Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Wide Receiver Studs, Duds, Values, News and Mailbag

He's also going to be in a contract year. In addition to everything else, he's coming up on a contract year where he's going to play through whatever injuries. He's going to stretch out for that extra touchdown, get the big contract. Last year, he had 1,600 yards, which was a career high for him, but is easily replicatable, and over 100 touchdowns. Wait. Catches? 100 touchdowns? Yeah, he got into the end of 100. He's going to come down from 100 touchdowns.

I was about to say touchdowns is the difference between last year and a really big year. Yes. Well, that's where my brain was going is that... Regression. A slight regression from his hundred. Well, that's the big thing, is that he only had six touchdowns last year. He heard of here for projecting 100 touchdowns. Jason Moore. No, no, no, under. I'm taking in, you know, 90s. He played 15 games last year. Yeah. Yeah, so he lost a game last year and still put up 1,600 yards, over 100 receptions, and had six...

touchdowns. There was a huge drought in the year, Andy, I know you were lamenting this through the year, where he just didn't catch any touchdowns, and it was almost a freak occurrence. Also, keep in mind that this is a player who has put up double-digit touchdowns before. His sophomore year in the league, he put up 10. Kyle Shanahan coming in, you know, just think about what he did, you know, when he had Andre Johnson. Kyle Shanahan's been comparing Julio Jones.

to Andre Johnson back in the day. And I think that they're going to get the running game going a little bit better, which from a touchdown perspective will actually help Julio get into the end zone this year. So tell me why. Why are they getting there? Is it just an offensive line improvement to fix both equations? Because that was the problem that I saw on tape last year. When I watched the Atlanta Falcons, I saw Matt Ryan not being able to settle into his drop, settle into the pocket. And then, you know, Julio's a downfield guy.

plus per catch guy, I believe. Yes, 15.3. So if he can't get into his breaks because Manning is in that situation, that's what I saw was the biggest struggle last year myself. So if you have him as your stud, is that mean that you, are you taking him over, I mean, everyone? It's Calvin? No, I'm not taking him necessarily over everyone. I've got him projected right now to finish number two. I think that's where I've got him finishing up. So who's your number one, just so we know?

My number one right now is... Is it Brown? No, it's Demarius Thomas. Okay. As far as projected to finish. I wouldn't necessarily draft him number one either. The reason that... But Julio's going behind Calvin, Demarius, Odell Beckham, Des Bryant, and Antonio Brown right now. And that's why he's your stud. Yes, that is... You just named the reason he is my fantasy stud muffin. I would love... Can I get the mic now? So here's something I found interesting about Julio Jones. Julio Jones was in top five yards. He had the third most yards in the league.

Let me read you the other guys in their snap count and see if you can see a discrepancy. Brown, 184 snaps. Demarius Thomas, 153. Jordy Nelson, 980. Sanders, 132. Julio Jones, 887 snaps. You take the other top four, they average 1,037 snaps. That's 150 snaps less. Wow. And he was the third most yardies in the league. He's still very elusive. He tied for fifth.

in mistackles. He had 16 to speak to Kyle Shanahan. Here's what Kyle Shanahan is done with his receive, fantasy-wise with his receivers. Andre Johnson, 2008. Second, 2009. Andre Johnson, number one, the best of Andre Johnson's career, which kind of set the stage for him being the fantasy, a fantasy god. Moves to Washington. 2010. Santana Moss. This is Santana Moss. 19th.

2011. Garsohn 22nd. Jabar Gaffney, 25th. So not totally a wide receiver 2, but essentially two wide receiver 2 is right there. 2012, the game changed a bit for Washington. It got spread around too much for them to really have a top wide receiver, and Alfred Morris was taking everything. But then 2013, Garsohn was 13th. He led the league in receptions with 113. So Kyle Shanahan with Julio Jones.

I believe is primed for a lowest of a top three season. That's a good take. Yeah. Those snap counts, that's almost, I mean, that's probably two plus games. Give him two more games on his stats last year. Give him another touchdown. Give him another 10 catches. Give him another couple hundred yards. And he's already finishing in the top two, top three. Yeah, I found when I was doing the research on the snaps, I thought that was actually like a shocking piece of information to be that much lower than everybody else. Oh, I remember him missing.

Missing a little game for me in my fantasy playoffs. That was a delight. So, Mike, let's go to the... I want to go over to you and your stud because your guy is actually in the same boat as Julio, where they're currently going six and seven back to back in ADP right now. No respect. Your guy is... Jordy Nelson. White chocolate. What?

I thought that nickname was claimed. Isn't that? It probably is. Williams from basketball? Yeah. So, Jordy last year finished 98, 1,500 yards, and 13 touchdowns. He had 100. Give me those again? 98 catches, 1,500 yards, 13 touchdowns. Now, here's the deal with Jordy Nelson. 15.5 yards per reception. That puts him...

third best of wide receivers who have 75 or more catches. He was fifth in yards after the catch, 558. For some reason, there's a little knock on Jordy because it was 2012. He had some hamstring issues. But for the past two years, he's been dominant. Last year, he was 85, 1,308. Still had 120 targets. Now, if I recall, since you cleared your throw, that means I can jump in and just ask you a question.

If I recall, what hurt him a couple of years ago is he had a big touchdown year and then he came down off of that touchdown year. He was also injured. But so 2011, he finished second, off the top of my head. He was amazing. So where do you project him then? If he's seven or now in ADP, do you have him in the top three? I mean... Top three might be a stretch, but top five, absolutely. He was so great this last year, and I looked up and I thought, okay, well...

