The TRUTH: WRs Part 2 + Deep Dives & Big Bites - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/7

No, I don't think he could be a super duper star. I think he's a really good player. Mike? I think he's great. I think he can go to a different team and be a number one. I don't think he's digs in A.J. Brown. And I don't think he'll evolve into that. I mean, he's playing with Joe Burrow right now. Sure. And some of that consistency, you miss four games due to Jamar Chase being out, which presumably he'd go somewhere and be the one. I'd say, like, at least we've seen, you know, this past year where Weeks 11 and 12. Jamar Chase missed those two games. T. Higgins, wide receiver four, wide receiver six. And so we at least have a small sample size of when T. Higgins is left as the guy. I mean, he's been able to come through more often than not. It's just really hard. It's hard to be AJ Brown. It's hard to be Tyreek Hill. Stefan Diggs. Doesn't mean you're bad. Could he be a wide receiver one, of course? Well, since the AJ Brown.

discussion I think is interesting on its own of like yeah he came in was that dude right away but davanta smith was had an incredible sophomore season so i mean that was that's part of the store of a j brown's story of he had another player on the other side of the field who was fantastic to help him out true yeah that that's a it's a gamble when you don't know if the guy can yeah you know perform without, I mean, Jamar Chase on the other side and Joe Borough quarterback are some advantages. Let's put it that way. And the team that generally pays the big, big, big, big money is not necessarily the team you want it to be. Yeah, I mean, I think of the Bears, right? They've got Justin Fields. They need. They got their guy. They traded the 32nd overall pick. Chase is on the case. Oh, that is so embarrassing. Don't remind people about that. That's unfair. We have to.

Now, he could just play under his contract now, though, right? Yeah, he should this season. The Bears might be saving money in this equation. Had he done something to flash, they would have had to extend it. Sure. Now they can say you didn't show up yet. You didn't get off the plane. Sir, we traded the 32nd overall pick for you. We need more than 15 yards. Yeah. So we'll see. The Higgins story will be interesting. I don't have any indication. I don't know if you guys do that. They'd move him this off season. No, he'll play out his contract. That's what I think. All right, quick break. And then we are back with some Seahawks, wide receivers. All right. Tyler Lockett at 13 on the year, drafted as the wide receiver, 43. DK Metcalf at 18, drafted as the wide receiver 20. I do remember having the brief moment on the show last off season.

where I said, are we going to come back here? Yep. On this show and just be shaking her heads going, we're stupid because Tyler Lock is that good. And here we are. Taylor Lockett was so good. D.K. Metcalfe was so good. So let me ask you a question. I know this is the truth about wide receivers episode, but was Gino Smith great or was this Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalfe. And that's why Gino Smith. was a very serviceable above average quarterback this year. Was it Gino or was it these guys? It was both. I don't think you can. That wasn't one of the options. No, it's the only option I'm going to answer with. I mean, when you come into a situation, like everybody thought Ross was getting an upgrade in situation. He wasn't. And Gino got the best possible pair of weapons he could have had to succeed in this offense. Lock it.

had a consistency rank of 10. So 56% of the time he had a good game, 13% great, 19% bust. Metcalf had a consistency rank of 17. 6% great, 47% good, 35% busts. You know, Metcalf's big story was he only had six touchdowns because he had more receptions and more yards than Tyler Lockett did. It just ended up in that weird situation where... Like I'm looking at these numbers and I'm not even trusting myself. Because I felt like every time I'm watching the Seahawks game, Gino Smith would just target D.K. Metcalfe in the end zone 50 times. Yeah, but it wasn't. I mean, obviously, D.K. Metcalfe, a great talent. But Tyler Lockett, really, I think is what made that offense move and work, the offensive scheme that they run. Tyler Lockett was absolutely unbelievable. And he was very, very consistent. In fact, his worst game of the season.

was a game in which he only played 30% of snaps after he broke his hand. And, you know, I don't think many players were playing him. Like that one, you know, could have been a legitimate. We should have taken it out anyways because, you know, fantasy managers weren't playing him in that week 17 matchup with the broken hand. He was just outrageously consistent, so good, had ceilings, had a good floor. And going forward, I mean, I... I think he's going to be the better value because D.K. Mekheff will be drafted ahead of Tyler Lach. I will take, if it's not value-based, I will draft D.K. McF. ahead. Yeah. And more targets, more receptions, bigger, I mean, better odds of scoring more touchdowns. Sure. Everyone will take D.K. McF. ahead. And I think Tyler Lockett will be a really, really good value next year. Now, he'll be year 31 season for Lockett next year. Yeah. So, I mean, there's, there's.

