Playoff Primer + Trade Targets & League Winners - Fantasy Football Podcast for 11/13

And Alec Pierce, I think those are still the types of players you can throw in a lineup and hope for a 50, 60 yard bomb from Anthony Richardson. They, you know, they're boom, bust. But you don't expect a lot of passing yards. Anthony Richardson is never going to throw for 300 yards this season. And they're playing the Jets this week. Is that right? Correct. Mike, what's the other play, the news we got? We got Desmond Ritter starting. We got Richardson started. What else we got? So peering on a radio segment. Adam Schaefter said, quote, I would guess that we don't see Daniel Jones play another down for the Giants. Schaefter didn't bother to source the fantasy footballers. I understand that we were. This was us? We were talking about yesterday. Because it is the clear and obvious decision that the Giants have to make. You can't risk Daniel Jones getting hurt and then owing him a bunch of money if he can't clear a physical. Yeah. I mean, Daniel Jones shaved his beard.

So at that point, you are Drew Locke. Drew Locke is Daniel Jones without a beard. So there's no difference here. He should. He really, really should, but I doubt, I don't know if he can yet. So I Google Drewlock face before. Um, I, oh, he's got some really good. Yeah, he needs a beard. I'm looking at this guy. You put a beard on that man. He could look better. He needs a beard. Yeah. But yeah, so I don't think this makes a huge impact. I mean, you could play Daniel Jones for the rushing upside. You can't play Drew Locke. I presume that this will be pretty neutral for Malik Washington. Neighbors. Malik Neighbors. I don't think this is a upgrade. Definitely neutral for Malik Washington. This move does not impact Malik Washington.

Who is the player that always... How does this affect? Marlin Mac. Marlon Mac. Yeah. Also neutral. Yeah. So, you know, I don't know if people are going to freak out and feel like Neighbors is dead. Neighbors hasn't been doing anything the last few weeks with Daniel Jones anyways. I think if anything, you're like, oh. Maybe. Maybe there's some hope now. And that's where I say it's neutral because I doubt it gets much worse. And I doubt it gets any better. The Giants are in trouble. For what it's worth in the two games that Drew Locke started last year, completion percentage. 71% and 67% threw for 269 yards, 208 yards, three touchdowns, two picks, took six sacks. It's not Daniel Jones. Adam Thielen, coming back off of Injure Reserve. Off of Injure Reserve. He found his way off, Mike. They are on by. No.

But we will need to make a note to read. Not again. Why did you wake me? From my slumber. The next week, waiver wire episode, if you're needing a start, Adam Thielen with Deontay Johnson out and having enough time to recover, he's a sneaky guy that you could pick up off of waivers and play. I agree. Out as in traded away, not just hurt. Correct. Yeah. Najee Harris could be limited in practice due to an ankle injury. expected to play on Sunday. Isaiah likely not seen practicing missed last Thursday's game. I believe Andrews has four or five weeks and double digits right now. Mark Andrews is, he is producing. Five touchdowns in five weeks. Yeah, he's been on a heater. That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com. We'll preview the Thursday night game and get into that very important playoff primer. Thursday night breakdown.

Well, okay. Okay, okay. Washington, seven and three, Philly, seven and two. I'm concerned. The DK Sportsbook line, Philly minus three and a half. The O'Runders 48 and a half. This is a divisional battle. And your concern, Mike, I am guessing, is that Philly will smash them. No. Okay. I'm guessing that you're concerned. The defense. I'm concerned about both defenses. For fantasy. Yes. Yeah. I mean, last year, this was a barn burner. These two games with Sam Howell were awesome. They were, oh, RIP. Yeah, yeah. But this Eagles defense, we've been saying it for a couple weeks now, and I think everyone's caught up. They're great. They're really, really tough to play against. Right now, you adjust for schedule. They are literally...

top five. They're the only defense in the league that is top five against all positions of fantasy points given up to quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tied in. Last year, we were targeting the Eagles second. Yeah, it was great. I mean, you know, they were not good. So Cooper de Gene has made a big difference for this team. I believe that the actual defensive coordinator upgrade is massive. And so, and then the commander's defense has gotten a little bit better every week. They are, I mean, he's, um, The commanders are eighth against quarterbacks over the last six weeks, fourth against whiteouts, and this week they add Marshawn Lattimore to the equation. So, yeah, you might not get the 34-31, the 38-31 games you got from last year, both up over 60 points. The overrunners at 48.5. I mean, you do have. Nice. You've got talent on both sides, but you're saying that the range of outcomes in this game go from, hey, we have the explosive game with the big performances.

