Fantasy Football 2018 - The TRUTH About Fantasy QBs in 2017

It's a franchise quarterback, and you've got one with Matthew Sanford. There's no doubt about that. Now, he busted 38% of the time. He was good 44% of the time. I think we're going to hear a lot about, you know, smooth routes this offseason. Oh. Because Kenny Galadies are going to be a breakout candidate. Kenny G on the pipes. Oh, so smooth. You think Matthew Stafford's into jazz?

You know what was missing for Matthew Stafford this year? We're getting to the point. We're getting to the point of these quarterbacks when I look at them all compared to each other as we talk about the 7th, 8th, and 9th ranked quarterbacks on the season, which were Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers, and Drew Breeze. Here's where you see these guys where, look, they finished as quarterback ones, even top 10, but they were lacking the big blow-up performances. Matthew Stafford.

has had that in the past. And this year he only had two games. Only 13% of his games were those weak winning type of performances that really made him a valuable fantasy asset. So that means to me, when you lack the boom games, that's what's going to help you fall in the next year's draft. And so the question we have to ask is, is Stafford capable of the boom games?

at a higher rate than he did this year, I believe he is. So Stafford could be a value next year because, you know, 38% bust. That's about average of the top 12. It's what you're going to get from most of these guys. And I think his place to grow is the ability to have, you know, more deep bombs, especially as Kenny Gallaudet grows up a little and maybe gets healthy. Yeah, I just doesn't get hurt. Did you guys bring this up the seventh season in a row? We did not. 4,200 plus passing yards?

That's like Drew Bree's light from Drew Bree's in his prime. I mean, it's pretty much what you get there. I love Matthew Stafford because he's going to be a value in the draft. I already know that. I just, I think that the time of Matthew Stafford, early on his career, when it was the 5,000 yards, the huge touchdown amounts, I think that's gone. I think that Matthew Stafford has, maybe it was just the coaching staff, but they had turned him into a game manager. I don't know if people realize exactly.

what had happened to Stafford. He can have a game here and there where he throws three or four touchdowns, but it's just, it's not, it's not consistent like that anymore. His interceptions have come way down. Well, that's accuracy percentage. 60, 67, 65, 65. He's a much better NFL quarterback now. He's making much better decisions instead of just.

turning the hat around and throwing it sideways and saying, oh, I'll make that throw. You know, Calvin Johnson lets you be a little more frivolous with the ball. He certainly does. But I still like him. I still think you get something safe with him. And so if you are going to wait until the eighth round to draft a quarterback, ninth round, 10th round, and he's sitting there on the board and he can give you consistent weeks, you really have a good team. Yeah. And while, yes, you might not get the, you know, the outlier 41 touchdown season. But there's only a handful of quarterbacks that you can.

Pretty much say, look, this guy has a really above, you know, a very realistic chance of throwing over 30 touchdowns. And, you know, he had 29 this year. He's had 29 before, 32 before. I think that's in the realm of possibility. He's only been over 30 twice. Sure. Yes. He's been over 32 times. Once was 41. Yes. And then he's been at 29 two times. So he could, if you say next year, he has 33 touchdowns, that's very realistic. It's plausible, yes.

All right, let's talk about Philip Rivers, the eighth ranked fantasy quarterback, the sixth ranked inconsistency. He only busted a quarter of the time. That's pretty much the lowest rate you can get at the quarterback position, and he was good 56% of the time. Sorry, before we jump fully into Philip Rivers, just wanted to bring up Matt Stafford was five points better at home. So those are definitely worth noting. Yes.

There's no way Philip Rivers doesn't wear his hat forward like me. Oh, I'm going to put that on. Philip Rivers strikes me as a visor. With that many kids, you've got to set the example. That's a hat forward. Yeah. It's a visor. It's cargo shorts. Do I look like I'm getting mad at you guys because you made a bad play? Oh, my gosh. I will, you know, let me. Brooks, give me the camera. Oh, I'm backing up. Look, Philip.

I like you as a fantasy football player. I think I like you as a guy. I mean, everything I've heard about you in the locker room and you as a teammate and as a citizen in your town, I like Philip Rivers, okay? Okay. Can we get that out of the way? Bodies of water, people named after them. Oh, yeah, big time. Philip, stop blaming.

Every incomplete on everyone else with the worst face I've ever seen in my life. He grimaces every, every play. It doesn't matter. Do you not realize what that is, though? 20 yards. He's like, oh, your fall. No, no, no, no. He eats a tide pod after every throw. Dude, all right. That's what it is. I need the camera again. Brooks, Philip. Stop eating tidepods, dude. They're not candy. They're not. That's not grape jelly and then cherry.

That's not a gustave. Thank you. Hold on, hold on. Are you sure? Have you tried it? It does look pretty good. Do you think of some vanilla in there? They smell good. So Philip Rivers, getting to fantasy football. 1,500 yards, 4,500 yards, 28 touchdown. He's always going to air it out. Obviously, I think one of the biggest differences this year was he had Keenan Allen. He had a wide receiver won.

