Fantasy Football 2018 - The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs in 2017, Part 1

Yeah, if they bring in a vet, like, you know, what you just named, Sam Bradford even, maybe Tedrick Bridgewater, then. Brett Farr. Oh, he still got it. He still got the cannon. What about Josh McCown? No. Well, that is interesting because, you know, he played with Larry. What about Ryan Fitzpatrick? No, definitely. I just like Josh McCown that he can finish where he started. Oh, my gosh. Back in the 70s? Yes. Michael Thomas, number six on the ranks.

Number six on the consistency ranks. That's how you do it, Michael Thomas. It's very consistent. Look, this was a funny year for Michael Thomas, but the numbers bear out how it feels. Just wait until you hear the great and busts. Yeah, he was 104 for 1245 and 5. Nothing to be upset about with those numbers. 149 targets. No great defense splits. No great home road splits. Actually, a little worse at home, which is strange. But he was great 6% of the times. He busted 6% of the time.

And he lived in the middle. He lived in the middle. He was wide receiver six. Consistency rank six. Oh. Six percent of his games were great. Six percent of his games were bust. No, I'm not marking the beast because we're going quachro. Oh, all right. We're safe. We made it. But Michael Thomas. Yeah, but that's one game, by the way. Six percent is one great game? There's one bus game and everything else he was just kind of like. There's another wide receiver we're going to talk about a little bit later.

that you think, this guy, I paid up the draft pick for him, and he was a bust for my team, and you're staring at him as a wide receiver won, and that's why Michael Thomas felt like a bust. 6% of his games were great. He never carried your team, but 50% good. That's tough to do.

I'll say this, looking into it, and I know who you're going to talk about in a little bit, because it's really surprising. But there are those players, like a lot of people that drafted Michael Thomas were disappointed in Michael Thomas. You shouldn't be. You definitely shouldn't have been. For where you got him, he performed, he did enough. But it does say, this is what it says to me. It says that when you're playing fantasy football,

You need to put a little bit of extra weight on the ability to carry, the ability to have those Antonio Brown weak winning games. It's just difficult because you don't want a guy that can only do that or go away. That's why we're talking about balancing your roster when you're drafted. Yes, but up at the beginning because there's just, there's not that many people that can give you any weak winning games. So when you're in that first round, I think that's the issue. If you're drafting a guy in the first round, you have to get those weak winning performances.

I actually agree with that. I mean, we're going to talk about Jarvis Landry. He's got the same amount of great games of Jarvis Landry. That's the problem. You drafts of Michael Thomas thinking you might get, you know, four or five week-winning performances. He gave you the same as Jarvis Landry, and you come to expect Jarvis Landry to actually be a more functional wide receiver, too, on your fantasy roster. We did see a complete shift, though, of the New Orleans Saints offense. That was not, I don't say. It was definitely not expected.

No, but we did know that he was going to have to step into the wide receiver one role in lieu of Brandon Cooks who made the big plays. A lot of people just wanted to take Brandon Cooks and the big plays and just give him to Michael Thomas and we didn't get those. Right, yes. But I mean, over 100 receptions, over 1,200 yards. The issue was the touchdowns of we did not see Mark Ingram and Alvin Camara, Super Camaro, becoming the go-to.

for the New Orleans Saints offense. That's the difference. You didn't get a 5,000-yard season from Drew Brees because they didn't need it. But shouldn't that be a lesson to us as fantasy prognosticators that when you're in the off-season and these things are laid out before you, there are very, look, the most valuable thing that you have when you talk about any of these wide receivers is multi-year stretches of productivity. Because you have guys like Michael Thomas who had one good years of rookie.

and you cannot perfectly project what that team is going to do, what the offense is going to do, Sean Payton, no Brandon Cooks, when you have consistency from a team perspective, not just a player, quarterback, offensive coordinator, scheme, all that stuff that you get with Antonio Brown, that you get with players that have done it multiple years, that's when, you know, we didn't know, like you said, to be fair, we didn't know, but we didn't know, that's the point. But it was, it wasn't something that you could have projected.

I mean, yeah, you can per- Well, my point is you can, can't you project that you don't have two years of consistent performances back to that? Yes, but you can say it's the same head coach, same offensive philosophy, same quarterback. So that's why I think it's not, I would not beat myself up if I drafted Michael Thomas and felt like I made a mistake. No, number six, number six. So Jarvis Landry was number seven. And half-point scoring.

Not seven to me. And yet was the fourth-ranked, fourth most consistent fantasy-wide receiver, 112 receptions on 160 targets, under 1,000 yards, nine touchdowns. That's the big one. That one saved the season, so to speak. Different quarterbacks than we expected Tanna Hill going down, Jay Cutler coming in. Only great 6% of the time, but good, 63% of the time. So 63% of his games, he was in the top 24 category.

See, I actually think, forget, forget fantasy. I think Jarvis Landry is a top-notch wide receiver. In real life, I think he is an elite level talent and had bad quarterback play, has had mediocre quarterback play for a long time.

But if you look back at this year where he was drafted as he kept slipping down in drafts because Devante Parker coming up, I think he was one of the better picks this year. He got the touchdowns to help him out. He was super consistent. And for a guy that you're going to get in those kind of early middle rounds, what more can you ask for? If you look at who is able to put up the weak winning performances, they all go.

you know, in that first, second round. So when you're looking later in your draft, I think I'm looking for a guy like Jarvis Landry, who finished as the fourth most consistent wide receiver really didn't have many games that killed you, even if you go higher and you say, okay, you know, like a wide receiver 30 or 40, he still only had four games on the season where he wasn't a wide receiver 30. That's a really low percent for wide receivers.

