bryce Young fan.

I believe that he will be capable of not a top half offense, but also not 29th in total yards, 29th and pass attempts. Like you're going to need to utilize his arm, his IQ, not just hand the ball off all year long. So I know that rookie quarterbacks traditionally, I mean, there's been four since 2010 that have surpassed 4,000 yards, only three with 25 passing touchdowns. but 3,800 and 23 touchdowns? I mean, I think that's in the cars for Bryce. It's certainly possible. I really do. And so there'll be some production there. Where is it? Where's it going to be? Yeah, that's a big question. I do think that Haydenhurst is a little bit undervalued. Not that I'm calling for Haydenhurst to be a top 12 guy, but.

being drafted in the Cade Otten ranges, I will put it now. I think that he can now produce that. For the wide receivers, it's very difficult because Adam Thielen is the, you usually follow the money. Let the management tell you who they like because of how much they've paid, but there is always a tax for bad teams to lure in players. And Adam Thielen, who is at the tail end of his career to get a three-year $14 million guaranteed. Good for you, man. Yes. Yeah, congratulations to Mr. Thielen. But, I mean, it's hard to look at anything that Thielen has done in the last four years and not say it has declined every single year. And, I mean, you know, yards per catch has four years ago, we were at 13.9, 12 and a half, 10.8, 10.2.

He put up 70 receptions and just over 700 yards with that high-powered Minnesota offense. I know Jefferson is taking a lot of it, but if you're the number two to Justin Jefferson, you should be able to put up some decent numbers. I've got no argument for Adam Thiel and being a consistent force, but I will say he's there for hands in red zone. That's where he's been good. Like the red zone will be where he can contribute. Jonathan Mingo. I like the player a lot. very talented 6-2-220 higher draft capital than expected second round pick Ole Miss should have an early opportunity in this offense and he's somebody in dynasty leagues that maybe you pay attention to now and hopes for the connection to build between him and a rookie quarterback DJ Chark I mean last year was was fine when he had opportunities but I wouldn't expect a lot so the wide receiver room Jason this is a

Well, it's Terrace Marshall's room, right? Oh, boy. Lock job. Don't forget. Terrace Marshall's there. You're right. It's Adam Thielen, I think, as the one, probably Mingo and DJ Chark kind of splitting the next duties to Terrace Marshall's there. And Hayden Hurst will probably be second in the team in targets. So, you know, Bryce Young. If you want to take a bet on Bryce Young because you believe in the talent and you want to see if he scrambles and uses his legs at all in the NFL level and you're not sure where the targets are going to go, but they all count to him. I'm fine with that in best ball. I'm fine with Hayden Hurst and best ball because of how late he is and he should have more targets. I think it's just going to be a really inconsistent offense. If I'm taking a bet on offense here, it's definitely Miles Sanders. Miles Sanders should be the best friend to this rookie.

quarterback. I think that they're going to try to have the running game open things up and make life easier for Bryce Young, run the ball a lot. We saw it last year, Andy, you talked about it, how you knew they were going to run. They still were able to run. This is a great offensive line. I don't know what's going on with. Look, PFF, you do great work. Love your stuff. But these offensive line grades were, was happening. You have last year's Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead of last year's Panthers. I don't know what you are watching. Same with this year's. And this is an offensive line that can move people. So I like Miles Sanders. I think they'll use him more as a three-down back than a lot of other middle-tier running back selections in fantasy. So I'm in on Sanders, and then I'm kind of just letting everything else be fun to watch and not mine for fantasy with this offense.

Quick thought on Sanders. I will mention it because I think we've been all very pro-mile Sanders as a value. He was on a really good offense last year. He had a lot of games where it was 16 opportunities, 18 opportunities, 21, 12, 13, 12, where they were disaster games on a good offense. So he has been extremely hot and cold. He had nothing in the middle range. He was either very good last year or very bad. And I'm just throwing that out there because I... It's a bit on volume. It's a bet on volume, but it's going to be, he's not scoring 11 times probably. Yeah, so here's the thing about what happened last year with Miles Sanders.

He was not throwing the ball. Jalen Hertz is not a, is going to check it down, doesn't throw to the running backs that much, and he was barely using the passing game. And then you get around the goal line, and the number one goal line back in the league was Jalen Hertz. So you did have enough touchdowns. And if you look back at Miles Sanders games where it was like, oh, he had a great game for fantasy, he got the touchdowns that game. And so I am hoping my bet on Miles Sanders isn't just volume, but it's really. almost exclusively about the past catching work. And that's a projection. That's no guarantee. He had 20 catches last year. Let's say you give him 50. Yeah. If you give him 50, which would be his peak, he finishes as a running back what? Top 20. 14. Okay. That's above 80. I don't think he's getting 50. I think it's a little ambitious. I wonder how much Chuba will get worked in. All right. Let's move on. The Saints 7 and 10 last season. Projected win total was 8.

