Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - QB Rankings Part 2, News & Notes, Mailbag

philosophy thing too i don't want to draft depending on your team's makeup i think is how you make these he's going into back hack back half of the seventh round okay if your team is a little bit more consistent i like a guy that has upside of matthew stafford who okay maybe it's been a few years he threw he threw 41 touchdowns and he's a gun sling yeah he yeah he did but i think like ladenian tomlinson was also kicking butt

Okay, but you know Joe Flacco is not throwing 41 touchdowns. That is fair. That is factually guaranteed. Okay. I bet anything on that. And you know that a guy like Tony Romo is probably not throwing 41 either on that team. Probably not. And so probably the same with Carson Palmer. These are all guys you have ahead of him because you like their consistency. But if your team's makeup, if it's a little bit different and in the back half of the seventh round, I like the upside of a guy like Stafford. And so it depends a little bit to me.

I'm just talking in terms of your team makeup on what you want to take a chance on because I'd rather draft Matthew Stafford every single time over Joe Flacko. It's understandable where, and for me, I'm just going to ride that train to the edge of the cliff and take a quarterback, not in the seventh or eighth or ninth, unless there's one of my guys who I feel really, really confident in. I'm not going to settle for Matt Stafford. If I'm not going all in on the big guys, then I'm going to.

continue to wait. Very fair. Very fair. Let's move on to our consensus number 10, a guy that Mike is very high on. We both like him this year, but somehow the way we projected him, it just didn't end up as high as we thought. Eli Manning. Woo-hoo! So you love him, Mike. Lots of reasons that we could love him. We love what he has with Odell Beckham Jr. We love what he has with that offense coming into a second year.

Under McAdoo. We love the idea of Victor Cruz coming back. The evolution of Larry Dinell, and as Jason just pointed out, Shane Bering getting signed there. Rashad Jennings being healthy for a couple games. And Andre Williams, an offense that's growing. All of those things I like, but I just couldn't take the leap and put his stats where they needed to be to get up as high as you have him. So Eli Manning, is he the value pick of the 2015 fantasy draft? It's...

For me, it's shaping up that way. I will wager that people are going to start jumping on the bandwagon of the book of Eli as we get closer to... Denzel! As we get closer to the season, that what's funny about that, is Eli actually kind of used to play like Denzel from that movie, where he played like a blind guy.

Because he wasn't really sure which team he was supposed to throw the ball to. He was blind in that movie. I feel like that... Spoiler alert. When that... I feel like when that movie came out, Denzel was in every movie, right? Like, every movie that came out. When is he not in every movie? I feel like he's taking a little break. Ah, I love me some Denzel. Remember the Titans? Okay, so here's why I really like Eli. Now, speaking of quarterbacks who were great in 2011, Eli Manning.

Eli Manning threw... Oh, now you're on to 2011. No, I'm just saying this is a stat that you guys would like because it's four years old. That in 2011, Eli almost threw for 5,000 yards. I don't know if people realize that or if they just don't remember it. But he's had seasons where he's thrown a lot. Here's why I really like Eli Manning. Ben McAdoo comes in. He revamps the system. It's a completely new offensive scheme.

for Eli, and you could see it at the beginning of the year. Eli looked confused. He made more poorer, is that a word poorer? Poorer? Worst choices than Eli used to make. But he finished the season with his highest completion percentage at 63%. He threw for 4,400 yards, 30 touchdowns, only 14 picks. It was the highest QBR.

of his career. Are we officially, is QBR really taken over instead of pass a rating? I think they're both used pretty good. I look at them both. But, so he had a QBR rating, which that's not really Eli's thing, as we know, he's really a ride the defense clutch guy. But with ODB coming in, second year, Ruben Randall, now I'm not, I'm going to be hesitant on Ruben Randall. He's your number one this year, right?

Yeah, he's a top five. But Ruben Randall is still very young, and he has the makeup to be a huge weapon in this league. While he was disappointing for the majority of the league, the last two games, he came on extremely strong. And we know that teams will adjust. They're not going to let Beckham run wild the way he did last year.

Someone's going to need to take the pressure off, and I think Randall can do it. Larry Dinell showed flashes at times. The Giants are still talking him up. Like he can be somebody. I'm not guarantee that he's going to be somebody, but I think he's an effective weapon. Shane Vereen brings a huge dynamic to that offense for the screen, just a little screen of the running back, the checkdowns for a running back who can take it 15, 20 yards.

maybe even score a couple times. Rashad Jennings, like you said, when healthy, Rashad Jennings was a good running back, and he was a good pass-catching running back. I think in the second year of the McAdoo system, Eli Manning is going to thrive. That's how you have him so high. Yeah, I think he's going to thrive. And on top of that, where you can draft him is going to be, he's, to me...

the quarterback who I look for that is a league-winning quarterback where I can set my entire team up, and then I snag a quarterback very late, who is going to be great. Late and great. That's my philosophy. I take it to the bank. Matt Ryan in the sixth. Late and great. Matt Ryan in the sixth, Eli Manning in the eighth. Oh, then still Matt Ryan in the sixth. Because I like Matt Ryan that much more. Russell Wilson in the fourth, Eli Manning in the eighth. That's, Eli Manning, that's easy. Those are all good points.

It just didn't add up to me. I actually have Eli Manning as my... You don't like 2 plus 2 equaling 4? Well, I like... Listen to me. I've got Eli Manning as my number 12. I have him leading the league in passing yards this year. 4,900 yards. And you know what? That's actually... You think no one's thrown over 5K? I do not have anybody projected over 5K this year. I found the same thing with me, and it's not that I don't think somebody's going to throw over. He just throws interceptions.

