Starts of the Week + Week 3 Breakdown, Akers Reaction! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/21

Did you mention the Detroit is 31st and pass right over expectation and Atlanta is dead last? This is going to be just, uh, it, it could surprise, but I, I'm expecting a yawn fest. Really? So you take the under there? Yeah, I would. All right, quick break back with another match. The two and oh, division leading. New Orleans Saints take on the Green Bay Packers who just tied. Yeah, they're tied for the league. They're division leading. I'm just saying, when it's a juggerna. They couldn't have done anything else to be ahead of the other two. They could have scored more points. The Packers are one in one after blowing that game against Atlanta last week. Who we, they did. The DK Sportsbook Line Green Bay minus two. The overrunners 42 and a half. When you talk about players that have kind of outperformed the numbers, Jordan Love, we talked about it yesterday on Unsolved Mysteries, 11.6% touchdown rate.

That's insane. I want to say that, like, Lamar was around nine or eight on his super year. Yeah, the league average is about like 4.6%. But credit where credit is due. He's looked very competent through the first two weeks. This game's at home in Lambo. The Saints defense is legit. It's going to be a big test for Jordan Love. It's going to be an even bigger one if he doesn't have Jones and Watson back in this game. Jaden Reed's looked good. rookie wide receiver for the Packers through a couple weeks, 34% target per route run in those two games. That's exciting. I am pretty concerned about a snooze fest in this one. So here's something that's surprising. I like the Green Bay Packers. I like what I've seen this year. I think Jordan Love is going to be legitimate. I believe this team could very, very easily win this division, be a playoff team.

By the end of the season, we are going to be wanting to start Packers all over the place. I don't think I'm starting a single one. I really don't know any Packer this week that I want to start. I don't want to start Dobbs. I don't want to start Jayden Reed off his great game. I'll never start A.J. Dillon. You're telling you're telling me your running back team wouldn't be starting A.J. Dylan. Okay. My running back team isn't a want. That's not a desire. These are just... Who exists? I mean, yes, I would start A.J. Dillon when I currently am trying to start Austin E.K. Dobbins and. I'm with you. I'm not starting to Packard. The Saints defense is very, very good. A.J. Dillon is the opposite of that word. It has been very bad, but you've had 16 opportunities both of week one and week two.

Seems like Aaron Jones. So 16 times 2, 32 yards, I'm guessing. I'm guessing about 32 yards. Right around there. 37 yards. No, that's his average. Oh, that is his average. Okay. Wait, was that a correction to the positive? Yeah, so 74 total yards. He's averaging 2.6 yards per attempt. And he's not catching the ball. I mean, he's got three catches on the year and picked up 25 yards on those. Yeah, I'm saying. And the Saints are good. I'm just, I'm laying out the case for Dylan. I'm not excited about it. But the volume will be there. that touchdown percentage that we talked about for Jordan Love, that will bounce back and running backs will start scoring for the Packers. So that's all you're hoping for is. Are you playing E.J. Dillon? I mean, I'm forced to. Like, Jay, it's like, my team is. Who do you have as an option? Can we talk you out of this? No, I don't have another option. Really? You don't? No. Which league is this, Dynasty? This is League of Record, baby? League of Record? Yeah. You have no choice? Yeah. Screw them running backs. All they do is bring you pain.

You and I should talk trade. I got a couple on my bench you might be interested in. Jamal Williams expected to miss this game. Kendra Miller is a full practice. Tony Jones Jr. To me, this is my opinion. I don't think Kendri Miller can take this backfield over in one week off of an injury. I think Tony Jones, the fact that Derek Carr talked about is past protection, the fact that Miller is a rookie and rookies are generally not trusted in past protection. I am concerned about... Like, look, DFS, you won't take the shot, the Kendra just breaks something off on the first and second down. We don't know for sure that he's playing in this game. We think he is. Yeah, it does appear to be trending that he will be active for this. I mean, he was a full participant in practice on a Wednesday. So you would expect him to have, he'll be active. He will be active this game. Of that, I am.

