The TRUTH: QBs Part 2 + Playoff Reactions, Short Snuff - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/24

You know, Tom Brady, he's always, he's been a quarterback one all of these years in a row or whatever the case may be. This was a player who was 19th in our in our truth consistency data. He was great. 6% of the time. He was good. 13% of the time. That's a terrible number. It's I can't even believe it. And you're talking about not making a difference every time you started him. Unless you started in week 17. I mean, that's the real honest truth of Tom Brady. And I say, and on top of that, he got you. Or actually, he got all of us where the season opened. It was brutal. He, with a matchup on the road against Dallas. And you're like, oh, no, Dallas is a good defense. He's struggling. And then you get to weeks four and five. Kansas City, quarterback four. Then he's the QB7 against Atlanta. And it's, oh.

No, Tom Brady is, he's still got it going on. The mojo is still there. He can be a good fantasy quarterback and tricked you if you went back in and waited and waited for it. It was just mediocrity. That single game where he scored 25 fantasy points was the only game before championship week where he crossed 20 fantasy points. 20 fantasy points is. kind of my natural standard of whether I'm happy with the quarterback. When I'm playing fantasy football, I'm wanting 20 points from my quarterback every single week. I'm looking at the matchup, trying to stream the right guy or hopefully have a good quarterback. And that is kind of like, I need that. And he only did that twice on the course of the entire season. He did not help you. He was putrid. That's the truth of Tom Brady's fantasy season. And that was two total times more.

than our next quarterback. Yeah, Brady, by the way, just like Herbert, they fired their office of a coordinator after this season. And these were the ADOT leaders, right? Or I guess you would say the last place finishers in terms of throwing the football down the field. They both had a million completions. None of them were worth nothing. Brady will be 46 years old. Is he a buck next year? No. No. I think he'll be, I think he will play, though. Like, I think he'll play football. But we'll see. It could be in Las Vegas. Aaron Rogers is the next name on the list. Jason, you just said there were zero times this year. Let me count them real quick. Yeah. No, zero's the total of how many times he scored 20 fantasy points this season. If you want to understand the deception of an end of season rank compared to their real performance, Rogers was 13 on the year, and yet he finished 27th in consistency, 0% great, 0% good.

47% bust. Are we sure on this number? Is this true? A good game. Yeah, I mean, basically what we're saying is a good game for our metrics is over 21. And so he never even hit 20. He never helped you win a single time. There are weeks where, you know, a lot of teams are on by. And maybe he snuck in with, you know, I'm looking at week seven. Week seven, he was the quarterback 12. Okay, who's a quarterback one? He scored 15 fantasy points. Yeah, that's what matters. The finish doesn't matter. The 15 matters. Yeah, I mean, he just was terrible the whole season. And I think towards the end of the season, we started having conversations about the matchup is good. Can we trust him and going, no, like once I wouldn't do it. I'm proud of that. I would not do it. You, you stood up for the truth. And the truth is Aaron Rogers. If his name.

is the only reason you ever would have played him. He never helped you the entire season. And so now the question is going forward with his future. We don't know for sure if he's going to play. Apparently there is, you know, some people that are in the know think there is truth to him maybe orchestrating a trade and playing for some other team next year. Wow. That seems very difficult with the new contract. Yeah. I mean, well, and he's only got one year left on it, I believe. We don't know, but if he comes back to the Packers next year, there's going to be a lot of hope, right? Christian Watson, year two, looked great at the end of the year, but I'm not buying in. I just, for the fun of it, looked at age 39, Philip Rivers, and he was more helpful for your team than age 39 Aaron Rogers, threw for 500 more yards in his age 39 season than Aaron Rogers.

