Ice & Fire Picks + Listener League, Little Giants - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/2

All right, I'm going to talk about a stalwart of fantasy football, someone who has dominated for us at the running back position year after year after year. It's Mr. Alvin Camara. We're going to get right into it. Ice. I am very, very concerned about Alvin Camara heading into the 2023 season. Yes, there is an ADP dip. because we don't know what's going on. We're going to have more clarification of will he miss any games or not. I'm projecting he will miss at least a couple games anywhere from one to four, but that matters. Like when you're drafting a player who is suspended, they can't go on your IR. They just sit there on the bench waiting, waiting to unleash them. Meanwhile, they are absolutely killing.

The moves that you can make when hot waiver guys pop in week one. And you're just like, well, I got to sit here with Alvin Camara. But here's the ugly side of the story on top of that. The efficiency has gone down. We have a full, like Lamar Miller situation here. Over the last two years, his volume, the volume we've all been screaming at New Orleans to give us. Give it, like, we need Alvin Camer to touch the ball more. Tons and tons of carries the last two years. Last year was the lowest yards per carry. of his career. It was a bad year. Yeah. He was really bad last year on the advanced metrics. Over the first four years of his career, he had at least one 40 plus yard rush. In the last two years, he's barely like 30 was his longest. Like the explosive plays on the ground, they just haven't been there for Alvin Kamara the last two years, despite the volume. The receptions have gone down since the Drew Brees years. We have six total rushing touchdowns the last two years.

And like Andy said, the terrible efficiency marks. You know, it was over the past two years a touchdown per 77 carries. That's not the Alvin Camara that we've grown to love over his first few years in the league. Then look at his competition, right? We have Jamal Williams who got himself a nice, decent contract. And then they spent a day two pick on Kendra Miller, which to me... really emphasizes how the New Orleans Saints feel about Kendrae Miller because not only did they spend a higher draft capital pick, which we want. Our running backs, we want a day one or a day two pick. He was hurt at the time. And NFL teams, if you've been paying attention to the draft for any amount of years, are scared, poopless for anyone who is injured.

In the draft season, you get outliers like Jameson Williams, who was coming off of an ACL tear, and they still took him in the first round. The Lions did. But for the most part, running backs who are hurt, even if they're really good, they just tumble down draft boards. Look at Sean Tucker. Like, this guy was an incredible running back, and teams just, he went undrafted. Like, teams are like, we're not even going to spend a sixth or seventh round pick on this guy. He's hurt. We're going to see what he can do, and maybe we'll try and get him as an undrafted free agent. Last year.

You had Alvin Camara getting on that volume because here are the running backs who took snaps for the Saints last year. Jordan Howard, Dwayne Washington, Eno Benjamin, David Johnson, Tony Jones Jr., Mark Ingram, Latavius Murray. This was the competition last year. Man, David Johnson played for the Saints last year. Dude, when I went and looked at this list, it blew my mind. Like Eno Benjamin. I forgot he was on the team for a couple weeks. Yeah, he got picked up after the Cardinals dumped him. Like I said, Jamal Williams, Kendrae Miller. We have actual competition for him now, especially at the goal line. Both Jamal Williams and Kendrae Miller are big-bodied powerbacks that you can just put it on the goal line and get two yards. Jamal Williams was incredible at it last year. Nick Underhill, who is a beat reporter for the Saints, has already highlighted Kendra Miller multiple times throughout the training camp experience. Again, the suspension is incoming. And then here is a stat,

just kind of highlights everything because Alvin Camara is, look, he's at the age cliff, okay? He is 28 years old. Peering out across. Yeah. For running backs, which this factors into the whole running back discussion that's been going on for several weeks now with guys trying to get paid. Since 2014, only 10 running backs averaged 12. plus fantasy points per game in their age 28 season, which is not that great. Alvin Camara was barely over 12 points last year and finished as the running back 18, appearing in 15 games. You have to have an outlier touchdown season from Camara. So those 10 running backs, all of them had 12 plus touchdowns except for Aaron Jones last year and Joy Bell, who sometimes.