fairly confident. I'd put it at 90%. I would agree with you, Andy, he's not going to come in and just get everything. You don't have the first time you've ever had a rookie step on the field that's, I believe a third round rookie pick who missed a lot of, if not almost all of training camp. He's not going to come in and just be the dude. He is going to come in and be talented. And so I'm going to try to bet a little bit on the talent winning out, having a couple big plays. you know, the explosive nature of him. And maybe you see if the Packers do struggle against this Saints defense, I could see at the end of the game, him kind of winning out in the four-minute drill and getting a lot of work. When I'm, you know, considering whether or not I start Kendrae Miller, I mean, would you rather start Kendrae Miller or A.J. Dillon is guaranteed far more work. But he's playing against a really tough defense.

And if he doesn't get in a touchdown, I mean, right now he's averaging 5.7 fantasy points game. A.J. Dillon is. And so it's like... Yeah, I'd play Kendrae Miller if I knew who he was playing. Yeah, that's where I lean as well. Just because I want the possibility of being happy today. Maybe. Like if you said, who's going to score 18 plus fantasy points? I don't see how Dylan gets there. I agree. But I also understand. I don't see how Kendry Miller gets there. A 70-yard touchdown run. On the other side of the ball, I want to talk a little bit about what we're seeing in the passing game. Chris Olivae last week, would you say that 11 targets, 6 for 86 was a good game? Yes, very, very good. Not as good as Kenny Pickett or George Pickens. Yes, that is a good game. Last week, that was good enough for wide receiver 35, which is wild. But he's been getting 10 targets, 11 targets. It's been good. He has not scored.

But then you have Michael Thomas. And Michael Thomas through two weeks, kind of getting targeted a lot. He is. It's not really helping you for fantasy. He's a really, really strong flex option if you're in a PPR league. Michael Thomas is going to get his targets be right around 10 fantasy points. And you're just hoping he can follow into the end zone. But, yeah, I mean, he doesn't have a high ceiling anymore. He's not the explosive athlete here. That's Crystal Lave. Derek Carr has one passing touchdown. Yeah, I mean, two games. He's going full Matthew Stafford. Yeah, he's playing. He has 533 passing yards and one passing touchdown. Alave, it's going to happen. And that wasn't his fault. That was Alavi's fault. That's a fair point. Because of the shoe choice. And should have been wearing ice skates. The, my, my biggest concern for, for Tony and Kendrae is Tayson.

where it was nine for 75 on the ground last week. Yeah, it's not a two-headed backfield. It's a three-headed back field. That's a good point. I'm not overly excited to play Tayson Hill in my tight-end slot, but I'm not excited to play any of these running backs. I think that I'm not in on Tony for fantasy purposes. You have to get a touchdown from Tony Jones for you to get anything. Kendrae Miller, I guess, is. If you're in a deep league and you're forced into it, I'm okay with it. But just remember that Taysam Hill will probably make you sad that you started a running back. Taysam Hill or Sam Leporta? Leporta. Because it's either 9 for 75 or 5 for 50 in when I get points for catching the ball. Johnson's been disappointing. He has. Super disappointing. You need to move on if you took a bet there. But that's unfortunate. Taysam Hill just keeps.

He's a wrench everywhere. Yeah. He hurts Derek Carr because all those snaps he comes running off the field. Yeah. So, yeah, I'm not expecting big, big things in this game. No. I mean, you can expect a big thing from Chris Oliva. That's it. Denver is 0 and 2, and they take on the 2 and 0 Miami Dolphins in Miami. The drafting sportsbook line, Miami minus 6 and a half. The overrunners 48 and a half. Gotta like that. That's a high over-under, gives Miami almost 28 points. They've looked really good this year. Maybe the best in the AFC. I think you could argue that. Yeah, I think you could. Denver. Jason, you tweeted something about Russell Wilson. Oh, just how he's awesome. I mean, he's right now on the season, he is ahead of Jalen Hertz in fantasy points. He's ahead of Patrick Mahomes. Josh Allen? Josh Allen. Wait.