And so... Literally almost every quarterback in the league was more helpful. I mean, we've got him at 27th for our kind of truth score. 27th, there's 32 total starting quarterbacks, and he was as bad as it gets. All right, now we're going to jump into Lamar Jackson, talk about him and then Tua. Lamar came in at 14, but his consistency rank was actually five in the games that he played. 42% good, 17% great, 33% bust. Bit of Fool's Gold at the top of the year. Played Miami. And then what was it, New England? Yeah. And that game, I remember that game. That was wild. I think both of those, he had a huge rushing touchdown. So this is, you look, we have gotten to the point with Lamar Jackson where I think we know the truth. It's not the MVP season in 2019. That's not the truth of Lamar Jackson and what you can expect. You can get that on a week.

with Lamar Jackson because of the rushing totals. But now you've got two consecutive years for Lamar Jackson. Twelve games played in both of them. That's a concern. Finished outside the top 12 at the position. So again, when you have him, that's great. But if you don't have them, you don't get those numbers. Another team that really, they kind of screwed some things up, I think, by losing Hollywood Brown. Rashah Bateman got hurt and really wasn't. Hollywood Brown level to start the year. And you look at, you know, DAC's situation. They could have used another target in the wide receiver room that wasn't named Sammy Watkins or Deshawn Jackson. I think that was, honestly, that was the biggest problem for Lamar Jackson is those first few games, even though Bateman wasn't due and, you know, like huge, he had a huge touchdown reception of one of them, I believe. But you had someone who the defense actually had to be nervous about getting down the field and making a huge play.

The fact that they had no one else to go to, especially after Rashop Bateman got hurt. I mean, it was just, the snowball just went down the mountain after that for Lamar Jackson. But at that point, I mean, I had, me and Kyle had Lamar in our League of Record team. And it was, how do you not play Lamar Jackson, who is capable of putting up 40 plus points on a week for a streaming option where you're like, I hope my streamer gets me 21. It's, it was. It was the trap of Lamar, the trap of Kyle Pitts, like some of these guys where you know that the ceiling is just is so high and weak winning and you couldn't possibly move on. First of all, the Ravens have to figure out how to get him back. I guess you can franchise him, but then the way that things are going, at least in the social media of if they franchise him, will he come back and play?

He's not pleased. He wants the guaranteed money that Deshaun Watson got. That quarterback contract broke a lot of things, I think, for the NFL. So if they don't get that figured out, number one, is Lamar even on the team? Then two, do they bring somebody else in with Rashad Bateman? Do they spend the draft capital that they need to spend? Because I don't think there's a free agent you can add. That's the level that you need. But... We need to see them make a move. Hopefully they look at what the offense was, and they make a move of desperation and get one of these high-level talented wide receivers. And for sure they are going to, whether that's through the draft or making a big splashy trade like some of these other teams have done. It seems like that is a priority. When Harbaugh was talking in his postseason press conference, he brought up the fact that...

They're good in a lot of positions. You know, he mentioned the running back, the tight-in rooms. Those are solid. He said the wide receiver room is going to be completely different next year. And I think the truth about Lamar Jackson is he was great until he had no weapons and got injured. Because week one, you had a 55-yard touchdown for Bateman. Week two, you had a 75-yard touchdown to Bateman. Thank you. Very nice. Week three still had a 35-yard reception, gets injured in week four. He goes out. Mark Andrews, remember, got injured at some point there early in the season. And then, you know, it just wasn't good the rest of the way. But he is a talented, I agree with you. He's never going to get back to the 2019.

crazy runaway number one quarterback fantasy finish. But if they bring in someone else, they get Bateman back, Andrew's healthy, add a first round rookie wide receiver or trade for a known commodity. Let me push back a little. Okay. Based on. what we saw last year and maybe what expectations might need to be for Lamar. One thing that Mike brought up with Joe Burrow is the concern of the division, and you have that here with Lamar. You're going to play the Steelers twice, the Browns twice, the Bengals twice. Those games can be slug fest and they can take their toll. The other part is he's not getting younger, right? So the rushing upside, you've probably seen the peak of it. Mike had so many times this year he's watching Lamar without weapons.

And Lamar wasn't choosing to run the football. And I don't know how hurt he was or wasn't. But last year, okay, he had weapons last year. His season-long pace, and I'm not counting the game, he got hurt. 4,000 and 22 touchdowns. So 4,000 yards, 22 touchdowns. Which I guess if you run enough and scoring off on the ground, that can be okay. This year's was 3,526. So you've got 24 games now where I know that there have been some bumps in the road. But my question is, is are we going to just jump fully back in on Lamar? Like, is he going to be a top five for you if they spend high draft capital on a quarterback or wide receiver? He'll probably be top five in the quarterbacks that I would want. The nice thing is because of this experience this year, I don't, I think he will be a relatively lower drafted guy. Like, I don't see him going ahead of the sixth round.

