Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - Breakouts, Busts, and Debate of the Week

If he surpasses. So that would be outperforming T.I. Hilton. Yes. There is a world where he's better in fantasy football than T.Y. Hilton. He was trending ahead before luck went down. I mean, it's not inconceivable. So be aware of that, people. Yeah, Moncrief's middle of the fifth round. I'm targeting him everywhere. Moncrief would have been my breakout. When we were choosing who to go with, I was deciding between Fleener and Moncrief. So I completely agree with Dante. With Dante. Inferno. His inferno. All right. Michael Floyd.

That is so obvious. What? Dante's Inferno. Well, he's got a light the field on fire first. All you're doing is saying a book name that has his name in it. We'll see if he catches fire. Have you not realized how I make my nicknames? Very obvious things. Yeah. That's how I rolled. Like downtown abbey. Yeah. It's right there in front of you. You just got to reach and grab it. Or misread it. So this should be Dante's Inferno. Yes. Dante.

Yeah, okay. The defenses will be in the seventh layer of hell when they play against Dante Moncrief. The seventh level. All right. Well, I'm going to give some other names to you real quick here. Michael Floyd, Eric Ebron, and James Winston, or three other names that we like as breakout candidates. You can read other ones on the ultimate draft kit. Let's move on to the bus. Bus. That drop is funny to me. It's just so short.

I really like right when he said that, the camera switched to Andy. It was like, bust. Hey. Hey, I don't control the camera. What are you inferring? I'm not the Stephen Ridley of this podcast. Oh, Stephen. RIP. All right. We're going to get into the bust. Look, a bust is a player that does what? Severely underperforms, given their draft position. That was very concise.

Well done description. Yeah, severely underperforms, given their draft position. You have those guys every single year. They crush you. They crush you. They might look beautiful on the outside, but we'll beware, at least consider them as a possible bus candidate. There's some risk involved with these guys. I...

just disagree with one of them so much. That's my favorite one because it's mine. So let's start there, Jason. Why don't you kick it off again? Give me your bust candidate. Sure thing. I will go easy on my bust. The low-hanging, obvious fruit that no one seems to be agreeing with right now, according to his ADP, which is rising and skyrocketing is currently in the fifth. He will probably go higher and be in the fourth.

Which I believe, Andy, is where you had recently said you would take him. And I am speaking of your man, Aryan Foster. All right. Here's why Aryan Foster. That was actually the audible sound of my heart. Yes, I know. We need to get you to a doctor immediately. Here's why Aaron Foster is going to be a bus. You don't want to go there. Aryan Foster right now.

for where he's being drafted is being built up on narratives out of camp. People saying that this guy who they expected nothing out of, that he's looking good. Who expected nothing out of? I would say everybody. The NFL? The NFL. Just people. And then it's like, oh, he came. He passed our physical. Great. Oh, he's running great. He's better than Jay Ajai. Woohoo. And here's the thing. Last year before Arian Foster was injured.

He rushed 63 times for 163 yards. That's 2.1 yards per carry. Now, I know he was okay in the passing game, but a lot of why he was okay in fantasy was the fact that in his four games, he scored three touchdowns. But he is not scoring 0.75 touchdowns a game on the Miami Dolphins. We talk about this a lot.

in other, I mean, all the time, every offseason, the fact that when veterans change teams, we don't have a very good track record at the running back position of success there. So he's got that to overcome. He's got the fact that he's old to overcome. Hey, hey, hey, he's not that old. That's the one thing. He's 29. I believe he'll be 30 this year, which is historically the year that running backs fall off. He's also coming off of a ruptured Achilles, which no running back has done.

He's as healthy as Mr. Glass. I love that movie. I'll say, is that an unbreakable route? That is an unbreakable risk. They call me Mr. Glass. And here's the way that, here's my outlook. I know, Andy, you want me to watch tonight and see what happens because he looked slow to me in his two carries the last preseason game. That's fair. You know, you can't judge two carries. But whatever happens tonight for Arian Foster.

is going to stink. Because if he comes out and looks great, that his draft stock rises. And I don't think there's a world where he plays 16 games and is worth a fourth round pick. That's going to be a bust pick when you grab him. And if he stinks, then that just says he's going to be what I think he's going to be, which is a bust this year. He just got too much to overcome. I joke about Aaronian Foster a lot.

Because we go way back in fantasy football. Everything you said is dead on. And come on. If he's a fourth round pick, I'm not taking Aaron Foster over Jonathan Stewart. Amen. So. But I want to see what tonight is because you have the hope. You have the, like if he could come out and be a top 12 running back. It could just be amazing. That would be your dream. It's not like you haven't spent the offseason talking about how that offense is going to improve. You think it's going to improve with Adam Gaze. The passing game, at least, yeah. Okay.

He's the head coach, though. I mean, it's the whole team. He's an offensive guy. And that's why you made narratives for JHA. But everything you said is right. Everything you said is right. And he's absolutely, he's a bus compared to that draft position. He's a bus candidate, no doubt about it. I'm going to throw a name out there. I've struggled with him. I'll be honest with you. All offseason, I've struggled with him. I wanted to believe. I really did. There was a period of time here. I think a couple months ago I was moving him up quite a bit. I want to believe in Carlos Tye.