Yeah. Because of that one play. Because of a 50-yard Hail Mary. This is why I said, try to trade high on Russell Wilson. So in this matchup, yeah, Russ is. It's a QB-5. Yeah, Russ is. Get out of here. He did. He has five passing touchdowns. Yeah, he does. And they talked this week about simplifying the offense more. Did you see those comments? I did not. And they said the verbiage was too complicated because they were getting late to the line of scrimmage again. But, uh, You know, I saw one of the more frequently dropped players this week has been Somaget P-Rine. I've seen P-Rine being swapped, you know, in waiver wires. Javante Williams, where's your confidence level through two weeks? It's pretty high for me. Yeah, this is a wonderful, wonderful matchup. Miami is dead last and expected points per rush attempt. So if you're ever going to throw Javante in there with confidence, it's got to be this week. It hasn't turned into fantasy points yet. You know, running back 33, running back.

29, but it's the amount of work that he's getting because drafting Giovante, you're always hoping early season. He's going to be ready to go, but he's still returning from the catastrophic injury. The fact that he's getting this level of work in the backfield and he's going to get stronger as the season goes along. Very positive vibes. Yeah, I think the second half is going to be good. In the next two weeks, the matchups say maybe it'll start earlier than expected. So if you want to go and kick the tires on trading for a player who has been pretty disappointing so far, disappointing in what you hoped, but actually he's been pretty much exactly what we expected through two weeks. I would go test the waters. Should be a very good game for the Miami offense. It's the way Vegas sees it as well. They're heavy favorites at home.

I've heard a lot of criticism from the Broncos fans right now about Vance Joseph's defense. And for good reason, they're 23rd against running backs, 25th against tight ends, 19th against quarterbacks, 20th against whiteouts. So they've been a bottom half defense thus far through two weeks. And the opposite can be said about the Miami offense. I mean, two has a good start this week. Most are coming off the big game. You can put them right back out there. And then Tyree Kill, Jalen Waddle, if Waddle is there. Yep, Waddle is in the concussion protocol as of this moment. I haven't seen a Thursday practice report. If he is missing today, my expectation would be that he probably does not play this week. That's not what I'm seeing, Mike. No? No. Wait, the Broncos defense. Oh, I'm sorry. I thought you said the, in my head, I thought you were talking about the dolphins. I apologize. No, that's okay. Mike was over here throwing some shade on my numbers. No, I was just like trying to keep me honest. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's my bad.

Do you mess around with pass catching options on this Russell Wilson train? It's the Dolphins. I mean, Cortland Sutton is the best at leading the team in statistics that are not directly corollary to fantasy numbers, things like routes, targets percentages and stuff like that. But Jerry Judy, are you willing to play him after last week? I don't think so. I mean... No. I want him. I'm going to hold on to him. I'm going to wait and see for this offense to connect. But right now I'm holding on to Judy. I'm holding on to Sutton. I'm holding on to Mims. And I'm hoping that clarity emerges and that one of these guys gets in sync. I'm hopeful that it's Marvin Mims and that he gets on the field, runs more routes. He obviously had a big game last week, but ran what, five or six total routes. Judy or Michael Thomas from the last matchup.

I would take Michael Thomas. I'm more confident in him getting 10 points. Judy or Drake London? Drake London. Great matchup. All right. Durham Smyth. Durham Smyth. Durham Smyth or Durham Smyth? They're all Smyth. Adam Troutman. That's what I'm saying. Don't play the tight ends, I don't think. It's the dolphins. It's the dolphins. The dolphins have been just egregiously bad against tight ends. This is why we targeted Hunter Henry last week. Well, who were their matchups? Let's think about this. Hunter Henry. You had week one. Parham go ham. Yeah. We hoped it was Gerald. So he was touchdowns in both weeks is really what that number was. Both weeks, all the tight ends. But it's not just. It's last year. Last year. Yes. You will have to target Troutman for him to score, though. You will. Troutman is definitely going to be in a.

