The TRUTH About Fantasy QBs in 2018, Part 1

degradation of skills. Fair. According to the NFL networks, Ian Rappaport, the Redskins are, quote, planning as if Alex Smith will miss all of 2019. He had the gruesome injury. It's a bummer. To his leg. Then that followed up with an infection. Struggles recovering. Prayers go out for Alex Smith, the man that, you know, there is a chance that he doesn't play football again.

And that's still a reality. But what happens in Washington? They're going to draft a quarterback, I'd imagine. Or do you think they'll... Colt? Do you think they'll... McCoy? Yeah. Would they lean on Colt? If they thought Alex Smith would come back at some point in the year? Colt McCoy is a great backup quarterback. He can keep you treading water for a few games. But if you go into the season, the Colt McCoy is your starting quarterback. I think that's Washington...

throwing a towel in on the season, and Gruden can't do that. So they go with a rookie, you think? I think they're probably going to move forward as if Alex Smith is never going to come back. Joe Flacco? I was going to say the difference between free agency and rookies is a difference in pay. Yeah, you can't afford it when you're paying Smith. When you're paying Alex Smith, you're not going to be able to bring in a Flacco.

who will still command a lot of money because of the position. Whereas if you draft one, which I imagine they will attempt to draft their guy this season. I got a snake, man. You could get him on the cheap. Get Blake Bortles over there. He's the answer for every team. But the reality is. He's the question and the answer. Alex Smith, he's 34 years old. If they don't expect to have him this year, then he would be 35 out of.

you know, the league for a year and a half, a year and a half, coming off of a gruesome injury. You have to, this is the NFL. You have to, you know, prepare for the future. Washington's picking 15. So, yeah, they're not completely out of the range of a quarterback right there. No, that could be Kylie Murray range. Yeah, good. Middle of the first. That was today's news and notes. Look, with fantasy football ramping down, now is the time to ask your commissioner if you're using the right platform. Check out the sleeper app.

The Sleeper, platform, they bring us news and notes each and every day. We are going to get into the truth at the quarterback position. I want to welcome Brooks back into the office too. Yeah, Brooksie. Your first vacation in quite some time, and you decided to go freeze to death. Is this correct? Yeah, I've been trying to get the friends and family to move out here and they're not doing that. How's that working? Not good? Now's the time for the pitch. Isn't it like negative 600 degrees up there? Yeah, I like it here. Stay safe north.

Stay safe beyond the wall. Winter is coming. Oh my goodness. I'm just glad we made it back before any drama in the airport. Yes. Goodness. You want answers? I think I'm entitled. You want answers. I want the truth. Handle the truth. All right. Let's talk about fantasy football quarterbacks in 2018, the truth about your starter. What did you actually get? And this is obviously one of the more interesting positions to talk about each and every year because

We on this show, we generally subscribe to the philosophy of drafting your quarterback at a later point in your fantasy draft. Oh, and this year was slam dunk this year. Why don't you explain a little bit of what we'll be looking at in this segment? So we're going to be looking at quarterbacks would they put up a great game, a good game, or they ruined your week with a bust. And because honestly, a bust at the quarterback position is pretty tough to come back from.

The good news is generally you can get a good game from nearly anybody if they're put in the right position. So how do you define those? Those are great games, more than 25 points. That's on average a top three performance. Good is more than 17 points. That's usually in the quarterback one range. And then fewer than 15 points hurts you because they've busted. Yeah, you're outside the top half of the quarterbacks playing in the league that week. And this is based on four points per passing touchdown scoring. So?

We look at this number each and every year. It is in part the backbone of our, you know, late round quarterback philosophy. If you look at all of the NFL weeks, including week 17, there were a total number of 41 different quarterbacks that put up a QB1 week. And if you're thinking, hmm, what? 41 quarter. There's only 32 teams. That's right.

That's how easy it is. That's how easy it is. And you're thinking like, that number's wrong. No, this is, this was a down year for that number. Usually that number is like near 45. Here's, I'll play the voice of public opinion. Oh, poorly. Okay. But, but. Yes. Voice of public opinion. Yes. It's easy to say that, but it's not easy to pick the right one to star. Oh, nonsense.

That's what I say to that. But isn't that the argument? I mean, it's easy to say that 41 different quarterbacks finish as QB1s, but I think there is something to, I mean, obviously your goal is to identify somebody late that you can start each and every week. Yeah. But how many people were really in that category even every week started this year? Here's the issue. It's not someone you have to start week in and week out.