But it could also be, you know, Thursday night, it's tough for teams to turn around and play on Thursday night, especially if you're recovering from injuries or you get banged up. Execution seems to hit a lull sometimes on Thursday night football. And you've got two teams. Divisional battles in and of themselves can turn that direction. They can always go crazy. As in like just nothing happens. It's not, you know, it's not affecting who I'm starting. You know, Jaden, he's in. Jalen Hertz is in. Of course, Sequin. I mean, like, everybody on the, on the Philadelphia side is in, except for, you know, the, look, Dallas Goddard was, he played? I think he caught it. He scored. Yeah, he scored, but he was also limited. It was 63% of the snaps. There's only three targets for him. And then he was limited for Tuesday's practice. He concerns me that's like, that's the only spot that over the past six weeks, the commanders have been a plus matchup for a position.

So again, I'm certainly not playing Dallas Goddard. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Dallas Goddard, they might be where you can kind of attack the defense, but it would, you know, his, his breakout games were when Devante Smith got injured, AJ Brown was out, and it was like, okay, it was clear how this was going to work out. I don't think Goddard has a lot of big fantasy games when the wide receivers are there. So what about Brian Robinson, who has been missing time? due to injury. His injury situation is very frustrating for fantasy players because it's in out, in out, snip, snap. And Echler performs when he's not there. The hamstring injury has kept him out the past two weeks. Being on a short week, a limited participant participant in Tuesday's practice, I'm going to, I'm not playing him. I worry about reaggravation.

I worry about bad performance against, you know, the number three run defense against running back. So with the injury, he's out. If he's in, then I'm not going to play Austin Echler either. So this is one of those situations where if you want a running back to play, you're hoping Brian Robinson is out. And then you can have Austin Echler in kind of that flex caliber player. But of course, don't put Thursday night football players in your flex. Give yourself that flexibility for later in the week. Other, I mean, Terry McLaren. You're just going to start a plate, because he's been so good? You have to. I mean, you're going to start all these guys. And really, it's one of those things where when I see primetime games, usually I view primetime games as great quarterbacks come through. And I think you've got two great quarterbacks here. So hopefully they can overcome these tough defenses. But yeah, the range could be, I mean, I don't think we're getting the Lamar.

I don't think so. I mean, those two defenses, their secondaries are not good and the quarterbacks took advantage. Right now, I expect, you know, if I had to put a dollar on the over under, I'd probably put it on the under. Who do you have to win the game? I've got the Eagles. Mike? Yeah, I'll take the Eagles. Yeah, it seems like the right bet. All right, let's jump in. Playoff Primer. Well, just to remind you some more names from last year that got you two title games that won you, your league. Joe Flacco was one of those names. You could start him down the stretch. Maybe it'll be Drew Locke. Cairn Williams, James Connor in the way he, Connor is so weird this year because, well, we'll talk about him. Yeah, Connor every year. But he normally finishes year strong and this year's just been all the way through. In order for him to finish this year strong, he has to finish this year.

He has to play the whole year. And that's never happened. So he also broke his rushing record last year. Like he is the Fred Jackson of this generation right now. Yeah. No, I agree. I mean, he's, he is for two years in a row been a championship league winner. You remember when Marty Cooper last year gave me 46 points against the guy in the middle of the middle of Ducer's Alley? That was fun for you. Did you feel every one of the 46 points, Papa Josh? Dude, that was the worst. He pooped on you. George Pickens also won people some titles last year. Gonna do it again. And even the joku, we mentioned it. So we are looking at the best and worst schedules for every position. Let's start a quarterback. We are just for a point of clarification where you're using schedule adjusted metrics. That doesn't mean, you know, if it's not the team that has given up the most points to the quarterback position or whatever position, it's.

We take a look at their opponents and what their opponents average and how much they have given up compared to their average and then rank those. We think it's a much more accurate schedule. And we're looking at the fantasy playoffs from week 15 through 17. If you're in a big larger league that starts early in week 14, sorry, there's buy weeks in 14. Or if you go all the way to the final season, the final week of the season, which is dumb, change your league. That'll be 18. But all of the metrics we're bringing up on today's episode are 15 through 17. You want to join a big logger league with me, Mike?