uh draft king's lineup or two i'm not going to pick him up to start him in my home league as i just don't want to roster i agree with that can we talk about a game with an over under of 54 points oh okay finally the los angeles chargers at oh and two take on the minnesota hikings who are oh and two so you know both of those teams had pretty good years last year and one of them's coming out of this game 0 and 3. Out of the playoffs. And with the low odds of making the playoffs, the D.K. Sportsbook line is Minnesota minus one at home. Which, I mean, look, if the Chargers can lose by one, that's like their dream. I saw Charchy. It's true. That is what's going to happen. Chargers will have a big lead somehow lose by one. I saw Charchy and Minnesota man say that if Minnesota wins this week, they're number one in the division. What? Yeah, I didn't vet it because I trust him as a, you know, as the.

Is that assuming as plugged in as possible? Like the Packers lose? Well, I don't think that's a plugged in thing as much as looking at the standings. Yeah, so it's just that they can be top of the division this week. Let me go ahead and glance at the standings for you. That's probably what the verbiage. Yeah, the Packers, the Packers are. They have a chance to be number one in the division after this week after their terrible start. Yeah, because Packers are 101, Lions are 101. If either of those teams win, obviously, that wouldn't be the case. But. But that is a wild thing to think about. Your own two, you can win a game and go back to first. Well, Kirk Cousins is the number one quarterback for fantasy right now through two weeks. Justin Jefferson has put up over 150 yards for two consecutive weeks. Jordan Addison is bringing an explosiveness to the offense that they did not have. And it's wheels up in this game. I mean, 28 point or 27 and a half for Minnesota implied point total 26 for the Chargers. Both teams have been able to move the ball.

I think the only kind of bittersweet thing about this matchup is if we were missing Echler, because that would only raise the bar for fantasy. Certainly. And at this point, I think you have to assume that you will be missing Echler. That is be prepared to be without him. I will be surprised if he's there. Last week, and I did not realize this until moments ago, but last week, Mike Williams, do you know how many targets he had? I am not aware. I know he had a really great game. You wouldn't be able to guess. Holy crap. Okay, I'm going to 13? He had 13 targets. Missed that. He doesn't. He finishes the quarterback or wide receiver 30. Eight for 83. 13 targets. That's nothing. Talk to Pooka. Talk about Pook Nukum. Pook Nukum. Yes. Yes, baby. Pook Nukum. Shout out to the 90s kids. Yeah, the 90s kids who played Duke Nukam. Pooke Nukam. I love it.

20 targets. 13 targets. He's never had that few in his career. Yeah. That's a fact. I did not know that Mike Williams had that many targets last week. That is very interesting. If Mike Williams says A for 83, you're not expecting that he had 13 targets. No, and it's just maybe the lack of Echler really impacted both those guys because Keenan Allen was dominant. He's been dominant for a while now. What are we doing with Josh Kelly this week? You still play him. Yeah, this is. Do you play him over Madison? I would play him over Madison, assuming Echler is gone, I'd play him over Madison because of the depth chart. It was, he had 79% of the snaps. His opportunities actually went down from week one, from 17 to 14. And maybe it's the passing game. I guess week one, he only had one target, didn't catch it. Week two, he had one target, didn't catch it. So perhaps they don't prefer Joshua Kelly in that role for the offense, but he's going to get a,

He'll get a bunch of kids. We just talked about Jerome Ford with the matchup against the Titans, how difficult, how bad. You pick them up off of waivers and you go, man, this sucks. Every time we pick someone up, they're playing a good matchup. That was last week. That was the Tennessee Titans. That's what Joshua Kelly had to play against. Playing against the Minnesota Vikings, I think he'll be fine. Would you play Josh Keller, Jerome Ford? Josh Kelly. I would be in the Josh Kelly camp as well. That's very close. These are two backups that are been thrust into prominent roles. I'm going to take the one in a better matchup. The backup matchup. The backup matchup. T.J. Hawkinson, you play him. He's been great. Yep. It's tough to have confidence in Gerald Everett. He looked good last week. I wish he'd get more targets, but he doesn't. He's splitting a lot with Parham right now.