because of the way this season went for him, coming off the injury and, you know, TBD. But, you know, that same season, including his injured game, he was adding, you know, you talked about 4,000 and 22. He was on a thousand-yard rushing pace. So there's still things he can do that other quarterbacks can't do, and he will give you those weak winning performances. Still did it this year. You know, he was number five in our truth metrics. So. I will be in on Lamar Jackson next year. They are another team. They let go, well, depending on they both either quit or got fired. You can't break up with me situation. But Greg Roman, the OC, is out. So they are wanting to kind of revamp this offense. It will be interesting to see who they bring in, both at the wide receiver room and in the coaching position. But I will, you know, it's like one of those things where I would rather have wherever Lamar Jackson is drafted.

sixth roundish than where Joe Burrough is going to be drafted next year, third roundish because of the running. What about a guy like Tua? Tua Tunga Vailoa was the quarterback 15, but his consistency rank was number nine. He had stretches this season that you didn't even doubt that you were getting good numbers from Tua. You know, he had 31% good games, 15% great, 46% bust. The ending of the year was rough. People figured out some of this passing game for sure. I mean, this was, they were eviscerating people in the middle of the field with Janlon Waddle and Tyreek. And suddenly they were taking some of that away. And they did not, you know, they did not figure it out over the back half. You were also on the road against San Francisco, the Chargers in Buffalo, three consecutive weeks. But look at the schedule where Tua dominated, right? That four game, you know, Pittsburgh, atrocious. Detroit.

Goodness gracious. Chicago, the worst team in the NFL and Cleveland at that point in the middle of the season, their defense was struggling to find themselves. I mean, he did what he needed to do, which was the QB1, 4, and 3. So I'm not taking away from there, but looking at who his opponents were, and then as soon as his opponents got a little bit tougher at the end of the year, it kind of fell apart. And the whole... I mean, Tua's career. I have like, what is, what's the plan for the Miami Dolphins with the three concussions that Tua suffered this year? And I think they're in a very, very difficult position. Yeah, he missed a two-game stretch in weeks five and six and then missed the end of the year in the playoffs. He led the league in yards per attempt. So that's something that I want to highlight just in the fact that, look, the weapons.

arrived and Tua was able to step up and do something people didn't think he could do. Yeah. He will be a very interesting kind of, I guarantee he'll go late and he could be one of those guys that like, I mean, even saying it now, like old school Big Ben where nobody takes him until late in the draft and then you're just like, oh gosh, somebody should have taken him. Or old Matthew Stafford used to be that way where you're like, oh, well. Yeah, he has Waddle and Tyreek, and they put up numbers, so why didn't I jump in on that? You're going to have the injury risk, but it was an up and down year, but, you know, 3,500 yards, 25 touchdowns and missed some time. All the great mobile rushing quarterbacks will go early in the fantasy draft, and there aren't an endless supply of them. So if you don't get your hands on one and you end up late round quarterback drafting, I want a guy.

who can go out there and be the number one quarterback on a week, who has the weapons that he has obviously dealt with the concussion injury issues this season. But with an entire off season, he should be good to go next year. And I believe he'll be a decent late round pick. I mean, when you're in those double-digit rounds, you're not going to usually have guys that have Jalen Waddle and Tyree Kill caliber talents on the roster to throw the ball to. Yeah, and you'd hope that this team can continue to make a step forward. protecting him on the offensive line. For sure. There's really only three other names that I want to bring up here on this second quarterback episode. And that's Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, and Kyla Murray, who are 16, 18, and 19 on this list. Russell Wilson, as you say, he's had, he's been the punching bag all year long for the Broncos was 16 here, 20th inconsistency, 16 passing touchdowns.

7% great games, 27% good, 67% bust. I just want to point out those were infinite percentages higher than Aaron Rogers in great and good games. But Russell Wilson, it was not easy to watch. You know, you can throw Cortland Sutton into the mix as a player that's not going to be enough, right? You know, you say Mike Williams or Gabe Davis, like Cortland Sutton is hanging out with those guys in the can't take over a game category. Jerry Judy was their best receiver. By far. On the season, they lost Devontay Williams. But, you know, is Russell Wilson, let me ask you this. Does Russell Wilson get drafted in fantasy football next year? Let me ask you a follow-up question. Is Sean Peyton? That was my question. For Jason, who has been.