Man, his speed, you know, when you've got someone like Deshaun Jackson, the speed and they don't take a lot of hits. You know, you don't see Tyler Lockett usually getting blown up. Oh, he, because he catches and he's like, no, thank you. Yes. He's the Peyton Manning. I love it. Yes. Yes, it's very Peyton Manning. He's like, he caught the ball. He's like, I got what I need it. I'm going down. It doesn't get enough credit. The. The combination of being a fearless NFL player who also completely protects themselves. In Darren Sproul's retirement, speech or he wrote a big retirement letter. He talked about people always ask him, how did he do this at his size? And he's like, he avoids contact. He's like, that's, that was like my main thing was I made sure to avoid contact, go down on my own. And that's what Tyler Lockett does. So I'm, I'm not that worried about his age 31 season. He hasn't lost anything on film. I don't think he's losing his speed at 31 and he doesn't take damage.

very often. Well, I mean, you talk about, he's 510, 180, so he better not. He better not take a lot of damage. It's a lesson for the undersized wide receivers coming into the league. I mean, you look at some of these rookies last year. There were some concussions across the board. I mean, Olave got popped twice. You've got some smaller rookies coming out. This is the script to follow. Be a dynamic deep threat, develop your route tree, and be a first down guy. So, To the conversation of, was it Gino, was it the wide receivers? And I agree. It was just a perfect storm of both of them. But looking at some of the premium pro football focus numbers, Gino Smith had just like an outrageously good season. He looks like he is fourth in deep ball adjusted percent, adjusted completion percent. So, you know, like the pass that should have been caught at basically 53 percent while.

It's having a huge percent of what they call a big time throw, which is a pass with excellent location and timing, and it's generally further down the field. Gino was extremely accurate. I mean, just way better than anyone could have ever possibly imagined. So I do think it's a combination of both. And you can look at the actual analytics of Gino Smith. And you're like, yeah, this guy was incredible going down the field. And not just because. He's getting helped by two elite wide receivers. No, he was doing the right thing. And he's got to get paid now, right? Yes. He does. They have to figure that out, which I think he's back in Seattle. I think he gets a good contract. It won't be Joe Burroughs contract. But, I mean, at the age of Gino, it shouldn't be. If Gino goes somewhere in free agency, which I don't think will happen, but if he did, and whoever, quarterback, Drew Locke.

is their starter next year. We get to have, we would get to have all the same conversations and then find out like, oh man, Drew Locke career year. Most of the, I will bet against Drew Locke. Most of the offseason discussion, to be fair, was about Drew Locke being their quarterback. Yeah. We weren't talking Gino early. It wasn't until preseason that it really seemed to be clicking that Gino was going to hold on to that job. You see Gino put up a five touchdown performance? What in the flag football game? Oh, did he? Oh, yeah. Well, elite weapons again, right? Terry McLaren at 14. Never him. All right. Terry McLaren, Commander's wide receiver, 27 years old. Drafted at wide receiver 15, finished at 14. Hey, with a consistency rank of 14. Let's go, Terry. That has to be as high as finish ever. Yes, it was.

It was a weird year for the commanders in general, the quarterback position. 47% good game, 6% great, 29% bust. It was really nice with Taylor Heineke. I would say week 7 through 13-ish. I mean, I don't know how to feel about Terry McLaurin. I think we all agree he's a good wide receiver, but, you know, where this team is headed. I'm not sure this. I think this might be the ceiling of what you could get. John Dodson is a really good player, missed extended periods of time. Can Terry McLaurin beat out at wide receiver 14 finish? Unfortunately, it's probably the ceiling. I think the player Terry McLaurin could. I put him as, I don't know if I'll go great, but very, very, very good. The stat that is a highlight for me is Terry McLaurin has played four years.

and the NFL, and his already played with eight different starting quarterbacks. Like, that is an absolute travesty for someone whose skill level is of Terry McLaurin's, that you have to deal with this crap each and every year. And, Andy, you are correct of what, well, what is next year? More of the same. More of the same bull crap that Terry McLaurin's going to have to deal with. So he is, I don't blame him for the, the ups, the ebbs and the flows of his game log, because you've seen what happens. When you have a quarterback that comes, when he gets a hyper-target. Like he gets a real, he gets a target share that a top-tier wide receiver should get. He performs. He gives you good fantasy numbers, but then you get guys like Carson Wentz are like, no, I don't want to throw to that guy. I'm just going to do something else, and it's ridiculous.