You always have a wild name when you have these stats. It just, it seems like a really bad bet. We still got it. That's Joach Bell baby. Joy Bell was the original tuba guy. Yeah. It just seems like a really bad bet to carry a 28 year old running back whose efficiency has plummeted and he has to get touchdowns. Meanwhile, you have, you have a young buck and then a guy who just had a bazillion touchdowns last season. That's a lot. It is. It is a lot of touchdowns. But I am, Alvin Camara is pretty much off my draft board, if anywhere close to where he's going. Let me ask you this then, Jason, Mike. What's he worth if?

Alvin Camarrett. Like, I think he's going to catch 50 passes for this team. Yeah. I've been watching the camp stuff. I mean, the receiving game, that's where he excels. If he catches 50 passes. He caught 57 last year. Yeah. If he catches, but he's a part of this offense with the touchdowns not guaranteed, what's he truly, like, take the name out of it. Yeah. Are you, and is a suspension going to play a part and whether you're willing to hold that? Like, if he's just 50 catches and he doesn't have a bunch of touchdowns and he suspended three games, I mean, you're wasting a roster spot, aren't you? That's how I am looking at it. Yeah, if, I mean, the thing is, is we're going to know hopefully here pretty soon. Yeah. What the suspension is or isn't. And that will allow his ADP to rest because obviously right now he's the running back 29. He doesn't cost a ton. And if he had no suspension, I'd be like, no, I mean, of course that that's a fine draft pick to get a guy at running back 29 who's such a good pass catcher and has done it before.

but if he loses a couple games and then you've got to hold him and you have everything you described. I've had a really hard time every time I'm, you know, around his ADP going, do I want to do it? Because I do see, you know, he's definitely getting less and less efficient, but he still catches the ball. So he's not a bum. He's not off my boards. But you make a really compelling case of the fact that the competition. Be careful. Is super different now. Okay. Well, let's, let's. Turn the page for a moment and let's talk about T. Higgins. I mean, who doesn't love T. Higgins. I love T. Higgins. I mean, T. Higgins is a great player. Ice. Oh. Right? We are bringing the fire today. I think we'll have some good discussion in a moment. This one I am, I feel very strongly about not because, look, we're not sitting here doing an ice and fire show about.

You know, you just talked about George Kittle. He's a very talented player. He plays a huge role. He's going to have tied in one weeks on the year. But it's about the draft cost. It's about what to expect from this roster and this team. And the more I dove into T. Higgins and looked at this draft cost and looked at what kind of player he actually is relative to the draft cost. He's an ice player for me this year. And I'm sorry because I know we like watching and play football. He is drafted as the wide receiver 12 right now in the third round. In fact, I think we've been in quite a few mocks where you've had that chance to grab him and maybe I'm misremembering, but you guys have passed at times on T. Higgins when you're staring down some of these other options. You're drafting him at his super tippy top ceiling, in my opinion. Wide receiver 12 is a position and a finish that he's never.

approached before. He had four of 17 weeks last year. We actually finished inside the top 12 at all. And two of those four weeks were without Jamar Chase on the field. And I know a lot's been said about he was banged up. And so he started some games and they didn't play some games. Look, I'm looking at what to expect from him this season. He's finished at wide receiver 17. That was his peak last year. But you are now expecting, and this is the headline that I want you to hear. You're expecting a player who is 42nd in the league in targets per route run to finish as a top 12 receiver on the Cincinnati Bengals. I think he's a top 24 guy. I think that's where he'll end up. But he's going ahead of players that I think, you might admit, have higher upside. D.K. Metcalf and the end zone targets and his...

ability to be the one in the offense. Chris Olavé, Mike, who we talk about having a tremendous upside. And I'm going to throw another wide receiver two or one B, whatever you want to say. Devante Smith, I'd much rather have him and pick him at this spot than I would T. Higgins. And so you have this choice with T. Higgins where, look, yes, he's a highly productive player, but you can pass on him. and draft highly productive players a round or two later. Matt Caff and Debo are more than a round later than T. Higgins. Keenan Allen and Calvin Ridley are two rounds later than T. Higgins. And so I am not willing at this draft spot to take him where he has to finish well above his highest career finish because I just don't think it's realistic. Like T. Higgins, here's how it happens. And you're going to say it's the same thing you said about,

George Kittle, 10 plus touchdowns. If T. Higgins ends up 10 plus touchdowns, then he can overcome being 42nd and targets per route run and not necessarily running as many routes as some of the top tier wide receivers. But if he doesn't get 10 plus touchdowns, I really think you're going to be unhappy with the cadence of performances from T. Higgins. So I think it's a hot take because I don't think anybody said anything negative about T. Higgins this off season, which is evident in the ADP of wide receiver 12. But I really just don't think. I think the Joe Burrow Cologne is rubbing off. And I think anything that touches Joe Cool, it's getting an ADP bump. But, yeah, I think he's too expensive. That's really my case. And I, you know, I have no clue if you agree or not. Yeah, I eat, does it smell like cool water? What's the Joe Cool fragrance? I really don't know. Cool water's not nice enough. No, Joe Cool. I mean, I don't know. Google, what's the most expensive Cologne? He smells good.

