Fantasy Football - AFC North Breakdown + Don’t Be Surprised! - Podcast for 7/7

Whereas, Mike Tomlin, I just felt like you kind of knew exactly what you were going to get. Hopefully, you have much more passing this year. I think we've seen that from Mike McCarthy. The fact that they went out and got Michael Pittman, you know, traded for him, paid him. They drafted Jeremy Bernard with one of their high draft capital picks. Yeah, as a second-round pick. I mean, this looks like a team that wants to pass the ball more than what Mike Tomlin did. Well, I mean, even if they don't, the fact you have the most vacated targets, Johnny Smith, Kenny Game, while Calvin Austin leaving, Pittman should get a ton of targets.

They brought in Rico Dowdle. Jeremy Bernard will have an opportunity to crack into the rotation. But I also think— He's competing with Roman Wilson right now for the wide receiver. Okay, so he'll win that. He probably should, yes. I will say this. Like, with the vacated targets— I won't be surprised. You won't be—thank you, Mike. You are really going in on that line. I think Pat Frymuth is the biggest sleeper on the team. Really? In terms of— A muth? I think he's the biggest sleeper on the team. Yeah, I think— He's been so tight. I mean— He's got to get Luth again.

Johnny Smith— You're saying because of the Kenny Gainwell type of targets that are— And Johnny Smith being gone. I mean, both of those situations— And, you know, Michael Pittman will get his. I just think if you wanted to tell me, like, pick a tight end that just out of nowhere has 10 touchdowns this year. I think Pat Frymuth is my answer to that question. It doesn't mean that— If Arthur were there, I think I would agree. Yeah, I mean, that's another big change. Brian Angelico is taking over. Arthur Smith is gone. Last year, they were tied for the lowest percentage of targets to the wide receiver position.

At 45%, which is— Yeah, but what percentage of your own targets, if you were a quarterback, would you throw to DK Mechel? Me? Yeah, you personally. You're dropping back to pass. Me? I don't even like it, but I still would hyper-target him. Yeah. He's gigantic. He is big. Yeah, it would have been like 30% last year. So, look, the offense is going to be something we're paying close attention to in terms of what does Aaron Rodgers have left. Can—you know, it's one thing to say they want to pass it more. It's another thing to say, like, the depth of target—

Yeah. The—you know, it fits Pittman. It fits Fryer-Muth. It fits backfield targets for Jalen Warren. It doesn't fit— Heidenreich. Yeah, go. Just throw more names in there. Pick. Seventh round pick. Yeah. Hopefully, miss. Listen, let me just— No, no, no. No, no. Miss Navy. Yes, thank you. No, you don't get to talk about— I know. —any Pittsburgh depth at running back for one year. I agree. You get one year. All right, I'll take my— You get one year off. All right. I agree. He's also going to be on the practice squad. Hopefully. So enjoy that. Maybe. So let's talk fantasy, though.

Yes. Let's talk how we're actually viewing, I think, the big names. Metcalf, Pittman, Jalen Warren, and maybe the Rico Dowdle. What that looks like in the equation. Yeah. For me, when I went back and I watched the tape of Aaron Rodgers, he looked like he had to check everything down. When I watched his clean pocket 20-plus air yard throws, it was really bad. I mean, I don't know that he really has that in his arsenal anymore, and I don't think it was a weapon problem. I mean, Calvin Austin can get open deep. DK Metcalf is good enough to receive those targets.