Yeah, I think that's always going to be his story. You could have Sam Howell come in, though, and he's the best of all of them. And then maybe Tara McLaurin has the best year of his career because he's got the best quarterback of his career. Howell played the last week, right? I believe he did. How did Tara McLaren do that last week? Wide receiver 11, baby. 100% of games with Sam Howell. He is a wide receiver won so far. That is just a fact. It's not an opinion. Okay. So Sam Howells, you're my guy? Yeah, probably. Put it on the board. You could howl a lot. Oh, that'd be a lot of fun. That would be a lot of fun. I'm going to have to do that. I'm going to have to do that every touchdown he throws. That would be fun. Yeah. I mean, what if the whole state got in on that? Washington, I don't recall. Did people do that on the touchdown? Because if you didn't, shame on you. Yeah. Look at yourself in the mirror and say, I was at that game.

I let my city and my country down. Because I didn't howl. Yes. At the moon. You didn't howl for howl. Brandon Ayuk was 15. Number 15 overall. Oh, it didn't feel like it. Debo was 37. Oh, it felt like it. Consistency rank was better for Debo. 20th for Brandon Ayuk. I agree with Jason's sentiment. Some of it was I played 17 games as part of the resume for Brandon Ayuk this year. 78 for 1,015 yards, 8 touchdowns. 29% good games. That tells you the story. That's how it fell. And then Debo is at 38%, but he didn't play as many. So, you know, he still wasn't even on pace. I don't think there's any way that Debo is getting drafted behind Brandon Ayug next year just because of this fantasy finish. No, Debo's the more talented player. He's more predominant in the offense. But I do believe that what this.

What this kind of shows, especially in the Christian McCaffrey version of the San Francisco 49ers, is I don't really love going after this wide receiver core. This is a run first team. And I think that even when you have Brandon Ayuk finish as the wide receiver 15, you would think, oh, fantastic. You got more bust games than good games. And this was probably Iyuk's best. fantasy finish. I don't think he's going to be higher than wide receiver 15, certainly not this year, maybe never again. So the San Francisco 49ers receiving situation is just one that I want to invest in the running backs here, maybe the mobile quarterback and Trey Lance, but the wide receivers, I just, the consistency is going to let you down. They don't throw enough and have enough total volume to have multiple good options.

have consistency. And the suckiest part is they're great because of it. Like in NFL terms, Okay, you want to take Debo out? We've got Iyuk. You want to try to take both of them out? We've got Kittle. The offense clicks and is awesome. But for fantasy purposes, it's going to be a really ugly, bumpy ride. It's going to be the Matterhorn where your neck is just getting whipped left and right. It's like, oh, but it's a great ride. It's a classic. Right. Its team is great. Yeah, it is. But at the end of the Matterhorn, are you happy you win on it? No, I'm not happy I went on it. You still do it, though?

Sometimes, yeah. Look, Debo, if he had played a full season, he would have been in the upper echelon of consistency. It wasn't as good of a year as last year, but at least you know the ceiling is number two. But I'm saying, looking at it, just a quick, this is the 17 game pace. It doesn't factor in, you know, he left this game because of injury. His game log, 73 for 826 and 2.6 touchdowns. I mean, it's like, I have. Some concerns here. It will be about Dabo's price for Debo to me. Yeah, but I just, it's, I think it is a fair question to ask, was that, was the wide receiver to finish? You can say that, well, I know Debo's got that ceiling, but was that just, was that just a complete outlier? That's Debo's best season by far, and he won't come anywhere close to that. I think that's a fair question to ask. Yeah, I mean, that might be his career high.

his best season, but he's also got a season better than this one in him where he missed four games. But I'm saying between the two of them, like Brandon and Iyuk will be turning 25 pretty soon. And like he looks like his trajectory of his career is still going up. If you have to pay close to what you had to pay for Diva last year, we won't need to have this discussion because he won't be on our team. I agree with the neck whipping problems. But look, I'm willing to go on that ride at a discount. If you got like a bass bass, Jason, you go on it anyways. If you can get me into the park on the cheap. So I got to pay your way in. All right, behind the curtain time. So, so when we came in here pre, pre having a bite of mucus or whatever Jason did, we realized that he had gotten a new mute button here in the studio. Yes. Well, if you have been with us this off season, you.