Oh, that's how I know what smells good? I'm sure. I don't know. That's the most Jason thing I have ever heard. Does anyone in this room, do you have a fragrance that you wear? Is anyone? No. Owl, acts body spray? Something like that. Oh, yeah. That's funny. I've got Dior. That's mine. Okay. Eeyore? It's a real sad smell. It's just depressing. I put it on whenever I feel bad. Eeyore. By the way, Kyle sharing this with us over the last five years, if you want to be top 12, you average 97 receptions for over 1,300 yards and 9.5 touchdowns. That's a very high bar, and it's not that he couldn't do it. It's that he's going to have to have his career best year, and then you've broken even on your draft pick. That's the point. So I will say this. I agree with you that you are drafting him.

basically at his ceiling. You're, you know, I don't think you're drafting a wide receiver at 12 that is not going to finish as a top five guy. You're hoping he finishes his wide receiver 12. There are spots in the draft where that's what you're staring at. You're staring at guys that are near their ceiling and that's what you've got to draft. And obviously, that's more common in the first few rounds. So it's just a matter of your confidence in the player, your confidence in the situation, your confidence in the team. I think the best stat that you shared was. where he was in Routes Run, that gets a little bit scary. But I do think it is worth at least giving the other side of the argument in the, you know, you brought up that T. Higgins had a couple games he missed. He basically didn't play in three games. Now, if you look at his game log, he didn't miss a game. Sure. He was there. And so it looks like he, you know, he finished. Yeah, I missed the absent Buffalo game, obviously.

that everybody did. But he didn't physically 1% snap share in one game. Exactly. So only 16 games and then he had three games where he went out early. So you're talking about 13 games where he finished as the wide receiver 17. So you could see the path. But I went back and I looked because Chase missed some games. You talked about Higgins had big games without him. In the games, there were nine full games that Jamar Chase and T. Higgins played together. And the 17-game pace of those games for T. Higgins would have been 136 targets, 87 receptions, 1192 yards, and 9.5 touchdowns, which is right around there. Last year, if he had done that, that would have been the wide receiver 8. So T. Higgins is really good, but I, you know, if you think other people going next to him have.

the actual chance to finish as a top five guy or at a different position being better, then I think it's a good ice argument to be made. All right. Jason, I think you're up. I am up, and I'm going to talk about a player that was on yesterday's show in an important way. It is a player that, look, one of our producers just hates, just absolutely hates. And that producer is Kyle Borgignoni. Yeah. Last night, he had a chance to draft Keenan Allen. And he must have been like, man, Keenan's so ice. But he's wrong. Fire. Keenan. And the joke here is that this is a joke for one person. Right. No, I think there's like four or five of us that are enjoying this. Keenan Allen, I think is a fire pick.

He is obviously a great wide receiver, has been for the last six years. Since 2017 over the last six years, he ranks only behind Devante Adams in total targets, receptions, first downs. He's just been really, really great. You look at the last six years, he finishes the wide receiver 3, 12, 8, 14, 14, and then last year was bad. He finishes the wide receiver 42, but that's because he only played in 10 games, and he missed basically the first 10 weeks of the season. However... When he got back from week 11 on, he was not good. He was great. He was the wide receiver four in fantasy from that point forward. So you're like, I know he's consistent. I know he can get a lot of targets and in PPR leagues is good, but I just don't think he's got a ceiling. Yes, he really does. He can get it done every single game as the first read target for a great offense with a great quarterback. You know,