This year it's up to 9.5. Okay. You know, they were not a good offense last season. So there are this, is nine and a half. That's the highest. It's got to be the highest. The Saints are projected. There's the betting favorites. So Jamal Williams, Derek Carr, Foster Moreau, welcome in. Ingram, Landry, Dalton. See you later. Drafted Kendry Miller, who's starting on the inactive list, dealing with an injury. And here we go. Derek Carr, the journey. begins. I have them the highest of the three of us at QB17. I think, you know, nine seasons, believe it or not, in Las Vegas or Oakland slash Las Vegas, he was between quarterback 13 and 20 every year. I think he's in that range again. And that comes down to having an elite pass catcher and Chris Olive, the return of Mike Thomas, some tight ends that are going to contribute in Moreau and Joanne Johnson and Tassum Hill.

I think he's very, like, who would you rather have? Derek Carr or Bryce Young is about this year. Derek Carr. Okay. That's how I feel. Now, Mike, I don't know if you haven't ranked quite that way. Not necessarily for fantasy. You have him 2728, though. Yeah, but I'm not really in on rookie quarterbacks. Like an Anthony Richardson type of archetype, okay, take the bet. But otherwise, I'm, you know, shying away. And Derek Carr, I haven't. I probably have him ranked much lower than he'll finish. But it's because all those guys, once you get to a certain range of quarterback, it's like add two touchdowns and this quarterback jumps 10 spots. So if his touchdown equity is a little more positive, then he'll finish in that 13 to 20 range. But he's not exciting. And I don't see a path for him to surpass what he has done.

before the Raiders. All right. So they're the favorites to win the division, albeit with the low win total. We like winning teams with running backs. Alvin Camara, his legal situation has gotten a lot of clarity. We don't have a final answer on suspension. We need the NFL to talk. It could be zero. It could be one. It could be two. It could be more. I can go up to six. I think I've seen. I think that would be wild. I think I've seen. He's saying it could. Right, right. Within the rules, it's zero to six games. That's what's going to happen. And some of the legal fantasy people that I follow and trust the most, they're kind of landing on four. I'd still be a little surprised if it's four, but TBD. Am I in that legal source that you're trusting? No. I'm so sorry. You didn't pass the bar, Mike? You're not in the list. I have not. You haven't attempted it. Yeah, you haven't failed the bar.

Oh, oh, man. I was starting to feel a little bit bad about myself in my situation, but I realize it's because I haven't even tried. That's right. You have not failed the bar. Excellent. Alvin Camara, though, where he's being drafted, it's a bet that I think can really pay off. But I'm the one that I'm the only one that seems to think that our consensus rankings 27 and I've got him at 22. That's ridiculously low for the history of Alvin Camero. Not that we would expect a return to where he was. But he, if this offense is more competent, more capable, it was Andy Dalton and James Winston led last year. Like, Derek Carr can move the offense more efficiently than those guys. And Alvin Camara is, he's their best weapon still behind Chris Olavitt. Yeah, he is, I think what is happening, at least in, I think this is happening in the fantasy community, but I know this is happening in my heart.

It's the combination of realizing that Alvin Camara has become less and less efficient and he has lost a little step. He doesn't look like, you know, second year explosive Alvin Camara. It's still great. It's the combination of knowing that he's on the way down combined with the fear of the suspension that makes me kind of just want to avoid it. But that is probably a mistake because as much as I like... Kendrae Miller, and I think he's talented. I think he could by the end of the season overtake the starting role. I really do believe that could happen. Most likely, Alvin Camara is the most talented player in that backfield. This offense will be probably the best one in the division. They'll win more games than others in the division. What's the quickest path to relevance for a running bay? Pass catching. Yeah.

We've been talking about that a lot. And he, you know, he missed some time last year. He still had 57 receptions. He still can catch the football. Josh Jacobs last year made his ascension because Derek Carr threw him the football a lot. We were sitting here going, man, Andy Dalton doesn't do it or Tassum Hill doesn't do it. Maybe Jamie Swinson will do it. I think that's the bet. The bet is that Derek Carr will throw the football to one of the more talented receivers. I believe you are correct. And I'm going to move Alvin Camer up a little bit. And I did pass the bar.

