Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - QB Rankings Part 2, News & Notes, Mailbag

Consistent. So, Rogers Luck Wilson, Ryan Manning, Tanna Hill Breeze. And now we come to number eight on our board. Cam Newton. Yeah. Cam Newton. Now, there is a huge gap between you two. Jason, you have Newton all the way up at number five. Five. Cinco. Mike, you have him at number 12. And I have him exactly where his ADP or his...

Yeah, his ADP is quarterback-wise. Right now he's the ninth quarterback off the board. That's where I have him. So let's get takes from both of you because you have them so differently. Let's let Jason talk about why he likes him, and then Mike, you can poop all over him. Yeah, I know Mike's not big on Cam. I'm actually really excited for Cam Newton this year. Last year, he was injured. He was injured in the off season. He was coming off of a surgery. He had a bunch of problems there. He also had...

Absolutely no receivers. He lost his number one receiver, and Old Man Smith went away. And there were so many things stacked against him, even car accidents stacked against him. He had problems with all of that. And if you look at his stats from the years prior, and even last year, you're talking about a guy who puts up so many...

stats, his rushing stats are great. I mean, you're talking about 700 yards, 700 yards. And last year, you know, he put up 539 yards on the ground with an injured ankle and missing two games. So, you know, you might go, oh, he's, he's lower, he's, you know, he went from.

you know, being around 700 yards to being around 500 yards, but he actually missed two games. So I'm expecting him to be back up at the 650 yards on the ground and more touchdowns on the ground. I mean, he scored 14 touchdowns on the ground his rookie year. He's going to get more weapons. In fact, he's already got a little bit more weapons right now. And so I see for where he's being drafted, from what his talent is on the field, from...

The reasons, we have actual logical reasons that he would rebound over the year prior. I love Cam Newton this year from where you're going to draft him and what you can get from him because he can be a guy that will put up 45 fantasy points in a game. And you have him above Peyton, you have him above Tennehill, Breeze, Stafford, Brady, Romo. So you have him number five overall. Mike, what say you, buddy?

is the anti-Ryan Tannehill. Cam Newton's stats have gone down every single year since he exploded into the league with his sensational rookie year. He came in through 4,000. Next year, 38, next year 33, next year 31. Granted, he'd missed two games. So I'll go ahead and bump him up to the 33. That's fine. His touchdowns...

They didn't go down every single year, but his second year, 19, last year, 18, his running yards have gone down every single year. You just can't, I think the team is realizing you can't risk your franchise quarterback that much, where they're still going to let him do his thing, they're still going to let him vultures a couple touchdowns every once in a while. But I just, when I watch Cam Newton, he just doesn't seem like that.

great of a court of it. He's very erratic. Sometimes he's on, but more often he is way off. On top of that, the offensive line in Carolina is awful. And not only are they awful, they got worse. Do you know who's playing left tackle, who is slotted into play left tackle right now? Michael Ower. Ooh, the blind side. I did see that. They signed him, and now they said he's their left tackle. Yeah. And if he's playing left tackle, Cam Newton is in trouble.

So what do you think Cam Newton's going to have to do when guys are chasing him? What's Cam going to do? He's going to try and run, but he's going to get sacked. He's going to get beat up just like he did last year. And where Cam Newton has the Superman mentality, which a lot of these guys in league have it, where he'll get beat up and he'll stay in the game at the detriment of his own team where...

I can't remember who they were playing, but there was a primetime game, or Cam Newton was just getting annihilated. And there was, even I had this, please, just put the backup in. It's pain, but he can't even stand up, but he continues to play because he wants to be Superman. But I just, I see that happening again. I'd see him getting the one shot. Something is going on with his ankles. And when I say that, I'm not saying I know any medical information that he's hurt right now.

But he has a, he's shown a consistently getting injured. Yeah, there, thank you. Tendency to get injured because of his play style, where he's big and he wants to shrug guys off and absorb the hit. But I just, I don't think he can continue to do it. Combine that with the, his stats going down every single year. And I just don't like him. I agree with Jason. He's going to put up those. He'll have a week or two where he puts up 45 points. It's going to happen.

But are you willing to live with his garbage games to get that one 45 where he's, yeah, he won the week for me. He lost me three weeks, but he won that one. When you're drafting him as an average draft position of nine and you've got that kind of upside.

And that kind of a floor, really, with running, just the fact that he's going to run the ball, you're not going to get a goose egg or, you know, a five or six point game. You know, for where you're drafting him, that's why I really like him. Also, you know, he put up 24 touchdowns two years ago, and then he lost his entire wide receiver core. So you've got to factor that in, the fact that he's got an entire offseason with Calvin Benjamin, an offseason with, you know, his own health. So, you know, I think I'll play Switzerland here. And, uh,

I'll split the difference with you guys. I don't think he'll be as bad as he was last year. I think there's a couple reasons why. His wide receiver core is going to be a little bit better. He's not going to be coming off the injury, and he's hopefully not going to get into another rollover accident and have that type of problem. And the other big piece is the defense. The defense really rebounded in the second half of the year. They were a great defense the year before. I think he's...

I think he's right about where I have him. He's that eight, nine guy who I would take an eighth or ninth round and be overwhelmed with happiness. He's probably not going to be there. He's probably not going to be there. So let's move on to number nine on our consensus. This is another guy who I really like. Another guy you hate. You hate. I have him at six, so I'm the highest among us you haven't met.