They were very bad. This is why, personally, I have Michael Pittman leading in targets, because I think they might not be as valuable as deep down the field, but I think the possession type of receiver is something they really, really need. So for fantasy purposes, I don't think there's going to be a lot to love here, but I do have, personally, Pittman in the lead at target. Mike, if you look at your rankings, do you have Pittman or DK Metcalf leading in fantasy points in like a half point? I have Metcalf higher with just some more touchdown opportunity, but neither of them

are ranked out of control. They don't look like primary targets, I would say, in the draft. I have Metcalf ahead of Pittman in fantasy points total. Targets were more ahead in Pittman, and both outside the top 30. The number one Pittsburgh player off the board in fantasy right now. Do you want to guess the round? Eight. Yeah, I feel like it's... No. Does Metcalf drop into the eighth? I'll go seventh. The first Pittsburgh player off the board in fantasy right now is Jalen Warren in the sixth round. Okay. Jalen Warren, one thing to pay attention to there, like the workload has increased year

over year. Averaged 16 opportunities a game last year. But if you look at his five zone carries, the opportunities he had to get into the end zone, he converted four of 14. So 29%. Whereas you look at Rico Dowdle, he converted six of his eight opportunities last year in Carolina. Yeah, I'm... The backfield I do think is interesting. Not sure which of them is going to end up being the leader, but just a reminder, Rico Dowdle played with Mike McCarthy when Rico had his breakout year in Dallas. He wanted to. What's that? I said he really wanted to play for Mike McCarthy.

Well, he did. No, I know. When he broke out and had 1,000 rushing yards, when he had to take the job away from Ezekiel Elliott, and Rico's not a nothing in the passing game. You don't think of him that way, but he's actually solid. His hands are fine, and you can get it going. I'm not saying he's better than Jalen Warren, but I'm saying in terms of him just being on the field, he can operate in that part of the offense as well. So I lean... You lean on the Rico side? Based off of ADP and everything, I lean on the Rico side.

Yeah, it's an argument to be made that you get the discount to take the second guy going later. I assume he's at least around later, but sometimes in mocks I've seen him go back to back. No, he's around and a half later. I would take the bet on Jalen Warren simply because Aaron Rodgers, Mike McCarthy, they've played together before. Aaron Rodgers is going to check the ball down, but Aaron Rodgers wants... He's got the quick step drop where he is timing and rhythm, and he wants his guy in the exact right spot. I think Dowdle is a better athlete, more explosive.

But Warren, the way that Rodgers talked about him last year, I know he got injured and then Kenny Gainwell kind of stepped in, but the way he talked about Warren was like that veteran who he can rely on. And so I do think that's who Rodgers is going to want on the field. That's a huge part of it that we don't know. Yeah. But just like Rico, you know, and his two years... We'll go the past three years, his catch rate is great. It's 77% or higher. You know, yards per catch, eight and a half, down to 6.4 and then 7.6 this past year with

Carolina. He has it, is what I'm saying. So if I'm making the bet in the draft, the more... While Warren probably profiles as the pass catcher, there's a chance that Rico's the first and second down guy, which he'll still get plenty of targets playing for Rodgers if that's his role, plus goal line. That has me lean Dowdle in the draft. By the way, the last three teams and seasons that Rodgers has played, 14 fantasy points, 15 fantasy points, 14 fantasy points per game. So we are many years removed from... Yeah. Now split that up amongst all the targets. Yeah. That is a huge problem.

I will say only 54 targets for Frymeath last year in this offense. He's had seasons of 98 and 70s multiple times. Just keep it in the very deep recesses of your mind and probably don't worry about it too much. All right. Baltimore. The Baltimore Ravens. I mean, what a... The AFC North is full of a lot of transition from long tenures of the head coaching position. Last year, their projected win total, 10 and a half. They were 2-5 in one score game. So you talk about the inverse of what the Steelers did. That's something that you could see, especially with Lamar Jackson being healthy.

2-5 is pretty extreme. They win 8-9. Their win total this year is up to 11 and a half. I think there's a lot of excitement about Baltimore. They were 10th in points per game last year on the offensive side, 15th in yards per game. But a brand new head coach, Jesse Minter, Declan Doyle, year one offensive coordinator. So before we get into the names and the players, just your reaction to the change. Harbaugh and Tomlin had been the rivalry for years and years and years. Now you've got a young defensive-minded head coach in Jesse Minter. How do you feel about the transition?