Yeah, you had three targets in each of the last two weeks. No, you've got to bail out. And the snaps dropped significantly. Well, that's disappointing. 41% of snaps. Yeah, please know. You want to talk about disappointing. Quentin Johnston, first round rookie wide receiver who was really going to help elevate Herbert has been very disappointing. He started week one at 27% of the snaps. Week two went down. to 15% of the snaps. I think it was only up to 27 because Mike Williams missed a portion of the game. I think he was getting a concussion check. So he was in there for that. He should not be rostered right now in redraft leagues. It's going to take an injury ahead of him right now. Let's put it to the test, though, because the number one names that are kind of out there that people are dancing around with is stuff like Robert Woods.

You'd rather have Robert Woods on your roster than Quentin Johnson? If I need someone for my roster for my roster, but if I'm looking at my starting roster and it's I'm feeling pretty strong about it, then Johnson can be on your bench. It's disappointing that obviously Josh Palmer's much higher in the depth chart. He's playing 50, 60% of snaps. Mm-hmm. So, yeah, I think unless it's a luxury edition, you'd probably move it on. It's what we saw from preseason on when they were resting Joshua Palmer, not playing him in the preseason while Quentin Johnson was getting the work. He is clearly behind him. Patriots 0 and 2 taking on the Jets in New England. Just take the last game and inverse the optimism. This game is one of the- How do these teams score? From what I understand, some of the prison system will be airing this game.

for some of their worst. Yeah, it's punishment for some of their worst inmates. The Draft King's Sportsbook line is New England. New England minus two and a half, but the overrunner is 37 points. That puts New England winning the game like 1917. No way they score that much. You know who the best two plays in this game is? I sure do. And they're great plays. Defense. The Jets defense and the Patriots defense. Like genuinely, when I said no way they score 19 or 17 points. Immediately my brain went, oh, sure they could. Defensive scores will happen in this game. And what's been crazy about the Mac Jones situation is that, and by the way, Zach Wilson lowest QB rating in the NFL, surprise, surprise. What? Matt Jones has thrown the ball a ton, but Mac Jones is not completing passes down the field. He's completed like one of 11 throws over 20 yards and they've been ugly. Watching every pass. It's like he goes, there's a matchup I like. I'm just going to launch it.

And see what happens. It's not, it's never a situation where he is, I don't know. You remember when he's yelling at Patricia about throwing down field? Maybe Patricia knew what that meant. I don't, I can't figure out if it's Mac being really bad, which it might be. Or if it is the fact that his wide receivers have no separation. He doesn't have one that gets separation. No, Parker's historically just a contested catch guy. Yeah, Boren can separate. A little. Yeah. But the primary wide receiver is Devante Parker, and he's a 50-50 guy. If you had to start one player from both teams, it's going to be Ramandre. Yeah. And it's probably, it's probably going to be Brees Hall. But look, let's be honest here. What happened last week was terrifying for Brees Hall managers and making decisions on starting him. If four carries is in the range of outcomes for Brees Hall, and those carries are very unlikely to be.

on the right side of the 50 based on Zach Wilson. It's concerning. I mean, you're hoping the Jets defense gives them a short field and he can go into the end zone. But look, they're probably going to correct the four-carry situation. The problem is it's going to be against the Patriots defense, who if I were the Patriots and Bill Belichick's a smart human being, he's going to stop Breece Hall. That's going to be one of their goals. Do you want to play Breece Hall or? I don't want to play this game. or Tyler Algier against Detroit. Algier in the matchup with the high over under. Breeze Hall or Damian Pierce. I won't make you answer, Jason. Thank you. Breece Hall or Damian Pierce, Andy. Damian Pierce, that's Houston Jacksonville? Yes. Houston, and they deleted their offensive line, right? They just don't even put one out there. Correct. I mean, I guess I go, I guess I go Breach Hall from what I saw in the first week because he did that damage with Zach Wilson in that game too.