This is Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions. I have him at 6. Jason has him at 8. Mike has him all the way down at 17, which I think is the singular most bold. That's the most polar of our list, I believe. Of the entire list. Well, maybe till you hear my number 5 character. So I have him at 6. I have him ahead of Tanna Hill. I have him ahead of Breeze. I have him ahead of Newton. I think Matt Stafford bounces back because Calvin Johnson is healthy in that offense.

And when you put Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate together, a lot of question marks for me at the running back position on that team and more question marks on the defense, I don't think their defense is going to be quite as good as it was last year. And so for me, I think it's very reasonable to have Matthew Stafford at number six overall. I have him projected for a little over 4,700 yards, 31 touchdowns.

About 100 yards on the ground, nothing extreme or crazy. But that puts them at number six on my board. What do you guys think about Matt Stafford? How do you put them at 17? Let me read some guys off of your list that you have ahead of Matt Stafford. You want to hear these? Sure. Sam Bradford. Philip Rivers. Mm-hmm. Joe Flacco. Is he above him? He's at 16 for you. Oh, one. One slot. I stand behind it. Cam Newton. Big Ben.

Tom Brady, Tony Romo. Still feeling good? Yeah. Carson Palmer. Oh, I feel great about that. I feel like we're going to have to bring Carson Palmer up just because you have them in your top ten. I sure do. But we're not talking about him yet. No, we're not. So Matt Stafford, why do you have him so low? Why do you think that... Is this just a trend for you? Or is this... Yeah, it's called a trend of getting worse every single year, just like my friend Cam Newton, where...

We're all still living on the fumes because it's down to fumes of Matt Stafford's 2011 season where he threw for over 5K 41 touchdowns. The following year after that, he almost had the 5,000 yards. He had 20 touchdowns. The year after that? That was the year that Calvin went down on the one like seven times. You remember that? Yes, he will, yeah. But the next year, 29 touchdowns. Last year, 22 touchdowns. Matt Stafford is

He's not a, what I would consider a great quarterback. He is a volume quarterback. Now, the problem with a volume quarterback is when he's not getting volume. Last year was the lowest attempts of his career. He threw the ball only 602 times. The new coaching staff in Detroit, I don't think, is, they're not the freewheeling, what was the old Lions coach? Now I'm drawing a blank on his name. Caldwell?

No, Caldwell's the current coach. No, the fiery guy. Joke coach. Oh, Schwartz. Yes, yes, Jim Schwartz and Scott Linehan, who left and went to Dallas and completely revamped his offense, by the way. But I just don't see the volume happening for Stafford. And while I do like Golden Tate probably more than the regular person, and I'm not really down on Calvin Johnson by any means.

It's just about volume. It's about quality of offense. And can he, I mean, he hasn't thrown for over 30 touchdowns since 2011. Can he really do it? Or before 2011. Before or after. There was only 2011 that he threw for 30. And I believe before 2011 was the, when Matt Stafford was Sam Bradford and just kept getting season injuries. So I, I don't know, just all of those things add up to me to,

I don't want to hitch my wagon to Matt Stafford. Well, I'm, you know, like Andy was on cam. I am between you guys. So I think I've got the tempered expectations here of Matt Stafford. Here's why I think he's going to be much better than you think, Mike, although I still am not desperately in love with him. He's getting Calvin Johnson back.

And Calvin Johnson is the reason that Matt Stafford can be a good quarterback. We've all seen it throughout his entire career. Matt Stafford goes as Calvin Johnson goes. So I'm interested to see where you're going to project Calvin Johnson this year. Clearly, I think he's going to be top 10, right? I mean, you can't drop him out of that. Clearly. In which case, those stats go to Matt Stafford. Another thing that I think is huge for Matt Stafford's value is Nomican Sue leaving town.

They're not going to be able to be the team they were last year from the standpoint of, I mean, they were averaging, I feel like 17 points a game for like half of the season. The Lions were not putting up points. They weren't an offensive-minded team, and they're not going to be able to be that way. So last year, I think, is a very big aberration for Matthew Stafford. His attempts are going to go up, although his completion percentage isn't that great.

His touchdowns are going to go up. I've got him projected for 28 touchdowns, so still not 30. I think 46, 50 yards is what I've got him projected at, which is still probably below what he's averaged over the last four years. And so that puts him at number eight on my board. I think that that's where he belongs. But one of the things that we know, and Mike, you are the Mr. Proponent of pointing this out, is that Stafford is Terribla.

at the second half of the year. You come to December. Don't count on him in December. Get rid of him. But that means his stats are better in the beginning. And so, you know, when you're talking about the fantasy strategy of getting a quarterback to stream, getting them late, Stafford might be there late. He might put up some big numbers right out in the beginning and then be able to stream and drop them whenever you want. So I like him. I expect him to be better than last year. What is the over-under on Matt Stafford?

of how many times we see him with his hat on forwards, with his snapback hat on forwards. Zero. Zero? Zero is not all right. I'll set it at one. What do you take? What do you used to say? He's under the bleachers? I don't know. Back behind the bleachers with the kids in high school? Yeah. Yeah, he's Matthew McConaughey. All right, all right, all right. Yeah, so Stafford is a guy. Now, this gets into a little bit of a,