Fantasy Football 2017 - Fantasy Trade Troubles + AFC West Breakdown

not as good as what they were able to do in actuality in winning these games. Now, Travis Kelsey was a headliner in fantasy last year, lead tight-in, 70-plus yards a game. One of the things I thought would be interesting to look at is how did Travis Kelsey perform when Tyreek Hill had big games? So I went and looked and said, hey, look, how many games did Tyree Kill have 50 or more receiving yards? And there were six of them.

Well, in those games, Travis Kelsey averaged 17 fantasy points a game as opposed to 11.9 in games where he did not pop, where Tyree Kill did not have big games. So it didn't negatively impact Kelsey to further involve Tyree Kill in the office. Now, Hill, snap percentages, those things are going up for him this year. All the reports out of camp is that he's taking his game to the next level. Very precise route runner. But you're still Alex Smith, number one.

Sure. What I looked at for Travis Kelsey was how was he performing with and without Macklin? Because the first nine games of the season, Travis Kelsey was giving you an average of five receptions of 52 yards. That's fine for a tight end, for a fantasy tight end. That's not fine for a tight end that's going to be drafted in the third round. It's his run, which were games 10 through 15. That started when Mackham went out.

And then that's when three, or Macklin missed three of those four straight hundred yard games. Macklin's second game back, though, he hit, Macklin had a big game and Travis Kelsey was back down to three for 41. I mean, it's, I think there was a pretty strong correlation. So the question will be is, is there a number two, not like Tyreek Hill, obviously, but he's the one like, can Chris Conley or Albert Wilson step up? Or is, have they finally made the transition?

to say, okay, Travis Kelsey is going to be the guy that we're going to give 10 targets. I don't think you have to spend an extended amount of time talking about the wide receiver too in Kansas City. That may be the question mark that we can't answer, but you have to approach that the same way we've approached it the past few years. It was Macklin and somebody else that would score every once in a while. That's how I view it. Yeah, you've got two weapons there. It's Kelsey and Tyree Kill, and that's pretty much it. And the reality for Tyree Kill is, I think he's going to be more involved.

than we have currently this offseason expected him to be. The four games at Macklin missed, he had seven receptions a game. I don't expect him. I mean, that's a pace of, what, 112 receptions? That's not going to happen. But he's got the talent every time he touches the ball to take one to the house. And the last thing I'll say for Kelsey, for those who are, you're like, I'm drafting Travis Kelsey in the third and the fourth round. Here's his touchdowns of his career, five.

five, four. Yeah, I'm not, he's not, he doesn't score. So it just, I'm just, I love Kelsey. I love the talent. I'm, I'm with him, with Zeus, but just saying, be careful where you are spending a draft pick on Travis Kelsey. Yeah. So before we, before we get to, uh, the next team, the Raiders, we definitely want to thank Pristine auction. We, we gave him a shout out earlier for the awesome signed.

Jake Butt jersey. You can get anything you want. We also had a, that's, that's, we had a patron send us the Mike Tyson punch out framed with the NES controller. Yeah. It's incredible. But I just wanted to point. Like, that's, that's, that's the level of items that are on pristine auction. That's the depth. Yeah, thank you. The depth. Jake, but.

This guy has done nothing in the NFL. He's an injured rookie. But he looks great on the wall. He looks fantastic. And Tyree Kill, aforementioned. We just gave away a signed and autographed. See? Incredible. He doubled up. He did it two times. No, he assigned Tyree Kil jersey. We just sent it out to a listener who won one of our recent contests. We picked that up on pristine auction.com. These guys are the absolute leaders. And they just added a new feature. If you pick up a jersey on there, you have the option of adding custom framing to that jersey. So if you pick up that.

stalwart favorite player of all time. You can just have them custom frame it. It's cheaper and easier than having you take it down to the local framing shop. They may make it look pristine. Oh, I see what you did there. So check them out. P-R-I-S-T-I-N-E auction.com. Sign up for free and let them know the footballers sent you. Yeah, and let them know about our punny comments. The Raiders were 12 and 4 as well.