I'm in. Yeah, we're in. Here's the quarterback schedules that I think are really interesting. One is Baker Mayfield because he has been very, very good and will be getting Mike Evans back. And that is really, really a big deal with what they found from Kate Otten. Like, yes, you've missed Godwin, but you have discovered something with Kate Otten, I think. And this team gets Evans back. They play. the Chargers, the Dallas Cowboys, and the Carolina Panthers for your three playoff weeks. All three of those are plus matchups for the quarterback position. You also have him, you know, on by right now where he gets to heal up his little to ski that's been bothering him. So him getting a little healthier, getting Mike Evans back, I do think this stretch run. If you can acquire him for cheap, he will be a valuable option if you don't have one of the studs. And it's important that we.

make sure to not tell people when we say Baker's got a great schedule. I think he is worthy of winning a championship for sure. But that doesn't mean that someone who's got, you know, we're going to talk about the bad schedules too. Josh Allen has a bad schedule for the playoffs. I'm not going to trade Josh Allen for Baker Mayfield. I'm going to roll with the absolute studs. But, you know, we're going to get into it. But context here. And just use your brain. Yeah, yeah. And the, they're on the Buccaneers are on the by week, correct? Correct. So, I mean, if your quarterback situation is kind of in flux, drop it like it's hot, man. Look at that. Like, coming off of the bad week last week, I think that there's a chance that Baker hits some waivers. Oh, I'm sorry, laser. Bo Nix, Kyler, Murray, Jordan, Love are the three other names to highlight from our schedule adjusted strength of schedule for those playoff weeks. Bo Nix has been.

What I love about him is he has freedom in this patent offense to move around and find guys down field. And it's, you know, in today's NFL, it's getting a little irritating to find guys that throw the ball down the field. I mean, we literally are having this discussion about Patrick Mahomes or Tuaua in recent weeks, whereas Bo Nix has been given freedom to escape the pocket. He looks a lot like it's wild to say this. He looks a little bit like Stroud did last year. Stroud would escape the pocket with his eyes downfield and chuck it. And you want that. Except Bo Nix actually takes off and runs sometimes. And when he does, he gets chunk yardage. Yeah, and Stroud probably completed more of the downfield passes. But Bo Nix just pay attention. It's not that. That would be terrifying to me to go into the playoffs with Bo Nix as you started for three weeks. It doesn't mean you can't win. You have some weeks here to get.

get that actual confidence. Kyler Murray plays at home against New England. He's been awesome at home. He had one dud, but they dominated the game and beat the Bears at home. The Cardinals. Oh, the rushing touchdowns. Yeah, the Cardinals as a team have been playing excellent at home, which if you aren't familiar over the last several years, they have sucked at home. So this is a nice change. And then at Carolina, one of the worst teams against quarterbacks. Then at Los Angeles, controlled environment, you should pay attention to the weather at this time of year. But the Rams, you know, there's the potential for that to be a back and forth affair. And they're a plus matchup. So Kyler and then Jordan Love. Jordan Love is. This is the guy that I think is going to win the most championships based on schedule and health team and all of that. At Seattle, which should be a very good back and forth affair. New Orleans in a controlled environment.

Minnesota in a controlled environment. I really do think Jordan loves, I mean, over those three weeks, I mean, you could see him throw 10 touchdowns easy. Mike, talk to us about some of the worst quarterback schedules that are people need to be aware of if you're planning on kind of riding one quarterback. So Jason mentioned it, but Josh Allen, it's pretty tough, but he is of the guys we're going to talk about, he, it's fine. I'll just play Josh Allen. But. Jared Goff has not performed as we hoped he would for fantasy. Nowhere close to what he was giving us last year. He's got three brutal matchups, Buffalo, Chicago, and San Francisco. Not winning titles this year. The one that I think is like needs to be talked about and examined of just where we are because Joe Burrow is playing unbelievable. Like Joe Burrow is playing MVP caliber football right now. He's.

just crushing for fantasy football. One of the playoffs for him is on the road at Tennessee. It's an okay matchup, but the Titans defense does show up. Yeah, they're very good. From time to time. But then Cleveland and Denver. The Denver Broncos, it is at home, but it's the Denver Broncos and championship week. That is going to be a very, I think a very tough decision for people that. I mean, if you've been rolling with the Bengals, you don't like to see that the team that just held the surging Kansas City Chiefs. It looked like Mahomes was back. He was not back in that game against the Denver Broncos. Jason, other names that are worth surfacing there? I certainly echo Borough.

My fears of him are large. That week two against Cleveland, you know, last year against Cleveland, 181 and 2, the year prior 82 yards and no touchdowns. It scares me. And he's playing so good where he's one of those guys where maybe if you've got someone else, maybe you could trade him for Kyler Plus or just, you know, something like that. I would entertain it. But Sam Darnold is the name to me that people have done well with Darnold so far this season. Not recently. And yeah, I mean, recently it's gotten a little bit worse. But Chicago, um, in the first week of the playoffs, I don't think you get to the second week of the playoffs if you're playing Sam Darnel. So that's, that's my issue is, you know, some of these guys I look more towards the first and maybe second week of the playoffs to just be like, you know, again, just like you got to make the playoffs to get there. Um, it doesn't matter how great your championship matchup is. If you don't get there, worry more about, you know, week 15.