For the transition, I'm fine. Overall, we side on you'd rather have your offensive mastermind being your head coach. Declan Doyle's coming in. He is a protege of the Ben Johnson system, which that's super exciting. We had the McVay guys leave out and scatter amongst the NFL. And really, those are the teams that we go after for fantasy football. Ben Johnson, I think, is going to have the same type of tree. His offense, he's just... Ben Johnson's smarter than you are. That's just how I feel about him. So Declan Doyle coming down is exciting for this year. You would be... If I'm Baltimore, I'd be concerned that if you're good, you're going to lose Declan Doyle.

But that's just... That's longer term. Yes, that's the zoomed-out, long-term version. But for this year, I think it's pretty exciting. I think there's a lot of excitement for him. Yeah, and I think that the win total says a lot about what's expected. Jason, do you have thoughts on that transition? Yeah, I mean, I don't see it as an up arrow. Because Todd Monken was someone we loved. It's not like you're going from a bad offensive mind. You know, Todd Monken in year two, two years ago with Lamar, was unbelievable. You know, Lamar put up, you know, fantasy-breaking stats again. And so I do like Declan Doyle.

I think he might be good, but good to me is sideways. The win percentage, I think, is fantastic. The fact that they're projected for 11.5 with the sixth easiest schedule coming up, that gives me excitement more for, really, Derrick Henry. The running game, I think that, obviously, at some point, the immortal one will have to shed his, you know, his Yeti fur. But until it happens, I'm going to assume that, you know, I'm going to take the age-ism deduction. Out of the equation? Yeah, and I'll be drafting Derrick Henry. You just want that guy that's built same size as, like, a Jalen Brunson.

He's got the pounds on him, but same height. Yes, that's such a funny. We were just laughing at, like, whenever you compare NBA players' height to the biggest guys in the NFL, how comical it is. But, like, Jalen Brunson's the same height as him. If Derrick Henry were on an NBA court, you'd be like, who's that little guy? Yeah, it's crazy. Crazy. The King Yeti. Eight straight season of double-digit rushing touchdowns for Derrick Henry. 27 carries inside the five. So, he is an outlier. I'm with you. I would buy into another year of Derrick Henry. I mean, what are your options if you're Baltimore?

Yeah, I mean, behind Derrick Henry, it's Justice Hill, Rasheem Ali. Boy, Justice Hill's always around. Yes, he is. They drafted a guy that we liked in the draft process in Adam Randall because he's a converted wide receiver to running back. And also, when they say they drafted, the owner drafted and handpicked him. Justice Hill hasn't had a key to the building in five years, but he just waits for somebody to open the front door and he slips in. And yet, he remains the insurance back. He is. And, you know, we've had a lot of conversations, I think, about the wide receiver position and what to expect.

Eklund Doyle, like you said, there's excitement. The schedule, it's good. Zay Flowers has been their dude in the wide receiver room. It's been an offense where we've seen it filter through the tight end position. We've had Mark Andrews have elite years. We've had Isaiah Likely involved in the offense. Zay Flowers is their guy. His target share has gone up each of the three seasons. I am more, I think I'm softening a negative stance on Flowers for a couple of reasons. I don't think that, you know, I'm not going to look at, like, acquisitions of Jacoby Lane, Elijah Surratt as, you know, target challenges to Zay Flowers.

And also, it's the draft cost. I mean, if I can get Zay Flowers in the fifth round. Yeah, welcome aboard. That's just too good of an opportunity. It's just too good. I mean, Lamar Jackson had 9% of his attempts as end zone attempts. That's the highest rate in the entire NFL. He likes Zay Flowers, and I don't think that we should. If you told me he's getting drafted at where he finished last year, I'm out. Yeah, he was, you know, the worst wide receiver seven of all time, but he was still the wide receiver seven. But you're not drafting him like that.