He throws a lot of interceptions, and he doesn't run, and he's a lot of risk. So you're projecting him. You have to have him, what? I have him at 31 touchdowns. How many touchdowns do you have him thrown? He's got him at 35, and I've got him at 30. But the real difference here in our projections, because we talked about Eli, you know, throughout this whole offseason, and I think all three of us...

Yeah, we all like Eli. We all like him. We all see the reason for improvement, the value to where you get him. And I'm a big proponent of Eli. But then when I did my stats, he came out at 14th for me. And that was one of the biggest surprises for me. Yeah, because you got Cam Newton up so high. Clogging up your shorts. The running quarterback. Well, we got to keep in mind, though, that this, you know, again, like we said, these statistics that we're talking about and the rankings we're talking about are standardized scoring. So.

you know, Eli's going to get exactly like two rushing yards and zero rushing touchdowns. So that's where the flip is there. But I look through our stats, and the difference is turnovers. A little bit in the touchdowns, but the big difference here is turnovers. How many do you have them?

I've got him throwing 18 picks, but also six fumbles. And so you've got a total of, I believe, 18. I have them at 16 turnover. Yeah, 16 total turnovers. I've got them at 24. And just, you know, in comparison here, you know, going back a couple years, two years ago, he had 31 total turnovers, which is...

I mean, ludicrous. Then he was terrible. He improved greatly to last year with 21 turnovers. And so, you know, historically, you go back and look, you know, throughout. He's always been a turnover machine. So that's where I've got him at 24, which I think might actually be a little high. I could probably drop, you know, to those or maybe expect him to put 21 again. But that's one of the big differences between where we have them and where you have them is the total turnovers. And so that's a question that when you're drafting him is kind of,

what do you think he's going to be able to do as far as ball protection? And that's where when I start asking myself that question, I kind of go, this newer offense with shorter passes and with Vereen there for some of those escape routes, I think might actually help his turnover number, which would bode well for what you're saying, Mike. But I certainly cannot fix my numbers to get him number five on standardized scoring. And that's Elon Manning.

Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, he's definitely a value choice. I do think he's going to climb up a little bit. I think he's going to be one of those guys that's kind of the hot ascending quarterback. He is the Jay Cutler of this year. Yeah, I agree with that. That's a good take. If he starts creeping up into like the back half of the sixth round. No, no, no, no. No, but he's only sitting in the eighth right now, I think. Or back of the seventh. So.

Yeah, but I think he's going to get a lot of good publicity. That's what I mean. He might sneak up a little bit. He might sneak up. And that's where I'm saying. If he starts getting into the back half of the six, that's way too high for me. So obviously our rankings are going to keep changing. They're going to keep moving and being molded to the off season that we have here. It's one of the things that I think is important. You have to, as a fantasy player, you have to change your mind. If new information comes along, you have to change your mind. Because...

Those are the things that make a big difference. And we are talking about a gap between these guys that isn't huge. We talked to Aaron Rogers, maybe Andrew Locker, is in this top tier. But a lot of these guys in the secondary tier, it's the details that are going to matter. Listeners, if you're listening, please, we're debating all the finer points of all these guys because that's what we constructed today's show about.

But Andy brings up the most important point you, this entire group of everybody we talked about in our rankings are separated by meager fantasy points. I mean, we're not talking, we're talking about less separation, like in my own personal rankings. All these guys we're talking about, less separation between the first guy we talked about and the last guy we talked about, then between Aaron Rogers.

And then the next, and then Andrew Luck. I mean, these are all lumped together. That's where what matters more in these guys is average draft position, is where you're going to get them. I want the guy I can get last out of these guys. That's such a good point. There's eight points of difference between Peyton Manning at my number four and Drew Breeze down at my number nine. Right, exactly. I have, speaking of new information, it's actually old, but it might be new.

I'm giving you guys one more chance to get off of Matt Stafford. Two guys that finished ahead of Stafford last year. Joseph Flacco, Jay Cutler. Finished ahead of Snapback. That's called Calvin Johnson was injured. Man, you don't like Stafford. Man, you don't like Snapback. I'm giving you a chance. Hey, you know what? Stafford, Cutler, they're the same. They're the same to me. They're the guy that I'm not surekin win a title. If Cutler had Calvin Johnson, I would like.

Cutler Moore. Yeah. I mean, it's totally true. It's the weapons. He can throw the ball up to Tate and Calvin Johnson and just get junk out of it. All right. Ebroon. Let's move it on. Mailbag. I missed my cue. Striper. Come on, man. I was saving my voice. I got a big show after the, this show. Tempted to replay that so you can redeem yourself, but we'll just.

We'll just save it. I love the Striper tweets we started getting last week. It was spectacular. The Yellow and Black Army. You're going to get hired away, I'm telling you. So, yeah, that's our one through ten. I guess we should, real quickly, I'll just go through those. We have Rogers, Luck, Wilson, Ryan, Matt Ryan, that is, Peyton, Ryan Tanahill, then Drew Breeze, Cam Newton, Matt Stafford, and Eli Manning. So like I said, they'll be ever-changing. So let's get into the mailbag. Let's answer a few.

Listener questions. This one comes from Daniel S out here in Arizona. Yeah. His question is this. I guess he has two questions. He says, whoa, whoa, whoa. I know. One question for listener. Offseason we allow too, Jason. Oh, all right. Where do you see Hopkins this year? Where will he be drafted and where will he finish? So I'll let one of you address his first question and one of you address his second. So who wants the Hopkins question? I will field the question.