You were a part of the show where I slurped into the mute button, and the mute button didn't work. So they replaced the mute button. That's great. Yeah, they are not all here. Now, Al Borland's been on a cruise for six weeks. And so the new mute button came in. But it's inverse, okay? If you hold to talk and you toggle it on to talk. It's got a toggle switch right now, which it doesn't normally. So if you push it in, it doesn't automatically come out. And based on the beginning of this show, I'm guessing you've been utilizing it quite a bit. Yeah, yeah. And then you just now forgot to toggle it back into the talk position. Mistakes were made. Okay. Okay. We're here. Mistakes started with the mucous sandwich. This shows a lot. This shows a lot like what they say the Matterhorn. Yeah. So your neck is getting whipped around. Oh boy. Buccaneers wide receiver time. Oh boy. Mike Evans was somehow the wide receiver 16.

but felt like his consistency score. Well, that's got it. Which was 36, also known as 55th in the second half of the year. If you're used to our consistency charts and you look at week 9 through week 16, you will vomit. Like that's, there's a disclaimer on the website because the color combination is so ghastly that you will lose your lunch. And then Godwin came in at 20. but his consistency rank was 20. And in the second half, it was six. Like there is no debate that Godwin was a million times better to have on your fantasy roster over the second half of the year. And I would say going forward. Yeah, I mean, we got to find out who the quarterback is going to be for the Buccaneers. I could also see Mike Evans being one of those great elite wide receivers that's traded. There's been, you know, some rumors there of,

more speculation than any kind of substantiated rumors. Well, he'll be a free agent after next year. Yeah, so if they want to capitalize on him, they know that they're not going to have a great offense this year. And he is still a guy that if you are looking to build up your young quarterback and try to find your AJ Brown, your Stefan Diggs, I would go after Mike Evans. He's still got a lot to give. This last year, 1124 yards. You know, he had a pretty good season. He just didn't get touchdowns until they all came in one game in week 17. Thank you, Mike. Yes, for that one. It was delightful. It was great. Just to be, like, he was a disaster for your drafts. Because you drafted him as the wide receiver nine. And do you know how many times he finished at that level or above? It was two times. One was in week four and one was the final week of the year when you were already crying.

Or in your guys' case, chucking him into your lineup. Years of joy. So it just didn't, he didn't deliver on draft value, not even close. Neither did Godwin. Because Godwin, to get the good, good-ish second half, you had to wade through a rough first half. Who plays quarterback for the Tampa Bay of Buccaneers? Because that's my starting point for the conversation. Looking at, and I just. Pulled some numbers real quick for, so two years ago, Tom Brady, his adjusted deep ball completion percentage was sitting at about 48% like in a fantastic year. That dropped by 10 percentage points heading into this year. And so when you felt all those really bad Mike Evans weeks and you would look and you'd see them going through the highlights and the low lights of Mike Evans breaking free.

Tom Brady missing Mike Evans, it's reflected in the numbers. Brady was not good going down the field this year. And now with the retirement, I mean, they are going to, they're up against it. And that's why I think you're talking about do they trade, do they have to blow up the situation and start rebuilding? I assume based on what Todd Bowles has done, which is retain his job and fire everyone. he's wanting to win now. He wants to keep his job and they need to win this next year. They're not going to be able to rebuild and have Todd Bulls stay there. So I imagine they're going to go after someone like Jimmy Garoppolo or someone on the open market and try to say, hey, we've got a team that just won a Super Bowl a couple years ago come in and be the next Brady. Mike, would you rather go on the Buccaneer wide receiver ride or the 49er wide receiver ride?

Oh. You're entering the park. You know both of them are going to do some damage to the old body. I mean, I still have the unknown information of the quarterback. Correct. But let's pretend it peaks at Jimmy Garoppolo. Okay. Because I think it peaks at Jimmy Garoppel. Sure. And it's like as a consolation prize, like the Jimmy Garoppel going there is not the worst thing in the world that could happen. I think I would, oh, man. I think I'd still go with the bucks. I think just the talent of Chris Godwin got better as the year went along. He's still, next year he'll be the full, he'll have the full recovery time from the ACL tear that I think, I think he's back on track. Mike Evans might be slowing down a little bit, but I also think that Mike Evans is, I think his season should have been a lot better. Garrett Wilson's at 19. Oh, baby.