What? Oh, Mike, you're a loser again. Unfortunately, it was the Alaskan state bar, and I can only practice up there. Oh. But I do go up from time to time. Still pretty cool. Yeah. A lot of moose law up there. There's a lot of moose law. Yeah. Yeah, thanks, Mike. Jamal Williams. Right now, being drafted eight spots behind Alvin Kamara, we are attracted to 17 rushing touchdowns. I don't know if we're attracted to anything other than his personality beyond the touchdowns because he's not very good. No, there's no reason. He's just really good around the goal line. Yeah, I'm like OUT on Jamal Williams. I love the dude. Obviously, we know he can get it done. He just had 17 touchdowns. But when I look at it, I want the past catching of Camara or I want the actual athletic youth explosiveness to take over of Kendra Miller. When Kendra Miller got added to this team, it was like, oh, Jamal Williams, you're dead to me.

From a fantasy perspective. What about the famous four-week rental policy? Because Kendri Miller's probably not established in being used early in the season. That doesn't generally happen, especially coming off an injury. Jamal Williams was paid money by this team. And if Camara were to miss four games, like you said, you get to start the year, Tennessee, Carolina, and Green Bay. Could Jamal Williams end up like last year as a top 10 running back just for the first three weeks? It's certainly possible. And once. Once we get the word for Alva Camara from the NFL, get the official, is it zero? Where does it end? If it's for, Jamal Williams, his ADP will rise substantially. But if you're doing basketball right now, it's, it's tough. It's tough because it's, to me, this isn't like Somaget P. Ryan where I see a chance that Samajapirine is really.

integral the entire year for the Denver Broncos as Giovante is trying to get back from the injury, Jamal would be a month rental. And because I think that... What's a month rental worth at the running back position? And in the ninth round, I think that's a little too... That might be a little too rich for me. The thing, for me, it's still one of those things where if I were to... You give me a $100 bill, and I've got to place a bet. I've got to put it on Jamal Williams or I've got to put it on Kendrae Miller. I'm going to put it on Kendrae Miller. It's not necessarily because I think he has the higher odds. It's because he's going to have the better payout. Should both hit, Kendrae Miller will be worth more. I'll get more return on the $100 than I would on Jamal Williams. Jamal Williams might fall into the end zone a couple times, but I just don't see him being otherworldly. And then when Alvin Comerica gets back and as the season progresses,

You know, so that's where if I'm making the non-Alvin-Kamara bet, I'm moving towards Kendra Miller. I'm going to believe what we saw, Mike. Yeah. I'm in agreement. What happens? Like they pay Jamal Williams, Alvin Kamara is going to play football. How does Kendrae Miller is just injury? How does he go, how does he pass both those guys to the point where that ticket pays off as opposed to? Like, Jamal Williams is taking the guaranteed payout for the first three weeks, but you don't get it anymore. Whereas Kendri Miller. What is the payoff? How does that happen? The payoff is Camara gets Peterson's and where the rookie year, Camara was, I think, third on the depth chart. You do not want to get Peterson. No, you don't want to get Peterson. No, no, you don't. Yeah, it was Adrian Peterson, Mark Ingram, and then Al Camara was third on the depth chart, his rookie year. And then by, you know, after the first month or so. His path is Camara's path. Yes. Got it. Chris Olave.

Looking at all rookie wide receivers since 24. 14. Only Tyree Kil had a higher target per outrun than Olave. Yes. I agree with your statement. Chris Olave has. Sir, that was not a question. I'm going to say something here. Chris Olave has number one overall potential. I like it. I like it. Wow. No, he does. Yes, he does. I don't like it. I love it. I am not obviously. Really? Yes, I believe that. Yeah, I believe he has number one overall potential. I'm not predicting that. I'm not predicting number one, but we always talk about range of outcomes. I think that's true because I think he could score 15 times. I mean, I genuinely think that could happen in this offense. I mean, Derek Carr is a good deep ball thrower. Chris Olavey's on film last year, unbelievable. When he was given opportunities from James, Olave was coming through with deep perceptions. Then Andy Dalton's like, no, I don't do that. Chris Olave last year, if he hadn't gotten injured, he would be getting.

He would have got a rookie in a year. That's my only point. And so do you think Garrett Wilson has that potential? I think we would say yeah. I think we would say, yeah. So is it number one? Is it top three? Is it top five? Whatever. Olave is that talented and that discounted at wide receiver 13. So I like the price. I'm happy with the price. I'd spend it. It's a dependent bet on Derek Carr. No one likes that. No one wants to go down and be like, you know. Derek Carr gives. Almost always, Derek Carr gives us one elite fantasy option. I love betting on Olave because there's nothing he can't do. Do you love it? I love it. I openly passed on that joke. Like, it was in the brain. It went out. I was like, I'm out. And Mike stepped up. You made a big mistake. You all love him? Oh, I'll love him. He is an exceptional route runner.

great hands incredible speed like like you know he's he's got world beat or speed there's nothing to not like about him so i i don't i don't have a problem with you saying that you think he's got number one overall potential but for that to happen you also have for that to be in the range of outcomes two things have to happen dare car's got to be good which that That can be okay. I mean, he supported Devante Adams last year. But also Michael Thomas has got to be done or injured or Michael Thomas can't come and be 140 target type of player or 130 target type of player and have Chris Oliva be also 150 target player. For sure. And I like the beginning of the sentence where you stated Michael Thomas. No, not that part. Where you stated Michael Thomas can't be 140 target player because I believe that statement is true. Okay.

