Starts of the Week + Week 11 Breakdown, Thundersnow! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 11/17

Fookland, we have a jam-packed mini-megalodon show here for you today. We are covering so many matchups, including Thunder Snow in today's matchups. We're getting into the starts of the week, the boom-boom kicker, all sorts of good things on today's episode. Make sure you like this video, subscribe, leave a comment about how your week's going, and maybe pray for me in my matchup against Mike. The Fantasy Footballer Studio is brought to you by Samsung Galaxy. Visit Samsung.com to learn more. To the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Again, it's football time. It never stops. Never stops. Oh, Jason's face says it all. This is the week. Thursday. We had been talking Phoenix Suns before hitting the record button.

And I was happy for a moment. Just a single solitary moment. And then you said those dumb words. It's football time. And it reminded me. It reminded me how hard I'm about to tilt my face off this whole weekend. About to tilt? Yeah. Brother, you're mid tilt. I mean, you know, you got in, I was, I was here first. Andy, you walked in and you could tell I was struggling with. I. I mean, I was clapping and all I was saying was I want to watch the accident. I want to watch the, I mean, I am ready to rubberneck this game tonight. And, and I mean, Jason is, he's beginning to build so many potential choices into his decisions for tonight that it's like hitting an impossible parley. Like mathematically, he's getting to the point where he can't make the right combination of choices, specifically.

He's got all these flex choices this week. And it's compounded. Jason, you and Mike are facing off head to head. Foot Clan follow along. I will be watching with you with giggles from the sideline. But they're playing. This game is so important to both of you. This could be our season for the two of us. We both have awesome teams that have had some bad luck along the way. One of us could easily miss the playoffs. One of us is pretty much a lock for the playoffs. based on what happens this weekend. And so Jason is toiling with with flux decisions as all of you are out there. That's why I mean, he's an expert. He obviously knows the right way to go. But we've got Titans Packers tonight. Jason's got himself from Derek Henry. So Mike will be.

Just when you are facing Derek Henry, let me explain what you are doing. You are zooming your eyeballs on the clock. You want that clock to just run out as fast as possible, you know, just some slow drives, AJ Dillon, just get some third down pickups. Just keep them off the field, keep them off the field and try to escape without the week being over already. Yes, yes, 100%. If we can get out of here with. I can't wait. If we could get like. 80 and a touchdown. You're happy. I accept. You just don't want 203. I would prefer that. Look, the snow has fallen in Vermont. We know the Yeti is there. The weather is cold. Things are setting up right. But now the question for me is Christian Watson, who I have had on my bench last week. Good play. Thank you.

You have Alan Lazard. So there's so many nuances to this game of me versus you, Packer versus Packer, Cold Weather. Randall Cobb is back. How does the snow model work when they're up against another cold weather team? It doesn't matter. Historically speaking. Kyle, do we have anything on the snow model about? Well, no, the Yeties still eat Canadians. And they're from. They're from the north, so I think the Yeti is still undefeated. They eat Canadians? Well, look, I'm just saying like the Canadians are from the north. You said, how do they do against cold weather? The world knows that the Canadian flesh is just a little bit tastier for mythological creatures. Yeah, I guess I didn't really connect the dots too well there. Also, it's the...

Are the Packers Canadian? No. No, I mean, the kind of. It was just an anecdote. The situation was he said, how do they do against people from the north? Okay. Cold weather teams like the Green Bay Packers. I just figured the Canadians are as north as they get. But are they more prepared to fight off a Yeti. These are questions we like the people in the Swiss Alps. They know how to handle a Yeti. They're pretty neutral over there on Yeties. Welcome to the fantasy footballers. These are the types of questions we'll answer with detailed statistical analysis on today's show. Yes. The important question. So it will be fun to watch what happens tonight and through the weekend. Jason, get the blood pressure medication. Don't, you know, overindulge on heart attack inducing foods. I have a resting heart rate of 85 right now. Yeah. And I will expect that to go up through the weekend.