Kind of just a little foaming at the mouth, hoping that Sean Payton comes to the Arizona Cardinals. Looking at Russ, Nathaniel Hackett gets the boot, and Russell Wilson plays his best football of the year, those final two weeks. You know, three of his final four games, QB3, QB5, QB2, that twice against the Kansas City Chief, so that's not too shabby. If Sean Payton, because Sean Peyton gets to go where he. wants to go of the teams who are willing to pay the price, which is the financial investment and then the draft capital that the New Orleans Saints were going to require. But if he selects the Denver Broncos, that means that Sean Payton thinks that Russell Wilson can still play because he's not going to attach himself to a team that can't get out of Russell Wilson is there. Like he's going to be there for several years with the contract that he currently has. And that means that to me,

That means that Peyton would be in on Russell Wilson, and you're in on Peyton. I am in on Peyton. So would you be back? That would mean that Peyton is in on Russell Wilson. There are plenty of people way smarter than me in football that get things wrong. Sean McVeigh was in on Alan Robinson. He believed. You know what I mean? I will not personally draft Russell Wilson. next year as the quarterback to go into the season with. That's not to say regardless of Sean Payton's home. Regardless of if Sean Peyton is there. But if Sean Peyton is there, he will get drafted. Like I think there will be enough people out there that do believe in the, that the problem was Hackett and the system. They saw what Russ did the last two weeks without him, and they know what Sean Peyton has done with Drew Brees. And they, I mean, it all makes sense. I just remember when Nathaniel Hackett was the perfect tire.

Well, he was the perfect hire when they were trying to get Aaron Rogers. He's finally going to let Russ cook, though. I mean, he was cooking. You know, what 16% of his attempts, 20 plus yards down field? Chef Boyardee. I mean, like, Russ still goes down the field. Is Peyton, you know, the identity in New Orleans? You know, this was a team that was the perennial every single year. We're a top five rushing football team. I mean, that was the identity with. with New Orleans. So I would be very interested in the discussions around the running game when Sean Peyton if he arrives there. Take the pressure off of a Russell Wilson and Giovante coming back. Do they add somebody else? That was, Sean Peyton was actually talking about, I think it was on Colin Cowherd talking about what he believes he could do to help some of these quarterbacks. And the first thing he talked about was.

you've got to get the running game working to take some of that pressure off. I can't remember if that was specific to Kyler or just to all quarterbacks. But I mean, think about their identity there with whether it's the Tim Hightower years or Pierre Thomas or, you know, obviously Alvin Camara, Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister. Their running game was always great. If you could draft like team running backs. Oh, yeah. I mean, the Saints during that entire era were unstoppable. Dak Prescott comes in at 18. He was the eighth quarterback in our 2022 consistency truth rank. 9% great games, 36% good, smaller sample size due to the injury that lost him five weeks of the season. You didn't really get any of what you expected when you drafted DAC until week eight. Yeah, I mean, obviously missing the first chunk of the season.

due to injury means that he was a bad draft pick. But what the truth score of being number eight says is that he was pretty good and he helped fantasy managers once he was back on the field. The thing is, this was highlighted on the broadcast of the playoff game that he was in about how bad he was across all NFL quarterbacks, not just playoff quarterbacks. under pressure. And when he was playing against good teams, he was not very good. Scored, you know, he was negative 4.2 fantasy points off his average against top 16 passing defenses. So this is a player that when you don't have that other receiving option across from CD Lamb, you needed a soft defense. You didn't like 39 for 424 and 4 from Michael Gallup?

Wasn't a big fan for 424 yards from the next man up. No. But DAC did show that he can help fantasy managers. I expect them to go after a wide receiver in the draft. And if they do, if they bring someone else in, I think that is a 15 picks, 15 interceptions, 23 touchdowns. That is your red alert with what you're talking about with pressure. for Dak is if if this was if Dak was only a low turnover guy when he had the best offensive line in football that will create some some problems I think they said 10 of his picks were when he was under pressure so that that kind of that math just checks out across the board if you don't have another option to throw the ball to and you're getting you know rushed where's Blake Jarwin when you need him is what I'm saying I mean Mike has been saying it for years he's probably

