Fantasy Valentines + 2018 RB Rookie Review

Philip Lindsay was second. He did it six times. Chubb and Sony Michelle both did it five times. This was not as good. And we knew this from years prior that the 2017 running back class was very special. Hunt, Christian McCaffrey, Fournette, Camara, Mixon, Cohen, Dalvin Cook. That was a special class. I think this one actually surprised me. I didn't think they would be as good as they were.

But you had disappointments like Royce Freeman. You had disappointments like, you know, took trouble out to get going. Sonny, Michelle. You know, surprises. Philip Lindsay, Gus Edwards. So those things happened. But carry on got banged up. And those are the guys we're talking about right now. So let's talk about Rashad Penny because how do you, you know, you can look at the numbers. Rashad Penny, 419 yards rushing on only 85 carries, only 12 targets on the season. Obviously didn't live up to expectations.

No. However, 4.9 of carry when he was in the game. And how do you feel about him? Because he was a first round pick. And we came in here last year and we said, well, the draft capital invested on Rashad Penny and Sonny Michelle. It means X, Y, and Z. Well, what do we feel? How do we feel about Rashad Penny moving forward? Because I don't know how to feel. Yeah, it felt bad. It felt real bad having a first round pick.

It's hard to know it did he really lose his job because he came into training camp, got banged up. He had the, it was the finger problem, like a broken finger. And then Chris Carson, who was what, like a fifth to last pick in the NFL draft two years ago. He managed to hold onto the job. He held Rashad Penny off. So it certainly felt bad. But on the field, he was okay. So if the opportunity comes, I believe Rashad Penny will.

be great. I just don't know that the opportunity will come, the opportunity you were expecting for a first round running back. What I'm really looking for in 2019 is what happens with Mike Davis because Chris Carson is the start. I think Mike Davis is gone. He's an unrestricted free agent. Yeah, he's gone then. He, I mean, exactly. He might not be there. But if he leaves, I think Rashad Penny is going to be a value in the draft because.

He was talented when he got the ball. He just didn't get that many opportunities. He didn't even get 100 carries. I was going to get 200 carries next year. No, I don't think he'll get 200 cares. I mean, if you look at what Mike Davis abandoned, you'd have to give them all to Rashon Penny. But Penny was banged up. He played 14 games. He didn't have great opportunity early. What was interesting for Davis was they turned him into their past catching back because you had the smooches.

J.D. McKissick was hurt the entire year. And I can't even remember the other guy. CJ Procise. CJ Proce. No, they have an endless supply of third down injured running backs. But Mike Davis turned into that guy. You have a game with seven receptions, a game with eight receptions. When they needed to go to a pass catching running back, they went to Mike Davis. And of the two, Chris Carson and Rashad Penny.

Penny's skill set at catching the ball is vastly superior. Yes, and I think Rashad Penny can be that pass catching back. Well, they trusted Mike Davis in pass protection. That was the thing. Right. And you saw some of the rookie issues of he was not involved early. The beginning of the year, his pace was the first half of the year. He was on pace for about 80 carries where he finished the second half of the year. He would have been on pace for 115. That's not fantasy gold, but clearly it shows that he was getting more involved in the offense, getting a little bit more trust.

you know, in his camp when it comes to pass protection, things like that. So if Mike Davis is gone, I do think Rashad Penny will be a value next year. You get Penny 150 carries and 30, a little bit over 30 receptions. Of course, that's not a running back one, but that's a guy that was going to be valuable for your team. I don't really see how he doesn't get 200 carries next year. I really don't. Yeah? I mean, this is a team that ran the football more than anybody in the NFL except for Baltimore.

And Baltimore had the built-in plays drawn up for the quarterback. So they rushed the ball percentage-wise more than anybody, 52% of the time. 534 carries last year. 534. That's a lot. So with what they, you know, maybe it sounds a little bit like a broken record, but with the draft capital and the fact he earned some reps towards the end of the season, I feel pretty good about him being a potential steal. You cannot write him off.

Like, you know, you had the running backs that were supremely disappointed. Ronald Jones, supremely disappointed. Rashad Penny, supremely disappointed. But at least, at least that, you know, Penny looked good when he got the ball. Do you want to go out and trade for Penny in a dynasty league? Yeah, yeah. If I can get him for pennies. Oh, gosh. Yeah, nailed it. It's fair. All right, let's move on. I believe you've met my fitness concedingliere.

Michelle. All right, Sony. Michelle. Sonny Michelle. Sonny Michelle. Look, I saw him on a late night show. Did you guys see that interview? No. What show? He was on with Fallon, was it? Was this after the Super Bowl? Yeah, it was after the Super Bowl, but he was talking about the party after the Super Bowl and how crazy it was. But how, like, Tom Brady and his family had this, like,

completely separate section from everybody else. Yeah, with veggie trays. And Sonny and Michelle just felt like a fan just like everybody else at the party of Tom Brady, just taking pictures of Tom Brady. Super Bowl champion Sonny Michelle. Look, first round pick. Talked about him in the truth episode as well, so we'll be brief. But most carries for any New England rookie running back in the last 20 years. Pretty good stat. Average the third most yards per carry ever of New England rookie running backs.

and was still difficult to decide how, when, and why to play him on your fantasy roster because of all of the schematic and roster moves that New England makes. Yeah, I mean, you've got pros and cons here, right? The way he finished the year, and I'm speaking in the playoffs, when the Patriots needed him, they were to lie it on him. He averaged over 100 yards and two touchdowns in the playoffs. That's great. That's a guy that you can rely on.

but I'm worried it pushes his average draft price so high that you're going to grab a guy that can still be just completely schemed out next year because of Bill Belichick. He's teamed out. I don't know about out. I mean, if you go into one of these weird games where all of a sudden you go. They had it happen plenty of times at the end of the season. If I had to have a backup Valentine, you know, like I hand that first one out, she rejects it. I got to find my backup. Sonny Michelle would have been it.