If I'm plugging a guy like that in as my second wide receiver, use him in a flex, I love it. As long as you're paying second wide receiver price, which you did this last year. He's the guy that you love having in the lineup. Now, he's a free agent. See, the price for him is a big question. And there are those that want to believe he's going to be the next chain moving wide receiver in New England, that he's going to be picked up and signed by the Patriots. The most recent report that I have from late December was that

Look, Jarvis Landry and Miami, they've exchanged contract proposals, kind of out of standstill. Got in a big fight with Kenyon Drake. Kind of seems like Adam Gaze is talking about him in a negative light in the sense that hard to control him. He has some of the same things going on that Oda Buckham Jr. has had gone in New York. His good buddy. He plays with fire. Love him. Agree with Jason. Great player.

Not sure he goes somewhere and puts up better numbers than what he had in Miami. He sent him to New York. I mean, with, with O'Dowell. I mean, I don't think he will be back with Miami. I agree with you. Because that's where I would handicap. He's a second round pick. So this guy, and he has vastly outperformed, his second round draft stock. He deserves to be paid, and he is going to take nothing less than getting paid. So I don't think Miami is going to give him that contract.

I'm not sure to where he will end up, but I'm with Jason that I think Jarvis Landry is one of the better wide receivers in the league. The one nice thing I'll say about him leaving and going to another team is the fact that we have seen Jarvis Landry with different head coaches and different quarterbacks always be utilized the same way. So I think if he goes to another team, we can have a little bit more confidence that, yeah, that coach is probably going to do the same thing. Pepper him with targets, keep him on these short routes, use him the way that he's.

made to be used. Dynasty football, Dynasty fantasy football question here. With Jarvis Landry, I know we like, we like him, we like the receiver. If you had the opportunity at this time, would you be buying or selling Jarvis with the unknown moving forward? To piggy back and comment on what you said, Jay, I'd be selling him because I think that while you're right, a coach is going to use him the way that he meant to be used.

there's every chance that he goes to a team that has a better wide receiver core than what he has in Miami. There's never been a competing force. Parker's never become that. Stills has never been volume. If he went to a place, hypothetically New York or any place with an outside one that actually receives target volume, that would be my concern about these. Because he's needed 100 plus receptions to be this kind of guy.

Or, I mean, nine touchdowns. I don't know how much you can count on that from his size. He's normally a six touchdown guy. So give him 95 and 6, and he's not in this category anymore. Right. That's fair. That's fair. You know, because of his age, I don't think I would buy him right now because right now owners aren't scared of him leaving. I don't think we're into next year's offseason mentality. But I would wait a couple months if he leaves, if you get scared. He's still only 25 years. I think he's good. So I would be willing to buy.

If he got signed by New England, for example, you'd be able to trade him at the Brandon Cook's premium that you had this offseason, and he might not be as good in New England as he was in Miami from a fantasy perspective. People have been trying to give Wes Welker's numbers to players for five years. Oh, man. If you jarvis Landry, put him in that Edelman roll. I know. It's 200 or six. This is what people have been saying forever. Buy him. Tyreek Hill, number eight. Finish the season at number eight. Consistency rank number nine.

Tyree Kill through 15 games. He was rested in week 17, 75 receptions, 1183 yards, and seven touchdowns. Boy, those numbers, they remind me of Vincent Jackson's numbers back when he was catching passes. A little higher in the receptions, though. I think he's higher on the receptions. Who is? Tyree Kill. No, V. Jacks was a 67 to 75 guy. But he also had 59 rushing yards.

Tyree Kill was interesting. Now, the thing that blows my mind, now, this has confirmed his negative 10 points at home. Because he just, he was a, his monster games all came on the road. You know, week one against New England when he was 133 and 1. Week 3 against the Chargers, 5 for 77 and 1. Against Oakland on the road, 125 and 1. All his monster games, the Jets on the road, 185 and 2.

That just skewed his numbers. For whatever reason, him and Alex Smith, they were roommates, I guess. They would, they'd get together. They'd play some spades. And then they'd, that's what roommates do? Well, maybe. I don't know. In the NFL, yeah. I'm not a spades player. But, and then they'd throw, then you'd throw him touchdowns. So Tyree Kill on the Road was magical this, this year. He was. One of the, one of the things that I really liked about.

having Tyreek this year. We're talking about that this episode, but he was able to provide those weak winning games. One in every five games this year for Tyreek was a put your team on the back, win you the week, over 20 points type of.

performance you know and and even though he was he seemed like he was up and down you know because he he did go back and forth literally it was we made jokes at the beginning of the year yeah it was like good game down game good game down game the down games weren't you know they his down games he had uh you know what two full he had four four bust games which is pretty normal

for a top 24 wide receiver. But he had a lot of those every other week games that were around, you know, the eight, nine point thresholds that you can buy your time, bide your time if you've got a guy that can have those monster weeks when their down weeks are more around the eight points versus the three points. If you are going to go running back early next year, do you want Tyreeks your one? Ooh. With Pat Mahomes maybe being a quarterback. That's risky.

It could work out because Mahomes, at least in college, he has that the gunslinger, a little bit of Brett Far. Great, deep ball. But really, really strong arm. So that it could be a perfect match. Could be. Could be interesting. I would be fine with that. And it's not just because of the deep arm, but because of Tyreek speed just beats guys. I mean, a lot of Alex Smith's, you know, 40 plus yard touchdowns, they were 10, 12, 15 yard throws to Tyreek who, you know, went.