The TRUTH About Fantasy TEs in 2020 + Super Bowl Reactions - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/9

Alan Robbins is going to demand 145 targets. You know, he's going to come in and get that. And I think that will have a negative effect, whereas you've got George Kittle, you've got Mark Andrews that are in the conversation, maybe T.J. Hawkinson. You know, he is definitely in the second tier of tight ends behind Kelsey, but I think that it will not just be him there. Well, it'll be interesting because, you know, Mark Andrews is on a team with the same situation, a wide receiver, really, that.

Darren Waller was dealing with, and both of those teams could be destinations for Robinson or Ghaladay or one of those players. I think Devon is locked in for Waller. He will be, even if Alan Robinson comes in, I think you'll see the Jason special of. There'll be two targets on that team, and Darren Waller will be the other one. That should, if they don't do that, it's stupid. Agreed. So he moves the offense. Let all tight-ins and red zone targets.

teams target share, reception share. But it will be interesting to see who goes where in the big wide receiver roulette in the offseason. It was nice to see the touchdowns show up. The one stat I was focused on last offseason with Darren Waller was that he was essentially the players who had seen the volume that he saw last year, you know, over 1,100 yards.

They all score an average of seven plus touchdowns. His three last year was just absolutely outrageous. So it was just another win for... Positive regression for math. Yeah, for math. Those other numbers say that the touchdown number was an outlier and won't stay that low. All right, I've got some numbers for you to highlight the truth about how much better Waller and Kelsey really were than the rest of the tight ends.

Waller scored 74 fantasy points more than the Titan 3, Robert Tunyon. The gap between Tunyon and the Titan 20 was only 51 points. Yeah. So this is why Waller was on so many championship rosters because of the doubts. He didn't cost you. Exactly. He didn't cost you what Travis Kelsey did, but he was still one of really only.

two difference makers because we talk about Andrews is good or Kittle is good, but those guys were injured and had bad games. So there were really only two, you know, someone has to be the tight end three inconsistency, but there were only two consistent tight ends, period. Yeah, yeah. And then there's maybe the injury caveat that can be discussed about George Kittle and his season and, you know, what he gave you when he did play. But.

You're right. And you won championships with him, which adds to the point of Kelsey going higher if you think he can give you a number one season again, locked and loaded guaranteed production. Robert Tunyon was three. His consistency was sixth. The second half was far more consistent than the first half, at least in terms of not doing the tight end dance of, okay, a couple good games, a couple bad games. Yeah, the fascinating thing for Robert Tunyon, we talked about.

Kelsey, 145 targets. The Walleris, 145 targets. Robert Tunyon, 59, 59 targets, but 586 yards and 11 touchdowns. He was interesting because it felt like Robert Tunyon was not part of the plan.

for the Green Bay Packers. To start the season. I mean, they had just spent a draft pick on Jay Sternberger. I know there was some of that dynasty hope and hype for Sternberger. But Robert Tunyon was the guy who came through and just established that, no, I am great. I work with this offense. You need to get me involved. And that's really what happened. You see, like, from week eight on, he was a difference making tight end.

He feels like the biggest trap to me. Could be. Well, he's not even under contract yet. Well, there you go. But 11 touchdowns on 52 catches. What does Green Bay do at the wide receiver position? They dealt with injuries with Alan Lazard all year long. He would be the one that doesn't fit the profile of draft value to me. Because I imagine he will go higher than I would want to take him. Yeah, I mean, this isn't a volume.

receiver, and we are going to talk a lot about the regression that is clearly coming for Aaron Rogers. When you throw 48 touchdowns at 9.1% of your passes are a touchdown. That will inevitably come down. Aaron Rogers in his long-storied, great first ballot Hall of Fame career has thrown 9% before, and then the following season it came back down. That's way above his career average of six.

which is still a good number. So if the touchdowns are coming down and Tunyon was the touchdown reliant weapon, then he is the first guy up that I think is going to have a fantasy fall from grace. I will say it's a nice time to just highlight when you're scouting with data. Robert Tunyon.

was great in college. If you're looking in the dynasty past, this isn't a statistic that we made up. This has been out there for a few years, but it's the dominator statistic, which is what percentage of your team's yards and your team's touchdowns, what percent were you responsible for? And you take a look at these guys of what they did in college. Tunyon had a 38% dominator rating, which is...

spectacular like that that's an incredible amount of the production for a college team and we know that that there is a correlation between guys with huge dominator percentages going into the pros so the NFL missed on Robert Tunyon at the beginning you know in the draft process but it shouldn't be a shock that someone who was so good in college is actually pretty good in the pros and he's close friends with George Kittle so

Well, yeah. He's got to rub off. Which I think is good. Yeah. Okay. A little dangerous, though, right? Like, just feel like if you're hanging out with George Kiddle, you're living a little bit dangerously. He's cutting down trees. He's probably on a quad right now. Like right this moment he's on a quad. Ain't no helmet on that quad. Probably not. No way. You got to take the quad to cut the trees down. That's right. You cut the trees down with the quad. Oh. Yeah.

It's knocking trees down. I think, yeah. I don't know if that works. All right, T.J. Hawkinson at four, consistency rank of eight. His consistency of percentages perfectly highlight every single thing I thought about T.J. Hawkinson this year, which is 44% good games, zero great games, 25% busts, very reliable, 101 targets.