I don't think that's in his range of outcomes anymore. He's going to be, he's over 30 at this point in time. He can still help the offense. Of course. And you're going to need that. I mean, you have to have somebody be productive. Landry was a compliment to OLAVe last year. I mean, there were options, but what is the ceiling of the current wide receiver 44 and ADP, Michael Thomas? Can he get to 20? I think he can be a top 30 guy. Like he was coming, I mean, it was only two weeks, right? What did he have for? Yeah, the first two weeks. He was great. He was the wide receiver eight, wide receiver 18. And it was, it was. It was touchdowns. It was three touchdowns in two weeks. But it's still, he was coming in and getting, you know, five for 57. Decent target share. I think that Michael Thomas is a, I'm okay with the Michael Thomas bet. Not trying to. Well, I got Michael Thomas here. I'm going to get a top 12 wide receiver, but get someone who. You're not paying for that. But get someone who.

helps your team like teams fantasy football teams need wide receiver threes and fours and michael thomas i think is a is is is someone that i want to bet on to be the fourth wide receiver on my team 44 wide receiver ninth round okay i was trying to figure what's some guys around that range jemal williams yeah give me michael thomas i'll pull up some adp here Are you just want the wide receiver position? Yeah, I'm just curious some names around there to see how much I actually believe in him. So Michael Thomas, other wide receivers, Gabe Davis is going right before him. I'll take that shot. You'll take the shot on Gabe Davis? Yeah. Yeah, me too. Juju Smith Schuster right behind him. Ah, you can give me Michael Thomas on that one. I think that is correct. Zay Flowers? Uh, give me Zay. Yeah, that one's tough. Cortland Sutton somehow is there. Rashad Bateman.

Yeah, Michael Thomas. Bateman. And then Jameson Williams, that's wild with a known six-game suspension in the 10th round. I think he is that good, though. Jameson? Yeah. We didn't talk a lot about him, but I do think that's a really tough situation for fantasy players because it's a hold. You've got to hold him through the suspension. Yes. But the second half of the year with that we were talking about yesterday. I don't know. All right, where's the gold that tied in? Give me a couple. Seconds of... The goal that tied in is going to be Tayson Hill. I liked Joanne Johnson quite a bit until they signed Foster Moreau. Foster Monroe has a connection with Derek Carr. They have a history. I think Foster Roe is pretty good. I think Juan Johnson is pretty good. If you're telling me they're splitting between each other...

Behind Michael Thomas and Chris Olave, I am completely out on fantasy. You can grab them in best ball and hope you get a touchdown here or there. They will have some service, but you can't rely on either of them. So if you're taking the gold, it's Tayson Hill, who's not a tight end. Some gold in them, but he, him hell. Oh, man. You passed on the Olave joke for that one? I just, it was actually Jeremy's joke. Oh, so it's not your joke. No, I would never. Okay. Well, then we can say how bad it was. Yeah. So, but I mean, you know, he could throw touch. I would have taken credit if I got good reception. I'll tell you that right now. You're darn right. Yeah, I would have. You're smart man. It would have been my joke. You know, there's just very few people that can at the tight end position go and put up a 20 point game and Taysam Hill is one of them. So for best ball right now, I actually like him. He's completely undervalued and you don't have to decide which games he's getting.

Two touch. I mean, like, he'll have probably more than one game this season with two touchdowns. There's not a lot of tight ends you could say that about. So I would take gold there, but for the most part, there's not. The mind's pretty empty. Okay. Falcon, seven and ten last year, final team to break down in this division. They've been bet up to eight and a half. And they were a five and a half win total team last season. That puts them number two in the division, I believe, right? Eight and a half should put them at two. Let me just double check that. Yeah, they had the second highest odds to win the division right now. Okay. Confirmed. I called some of my Alaskan lawyer friends, and they confirmed it. They were in a ton of one-score games. They ran the football like crazy. Number one in rushing attempts. Number one in rushing attempt team drafts Bijon Robinson. Yeah. Jason was excited. Yes, I was. Number three in rushing yards.