You know, it seems like every time I turned on a Packer game, he was catching a 70-yard slant pass for a touchdown. And so I wanted to see what is, what is, you know, yards per reception are, and his yards after catch, and see if those were just, like, inflated. And I went, I went back, you know, till his rookie year. And the thing that is so awesome about Jordy Nelson is that his stats on those statistics continue to rise year by year or stay near the peak. I mean, it wasn't a...

year and you said it perfect he gets no respect i don't i think he earned respect last year i don't think anybody has them off i mean calling him a stud but so he's not breaking news yeah but the respect of a guy who's finished second twice in his career to be going seventh i mean behind behind he behind quarterback behind beckham is just ridiculous i agree a guy who's done it for half a year i agree and he's only 29

Still, he's not, he's not old and past anything. No, he's, he's going to be that exact same value pick where you can get him the back of the second round, or second half of the second round, and you're gold. And if you are playing in a league that gives bonuses, because I would say, it seems like the majority of leagues give bonuses for, you know, over 40 yards. Jordan Nelson's touchdown, yeah. Yeah, high, high quantity of receptions has the trust of the best quarterback in football. And.

Another fantastic thing about Jordy Nelson when you're watching the game, you can be frustrated for three quarters, and it just takes one play for Jordy Nelson. No matter when he is in the game, there's always the option for that one play, which is the same route every single time. That little, the, what is it? Like the sluggo? He runs, you know, and he cuts it in, and he scores. So your fantasy points just skyrocket, his floor.

is always very high. All right. So you had Julio Jones, you had Jordy Nelson, a couple of top 10 locks, but guys that have the potential to be in that top three range. I took a guy that he's a stud to me because he's a guy he's being drafted outside the top 24 in some cases or just barely inside. But he has the potential in my opinion, and we've talked about him before, to be a top 10.

type of wide receiver, especially in a PPR league. And so my stud is Andre Johnson. Andre Johnson. Last year he actually, I don't know if this will be surprising in one direction or another for you guys, but he had 85 receptions last year, 936 yards. That's obviously not an impressive stat line, but it's also a little higher than I think some people might have perceived him in their heads. He's a year removed from a 109 yard, 1,400 plus yards.

Did I say 109 yards? 109 catch, 1,400-yard season. He had 100 touchdown. Who would say that? Clearly, they were phasing him out of this offense. He wasn't happy last year. The quarterback play wasn't something consistent, and...

His numbers were still, I mean, his target numbers, I believe were down over 50 targets last year, but he still put up an 85, 936 year, and he's just 33 years old. So one of the things that I talked about earlier, and the reason he's my stud is because I watched Reggie Wayne come into that offense in that type of role and put up 100 plus catchier, put up 1,300 plus yards. And so what it'll come down to, in my opinion, he's a lock for 90 and 1,000, okay? To me, that's a done deal. He's a lock for 90 and 1,000.

but is he going to get in the end zone? And if he gets in the end zone enough, I think, and that's my projection, right? I believe he will get in the end zone enough in that offense to be a top 10 type of whiteout, and you're going to draft him in that in back of the top 24 position. So that's why I like Andre Johnson. I know it's going out on a limb a little bit, but what are your guys' thoughts on Andre in that offense? Do you think that there's not enough to go around? What are your...

I completely agree with your assessment if he stays healthy. The health has always been a question for Andre Johnson. He has seven years where he played a full 16 games, five where he's missed time. Where the lock is, is if he plays 16 games, he gets over 1,000 yards. Every single year, except for his rookie year. So the other five, he was over 1,000. The touchdowns are a question, but...

That was probably offense related because he's never had a double-digit touchdown season. And just to loop back around to the health, the previous two years he has played the full schedule. Last year he only played 15. But so in recent, if you're going with recency bias, he has been healthy. Yeah, I was going to mention that, so I'm glad you did. I think he plays a full 16. I think that you're not going to have him.

taking on number one coverage. He's had the best defender on him for his entire career. And I think from game to game, you might see that this next year. But I don't know that he's not going to have...

the number one guy on him as a lock playing out of the slot. Exactly. And so his catch rate has been up in the, his percentage of catches on targets has been in the 70s before. And this last season, it was down near 60, which wasn't what, you know, he's had a couple near there. But his drops were the same this year as any other year. He didn't go down, which leads me to believe strongly that it was quarterback play.

That was the big difference for him was, are these catchable balls or not? And if you think, okay, the guy that's going to be guarding him is going to be less good than who he's used to. And the guy throwing him the ball is going to be easily the best quarterback he has ever played with in his entire career. He's never played. I mean, Matt Schaub is the best he's ever had. And...

Now he's going to Andrew Luck on a high power offense. I love the idea of him being there. And you want to talk about a gigantic chip on your shoulder? You're a borderline Hall of Fame player that was just told, hey, you're going to get like 50 catches this year. If you stay. Yeah, if you stay. And he's like, peace. I'm going to Andrew Luck. I'm going to get 100. And correct me if I'm wrong. I believe he plays his former team twice.

Yes, he does. And you might want to go ahead and play him on those games. You might want to pencil him in for a hundred touchdowns. Let me ask you boys this. T.Y. Hilton at the top of the third round, or would you rather have Andre Johnson in the middle of the fifth? Ooh, that's a team dependent. If I went RBRB, I'm going to take Hilton for sure. But that's easy for me. Clearly, Hilton's way above Andre to you.