So big show today, never not working. Pretty important topic we're talking about there. News and notes, the fantasy forecast, the starts of the week, the boom boom kicker, jam-packed episode. Brooks kept trying to get us to hit record this morning because he knew how jam-packed it was going to be. You got somewhere to be, Brooksie? Nah. We got Jay Gris in the Deucer's Alley today. Oh, wow. This is his first time producing a show. So if anything goes wrong, you know what happened. Yeah, he's big. He's pretty big. Al Borland, just taking another lazy day. And Brooks is on the ones and twos. The Borgogan is here as well. Let's get into Never Not Working. Never Not Working. Presented by Head and Shoulders, Scamp Shield Technology, available at Walmart.

Well, every week we are diving into some important topics slightly, slightly more relevant than Yeti-related analysis. And today we are looking at just target share and analyzing that number. We use it often. We talk about targets being earned. We talk about the fact that... you know, targets are a skill and it's something that we use as fantasy players to identify who the alphas are in these offenses. And I want to get a little bit more nuanced with Target share today. Target share is a good first step in showing you what percentage of team targets. A skilled player is demanding, right? You look at target share numbers this year. DeAndre Hopkins is at 32.9 percent, number one,

C.D. Lam, Devante Adams, Cooper Cup, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Stefan Diggs, A.J. Brown. That's your top list of target share. So that's also a list of the best wide receivers in football. But what I want to bring to mind today is the fact that we need context because that number is blind when you are comparing that number across different passing pies for different teams. Because you have to look at things like how often is a team throwing the football at all? How valuable are those targets? For example, on a home's target, much more valuable than a Russell Wilson target. How often does the team stay on the field? How efficient are they? So let's compare some numbers. Let's look at players that both have the same target share, but different nuance, different context. I'm on Ross St. Brown. Darnell Mooney. Okay, both good players. Also the sun and the moon. Oh, so it's a very important comparison. I like what we did there. 28% target share, both of them.

But very different archetypes in terms of wide receivers. One's a PPR slot receiver. The other is a 438 deep threat. Look, the bears and the lions, they actually average the same fantasy points per pass attempt. So you've got the same target share, same fantasy points per pass attempt. Interesting. But Chicago, they rank last and pass rate. So you completely nerve the chances that Darnell Mooney is going to get, the routes, the opportunities. He has 45th and total routes run. 45th and total routes run, same target share. That's fewer routes run than Ben Skironic. And that's despite what, the Bears don't even have a buy week yet. Right. They haven't even, they have 10 weeks so far. Amman Ra, 10th and fantasy points per route run. It is not apples to apples when you look at the offense surrounding these target share numbers, right? Sure. DJ Moore.

27.8% target share. That is 11th. Delightful. He's barely, like I read those names earlier, he's like a few names down the list from that. 83rd in fantasy points per target. Also a career low in yards after the catch per target. Don't worry. Darnold's on his way. So if he, which I saw that news, they were like some people want him to get an opportunity. I don't know who that is. People who've watched. The Panthers. I mean, DJ Moore is one of the greatest examples of the target shared not telling the whole story, just being chapter one in a book that ends up with a bad ending. Carolina's offense, incredibly inefficient, fewest total plays per game, 25th and past rate over expectation, bad offense.

Bad targets. I mean, I wouldn't, I wouldn't doubt if that yards after catch number is affected by the fact that when he gets a target, he finally can catch, he's not in a position to run anymore like he used to be. And then the biggest example I think we've seen this year, and I'll give credit to Jason on seeing this coming because it would be easy for me to take target share numbers, target numbers, and tell you Deontze Johnson's the same as he's always been. 26% target share, delicious. Ninth in total targets. Spectacular. 12th in red zone targets. Let's go. Deonte must be dominating for your fantasy roster. 96th in fantasy points per target. A Patrick Mahomes pass attempt is worth three times a Steelers pass attempt this year. Okay. That's a shocking number. Good work there, Kyle. Finding that information. Interesting to quantify.

I mean, think about... With the information we have right now, the value of one person's passing attempt. And obviously it's a stealer pass attempt because Trubiskew is part of it. But like right now... Pickett's not better. If Pickett... No, no, I'm just saying like it's not just including one quarterback. But if Pickett goes back to pass and he throws three consecutive passes at Deonti Johnson, that is less valuable than one pass from Patrick Mahomes. So... Look, Deiante is doing nothing wrong by way of that target share. It is an earned stat. You earn those targets. You're apparently open. You're somebody that the quarterback is staring down. But there's a lot that goes into the equation. And my only problem with the target share number really is when you fall back on it to say why that player is still good for the rest of the year, right? Like we can't because what happens is you look dumb over time. Week two.

