Early RB Rankings: Top 10 Countdown, Dream Draft Picks - Fantasy Football Podcast for 4/18

We're back with another early rankings episode. We are counting it down our top 10 early running back rankings. Don't miss a minute. Way in in the comments and subscribe below. To the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Oh, welcome in Thursday episode of the fantasy footballers. Jason Moore is here. Hello.

Mike Wright also came to work today. I thought we were doing like an accent thing. That's an accent? Yeah. Oh, was there, oh, was it like an allo? Yeah, I was going on Cockney. It sounded like an obnoxious accent. Hey, I bet. I'm Andy Holloway. Team. Top ten running backs on the show today. Early rankings. We just counted it down from 20 to 11 on the Tuesday show, excited to get into the top 10. And, you know, the draft is now one week away. Very soon. One week. So that should be really, really fun, especially if you join us on draft night. We'll be live on NFL Plus at the end of round one. So you'll want to catch that a live fantasy reaction special Thursday, April 25th. So please stop by.

It will be a good time. Yeah. How are you doing today, Jay? I'm doing great. I'm very excited for this week leading up to the draft. There's always such crazy news that ends up coming out. All sorts of nonsensical things leaked about players. Oh, this team is totally into this guy now. This is the week to plug them ears. Okay? Plug your ears is just a bunch of smoke and nonsense. Until the day before, the day before the draft, then all of a sudden some real stuff sometimes gets leaked out. It's tough. I mean, the stuff I don't like is definitely nonsense. Right. The stuff that I do like, it's probably true. I like how every year we can get to the draft and go, wait a minute. They didn't do anything. They lied again? We're making that up. We are doing draft predictions next week. Super fun. So that will be, I know you're really excited to get a bunch of them wrong again. Like, we all will.

Well, we usually get most of them wrong. And by we, I mean the entire planet. Every mock draft or everyone out there, you see like the best mock drafts of all time. The majority is still wrong. But I think we do a pretty good job. The Ultimate Draft Kit available right now. It will be updated for the third time following the NFL draft. And so Dynasty Leagues with the UDK plus you want to check that out. Ultimate DraftKit.com. We do have an announcement. And dare I say, this is an opportunity to remind you why you should listen to all the episodes. Yeah? Because sometimes we say stuff that we only say once. This is one of those moments. And we don't, we don't even tweet it. Nope. We don't even, we don't email. We don't tweet. We don't talk about it ever again. Now before or not after. We are here for our fans. And.

We know that you listening right now are our fans. And so we are seeking help. We are looking for new writers. We do this once a year where we bring in a couple more people to the writing team. We have a great group here. We were just on a big Zoom call. It's big family last night. It is an awesome time writing together. We are looking for the best and the brightest. And if that is you, you can go to footclanhelp.com. We are only saying this once. You can apply there. Hopefully you have some writing samples. Some writing samples. Here it says, for Kyle's sanity, please submit a writing sample. To let us know you can write. I would highly recommend you do that. It is the most important part of the writing job. Yeah. The writing.

We're looking for good peoples with great football knowledge. Probably around four new writers. Yeah, I mean, it really depends on who applies. You know, if five great ones apply, then we'll have five. If one great one applies, sorry, we got one. So this is the only mention of it. Footclanhelp.com. We'll be going through all the applications to join the writing staff, and that will be fun. It's always an exciting time to meet some new people and add them to the team. Going through the submissions is one of the most fun worst times that you'll ever have. It is like. Because you with the reading and the words. Right. You're not. Yeah. Yeah. I feel seen. Yeah. I feel seen. Yeah. Yeah. It's just there's. Send Jason a video of you reading your article. Yes. Read me your work. Oh, no. Somebody's going to do that now. Oh, my bad. I'm not the one always going. I check a couple layers left.

All right, quick question of the day. What is one dream draft pick you want to happen during the NFL draft? Anything you want for whatever reason you want. So just a dream situation. Mine's the layup. You want me to go first? Sure. All of ours is yours, Mike. But it's selfish. And yet it's for everyone. It's the selfish thing, but it's the right thing. Sometimes it's okay to be selfish. It is okay. It is absolutely Marvin Harrison Jr. to the Arizona Cardinals. Marvin is going to go early in the draft. There aren't very many teams, unless a team moves up and shocks us, but there are not many situations where there's a franchise quarterback. He can be the number one. It can be a great offense.

And it just works out for everybody. It works out for Cardinal fans. It works out for fantasy football fans. It works out for the people who have the 101 in rookie drafts in single quarterback where you don't have the situation that the Patriots take him. And then the Cardinals take Malik neighbors and you go, oh no, it's another Clyde versus Johnny Taylor situation. So let's just let this happen. Let us have this. Just play it by the go chalk. The way that C.J. Stroud just spoke from the podium yesterday about Marvin Harrison. I don't know if you guys saw this. I did not. Yeah, I did watch it. He basically just said at the end, he's like, the teams at the top, just be smart. Don't be dumb. Don't be dumb. Like, he's clearly the best wide receiver. You know, so yeah, Cardinals fans as we three are want him, but it makes sense. I mean.