We talk about Kellan Moore coming over to this team for the Chargers. I'm very excited to see them open this offense up a little bit and to have Herbert, who I love for Fantasy this year, not be playing with broken ribs and hopefully have his targets. But Kellan Moore has done a lot with the slot player. If you look at the last three years, in 2022, C.D. Lamb led the NFL in receiving yards from the slot. In 2021, Cedric Wilson quietly had the third most slot touchdowns behind only Cooper Cup and Devante Adams. In 2020, rookie CD Lamb had the second most slot receiving yards in the NFL, and Keenan Allen is a dominant slot player. If you think about the great slot players right, Cooper Cup, right? Just dominating. Cooper Cup and Keenan Allen last year both had nine games where they played the whole game. And in those games from the slot, Keenan Allen had more receptions, more yardage, and a higher quarterback rating.

from the slot. He's going to do a lot from the slot? I think you're going to do a lot from the slot. That's what Keenan Allen's going to do. That's getting me hot. And the, I think the reason people are afraid is because he's 31. I don't love drafting old players. Well, all these injury symbols that are next to all of these game logs also concern people. Yeah, I mean, early, early in Keenan Allen's career was thought, oh, he's a huge injury risk. And then all of a sudden, He wasn't, and then last year he was. Right now, he's healthy. I believe, I mean, he's looking great in camp from all the reports. And age 31 is not a death knell for wide receivers whose trait is getting open from the slot. In 2016, Larry Fitzgerald led the NFL in receptions at age 33. He was the wide receiver 11 that year. Emmanuel Sanders, Julio Jones, Adam Thielen, all top 20 wide receivers.

at that age. Last year at age 30, he averaged the most red zone targets per game in his career. So I think a lot of people are worried they see him as someone that doesn't have upside. Here's what I believe Keenan Allen is. Keenan Allen is a solid foundational piece of a fantasy roster that's going to have a high score every single week. He is going to have the most targets for one of the best offenses from one of the best quarterbacks. good at football. He's getting an upgraded offensive coordinator, and their lines should be a lot healthier. So when I look at Keenan Allen, I don't see a lot of risk there. That's the way that I view the pick. I think he's going to have a phenomenal season this year.

Yeah, I think the baseline foundation of building your team on a Keenan Allen is great. I don't think you're going to get, and we've seen him for how many seasons now? He's got 10 seasons played. He doesn't score a lot of touchdowns. It just doesn't happen for Keenan Allen. He never has. So, I mean, he averages 5.3 per season. I think he's had a couple years with eight, most of them with four or five. You know, he accumulates a lot of numbers in an offense. And so, look, it encourages me greatly as somebody who has Keenan Allen on a dynasty roster that you think so highly of him. I told you this week, I had made the offer, floated it out, Keenan Allen for Calvin Ridley. Interesting. Then I saw you made him your fire pick. And I withdrew the offer to reconsider. Oh, smart man.

I'm excited about both of those players, but they're very different archetypes. Like Calvin Ridley, it's the kind of player that you're going to get, you know, multi-touchdown big play potential. Keenan Allen is a Tannicatch type of guy, which, I mean, to be fair, that's kind of what Cooper Cup is, except for Cooper Cup just scores like 17 times. So, you know, it is, you look at the game log last year, that run that you talked about. It was, it wasn't like bouncing between number four, number, you know, 32, number six, number 40. It was 22, 13, 15, 20, 13, 23. I mean, it was just peppered with targets, reliable first down target. And I guess there's really no reason we need to go away from that other than fear of age. Yeah. And, you know, if you compare them to T. Higgins, right, T. Higgins's going to maybe he'll finish. I was going to ask you that question. Maybe he'll finish higher. But I would prefer Keenan Allen in the fourth round as my fourth.

player on my roster than drafting T. Higgins as a top 12 guy. That's the T. Higgins case is there's some players that I think, you know, Keenan Allen is one of them where you can wait around, take somebody else in the third, maybe get yourself a little Mark Andrews, you know, look at who you'd take. Do you want T. Higgins plus a fourth round pick or do you want like Mark Andrews and Keenan Allen? Give me that. All right. So maybe that'll talk Kyle back into him. I don't know. Maybe. Maybe. We got one more name. All right, from Keenan Allen. So we're going out with the old, in with the new. Fire. Zay Flowers. Zayfire. Rookie for the Baltimore Ravens, who is currently going, as most rookies do. He's in the back of the ninth round. Wide receiver 46. So here's the case for Zay Flowers. Number one, first round draft pick, 22 overall. We love that. We love having that day one draft capital.