He was there and he was willing to catch the football. He did not make spectacular plays that I put my eyeballs on very often. And yet here he is. He was the tight in three from weeks one through 14 and was pretty close to Darren Waller until a collapse at the end, which, you know. That wasn't just Hawkinson. No. That was a collapse by the Detroit Lions and Matthew Stafford had a hand injury. Yeah. If you recall over those final few games, Hawkinson is extremely interesting. I know. I knew he was, I knew he finished well.

but really looking at its consistency chart of heat, you know, the majority of the time, or I guess not majority, because you're 44% good, but he did help your team. And if you're looking at the Detroit Lions who are burning it down to rebuild, and Marvin Jones doesn't come back, and Kenny Galladay does not come back, Hawkinson is pretty interesting to me. I have no idea, I don't have a gauge right now where his ADP will be, but Hawkinson,

you know, in the ninth round or so, if he does drop to there, becomes extremely interesting to me. That could be way too low. You look at the best tight ends, right? Travis Kelsey, he's one of two targets. Darren Waller, he's one of one target. Mark Andrews is one of two targets. And while Hawkinson is with Marvin Jones and Kenny Galladay, he's, you know, obviously.

at least third on the pecking order. If those guys go away and he is one of the primary targets, he'll be much better for fantasy. Yeah, I think I would go the other direction with Hawkinson. I mean, Gallaudy wasn't there all year, essentially. Marvin Jones was, but you lost the quarterback. You've spent the year bemoaning what it felt like to have Noah Fant with Drew Locke. Get ready for T.J. Hawkinson. A far less explosive. Far less athletic.

Goff is so much better than Drew Locke. I don't think that you're going to see an uptick for T.J. Hawkinson. He had an opportunity with Matthew Stafford for the majority of the year without Kenny Gallaudet. That being said, he was a second year tight end, which we know, like, tight ends don't break out that early. I mean... Not all tight ends break out also. Absolutely. But he was drafted as a hopeful star tight end in year two.

took a clear step forward and was very good for a second year tight in, not what we hoped, certainly didn't dominate. But now coming into year three and I... The only thing I disagreed with was you're saying he's going to get better. I don't think it gets better for him in the new scenario. It was my point.

Do you think the offense in Detroit is better without Matthew Stafford? Certainly not. But I do think that there is something to a 23-year-old tight end coming into that next year. I mean, usually you've got that year three is around when tight ends break up. Is the balance of that scale of the offense decreasing in potency, but the targets going up? T.J. Hawkinson could be 130 target guy. There's a lot unknown in the wide receiver course. So I know why that that's a feeling now.

I doubt he surpasses the target total. This could change in two weeks. He also led all tight ends and drops, which is something we saw in his rookie year. And we saw again in his second year. You know, Hockey Lees versus the hawk strap. It happened frequently pass to pass. But we'll see. We'll see what they do at wide receiver. Mark Andrews, consistency rank of three. Finished fifth at the position. It was a rocky road for the...

The Baltimore offense. And not the ice cream kind. No, which I'm a big fan of for the record. Chocolate ice cream is not that good. Are you a Rocky Road fan? Honestly, I never had it. I don't know what's in Rocky Road. Really? Let's take a shot here, Mike, live on the air. What do you think is in some Rocky Road ice cream? Well, I'm going to go with a chocolate ice cream base. Oh, man. Spoiled that one. All right, yeah. Which is great, by the way. Chocolate ice cream is fantastic. You are a big fan. It's so good.

Marshallows? Yeah, you got it. Is there another thing in there? There is another thing in there. Nuts? Yeah. What nut? You could really, you could. Ooh. You could nail it, Mike. Pecants? No. No. It's almonds. He said pecans. It's almonds. Dang. I thought about going cashew, but I didn't feel good about that one. I would never. Brazil nut? I would never have known what nut it was. Oh, really? It was chocolate ice cream.

marshmallows and nuts oh because you don't like it well yeah because chocolate ice cream base remember chocolate ice cream is good i mean this feels like i can already hear you saying don't hear what i'm not saying i like all ice cream what is the best base then vanilla vanilla yeah vanilla he's right about that but sometimes i mean it's like sometimes you got a chocolate milkshake or a vanilla milkshake uh well because chocolate milkshakes are made out of chocolate ice cream i of course get vanilla

Or strawberry. A vanilla milkshake is better than a chocolate. There is a reason that vanilla is an insult. Yes. Because it is so boring and so plain. Well, let's, okay. All right. Hold on. This is more important than anything we could be discussing. We're getting a little off track from my brand. I don't get a vanilla shake. I mean, sure. If I go to in and out where their options are, would you like vanilla or chocolate? Yeah. Okay, vanilla. But I'm getting an Oreo.

Cream cookies of cream milk shake. I'm getting, you know. You take a strawberry over a chocolate? I would take a strawberry over chocolate. You ever had a strawberry shake? Don't ask stupid questions. But, you know, I'm just saying chocolates at the bottom. Put those three in order. Chocolate vanilla strawberry. Chocolate vanilla strawberry. Okay. Okay. I don't do fake strawberry. Well, that is true. A lot of times it's vanilla ice cream with chocolate syrup in the shake. Yeah.

Yeah, because they're like, this vanilla is really vanilla. So let's take it up a notch. Well, it's hard to argue with the base argument, though. Like, it's a base for something. Yeah, chocolate. You know what's great? You like cookies and cream? You know what's awesome? Chocolate with Oreos. Fantastic.