You did mention like you're not going to bench Josh Allen to go play Baker Mayfield or go trade for Baker Mayfield. Are you willing to move Alan with the knowledge of these matchups for the guy that, you know, Jordan Love if it means you're going to add to your team? I would, yes, I would only do that, only do that in the situation where I'm adding a lot to my team. If it's Jordan Love plus a really impactful, you know, high-end running back, okay, now I'm willing to take that on or Kyler. plus a really impactful asset. Okay, but I'm not, I would not move from Josh Allen to Kyler or Jordan Love. And then you've got guys like Goff, Gino Smith, and Patrick Mahomes, who bad playoff schedules don't, don't play them. Yeah, yeah, it makes sense. If you look at running backs now, the juiciest schedules are some of these guys that have already gotten you to this point, which is kind of nice, right? Gibbs Montgomery, they faced the 31st, 22nd, and 18th.

best running defenses, all plus matchups. Kyron, all plus matchups. And then you talk about focusing on the first two weeks. It doesn't get better than James Conner's. New England at home, where Conner's been great, Caroline on the road, dead last against the run. The only team that I think might compete with that is Bijon Robinson and the Falcons. The first two weeks, you've got against the Las Vegas Raiders who are 28th. They're starting Desmond Ritter. That's a great matchup for Bijon. And then the next week is the New York Giants. And while the Giants defense, they've got a, they've got a great front. Right now, they're still 25th at schedule adjusted against running backs. But I do expect they might towards the end of the season start, uh, start letting some of their players get healthy. You know what I mean? Start letting little tiny tweaks in the hamstring be like, do you feel that? No, I'm fine. You felt that.

You are going, sit it down. We got a draft pick to achieve. So I love Bijon's and James Connor's schedules and the Lions, man. Those are great. You need to pick up Benson and Algeria if you have Bijon and Connor because you are promising yourself that schedule. That's what's beautiful about this juncture of the season in trading for an insurance back. Yeah. We've talked about it for, I mentioned it a couple weeks ago, the stretch run for the Jets run game. Brees Hall, I don't trust him, but he's got a great schedule for the matchups. He's got Jacksonville and Buffalo in those three playoff weeks. If he is anything, I mean, I'm just so scarred by Brees Hall. I'm going to say you're talking with a different cadence. Yeah, you, I mean, he's. There's less air in your lungs when you speak of him right now. Last year in our dynasty league, I believe I had a playoff week where Brees Hall and Bijon combined four fantasy points.

Did you end up winning? I did not end up winning that week. But thankfully they did bounce back to an awesome game the next week when it didn't matter and I wasn't in. So I don't know. I'm sick of priest. Gun shy. Yeah. It's just personal. Pretty nice schedule for Sequin, Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, who I feel like Jacobs is just sailing through this season. Kind of like not making headlines, not not a bust alert, but just cruising through the year. That's because he hasn't. hasn't had touchdowns. I mean, he has had three touchdowns on the course of the season, four, if you include the receiving game. So running backs that have terrible schedules for the playoffs, they're actually names that are not in the auto start category, at least several of them. So like Najee Harris and Jalen Warren have a terrible run. DeAndre Swift, terrible first two games, maybe the worst, Minnesota, Detroit.

and not a lot of confidence in Swift being a special player able to overcome that. And then people expecting and excited for Isaiah Pacheco's return has to face Cleveland and Houston. Cleveland on the road, Houston then at home, that seems concerning where all three of those guys are in the... Yeah, I mean, Kareem Hunt's done, and Isaiah Pichiko's not someone you're going to want to start. Kareem Hunt is going to continue to get you towards the playoffs, but you have to have a backup plan. And that backup plan is not going to be Isaiah Pacheco. Because I do not believe for one second, like I was kind of pounding on the table that when Christian McAfee comes back, he's just going to get it all. Because that's Kyle Shanhan's system. When Isaiah Pacheco comes back, he is not getting it at all. This is a player coming back off of a broken leg that they want for the playoffs. Kareem Hunt has been more than serviceable. They're going to bring Isaiah Pacheco back, have it be a rotation. I don't doubt that Isaiah Pacheco takes over in the playoffs, but not your fantasy playoffs. So I do think if you're riding hot with Kareem Hunt, make.