You're drafting him as a, you know, mid wide receiver two. He might be my wide receiver three. Absolutely. In the fifth round, that's fine. And I'm fine drafting a guy there that you know is going to be the leader. You know Zay Flowers is the leader of a good offense. That's all you know. Now, I also feel like we can reliably say we know he's not getting double-digit touchdowns. I don't think that's, I don't think at the end of his career you're going to be like, oh, that was his outlier with 10 touchdowns. I think it'll be like, oh, he had six as his career high.

No, I mean, he's been five, four, five. You're not going to get that. Those end zone targets that you're talking about? Those go to Mandrews. Yeah, those don't go to, there's not a lot of those going to Zay Flowers. But it is, let me see how many targets he had inside the red zone. He had 11 total targets in the red zone. One five zone target, five 10 zone targets, had one touchdown in the red zone last year. But this, what I like about Zay is the talent of the player. I think Zay Flowers is a top-tier wide receiver. He was not the archetype of, you know, the big number one guys out there.

No, he's 5'9", 180. But he, but how shifty he is and his ability to get open are what's exciting about Zay Flowers. He, the proof is already there. Target share going up three straight years at 28% target share last year. That's a, that's an elite target share. And the, I think that, I view the change of offense here as a positive. A lot of the times you're like, ooh, I would like things to stay the same. But the fact that it's changing and Zay Flowers will clearly be the number one option in the passing game. Like, it could get better.

And like you said, Andy. Are you trying to project like a Amon Ross St. Brown situation for him with the tree, the Ben Johnson tree? I mean, it's, it's the, like, that's, that's the easy logical comparison, you know, of saying a smaller guy. Which, Amon Ross is smaller, but Zay Flowers is smaller than Amon Ross. So it's not a one-to-one. It makes sense for that, for that type of a thing to happen where, it's like, right now, the wide receiver two on the Baltimore Ravens is, is and remains Rashad Bateman. For the next four years he's under contract. Who just keeps getting contract extensions with the Baltimore Ravens despite never coming through with anything.

And then, you know, with Lane and Surratt being drafted this year, they're fighting to overtake Bateman. They aren't fighting to take over for Zay Flowers. By the way, Bateman threw his nine healthy games last year on pace for 60 targets and 30 catches. So, a player. Four more years. A player going where Zay Flowers is going, knowing I'm getting, I'm getting 25% at least of the targets. He's really interested. Are either of you taking a shot on one of the rookies? No. Not in redraft. Yeah. I'm probably just going to. The fact that you had to put it that way is part of the problem.

The fact that, it reminds me of when we had a handful of Green Bay Packers rookies that you could have taken a shot on years ago. And it was like, was Jacoby in the third? Jacoby Lane was drafted ahead of Elijah. I don't remember. But not by a lot. I mean, it was like third and fourth round. And here's my problem with it is I feel like you have to win. You got to win the lottery twice. You got to have the rookie have the first year impact in the third or fourth round of the draft on a team that hasn't had anybody outside of Flowers make any impact.

Then you got to get the right one. Yeah. So that is something, look, if you watch training camp. You're right. And one emerges. And one is like, oh my gosh, this guy's amazing. Then maybe there's room. I'm rooting for you, Elijah. I really like Elijah Surratt. Yeah, you do like Surratt a lot. I would say there's two more major conversations on this team. One is Lamar Jackson. Just like, do you get the bounce back fantasy season from Lamar? I am fully in on Lamar. Last year, I'm deleting it. He was injured four different missed games. It was tough after week nine.

And he's Lamar. They're at 11.5 win total. I'm totally fine drafting Lamar. Just for context, he was the number one quarterback in 2024 with 25 points a game. He dropped to 16 a game last year. That's his lowest since his rookie year. He had 349 rushing yards last year. And I know he was hurt, but that is, you know, his yards per attempt were way down. And you might get a value on him. And then the last one is just the conversation around Mark Andrews. The statistical output for Andrews has declined year over year. Not the same player. Certainly a red zone threat at all times.