The best rookie wide receiver that we saw last year, Garrett Wilson, you know, every game, even when he didn't deliver for fantasy, you watched him play football, you heard him talk in the locker room. Like, this is the guy that wants to win. He's 22 years old and was a huge value in drafts. Drafted at wide receiver 51, finished at 19, consistency of 29. That was a huge problem. Better in the second half of the year, which is kind of normal for rookies. Viewer games was Zach Wilson in the second half of the year. And fewer in the future, I think. I mean, all the talk out of New York right now is Zach Wilson is going to not be traded, but they hope might develop in a backup role. Yeah. I mean, the team has come out and said that they would love to acquire Aaron Rogers. The, you know, the situation that Garrett Wilson found himself in this year was being an unbelievably great wide receiver.

when Zach Wilson was not on the field. He went from six targets a game with Zach Wilson to 11 targets a game without him. Three receptions to six receptions, 50 yards to 82 yards. He was a fantasy points per game, 14.2 when Zach Wilson wasn't on the field. That's in his rookie season, and that's not with great quarterback play. That's just with... Better than terrible. Exactly. 187 target pace without Zach Wilson. You're talking about a bona fide superstar going forward if they can figure out the quarterback position, which isn't that easy. But even if they don't figure it out to the level of like, okay, Aaron Rogers is coming in or Derek Carter is coming in, if they, you know, go back next year with Mike White, I'm happy. I'm still drafting Garrett Wilson wherever he is at ADP.

Is he a top 12 wide receiver next year? I mean, like, you're talking about finishing at 19 as a rookie. If you say no, Zach Wilson, you know, he had 147 targets as a rookie. Yeah, I think he catches 100 plus passes. I lean, yes, but it's, it's just a slight. It's just one cheek is up and I'm kind of got my head bobbed at the side. Is that what that's what a slight for you is? Yeah, like when you get up on one cheek. When you're leaning in the, when you're leaning into your chair. You don't, you're not raising one cheek in the air?

I think so, but I'm not getting it all the way off the chair. Yeah, it's just slightly. Oh, okay. Jason's just trying it out. Yeah. Everyone at home. How do you lean in your chair? You get a butt cheek in the ground? Yeah, both, both. If I just go from the, you just bend in the torso. Yeah. It's just a torso lean. I don't do a lot of it because then the microphone goes way over. You just got to pull the mic with you. Here's some quick, quick final mentions. Oh, no, don't worry about it. We built this pity. Oh, man.

Michael Pittman comes in at 23 consistency of 28. Gosh. I don't know if you still got that, if you want to hit any of the music. Please. Do we have it? I mean, it wasn't good enough. No. Wasn't good enough for Mike Williams. Missed a ton of time. Did they hire Jeff Saturday yet? Have they done that? The latest reports are that they are down to one final candidate, but we don't know exactly who it is. Wait, that means they have a coach. If you're down to one candidate, you have a coach. We've got to narrow down to this one particular person. I think it's going to be Shane Steichen, who I don't know if they can officially hire him yet. Oh, okay. No, they couldn't. They couldn't hire him. Yeah. So that's the presumption. That was the report. That's. Okay. Look, Mike Williams. We've knew it from two to one, but we're not going to tell you which one. Mike Williams' consistency rank was 13. That's the highlight.

from that story. If you want to look positively, if Keenan departs, Mike Williams just got paid. Still had 93 targets in 13 weeks. We are going to be back in on Mike Williams next year. Should we? Probably, yeah. I mean, Mike Williams came out and in week one was so bad that it felt like a loss. He wasn't that bad. You just talked about our consistency. You know how much crap I got in week one? It was a Thursday night football game, wasn't it? And how much glory Mike got for Michael Pittman. Those guys had opposite week ones. We've got to remember. And then opposite seasons. Yeah. Mike Williams was actually pretty good. Obviously the injury in the middle of the years. What really derailed Mike Williams from being able to be a very good fantasy pick because he had a ton of great finishes. Wide receiver 8, 13, 9, 6, 5 and in unlimited games. So if Keenan Allen is gone, Mike Williams.