I don't know, in the Taco Bell drive-thru right now. He's on the same cruise that Al's going on. I'll talk to him and see if we can get him back to the Dallas Cowboys. Can you take care of that? Of course. I will say, though, DAC, like everything with the legacy chatter, because when the playoffs are going, people start talking about NFL. Yeah, it's high emotion. But here's the truth for fantasy football. From week seven on, one, two, three, QB seven in points per game. Like, Dak Prescott was still quite solid. And week seven on is when he came back. Yeah, yeah. When he came back from the injury, he was still, he, he was QB6 over that time. He was the QB 7 in points per game. He wasn't, you know, it wasn't the top tier, but you don't have to draft Dak to be that. And I think Jerry Jones will try his darnedest to add another receiving weapon to this team. But I.

I'm assuming I will be back in on DAC as it becomes a good value because he's, DAC has always been good for fantasy football. He's always been a good value too. And obviously even this year, he was an eighth round pick, the quarterback 10 off the board. There was some concern there with the departure of Amari Cooper. And, you know, this is a tough team too to project the kind of moves you're going to make as a reaction to another disappointing season. Kyler Marie at 19 is the last name I want to discuss. He was the quarterback five off the board. And his consistency rate was six. So even though he finishes at 19, he obviously missed half the year. Number six in consistency, 45% good games, never had a great game that was above that 26 point threshold. He got really close in week eight against, I think Minnesota. 27% bus games. Real big point differential, fantasy-wise, good defenses versus bad defenses.

almost seven points. And so that's something that I think is Cardinal fans in being out here in the Valley. We have seen trouble from Kyler when you face that defense that gives you the pass rush that shows you the looks that you're not able to take advantage of. But I'm going to give him a pretty good grade on the year, considering he played essentially, what is it, 10 weeks of the season? And six of the 10 weeks was without. DeAndre Hopkins in this offense. And then once he got Hopkins back, he lost Hollywood Brown. He rarely got a chance to play with lost Zach Ertz. Both guys. So the weapons weren't there. And he was still pretty consistent for fantasy purposes. We were, I think, disappointed that he didn't have those monstrous 30, 35 point fantasy weeks, which we know for a fact he can do. He's done it in the past.

You give him weapons, you give him a new offensive coordinator, a new system this year, TBD on what the coaching staff will be and whether or not Hopkins is a part of this team. So I think there's some big questions going into next year about his situation. There's also going to be questions about his injury. He should not be at full mobile rushing strength come week one. So he will be a discount in the draft. He could even start the season on the pup. I think you can't really project what next year is going to be like. You can only look at what this last season was like and what the situation was, which was the situation was negative for him, and he was still positive for fantasy because of his rushing upside. Yeah, and they'll have a new head coach and a new offense. So Cliff Kingsbury is in, where is he? Thailand. Thailand. And maybe that's where Jarwin is.

Is that where the, what's the offense, the air rate? Is that, yes. Is it from Thailand? Well, it is, it's over there now. He's working it out for his big return. They didn't work out, did it? No. My Thailand. That's where, that's where he's in. So, I think that'll wrap up this episode. I'm looking at the other names all the way down the list. Oh, please, Lord. You know, don't do it. Some quarterbacks that will be in discussions next year. Let me just say that really quickly. Okay. I'm going to start with Matthew Stafford. He will be in discussions when he starts the year. Deshaun Watson. Will he be he who can be played next year? We'll find out. San Francisco. We'll call it. Yeah, there you go. Yes. Let's call it San Francisco. So Lance Garoppolo.

Purdy, whoever else they grab off the street to lead him to a title. The seems like it's going to be Purdy though, right? The one thing I feel. I still think it's up in the air. One thing I'm confident about is the play of Brock Purdy has said it won't be Garoppolo. Like that I think that was kind of maybe he goes back to the team, but I think it's either Lance or Purdy. What if Purdy goes down in the Super Bowl and then Garoppolo comes in and leaves him to a title? Probably going to happen. Because that would be very San Francisco-esque. It would be. And more Jimmy-esque. He finds a way when he's active to play football. But no, that'll do it. As I said at the top, if you have a free second and you want to go to footclanvote.com. Yes, please. Click a couple buttons. Vote for us as the best social media content for the FSGA awards. We would appreciate it. Otherwise, Brooks, what truth is coming up on our next episode of the show? We got top 10 running backs. Oh, boy. Oh, boy.