The Raiders. Derek Carr, leading the ship, leading the charge, freshly paid. A team that lost Latavius Murray, a team that gained Marshaun Lynch. Did they lose Latavius Moe? He had 12 touchdowns. And one of the best short yardage backs in the league. When you start to dig into the numbers on Latavius Murray. But is he or was it the line? Well, that is the question. Jared Cook also joining the franchise, Cordero Patterson.

is on board as well. One of the better offensive lines in the league, obviously, protected David Carr, or Derek Carwell. No one protected David Carr. No, never did. Sorry. So, Marshawn is back. He is. I also think there's a great wide receiver conundrum in Oakland because you have the reality that, yet again, Michael Crabtree, outscored.

Amari Cooper, 195, 195 in the back half of the year, Amari Cooper was about eight points better, but these guys, they don't go next to each other in the draft. And so, you know, what is the decision-making process for a fantasy owner? I mean, Jason, you picked up Amari Cooper early in a best ball league. You're waiting for him to have that double-digit touchdown year, and obviously that is well within the realm of possibilities. He's super talented. He's missed on a few opportunities.

It seems like he should be the guy to go to, and yet Seth Roberts gets those in-zone targets for some reason despite dropping a bunch. Yeah, I was in a best ball league, and if you've had Amari Cooper, you have experienced the up-and-down nature. So I'm more fine with him there than in a redraft league because he does have a tendency to disappear. He'll have the major booms and the busts. I just wanted to bring some stats to what you're saying. 63% of the time, Michael Crabtree was a one or a two.

43% of the time, Amari Cooper was a one or a two. So that's the boomer bust thing you're talking about. Right. But one of the things that I really like, when I look at Cooper, obviously he's extremely talented. And I don't usually like drafting guys where the... At their ceiling? At their ceiling where it's like, okay, if he does what, you know, we hope he does, then he's just matching the draft price. So that gives me hesitation in redraft. That being said...

Last year, so rookie year, zero red zone targets, right? Last year, seven. Now, he scored zero touchdowns, but he also led the league tied with Brandon LaFelle with four pass interference calls in the end zone. So that's four robbed. I mean, they threw him the ball in the end zone four times where, you know, he didn't have the opportunity to catch it, and the team got the ball at the one yard line.

go figure, Latavius Murray had 12 touchdowns. He also caught a touchdown at the very back of the end zone where his toe hit the white line and it was ruled out. I mean, obviously you can't just be like, well, give them those five touchdowns. But those were opportunities that were there. And had he, you know, if you had added five touchdowns to his numbers last year, where would be drafted? He would be fantastic. So in the ultimate draft kit, we teamed up with Matt Harmon, writer for NFL.com, because he does this study.

called the reception where he looks at how does a receiver do just running routes? Are they actually a good wide receiver? And he also measures things like contested catch rate. Well, Amari Cooper's contested catch rate bad. And he put out the hypothesis that perhaps this is why when you're talking about those 10 zone targets that Amari Cooper is not getting him. Amari Cooper's senior year, he had a 50% contested catch rate. That's

That's below average for college. Since being in the NFL, he is below the 38th percentile in contested catch rate. Meanwhile, Crabtree tied for third best last year with an 85% success rate for contested catches. And that makes perfect sense. That's just the hypothesis right now. But when windows are tight in where you have nowhere to go and you can't just break away. I mean, that.

I can make some sense. You see he added 10 pounds of muscle? Like, I wonder if that's part of the motivation there is. Or is that report? No, no, no. That's, yeah, that's just the reality. If you see a picture of him as well, you'll, you'll see him. He's, he's thick. I wonder if that's part of the equation. He wants to be more competitive on contested catches. Possibly. That would make sense. It's a smart hypothesis. But I think we can rule out that hypothesis rather quickly considering he's, that David Carr, Derek Carr, still throws the ball an ungodly amount to Seth Roberts, who if you.