Look at that target share for Kyle Pitts. Week 5. Look at that target share for Kyle Pitts. Week 8. Look at me not making the playoffs. Right. It's one of those things that is good for knowing that the player is good more in a dynasty outlook and a long-term outlook. We've talked about this for years. Everybody knows it, but we have to remind ourselves. This has been like a tip on things to remember in the offseason is how important quarterback play is. for the wide receiver. Next year, Kyle Pitts is probably going to have a rookie quarterback. And people are going to be like, yes, he's got a new quarterback. It's going to solve it. That's probably not going to be the case. Rookie quarterbacks don't really support a lot of passing yards and passing touchdowns. So we just have to continue to fade wide receivers with bad quarterbacks. Yeah, and you look at that list. Kyler, Dak, Stafford.

Tua, cousins. I mean, you do have foundational quarterbacks there, something to remember. So that is it, unless Mike, you have anything you want to add. I do not. Get up to 100% standard of protection. That is never not working with head and shoulder scalp shield technology available at walmart.com. Use it every time you shampoo and see the difference. News and notes from around the league. Presented by USAA Insurance. Speaking of quarterbacks. Andy Dalton is going to remain the starter in week 11 for the Norland Saints. Dennis Allen came out and said James Winston's not going to be 100% healthy this season, but is healthy enough to serve as the backup. And practice in full every day. I mean, I get it. That is a situation that could be true where it's probably not best for him to go out and take a bunch of hits. But we now know that for the rest of the season, it appears like it's Andy Dalton. Andy Dalton is.

played poor enough in stretches to be benched and has not been benched yet? I still think it could happen. Oh, I mean, Dalton can really, he can do a lot to bench himself here, but. Bench yourself. But, yeah, we have clarity that it's Dalton, which means the play is not going to be phenomenal. Yeah, there are definitely injuries where. your performance can be affected. You may be able to get out there, but maybe you're less accurate or something of that nature. Matthew Stafford, full participant. He's on track to play in week 11. Okay, with his maybe concussion? That's correct. Okay. Yeah. No one will ever know. It's between him and the Lord. Does Stafford know? He has no idea. Like can the doctor tell him? It's one of the signs of concussion. You do not know whether you have one.

Okay, okay. Taylor Heineke will start in week 11. Ron Rivera confirming this was the first week that Carson Wentz was eligible to return. You know, I'd be telling him to just heal up, buddy. Justin Jefferson Limited, Devante Adams Limited. I don't think those are situations that we need to worry about until we get practice reports today, but just be aware. No one likes to see their Justin Jefferson show up on the... Enter a report. No one does. That is right. I'm pretty disappointed. I held my breath for that. Mark Andrews returned to a limited practice. You might have seen a report that he was not at practice. That was circulating. That was for the kind of open media portion, but he did participate in the limited fashion. Interesting. He has been in some. He didn't want to show the media. It's like Josh Allen last week.

Yeah, milking the suspense. We never talked about that. Oh, my goodness gracious. But I prefer not to. I can't get back into that. I think there's some of that going on with Arizona right now. Kyler Murray, Colt McCoy, both day to day. There's reports that Kyler can miss another week. If you listen to Cliff Kingsbury talk about it, he says he hopes one of these guys are out there. I thought both reports sounded optimistic when I listened to him. I thought there's a chance that both of these guys could be ready and you're just trying to get that. you know, advantage over San Francisco on Monday night football. The thing for Cliff, you know the line of Princess Bride when he's like, I don't think that word means what you think it means. I think that's true for the phrase day to day. I don't think Cliff understands what day to day actually means. Yeah. I think he thinks it means he's injured, but he's going to play soon someday. Maybe he means days to days.