They don't have a wide receiver. Right. Michael Wilson is their current wide receiver one. That's, that's insane. And if you caught my song on socials, I'm going to save so much money. So much money, because I will never have a need for pants. Never go back to that pants store again. They will never go. If your hometown team selects Marvin Harrison, your pants will fly off and you'll never need to wear them again. Exactly. All right. So outside of our hometown teams, the next most important thing, are our personal takes. You know what mine would be. You know what it is. I'm going to write down what I think it is. There's no way you don't write it down because it's like a weird. Which team? It's a weird like stupid competitive like. Which is it bills? Win or lose situation. And I didn't even want to die on Adonai Mitchell Hill. But it's like Adonai Mitchell to the bills. And you will be dying. Yeah. Unless this happens. I want to be so.

So upset of AD goes to the bills. Because Jason and I have slightly differing viewpoints on Adonai Mitchell's, I guess, outlook. Yeah, prospects in the NFL. It's become a fun draft day situation. And I did say to you yesterday when we were talking about it further, because I know you watched more film on him and then you talked about his profile and there's, you know, there's lots of reasons on both sides. That's why players go ahead of other players for reasons. But. I was like, you know how much the landing spot is going to define this so significantly, as well as not just what round, but the team. And so it's fun to have the debates. I really like Adonai Mitchell. I think he profiles to be a really impactful NFL wide receiver. I won't think that if he goes to Carolina. I will think that if he goes to Buffalo. So if it backs you into loving him on accident, that's funny to me.

So that's what I'm rooting for. No, I get that. And you can add the Chiefs. I mean, it could be the Bills or the Chiefs. Well, mine is Troy Franklin, a player that I think is a very, very talented. Turtle. I think he's very talented. So I want the same thing for him. I want him to go a quality landing spot. So I've got Troy Franklin to the Chiefs. I saw that mocked like a month ago and got very excited. Let's have that happen. All right. Into the news we go. News and notes from around the league. This is being recorded slightly before you listen to it on Thursday. So if some news that is super obvious is missed, that's why I'm telling you what we know right now, including Cortland Sutton, not showing up to voluntary workouts. He wants a new contract. I saw a stat he has 10 starting quarterbacks in seven years. That's not a way to get a rapport going. Like sometimes you just draw the short straw as a wide receiver. I think McLaren's drawn that. I think for most of DJ Moore's career, that was the case.

For Colin Sutton, it certainly has been. And like the two outcomes for Sutton right now are if he goes back to, you know, if he's happy in Denver and plays this year, it's like rookie quarterback or Jarrett Stedham. So congrats. Congrats on probably two more quarterbacks this year. So he's like, please pay me now. My stats will be awful at the end of the year. Yeah. So and last year he was 59 for 770, but he had 10 touchdowns with Russell. who has always had a knack for getting the ball into the end zone. So he's a scary pick without really knowing who the quarterback is. Also, the Broncos don't have like, isn't Russell Wilson the third highest cap hit on the team or something like that? No, Russell's the biggest, but Sutton's the third highest right now. Yeah. So, I mean, you might see something restructured with him. It doesn't even make sense. He's under contract for two more years of like. It's his guarantee. He only has two million more guaranteed.

Yeah, I don't see them changing this. If you look at their roster and who's on their roster long term, this is a team that's going to in two years. It will be 100% Sean Payton's team from the ground up. There won't be a single holdover. So I don't, I don't see any long-term deal coming for Sutton, which the last time I said that Cortland Sutton was not going to get a long-term deal. Yeah. While I said that news broke up his new contract. The news that's very possible. Will you check and see if Cortland Sutton just signed an extension? We'll take a look. There is not a, there's a non-zero chance between recording and when this comes out. Oh, it's happening. It's going to be great. You just earned him so much money. Yeah. Dolphins are planning to pick up the fifth year for Waddle. Jalen Waddle. Makes sense. He's been a very, very good wide receiver despite.

Our disappointment in his fantasy production versus ADP last year has been great on the NFL field. And disappointment about like availability play to play. Sure. That does factor into how I think about Jalen Wano is like fragile. Even though he doesn't miss a lot of games, he somehow misses a lot of plays. He still impacts the majority of games though. And I think that's that's what matters to the dolphins. All right. That is all I have for news right now. And like I said, if we miss anything. As of this recording, we'll pick it up on the next episode of the show. Let's jump in. Running bags. All right. Yesterday we talked about, or sorry, on Tuesday, we talked about the 20 through 11 as we count down the top 10 running backs in our early rankings. This is not the same rankings you'll see in the UDK when it releases on June 1st. Those rankings factoring in all of the rookies. They are all statted top to bottom, every team, every player, every stat.