of the first round wide receivers. If you're looking at their actual production profile, which, if you're new to that term, a production profile is like their percentage of their team. So their percentage of their teams receiving yards, receptions, touchdowns. Zay Flowers has the strongest production profile of the first round wide receivers. He was dominant. Now he went to a smaller school, but. We love seeing that a player just absolutely took over. What's going on with the rest of the Baltimore Ravens wide receivers? Well, Rashad Bateman, who knows? Like, we had, so we've had some bad vibes with him this off season. He had to get the shot in his foot, which Matthew Betts had highlighted. This is not a normal thing for the injury that he's recovering from. He's just, he's still not around. OBJ, yes.

They gave him a ton of cash. I totally understand that. But look at the facts about where we are with Odell Beckham. He's 31, much like Keenan Allen, except he is coming off his second ACL tear. He didn't play last year, and he hasn't been the Odell Beckham fantasy force in years. When he was with the Rams, he got that trade. Was he traded? released. I don't remember. But he ends up on the Rams for the Super Bowl run. Yeah, that was a mid-season trade. Like, he had a couple decent weeks as a ram because he was catching some touchdowns. But do you realize in those eight games, he was averaging just over three receptions and 38 yards? Like, that's, that's not. Three for 38. I think, I think you could aim higher. Yeah, that's not getting it done. Look at Lamar Jackson. Look, it has, it's been a while for Lamar Jackson since we've seen that prolific.

passing touchdown season. But last year, when he had an actual wide receiver won, Rashad Bateman, Bateman was healthy for three games. In those three games, Lamar Jackson threw 10 touchdowns combined. Like, he can still absolutely get it done. Now let's look at the opportunity for just the Baltimore Ravens offense. Since 2019, here's how the Ravens have ranked in neutral pace. Back with the old, we're going to grind it out, high tea, run, run, run, run, run. Lev Bell, Devonta Freeman, Latavius Murray. Neutral pace ranks since 2019. 32nd, 31st, 28th, 32nd. We don't like that because we want a high-paced offense. High-paced offense means many, many opportunities. Todd Monkin, the new head, the new offensive coordinator, back his years with the Bucks, neutral pace, fourth, fourth.

11th. Last year the Ravens used 11 personnel, which is three wide receivers, just 12% of their plays. This was dead last. Todd Monkin with the Buccaneers, 69% because Todd Monkin wants to air the ball out. And can Lamar get it done? Well, Lamar's rank in fantasy points per dropback. Last year, third, seventh. First in 2020. Lamar Jackson is a good quarterback who can get the ball where it needs to be. His mobility just helps his players get open. Zay Flowers is one of these players. He is a, he's not an overwhelming physical force. Yeah, can, can, Lamar throw it to little guys? Yes, he can. Zay Flowers gets open. And the Baltimore Ravens clearly believe that the size is not going to be an issue. 5-9-182. Is that what he is? Yeah.

He's a first-round pick, and he wins with tactical skill of getting open. He's a tremendous, he's a tremendous wide receiver. Lamar Jackson is already saying, I'm going to call him joystick, which is an overplayed nickname in the NFL at this point. But the point remains that Lamar Jackson is very impressed. The training camp has, the training camp hype has been. Really nice for Zay Flowers. That's not everything. That is just another piece of the puzzle to go along with my confidence already in what I think the Ravens offense is going to be. And I think it's very possible that Zay Flowers ends up as the number one wide receiver for the team. It could take a couple weeks. It usually does for rookie wide receivers. But I think by the halfway point of the season, spending that...

the back of the ninth round, I think you have a player who's going to be an impact player for your fantasy football teams. What's interesting here is that you have two storylines, in my opinion. You have the case for the talent of Zay Flowers, the player. First round draft capital, you know, how quickly young wide receivers ascend compared to, you know, these older guys. And then you have a case for kind of a reimagined Baltimore offense. And that's a case that you two have been making strongly. with good reason throughout the offseason about what to be excited for with Lamar and a pass heavy offense and more creativity and driving the ball down the field. And we all want to see that from Lamar Jackson. So, you know, it could be one of those things where like three weeks into the season. This is like the most obvious take in the world. And right now it's not. But like Zay Flowers being the young, talented, I mean, think about going into the season Justin Jefferson's rookie year.