Maybe. Maybe that's what he's pluralizing it. Are we, is he just dropping the S? I don't know. We're not hearing it. Now, if he said if someone was week to week, does that mean season? Oh, that means that we'll see them in three years. Yeah. Okay. Hey, guess what? Oh, baby. There is a chance. There's chance Hollywood Brown is back. He's been day to day on the IR for four weeks. Monday night. There is a chance. He's been designated to return from the foot fracture. That is great news. The original timeline was six weeks. This will have been four missed games. So this is a little bit earlier, which... Well, the original timeline was season ending. Well, that was the original fear. The original timeline once they actually got the report on the fracture was going to be six weeks. So this is earlier, which is both good news in the sense that it looks like his healing and his recovery is gone excellent, but also leads me to believe that I'm not going to, in any way, shape, or form rely on a Monday night player.

coming off of this injury that might not play. You give them this week. We have no idea of who you are a quarterback either. But it's a good sign for this offense. And if you're looking at Cardinals' offensive pieces down the line, Kyler should be back. He'll have these weapons. And if you're in a league that doesn't have an IR slot, Hollywood, I'm sure, was dropped in plenty of those leagues over the last little while. Be aware that he's been activated and pick him up. And then the Chiefs Wednesday practice, Juju didn't practice, McColl didn't practice, MBS didn't practice. So that's a Sunday night football game. Juju, McColl, NVS, they shouldn't really be factored into your plans this weekend because of that start time. Yeah, MVS has an illness, so I don't necessarily think he's going to miss. Juju's concussion was one of those that looked serious on the field. There's no way he plays. Exactly. So he is like ruled out to me. And McColl already missed the last game.

So if he's missing practice, I'm going to go ahead and mentally rule him out for now as well. Chargers, Sunday night game as well, obviously the other side of this ball game. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams both returned to individual drills. The wide receivers in this game, there are questions on both sides of the ball. Do you think there's any chance Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are out there on the field? Jason. I think it's very, very low odds that both of them are out. We were talking this morning. Both of them are out or out there. They're very different things. That's fair. Thank you for pointing that out. You know, we were before the show just giving our own little takes. Keenan Allen feels 50-50 to play. Mike Williams feels 80-20 to not play. Agreed. Now is today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. I will say this. Cadarious Tony Josh Palmer.

They're very much affected by the availability of those other players, even if you don't have confidence in those players themselves. As there is a superstar, as Jason would say on Kansas City. That's right. Justin Watson, baby. So right now, Mike, with what you know, Cadarius, Tony or Josh Palmer, who do you have more interest in this week? Tony. Really? Yeah. Okay. What will also be interesting is. Tony. Hey, Tony. The Patrick, like, let's say all three of these guys miss, okay? The, the situation of Patrick Mahomes being without his weapons and Justin Herbert, like, we've had the entire season, Justin Herbert, no weapons, okay? Herbert's fine, but he doesn't have, once he gets his weapons, he'll be perfectly fine, but well, Patrick Mahomes say that does not matter to me. Well, he's got, he's got his main weapon. Yeah, he's got Kelsey. So I think he'll be. Well, one.

But just say, he doesn't count as a weapon. He's part of the offense. No, I know. He helps. He had a big catch last week. Open things up for other players. Yeah, I mean, this is one of the benefits of adding Cadarious Tony to the offense is you are making up for the potential absence of these different weapons. Yeah, and I too would also take Cadarious Tony over Palmer. Both have great opportunities, but Cadarious Tony looks like the much more. explosive talented player and we just talked about more touchdowns for patrick mahomes the value of mahomes targets yep into the forecast we go fantasy forecast well it's very important to me that we begin with a matchup that i'm going to call the thunder snow matchup cleveland three and six what is going on going to buffalo who are who are sitting at six and three

The drafting sportsbook line, Buffalo minus seven and a half. The overrunner is now 42. It opened at 46.5. Thunder snow is a, it's a word I've never heard until now. I need this explained to me. Does anyone know? It's a snowstorm with thunder. It is. It's like, you know how you can get like a nice rainy day that's not a thunderstorm? It's just a rainy day. That's what like normal snows like. But if there's like thunder and lightning and snow all at once, it's thunder snow. It's thunder snow. Okay, but like. That sounds like one of those monster truck rallies. Sunday, Sunday, Sunday. But I feel like if you add thunder to a snowstorm. You get some lightning in there too, Mike. Okay. Well, you can, we have thunderstorms here in Arizona without like lightning is not an issue.