plans, find other, even if it's those insurance backs that we were just mentioning, you know, grab Cam Acres, Tyler Algear, Trey Benson, Braylin Allen, and hope that by the time the playoffs come, one of those guys is a starter. Mike, talk to me about the Dolphin situation because, you know, Moster suddenly doesn't get a carry. The schedule's tough. Houston, San Francisco, Cleveland. A. Chan's the guy, but Jalen Wright's being worked in and the offense doesn't look normal. Is this, is their schedule, the It's not, no, I'm not moving to pivot A-chan at all. I'm not going to move off of A-chan, past catching running backs. That's it, yeah. I'm not as concerned. And while it was only 15 yards this past week for A-chan, it was, he caught all five targets and they just, they have some time here over the next couple of weeks to figure it out before I would have any kind of concern for him. Where are you at with Joe Mixen, though? Week one is Miami? That's fine, but.

I'm fine. You're fine? I'm fine. On the road against Kansas City. They're the number one. They are. I mean, that is the literal worst matchup you can have. And I do not expect Joe Mixon to win you your week. I do fully expect Joe Mixon to be near 10 fantasy points and be fine. I mean, he's not someone I'm moving off of it all. He's just so integral to that team. And we just saw him in a tough matchup where he got 25 carries. Did nothing with it. He didn't get 50 yards if my memory serves. I mean, if that's the case, and they're still giving them that 25th carry, I'm not worried about that against Kansas City. Tyrone and Tracy, okay, that's someone that I would be scared of, bad schedule coming up, not a lot of investment. Teams going to be phoning it in, you know, hard, you know, Baltimore, Atlanta, two tough matchups to start. But no, Joe Mixen, no, I'm not scared. Well, let's take a break. We'll get into wide receivers and tight-in schedules, the tight-ins in particular.

Big role last year in winning new titles. Be right back. Well, there are some really juicy wide receiver schedules when you talk about the playoff weeks. It's hard not to look at Calvin Ridley right now and say, well, is this? Did it just take a few weeks, a trade of Hopkins? It makes sense that it would, you know, just joining this team. Levis has been hurt. But Calvin Ridley's schedule is amazing. Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Jacksonville. Outside of Baltimore, maybe Minnesota, I can't think of three matchups that I would, and they're all three. I mean, Cincinnati is going to score points on you, and they don't have a good secondary. Jacksonville and Indianapolis, their defenses are so bad. Calvin Ridley, I know he got off to a really hard start.

But he should have a great stretch run. He's been good every single week without Hopkins. I would be buying in. I would be buying in for the stretch run. Since the buy week, he is receiving a 32% target share. And that includes a 39% target share this first week of Will Levis back. Of course, you should have a little bit of concern when Mason Rudolph has unlocking Calvin Ridley. The schedule for Levis is equally great. Just until you know, it's not just the wide receivers. Obviously, those are correlated. But Levis should be able to get some things done in this stretch. Yeah, for Calvin Ridley. For Calvin Ridley. Yes, to be clear. I just want it to be, you know, it's not something that he has to overcome great quarterback defenses is what I'm saying. Malik neighbors? That one's tough because you're probably just going to keep playing Malik neighbors the rest of the season. It's Baltimore, Atlanta, Indianapolis. Just what quarterback does he have? I think you're just happy about it. You're just happy that.

It's not actionable, you're just happy. Tyrone Tracy has tough matchups. When running backs have tough matchups and last year for DAC and CD, the reason we loved it wasn't just because they had good matchups, yay. But they had the specific matchups where you can't run against them. There are past funnel defenses where you are forced to throw the ball on purpose schematically or based on the personnel across the field. Those are the best targets. That's why I love. Baltimore, you're not running on Baltimore. Minnesota, you're not running on Minnesota very easily, either one of those. But you can pass the ball on them. So, um, Malik neighbors are going to start no matter what. So it's just, this is just good news. This is just like a cherry on top. Congratulations. You might have him back to, you know, he might have the best bread of a sandwich season of all time. You know what I mean? Get us off that hot start the first three weeks. A real brioche. Yeah, brings you, um, you know, an inside out Oreo.

Fingers are going to be sticky, but it's a lot of delicious cream. Have they done that yet? I hope not. You'd already nailed the analogy, and you jumped in on a new one. Just keep. Unnecessary. Keep laying it on. Yeah, but now we've got to talk to Nabisco. Inside Out Oreo, I can't believe that hasn't happened. I think there's a fingers problem. Have they done the Big Mac, the Big Mac double stuff Oreo? Oh, where there's an extra cooking in the middle? I mean, I just don't. Oh, I'm sure they've done that. I feel like a Big Mac, because that's like a Quatro stuff.