Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - 10 Things to Remember for 2016, News, Mailbag

So what I'm saying is even though he finished 11th for half the season, he was not a huge, tremendous asset to your team. So it's good to take the final rankings into account, but you need to look deeper at the numbers. How did that guy perform week in and week out? Was he getting a huge amount of his production from just two to three weeks? Overall, how did they perform? So don't just fall in love.

with that final ranking. All right. I like it. Let me throw mine in here and then we'll let you finish it out, Mike, with your last one because I love the last one. Look, we have Remember the Lions. I'm going to throw out another one here. Remember the Patriots. All right. Everybody has a reason to, you know, not like the Patriots unless you're Patriots fan. Maybe it's spite. Maybe it is jealousy. Maybe it is age.

Maybe it is injury-prone nature of Mr. Grankowski or Lewis or Edelman. But look, when push comes to shove until Tom Brady is retired and in a booth somewhere and Bill Belichick is sailing away on his yacht, they're going to be a force for fantasy football that should not be underestimated.

Tom Brady last year ended the year number two, I believe. You had the top tight end. You had Edelman, who was the number five wide receiver until he was injured. You had Dionne Lewis, who was the number seven in PPR leagues until he was injured. And look, despite all those injuries, they finished fifth in passing yards. And what does this mean for this year? Well, I'll tell you right now, breaking news today was that Danny Amandola had a couple of different surgeries, and there's a likelihood he will not be ready for week one. Amidola? Yeah, Amidola. So...

Chris Hogan, coming into the equation now, no Lafell. You have Edelman returning from an injury. Does Hogan make an impact? The yards will go someplace. You know, guys like James White, who came in after injury last year, were fantasy relevant players, even to the point of who am I thinking of, the other backfield mate that they had, Bolden, Brandon Bolden at times. The thing that I want everyone to remember about the Patriots is that the weapons around Brady, the key and the cog is Brady, right?

And yes, he might get suspended for the beginning of the year. We need to remember that, too. But that could push down value of Patriot players. It could push down value. You know, Martellus Bennett could come onto the scene if Gronk was hurt again. Just don't be afraid of using the weapons in New England. I think we saw last year that as long as Brady's active, they're a force. So what is the final remember? All right, the final remember. We're going to have a quick chat here about busting.

Now, I believe it was last week we talked about, we were going through the wide receivers, and there's perception is building that wide receivers are far safer than running backs. And I finally compiled all the data from last year to look at it. And as we expected, wide receivers were a lot safer last year. Here's my bust parameters. If you were taken as a top 12 guy,

and you did not finish in the top 24, I considered you a bust. Okay. So of wide receivers, in the top 12, there were three busts. Des Bryant, Randall Cobb, and Alshon Jeffrey. Running backs was brutal this year, and especially because of it was the top guys who busted out. There were six busts in the top 12. All right? So 50%. Now that you can go back to last year.

or 2014, I should say, three buss for wide receiver, only three buss for running back. You go back to 2013, four busts for wide receivers, and six for running backs. 2012, four for each. So this idea. And how many running backs were this past year? Six. Okay, so this year seems to be more the anomaly? Yeah, well, six, I mean, it's happened before, and the worst part about this year,

is when you look at the final top 15, there was only four of those guys taken in the top 12, which is by far the lowest number in the four years I'm talking about. But to say that overall, that there's this huge discrepancy of running backs, bus, wide receivers just don't, they're safer. I don't think, to my, it seems like, in the research that I have done,

That's just not true to say that it heavily skews to wide receivers. But it says last year it did. Yes, last year did. And people, like we said with the rookie wide receivers, 2014 was, rookies were unbelievable. ADPs for rookies last year went through the roof. So running backs are going to fall. Running backs will become a value pick. You're going to get stud running backs in the top of the second where that's not something that used to happen.

Yeah, yeah. I mean, all offseason last year before this week or this year where, you know, the running backs busted out a little bit more. The refrain was just the value that you get because there's position scarcity at the running back position. There is the issue of that position being depleted quicker than wide receivers. And so lots of things to consider for drafters this season. Any final thoughts before we get into the mailbag? Jay.

just excited to get to the mailbag because we have the best listeners. Mailbag. Mailbag. We do have the best listeners. We get a lot of questions and we do our very best on Twitter on the show and everywhere else that we're connected to answer as many as we can, especially on Jointhefoot.com. We answer a lot on there as well. If you want to ask a question, submit a question, you can do so on the website, the fantasy footballers.com.

click the submit a question button, or you can dial our voicemail hotline 302-464-TFFB, and we're going to start off today's mailbag segment with a voicemail question. I promise we will. Hey, fellas, how's it going? I was wondering how you guys felt about this. So, you know, as I'm doing my drafts, as you guys, I would suggest it. I've been, you know, paying attention in, like, you know, different positions and who's going where.

and who's ranked where as far as every single position. And it just seems like to me that above, even waiting on quarterbacks, that tight-in is something like you should supremely wait for. I remember the show where you guys were going through the difference in each tight-in and what they had, and all of them seem like pretty similar. If Jordan Reed is presumed the number two tight-in to go off of the board, I can't take that risk and draft Jordan Reed past...