And why he was consistent, he's always going to throw for the yards. He's good at throwing touchdowns. It's been the interceptions. Last year, or two years ago now, he threw 21 interceptions led the league. Two years prior to that through 18 and led the league interceptions. But this previous season, only 11 interceptions. That was the real difference. So do you think?

next year he's going to be the Phillip Rivers we saw this past year or is he going to be the every other year high intercept he's going to be last he's going to be this past year as Philip Rivers because this team is built they're building a very strong defense rivers had what how many games in a row with a hundred plus passing pass a rating nine nine games in a row he he needs to manage his team and he got back his best weapon

his most consistent weapon. He tried to do too much the year before because he was throwing at Dantrell-Inman and random wide receivers. This past year was impressive. 28 touchdowns, 10 interceptions. I would say, I mean, the 21 interceptions last year was an outlier. That's not his career average. He's more in that 11 to 15 range. And so, yeah, 10, it's a little bit better than that. He still fumbled the ball five times. But he doesn't have to do as much.

his pass is 62% of the time was on the field, and he's 36. I mean, we forget, we talk about Tom Brady, but we forget, like, Drew Brees is 39. Drew Brees is right at that same. Philip Rivers still has a couple years here. He's more in that Big Ben category. He's 36. The question for me, for Philip Rivers, is will they employ the same strategy with Keenan Allen? Because when Keenan Allen,

took flight and became Superman for fantasy football. You're talking around week 10. From week 10 to the end of the season, Philip Rivers had three interceptions. And that was in one game against Kansas City. That was the complete and total meltdown. And in that time, Philip Rivers, in those seven games, Phil Rivers would have been on pace for over 5,000 yards. It was great. Austin Eckler helped. So that's...

Everything for me on Phillip Rivers is what is the offensive scheme with Keenan Allen. All right. I want to get through as many of these names as we can. So give me some brief analysis on kind of going into next year. Number nine, Drew Breeze, consistency rank of 13. This year was absolutely different than every year he's ever played since about 2007. This is the first time he hasn't had 30 touchdowns since 2007. He was at 23. He was terrible. He dropped down.

from 37 to 23. Even if you got him as a quote value in the draft, he wasn't an actual value. He never had a great game. Never had a top three week. I do not understand at all how he finished as the number nine quarterback. I literally had to go back through and look at our data source to like add him up because when you bust 44% of the time, that's what we were complaining about with Kirk Cousins. That's what we were complaining about with Cam Newton. And you had exactly zero big games.

How did you finish as a top 10 quarterback? He didn't help you at all this year. There was never a game he won. There were plenty of games he lost for you. Drew Breeze is, I mean, excellent. Didn't have Brandon Cook. Fantastic quarterback. But with their running game going with him at the age he's at, they have shifted to being a good defense, a good running game, and a perfect quarterback to do everything that is needed and nothing more for fantasy.

I don't want to touch Drew Breeze ever again. Ooh, that's where I'm at. No, that's fair. It's the defensive switch. That was huge. Super Camario. Also huge, majorly detrimental to the fantasy production of Drew Breeze. This was the first year. Better defense? Much better defense. This was the first year since 2008 that he has thrown fewer than 32 touchdowns. Yeah. Yeah. And it went down to 23. I think I said that. Did you? Yeah. Oh. Yeah.

I apologize. It was so good at needed to be set twice. I was adding the things up over here and wasn't listening. That's okay. Big Ben, number 10, consistency rank of number eight. By the way, the template for Drew Brees next year, I think it's going to be the same. This team was one Hail Mary away from being in the title game. They'll follow the same pattern. Big Ben, he's coming back. He says he wants to play three more years. He threw the...

28 touchdowns. He won't have Todd Haley anymore. He busted 33% of the time. He was good 47% of the time, and he was great, 20% of the time. He did not have the home road split this year that we've seen in years past from a fantasy perspective. He was actually down 0.6 points at home this year. He did average 283 passing yards per game, second best of fantasy quarterbacks. Big Ben always...

is a relevant fantasy player as long as he has Antonio Brown. Now you've got Juju Smith-Schuster and Lev Bell out of the backfield for 80-plus receptions. Big Ben, he belongs here. He belongs right, 8 to 10 range. He does. He got off to a really bad start the season. And it's the tale of two seasons. First half of the year, they have that week 9 buy. So perfect before the buy after the buy. First half the year, he averaged 12 points a game. Everyone was disappointed that drafted him.

Second half of the year, 22 points a game on average, extremely consistent. And you were very happy you had Big Ben. I think coming back next year, he should be fine. I mean, they got their act together. And like Andy said, he's got the weapons. So I will, it's hard to draft Big Ben because he's got the combo of the name. He always gets a little bit overvalued, and I want him to slip. But I'd be fine with Big Ben next year. All right. What's the truth about Dak Prescott, number 11?

This season, consistency rank of 18, just 22 touchdowns. This came from the 25 stats article. With 304.66 fantasy points in six point per TD leagues. Dak Prescott barely finished as a QB1 for the season. Lowest top 12 total since Mark Sanchez finished as the QB10 in 2011. He busted half the time. 50% of his games were not.

Okay, they were bust. And you knew win a little bit because he was negative six points against top defenses. Yeah, he was bad. You sound like a man defeated. Yeah, I mean, he came out. He was so hot. For half of the year, he was great for fantasy purposes. So what is he, though, moving forward? I have no idea. This is the truth. This is where you find out the truth. And the truth is, we don't know. I don't know. The Ezekio Elliott variable, him being gone for six games. Tyron Smith.

Missing games. Des Ryan not being himself. Accuracy issues. You know, obviously 13 interceptions is a big part of it. Yeah. I think the accuracy, the decisions he was making later on the season, that's where it was weird. It just completely fell off the cliff. Now here's the one thing I would say. And, you know, Ezekiel Elliott does make a huge difference on that team and on deck. He had 10 games with him and he had six games without him.

On average, his 10 games with Zeke. He averaged 22.8 fantasy points a game, which is fantastic. Without him, 15 points a game, which would be almost averaging a bust. Brooks, how do you feel? You're the resident Dallas truther. Give us the truth about Dak Prescott. Tell us his exact. Stat line for next year. Yeah, that'd be great. Instead, can I just say, I still believe in Dak. Okay. All right. Is that the sentiment among Dallas fans?