Does Seth Roberts know how to catch the ball? Stop throwing to Seth Roberts. We can say what we want. I had someone tweet me and be like, oh, but Seth Roberts left this year. And I was so excited for a second. I was like, what? Did I miss that? No, he's still there. And just to point out for Michael Crabtree, yes, he was a wide receiver one or two, 63% of time. And he actually, he was quite safe. I mean, you're talking he was.

He busted less on a weekly basis, and we're saying a wide receiver four or worse. He busted less than Julio Jones and Mike Evans. Yeah. So, I mean, he was a great pick. He's still going way too late in drafts. I don't see why drafters are just putting everything on Amari Cooper on this projection. Meanwhile, Crabtree's over here. Like, I've been doing it for two years now with the Raiders. What do I have to do?

Amari Cooper is going in the second round, Michael Crabtree in the fifth round. He's a great value. Drafts Michael Crabtree and be cautious with Cooper. I mean, if you're in a redraft league, that's the best advice. If it fell this way, are you okay having both of them on your team? No. Okay. Yeah, probably not. And part of that is what we're going to get into now. I want to talk about Derek Carr because I think this show in particular is lower on Derek Carr than the populace.

Yes. Then the common thought, then the voice of public opinion who happily drafts Derek Carr. But is he? Yes. But he's so young and he's been so good and he's only going to get better. Well, you could be right. But I don't think he's the sixth quarterback off the board. No, he is the sixth quarterback. Why? Yeah, I don't think he should be. There you go. And the reality is that, yes, he missed the game at the end of the year. And the efficiency, the lack of interceptions, the.

What your eyes told you is how good of a quarterback he is. But in fantasy, he had some, you know, he didn't really improve on the core fantasy numbers last year other than reducing mistakes. And so I like Derek Carr, but I think it would be a jump to call this a super prolific offense yet. And that adds to the question of Crabtree Plus Cooper, do you want them both on your team?

You know, sixth in the league in rushing yards, middle of the pack and passing yards, 13th in the league. That's good, but it's not like Green Bay where you're saying, okay, I can have Jordy Nelson and I can put Devante Adams, and I don't even think twice about it. I think we all want Oakland to be that, and we all love rooting for this team. They're young, they're fun, they're exciting, they have a great opportunity. But I just don't, I think people are jumping the gun. Like, we have kind of a warning there for Derek Carr purchasers.

Look, you might want to refund by midseason. If you lock yourself into Derek Carr with an early draft pick, that might not be your best case scenario in the draft. Derek Carr's final four games, final four division games, he scored 11 or fewer fantasy points per game. He didn't get to play Denver the second time, but the first time he played them, he put up seven and a half points. I mean, it was bad. And guess what? You have to play all those teams.

Two times. Yeah, so it's the Chargers. And the Chargers last year, I mean, they get Jason Verrett back. I mean, they're a solid pass defense. The Chiefs are well known. The Broncos are well, it's not the easiest division to play quarterback. Right. And I'm not one to say, well, okay, you have, I'm not going to let a division completely scare me off. But, but under 11 points are under in every one of those last games. I mean, that's, that's brutal.

All right, we do need to jump into the Broncos. But before we do that, I want to just quickly talk about Marshaun Lynch. Latavius Murray last year was an RB 1 or 2, 64% of the time in that offense. 12 touchdowns, we've talked about that a lot. When you look at a breakdown of how the carries are going to go, if you look at last year, Murray had 195, and both of the other guys, Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington, were in the 80s.

I think that's the breakdown you're going to see this year. Around 200 to 220 carries is how I'd break down Marshawn Lynch with about 80 to 90 carries for the other two guys. Despite the reports that say they want him under 200? Yes. Despite the reports that they may manage him. Saying he's going to be around 200 to 220, that's what I think the realistic truth is about Marshaun Lynch. If you're looking at that equation, 64% of the time in RB 1 or 2, do you think Marshaun Lynch beats that number that Latavis Murray set last year? Or...