I don't know, maybe the fourth or fifth round, because it's just too risky. As good as he was, he's still very, very injury pro, and I wouldn't take the wrist drafted him in the second or third round. So I was wondering, do you think that tight-in is something you should wait on, or is that a position that you can have a huge positional advantage over with Jordan Reed, Greg Olson, I don't know, maybe Kobe Slinger and Tyler Iferring there. Your thoughts? Thank you.

It's a good question because I think he's right that if you hit on tight end, having that positional advantage is huge. Yeah. But what does it mean to hit on tight end? Yeah, you didn't hit on Jordan Reed last year taking him early. You hit on him super late or on the waivers. Same with Barnage. Same with all those guys. I think that hitting on one of the top tight ends, the absolute studs, honest to goodness, and I know we don't want to ever admit this because we're the professionals. We know everything.

I think that you're going to hit on the top end next year, mostly by luck. You're just going to happen to have grabbed the guy. There's reasons I can give you five guys that I think are going to be able to do that. Let's call that educated luck. Sure, sure. By hypothesis. You're going to take your educated. Chloriform. We're just throwing out science work. Beaker. Well, my point is it's a matter of what it comes.

costs you in the draft to take that risk. And so I agree. I mean, I'm not drafting Jordan Reed in the second round or even the third round, not because he's not worth the value if he hits, but because I have to give up a really high quality running back or wide receiver prospect there that I will not be able to get in the seventh round. Whereas in the seventh round, I'll be able to take a guy, I'll be able to take Kobe Fleener who could be that guy in the seventh round right now.

Yeah, it's a good point. I think I'm glad you spoke to Jordan Reed specifically because that's going to be a hard decision for a lot of people. Because let's be honest, if he is what he was in the year, it's well worth the pick. And everybody who did it will be happy and everybody who didn't will be mad and sad. But that is the dichotomy of that kind of a pick, a guy who doesn't have a track record of extensive time being that level. And that's the chance you take. That's what you, you know, you talk about educated luck.

You know, the people that do it are going to feel really smart and the people that don't are going to feel really dumb. And there's no guarantees. One note here. So I was looking up the ADP of the tight ends this year. And I didn't realize. So Rob Garnkowski, this is completely different. This is off topic. Rob Gronkowski and the Patriots have a week four buy. Do you realize that that means that really if the suspension holds for Brady?

That's actually going to be five weeks into your fantasy season before you get Tom Brady back for those Patriots. So it's just another thing to consider. And really that's six weeks because he doesn't start playing until the six week of the NFL season, right? Because you'd miss three, you'd have the buy, you'd miss the fourth game. So, you know, the fourth game, fifth week. So you're talking about the way it's going to feel is...

You're losing Brady for half of the fantasy season. Yep. Before the fantasy playoffs, you're about halfway into the season. That is brutal. Just like I said, forget the Patriots. Good episode to find that on. And just a, what I'll throw in here to the tight end discussion is I'm looking at tight end scoring from weeks 10 through 17 because as we know, there's always the tale of two halves. And from weeks 10 through 17.

The list of tied-end ones is just littered with guys who were either not drafted or drafted extremely late. Watson Gates, Rogers, Will Ty, Julius Thomas, Zach Miller, Barnage, Ertz, Walker, and Reed. So the only guys in there who you expected to be there, Greg Olson and Rob Grancowski. Yeah.

Yeah, so let's move on here. Sean in Boston. Hey guys, love the show and everything you do for fantasy football fanatics. He's in a keeper league and he has two players he's considering keeping. Doug Martin, which would cost him a fifth round pick and Tyler Eifert, which would cost him an 11th round pick. He's leaning towards Martin, but the loss of Sunoo makes me think Eifert might see increased targets. I believe Jason just said Cincinnati lost 150 targets last year. What are your thoughts on this decision for Mr. Sean in Boston, Mike? Oof.

uh you're talking a starting running back who was top five last year in the fifth tremendous value versus ifert who will he'll lock up your tight end spot for a free pick there i would lean towards dog martin i'm looking at the format this is a two running back two flex league so i think it's pretty important here to have your stud running back and then it like us like we just rattled off yeah just

Just dig the wire, be vigilant in finding who's hot, who's got the good matchups. And I think you'd be better off going on. Or draft Antonio Gates in the actual 11th of your league. Who will probably finish as good as Iper. Yeah. All right. You agree with that, Mike.

I mean, Jason. Yes, I do. Jason. All right. Anthony and Tampa, who should I keep in the eighth round? Hey, Eifford's back. Tyler Eifford, Michael Floyd, or Danny Woodhead, a standard league. Who's the eighth round pick there? For me, it's Michael Floyd. For me, it's Michael Floyd as well. For me, it is Michael Floyd. I'm going to take that upside. We need to come up with. Is this the sound of agreeing? Key!

That might get old. All right, let's go to Jimmy in Anaheim, California. Hey, guys, love the show, and looking to bounce back after finishing in second in all my leagues. Oh, wow. You were so close. I was wondering if you guys could make, or show me where to go, tiers for your rankings. I think tears is the best way to go, and I want to see yours. I agree.

Almost Foot Clan title. Jason, I know you can speak to this. Yeah, tiers are the best way to draft. That is something that is very difficult to do. Consensus-wise takes us a lot of time around the table. We are doing that this year. It is a part of our draft kit on Ultimate DraftKit. We basically have our, on there, we put up all of our rankings on the website. Those are free. The premium rankings that we have are, they will show you the exact projected point total along with the ranking and a video breakdown of.