But yeah, it's not exciting. Last one, Breece Hall or Najee? Well, you know my policy then. Okay, Jason, you have to answer this then. That one, that one. My policy, by the way, is that I will never play Najee Harris. Naji's playing against the Raiders. He is. He's getting volume. I have to answer this one. Yes, because he has a policy. I can't, I can't violate the terms of the policy. If these two guys were on my roster, I think I. put in Brees Hall. Is Garrett Wilson in the category of you just play him, close your eyes, turn away, you know, make a sandwich, don't watch the game. No, I don't think he is. I don't think he is this week. You know, you talk about Bill Belichick, he usually takes away your number one option. Now, maybe he says, well, the number one option is a running game. We want Zach Wilson to throw. And I can see Garrett Wilson having a good game. But you could also make the argument that he's just going to say, let's double Garrett Wilson. And they will not be able to move the ball.

He is to me someone where, you know, if you're telling me, like you could have the world where you've got Jordan Addison. Mike, you have Jordan Addison. I do. And Garrett Wilson. I would start Jordan Addison over Garrett Wilson. In that high over under, there are certain matchups I would be willing to look at consider, not just auto start, auto lock them in. Now, the talent says you can start them any week. But if you have better matchups, then just you've got to, you got to bite the bullet and make the best start. Be courageous. Yeah. Hunter Henry and Auto Start right now? Yes, he is. Even against the Jets? Yeah, even against the Jets. They haven't been outstanding against, obviously their great defense. But, I mean, it's the tight-in position. I think they gave up the Fergie touchdown last week. That probably hurt their numbers. Sure. Buffalo's one-on-one and they take on the Washington commanders in Washington. Buffalo minus six and a half on the road. Overrunners 43 and a half, which that's not a high number, but Buffalo's got 25 implied points.

This is not to me a good matchup for Sam Hal and this passing offense because Hal has been pressured at the highest percentage of anybody. He's holding on to the ball way too long too. Yeah, he is. He's holding on to the football and Buffalo is going to bring the pressure and they're going to do it strategically and they're going to put him into positions where he's uncomfortable and I think that's reflected in the game line from Draft Kings where you have a six and a half point road favorite here despite the fact that Washington's 2-0. So to me, Vegas says, hey, we know that this 2-0 is a product of your matchup, not a product of your play right now. Right. John Dodson's been disappointing. For some reason, his average depth of target is sitting at 9 instead of 15 from a year ago. What are we doing here? You can... What are we doing, Washington? You can take a much less athletic, less important player and give him an 8 out of 9. Don't take a talent like John Dodson and keep him close to the line of scrimmage.

instead of letting him separate down the field. So this is me talking to Eric. Sure. You can talk to Ron too. Yeah, Ron. You try to talk to Ron and you know what happens? He gets into this whole altitude discussion with you. Big altitude. He starts talking to you about all these studies he's read. And he won. I know. No, he won the game because the Broncos are terrible. Can I ask a question to you, Andy, that has nothing to do with Mike? Sure. Preferred. Who has a higher chance at scoring a touchdown this week? A.J. Dylan or Latavius Murray? Latavius Murray. There's no. You said you had no one on your roster other than AJ Dylan. I am not playing Latavius Murray over Dylan. You do have Christian McCaffrey. I would keep him in the roster. Do we have permission to?

enjoy ourselves if Murray outperforms Dylan. Oh, absolutely. Yes, absolutely. Yeah, thank you, Mike. We'll have a good time. Having a good time. Yeah, and of course, this is all of, if Aaron Jones is active, Latavius Murray might find his way into my lineup. Well, Josh Allen's in your lineup. Excellent. James Cook has been great. Yep. So I'll put him in your lineup. The dump-offs, they help a lot. Stefan Diggs, yes. Jason mentioned Gabe Davis, hungry for more. He is always a dart throw that might land on the bullseye. Well said. Would you play him over Dotson, Mike, Gabe Davis? Oh, yeah, I would this week. Jason took a moment to dunk on Dalton Kincaid. I do think the breakout is still coming. Six targets last week. I really do. Five receptions last week. 2024 is going to be a...