And part of it is what you said about the playoffs and the way he performed and what they want him to be able to do and the fact that, you know, he took some pretty big steps as a rookie despite the injuries. Mike, weigh in on Sony before we move on to Nick. I'm with Jason. Well, I'm not with Jason that's Sony. Not on the fedora. No, not with the fedora, but I love Sony Michelle. And I truly believe he has the past catching skill set.

But Bill Belichick did not want to use him that way. And it's looking at the end of the year, that's where things are weird because that's when Rex Burkhead was back. That's when everyone was there. And week 12, fantastic. Over 20 fantasy points, a monster game and championship weekend as well. But in between those, very disappointing for a player who's likely to, I agree with Jason that he will get the playoff bump. Sony over or under.

the middle of actually the top of the third round over or under uh i think middle of the third so you'll take the under yeah as far as where i think he'll go or where i would draft no no where you think he will go adp i think he'll be at the top of the third so if i had to pick an over under i would i would go over i don't i would not draft him there at all i would take him there i don't think there's going to be the overreaction you think there is there the impact last year

made by the running backs on that team, it was James White owners. The James White owners remember what they got from him. He won leagues for most people. He's the most valuable draft pick and fantasy. When we went through the truth of the running back episode and we saw the value of targets, the value of the receiving skills, yes, you believe he has the receiving ability. They don't, but they don't use them like that. It doesn't matter. I don't think he has it and they, I mean, he had 11 targets, right? Like on the year, that's worthless.

Yeah, I agree with that. And yet Ligarra Blunt has had a monster fantasy season in New England, not catching the football at all. So they're a unique team to me. Like I wouldn't make that argument for Sonny Michelle everywhere. But to me, they're unique because he can score three touchdowns because that's how they, you know. Yeah. So it'll be interesting. Nick Chubb, I already talked about him. He was the third pick of the second round by the Browns. He was the ninth most consistent running back in football.

And he only had 16 rushes in weeks 1 through 6 and still pulled off a monster year. Yeah. For the consistency rank, we did not include those. Just a reminder. Yeah, the first six weeks. 18.5 fantasy points for game from weeks 9 through 16, which puts him at RB6 in that span. You guys talk about Nick Chubb if you want to. Otherwise, we can move on. I mean, we've made the case for him. He's going to be a stud. But where do you think he will go?

Because I think he'll be like a top of the second round. He's going to be the consolation running back for the people. Do you like him in the top of the second round? I don't know if I do. I don't know if I like him in the top of the second round. I think, but I would take him over Sony. And I think I would take him over Sony. So middle of the second, I think that that's good value on Nick Chup. But it's kind of moot to kind of theorize where he's going.

When you don't have the cream hunt suspension that has come down. Right. Because that'll define everything. Ronald Jones, the sixth pick of the second round, hot stats. Ready? He registered more tackles. Yes, that would be tackles. Wait, he's a running back? Yeah, yeah. But he tackles one time. More tackles in the last four games than total yards. This was... That's rough. That's mean. You know how...

You're writing a story, right? And, you know, you mess up so many times and the paper's got all that eraser mark on it. And then you just crumple the page up and just throw it and then start over. That's what we're going to try to do or what he's going to try to do with his rookie season. It's going to be tough for Ronald Jones. Bruce Ariens, I'm not sure that there was a worse hire for the status of Ronald Jones.

because things that Bruce Ariens wants in his running back. Number one, it's pass protection. And then he also wants his running back to be able to catch the ball. And Ronald Jones struggles mightily with both of those things, which is why he couldn't get it. He could not beat out Peyton Barber last year. So with Arians coming in, look, maybe there could be growth for Ronald Jones. So I'm not going to.

Or maybe he's just a kick and punt returner. I mean, that's the world. Those are the range of outcomes, right? Right. He could be useless. Yes, 100% useless. He's one of those guys where I'll be surprised if late in next year's draft, I take a flyer on him. I would, I would bet I don't draft him and, you know, with my last positional pick next year, unless something comes around where Ariens says he is the guy, but you got to keep in mind.

He wasn't even part of the team that drafted him. Why is he going to come in and be like, okay, now the guy that got 23 carries last year didn't do much with it. He's the guy. Here's the counterpoint. If you want to make a point for Ronald Jones, I don't think any of us are under the illusion that Peyton Barber is special. Now, he may be reliable, but I don't think any of us think he's special. I think Ronald Jones has some qualities that could earn him.

a role in the offense based on training camp. I mean, he was a high second round pick. There is more institutional investment in him than there is at the head coach position, but it still matters. So if he can flash, we're talking about him moving from a nothing, a very nice defender with the one tackle. Right. But from nothing into something. Now, do I want to draft him? No. I don't want to draft him? No. The counterpoint to the special versus reliable. David Johnson.

was a special running back. It took multiple injuries in front of David Johnson, his rookie season, to get him on the field because he kept making mistakes. And Arians wasn't willing to put up with the mistakes to get those potential special plays. So if Ronald Jones can't improve in those two areas, it's going to be very difficult for him to get playing time. Yeah, he's going to have to, I mean, he's got an opportunity because Peyton Barber is a restricted free agent. We'll see if Tampa Bay.

brings Barbara back. I'm guessing that they're going to grab a running back in the draft. Yeah, they could grab one in the draft. They could also make a splash. They might make a play on Lev. Who knows? They could. Or even a guy like Isaiah Crowell, who was announced likely to be released from the jet. All right, let's move on to a slightly rosier story. Carry on Johnson, the 11th pick of the second round by the Detroit Lions. Trade it up to get him.