And I just don't. I don't believe in Carlos High. He's going ahead of Melvin Gordon right now. He's going ahead of John Stewart. You talk about a fourth round pick. He's almost a third round pick. He's at the top of the fourth. Going ahead of Ryan Matthews. Yeah. Mike can't handle that. He gave me the Doc Brown there. Look, he's a guy. All right? He's a hard runner. He doesn't catch the ball. Sean Drone's going to be the pass catching back predominantly. The big salad himself. The big salad himself.

He's not a breakaway guy. He runs a 4-6-2. He had one carry. One carry last year of over 20 yards. So now you're telling me, okay, he has to be in the red zone to give you touchdowns. He's got to be inside the 10-yard line to give you touchdowns. And I don't think this team's that good. No offense to the 49er faithful out there. We've been talking to, we had lunch with one of our riders that's a big 49er fan. I think you know it. I think you know the fact that this team's not going to be that good. They're in a very tough division.

And here's something interesting, too. We talk a lot about the one statistic that we love about Carlos Hyde. And we say he's a yards after contact, break, tackled kind of guy. And he was. Statistically, he was very good. But here's the thing. He was dead last in the league in terms of when he, how soon he received contact. Yards before contact. Yeah, yards before contact. Just one yard. He didn't create separation from the defenders.

The line didn't – The line didn't do him any favors. And so he broke some of those arm tackles, the leg tackles, but I think that inflated that number. And based on what I've seen, he got stuffed a lot in the preseason. He's a really – I think he's an actual good player, but he's capped. He is ceiling capped here because he's not going to be in the red zone a ton. He's in a tough division. He's got players behind him to play on third down. And –

It's all about that draft position, right? I wouldn't make any of these arguments if he was sitting there as a six-round pick. Yeah. I got to make him at the top of the fourth. So he's my bus candidate. Yeah, I feel like for Carlos Hyde, I feel like I'm in a desert party and there is a shirtless man playing the saxophone, and he's very, very sweaty and lubed up because I still believe. I still believe in Carlos. Are you that saxophone? You're that player? I'm referencing the lost boys. Clearly, you guys are not on board with this.

It's okay. Our listeners will. I still believe in Carlos Hyde. I agree, though, that the draft position stinks. I really wish he was in a fifth or sixth round pick. The one thing I will, a part of the reason I love Carlos Hyde. Shout out to my man, Adam Pfeiffer on Twitter. Talked about this stat. This was Carlos Hyde running from the shotgun last year. 54 carries for 284 yards and two touchdowns. That's 5.3 yards of carry. Chip Kelly's going to run out of the shotgun.

We just, we know that's going to happen. So I believe, but the draft position just, I don't know if I can make that decision over the guys. So you might say Carlos Hyde is your Aaronian Foster. Maybe. I don't know. Where you want to believe. Yeah. The draft position makes you hesitant, but you can see a way in which he would perform. Okay. That's, yeah, when you, yeah, that's very fair. So my bus candidate, I'm going with Matt Forte. He's going in the middle of the fourth round.

Similar to Foster. He's a 30-year-old guy going to a new team. Hasn't very, fared very well in the past. Matt Forte has over 2,500 touches. That is a lot of work in the NFL. The guy has been great. He's been fantastic. I just think that the breakdown is coming. And not only do I see the breakdown coming, there's competition there in the New York Jets for a guy going in the middle of the fourth round. Matt Forte signed a three-year, $12 million deal. Not bad for a guy who's aging.

Belal Powell signed a three-year deal for $11.25 million and is 27. So clearly they like Powell almost just as much as Matt Forte because Belaw Powell is spectacular in the passing game. Pals look great this preseason too. And Matt Forte, hopefully we get to see him this third week of preseason, but he hasn't played yet. He's already injured. So let's say there's a world we see Bilal Powell eating into Matt Forte's passing down's work. Well,

There's another guy who's going to eat into Matt Forte's goal line possibilities, and that is Kyvie Robinson, who is a bruising back. He's going to be great on the goal line. And then another shout out, Scott Barrett is on the show weekly. So, because he's giving me great nuggets that I already knew, but he put it into a statistical thing for me to share on the air. Here is the Matt Forte goal line success from 2007 to 2015. When he's 1 to 2 yards out,

He is the worst among qualified running backs. And that's guys with over 25 carries. He's converting 38% of the time. One to three yards out. Second worst. One to four yards out. Third worst. One to five yards out. Third worst. He's not a goal line back. We wonder why he never got the goal line work in Chicago. Do you think he was just getting stuffed in practice all the time? And that's why the Michael Bush situation was there. The coach is new that you can't run him on the goal line. That's not his specialty.

But his specialty is catching the ball. Blal Powell. I just, I don't see any way Matt Forte returns on his fourth round value. I think Vorté can be fine for fantasy purposes, just like Carlos Hyde, but not in the fourth round. Sure. Yeah, that's a very good point. We have some other guys, kind of regression candidates. Tyler Eifert's another name that we throw out there as a regression guy. Obviously, he had just such a high touchdown total last year.

We're not big fans of Big Ben for his draft position. Not at all. He was almost my bustler. Just for where he's going in normal, your average draft, his name is better than his fantasy production. Yeah. So you can check out more of those guys, see our rankings and stuff on the website, the fantasy footballers.com. We had a few people email us asking if we had...

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Twice a week we're doing the show after the show. We're going to do that today. Hey, and fantasy jocks.com for all your trophy needs. Use promo code footballers. Thank you to fantasy jocks. All righty. Well, see you tomorrow. Thank you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join the foot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers. Football is officially going.

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