But the issue is those guys that you know are just locked in as number one picks, right? The Russell Wilson's, the Aaron Rogers, you spend up for them. Well, it turned out you were wrong because they weren't top five at their position. Neither one of them were. And what you're sacrificing there when you take someone else is monumental. You're missing out on a player where you need multiple of them going every single week. So as far as drafting the right guy late,

I mean, look, you know, obviously some people saw the Patrick Mahomes thing coming, probably not to, definitely not to this degree. He was listed as one of the breakouts in our ultimate draft kit this last year. So you could see it, but nobody knew it was coming to this degree. But you don't have to, you don't have to pick a guy that goes Patrick Mahomes in order to succeed at the draft. Because you can still pair those guys together. You can have a couple guys on your roster, Big Ben and, you know,

even DAC this year had good games. Kirk Cousins, you know, you could grab some of these guys and kind of piecemeal the weeks together and end up with a better season than if you just took Aaron Rogers and said every week, you're my guy. Well, and you get to make kind of a call on how this worked out this year when we break down the truth because we're going to go position or player by player. Number one on the year was obviously Patrick Mahomes. He was the number one overall fantasy quarterback. He was the number one most consistent quarterback. 94% of his games were good games.

So 94% of his games were QB1 weeks. That's pretty good. 63% of the time he finished in the top three. That is the kind of performance. That's devastating. That wins you championships. And he tied Peyton Manning's magical 2013 season with 14 QB1 weeks. That is the most in history. And he was absolutely dominant. You don't need us to tell you that at all. But you saw this weekend and week out.

He disappointed fantasy owners in week 15 because you had come to expect something, really weeks 14 and 15. You didn't get that elite performance. But it was still great. But look, you can't really complain about anything when it comes to Patrick Mahomes. The only thing you can discuss is how does this translate into the future? 50 touchdowns, over 5,000 yards, only 12 interceptions, another 272 on the ground, and then how high is he worth taking next year?

Based on that truth. The conversation around Pat Mahomes is going to be fascinating because what he did this year was worth an early round pick. Even everything we're saying about don't draft a quarterback early. What he did this year, if you had drafted him in the first or second round. Yeah, if you knew it. It was absolutely worth it. So the question's going to be, okay, so where does this guy who cannot be stopped? You saw it every single week and he can do things that other players literally.

don't have the physical ability to do. Then he adds the mental ability. You add Andy Reed. Everything looks good. I can tell you right now, I am probably going to be off Pat Mahomes in next year's draft. Because while I do think he's amazing, I think he's got a good shot to repeat at, even at being the quarterback one, I don't think that it's reasonable or probable.

To expect 5,050? Yeah, I mean, he's not going to be able to put up those numbers year over year. It's just, it's impossible. All right. Mike, I just saw your message. We'll share that with the Foot Clan in a little while. All right. Here's what I'll say about that, Jason. The argument that you made, it kind of reminds me of the case being made for Michael Vic after his magical Philadelphia year.

can do things no other player can do, put up numbers that no other player can put up. Obviously, he was not worth that high investment. Also, since 2004, there hasn't been a repeat number one quarterback. That doesn't mean he can't do it. The odds are still, like if you're handicapping it, it's going to be Patrick Mahomes next year. But it's very difficult no matter how good you are. Peyton Manning has had a 50 touchdown year. Tom Brady has had a 50 touchdown year. He was the only third, right? He's only the third quarterback to hit the 50 plus. Exactly. But even those former quarterbacks that have done it.

They came back to Earth a little bit. Maybe you run the ball a little bit more. Maybe your defense is better. It is difficult. I won him on my team. Don't get me wrong. Because I think regardless of where he finishes next year, he's going to win weeks for people with those monstrous weeks. It's the 8.6 touchdown percentage. The 8.6% of his attempts turned into touchdowns when the league average is about 4.5. 4.4. I don't have it right in front of me. It's like the Deshaun Watson factor of last year. Right. Carson wins.

Not to rain on his parade. You know, he had a nice touchdown. A little sprinkle. To his longtime teammate Eric Ebron in the Pro Bowl. Those two are just attached to the hip according to Jason. Oh, yeah. Jason Witten. Now, did you see video? He also apparently broke the Pro Bowl trophy? No. Witten or Mahomes? Witten. Witten managed to call Mahomes. Is it because of the blade hands? He sliced right through. Kia!

All right, we are going to, we'll get to number two. It gets pretty interesting, pretty fast at the quarterback position. Before we get to number two, Maddie Ice himself, I want to thank a brand new sponsor for sponsoring today's podcast, and that is Cavo. All right, you can clean up your remote control clutter in time for the Super Bowl with the control center by Cavo. You plug in.

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That's LinkedIn.com slash footballers to get 50 bucks off the first job post. LinkedIn.com slash footballers. Terms and conditions do apply. All right. The reason I alluded to it earlier, Mike sent me a very important update. I did. Do you think that the- Ladies and gentlemen. Thank you, Jason. Do they care? No. Are we going to tell them? Have we had the Michael Keaton discussion yet?

What? I mean, did we bring, do we bring to light? We love him. We brought it to light on the show that he loves us back, right? Yes, yes. We got the tweet back from Keaton. It was a pivotal moment in all three of our lives. I mean, it's like top five for sure. theoretically, if we ever need a resume again. Yeah, loved by Michael Keaton. It will be. That's going on my LinkedIn post. So, Mike, tell the people my reaction to him loving, reacting to us. Andy is.