Uh, no, it's happening up there in the clown. Right. Yeah. But this is the first time. Right. This is this. And to be clear, these are icicle lightning bolts. Okay. Okay. Now we're talking about dangerous stuff in Buffalo. If only there was something that humanity could do. Not possible. That would like protect us from the elements of outside. Like if there was a. Like a lid? Like a lid for the bull. Something over my head, you know, protect me from the thunderstorm, the thunder snowstorm, whatever it is. Mike, they have their facilities right now. If they were ever to build a new one, that's something they could address it. Surely they would say we will never have to deal with something uncomfortable like this again. Well, they're not going to put a billion dollars into a new open air stadium. Yeah, why would you do that?

I mean, that would be freaking ridiculous. It's the definition of insanity. Just repeating the same thing over, expecting different results. Well, but the thing is, is people like outdoor games. Yeah. If only there was a retractable roof system that people could create to where they could play good weather games outdoors and protect yourself from, I don't know, games that are being rumored to possibly move. Let me read you the forecast. Three to six feet of snow by Sunday, including possible thunder snow, shaping out to be potentially one of the most extreme snowstorms in the history of the United States of America. Do people in Buffalo, like, just live outside? Like, do they not have? Oh, like lids on their houses? Yeah. Yeah. Do they just, they live in open air homes? There's just some walls. And they're like, yeah, this is how we've always done it. We're a football town. I'm not putting a roof on my own.

There's somebody at this meeting. Just smashing wings and getting snowed on. And tables and tables are also being destroyed. Are we done with Buffalo? I will never. I will never cease with this argument. I absolutely hate the open air stadium in Snowville country and windy areas. But we can conclude that thought and get back to the actual game. And from a fantasy perspective with regards to the weather, I was reading a recent article from Kevin Roth. He is a meteorologist who focuses on fantasy, does work with roto grinders. And he says that a lot of those. Three to six feet things are worst case, probably not going to happen. One to two feet is more probable. But regardless, for this game, the snow is anticipated to come all before the game. As of this recording, there is not even expected to be snowfall during the game other than little flurries. They know how to clean it up. So I do think that the...

massive gigantic fears of an eight to nothing snowball game are probably not going to happen. Is there the possibility of them moving this game simply because of the idea of getting fans to the game, the safety around that? If this is a extreme weather event, it might be less about can we play through it and, you know, they can clear the field off and more about. You know, can anybody show up safely to this football game? That is certainly a possibility. I believe it was 2014 where they had to move Buffalo for a similar situation. Snow games traditionally produce 45 more combined rushing yards and one full rushing touchdown over non-Snow games. There is a good article on the site titled Weather, Weather really matters by Matt DeSorbo. Oh, Matthew. So clever. Well done. I'm very proud of getting through that.

title. But that makes you, you've got some decisions here surrounding, I think peripheral options, right, in a snow game. You're not going to sit Stefan Diggs under any circumstance. And Josh Allen, he is a running back. He is one of those players more immune to this circumstance at the quarterback position. Yeah, the rushing touchdowns aren't just running back touchdowns. They're rushing touchdown. Josh Allen could easily convert passing touchdowns into rushing touchdowns in this game. I want to point out that Josh Allen, rushing-wise recently. I mean, 32, 49, 86, 84, like significantly more than like Jalen Hertz has put up lately. People have talked about him struggling with the passing game right now. He is making up for it fantasy-wise with the running game. Let's talk about some other options, though. Devin Singletary, Gabe Davis, Dawson, Knox, where are you with those secondary options in the Buffalo offense that, you know, they're facing a Brown's defense that is very vulnerable?

Yeah, they are very vulnerable. I'm a little bit more hesitant with Gabriel Davis due to the weather. There is supposed to be about 15 mile an hour winds. That affects more of the deep passing. That's kind of the heyday for Gabriel Davis. Not that he can't catch a touchdown in this and that you need to bench him, but he would be more my concern in this game. The real question for me is Devin Singletary. He has had a lot of really worthless games this season. But... When he's involved in, you know, last week we saw two touchdowns, 13 carries, played 72% of the snaps. This is a snowy game, so it could work out well for the running game in a good matchup against Cleveland. He is my biggest question. He's one of the four players on my personal roster against Mike this week that I'm trying to decide between him, Christian Watson, Josh Palmer, kind of that tier. So, Andy, let me ask you.