And sometimes we're even surprised by our own, you know, the stats versus our gut. This is more like, hey, who would we take right now? Who do we think profiles to be the top 10 running backs? It's our consensus ranking, so we don't have perfect agreement. It's just the average. And so we talked about a particular stat on the wide receiver episode. And I believe the number was about 3.7 top 10 wide receivers. per year repeat as top 10 options. So year to year, there's turnover. Over the last 10 years, 2.9 running backs repeat as top 10 running backs from the previous years. The most that has ever happened was five, and that was in 2020. So there were people that drafted running backs and were happier that year. But 2.9 is the average. Injuries are always a factor in that number.

So, you know, you can't really, you don't go into the draft going like, man, I hope I can guess which four of these top 10 have a random catastrophic injury. And it makes sense that they're drafted where they're drafted. It's just a reality that you don't, you don't build your team. And I think I've learned this so much over the last 10 years of this show is like, you don't build your team and just like, your top three picks you're like all right I'm set you know you have to have that mentality that you just build depth and strength for your roster top to bottom pick one through your last pick and realize that some things are going to happen yeah that's it it kind of like this is why at the top of the draft you have such a not a battle but you know whatever a disagreement on how do I build my team because the number for the wide receivers repeating that's that's a way stronger probability

That one of the top ten of last year is going to repeat. We discussed that number as a bad thing. Right. We discussed it as like, look how few are you. Slightly better number. I mean, it's one more player. Yeah, but in the game, 30% more. In the game of probability, it's, it's a, it's an advantage. But if you hit on the running back, that math is right. I'm going to let this. I. One of the ways I trust Jason is with this weird math that I can't do. I can't, I got to like think about it. Yeah. If three running backs repeat, right, 2.9, one more would be 30% of three. You, yeah, you tell. Whatever you tell. Whatever you say, man. All right. It's also one more. Point of 10. Right, but probability. Yeah. Point being. Yep. But if you hit on the running back. More valuable. And then they repeat. Yeah, it provides way more value to your team.

But the number is lower. So do you go at the wide receiver? That is just, to me, like, that kind of encapsulates a lot of the argument of do I go wide receiver early or do I go running back early? You can get into the psychology, too, of just like the experience you had last year is not the one you want to have this year if it went bad. So sometimes people, you know, they don't just go with the numbers. They go with the emotions. Yeah. And like if I've missed on running backs for two years in a row, maybe I'm making a pivot.

to wide receiver because I saw that guy that made the wide receiver pick and it worked out well for him or her. So I still think finding a running back is the greatest advantage in fantasy football if you hit on one early. But that doesn't mean that I am locked in. We want to stay water. We want to see how the draft flows. And let's jump into the top 10. Number 10, Isaiah Pacheco, 25 years old, Jason and Mike. You both have them at 10. I remember going through the early rankings when we were putting our numbers in there. I was a little surprised you were both as bullish.

as you were. I have him at 13, outside the top 12. But all of us have him currently ranked higher than his best ball ADP. It's true, which is 14. So a lot of opportunities, solid workload. It all worked itself out last year, 4.6 a carry runs like he is absolutely. Wait, we probably have his player drop here. Yeah. I mean, just furious at the ground. He hates nothing more in his life than. turf and grass he hates it he is punish it so angry with that ground the way that he runs it is it is uh stomp stop stop man could you imagine being like a gardener watching this man run or someone that cares for this lawn that i mean you've got to yeah really have a problem with pacheco unless he's aerating oh very nice yeah have like the big cleats on he's just like hey

It's his training regimen. Is there like, hey, Pacheco, get on the field. We just receded. Put on the super cleats. Turn that thing up. He's vicious. That's a good plan. But what happened with the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl two years in a row now has shifted them to a defensive team to a team that, look, they lost Tyreek a couple years ago. Travis Kelsey is getting older. We saw Travis Kelsey purposely. used less in the games through the second half of the year to save him. He might not like it, but it was brilliant. It was smart. It is good football. It's the reason why in the NBA people are resting stars nowadays that they didn't use to. It's like, you know what matters is winning the championship at the end of the year and having our players fresh. Pacheco is becoming like.

I mean, you'll never be able to say he's the center of this offense, right? You have Patrick Mahomes. But he really is becoming part of their identity. And it really happened more and more as the season went on through the playoffs. He's their dude. I would be really surprised if next week they do something to usurp this. And so, yeah, I've got them in my top 10, which obviously if we talk about how few players repeat year after year, well, that means that the majority of players are. you know, new this year to that top 10. Pacheco wasn't there. I've got him inside right now. Got 18 opportunities a game. 84 total yards per game. This is what he was averaging. That's nice. And then the seventh, he's seventh among all running backs and red zone touches. That's where we want. We'd love for him to get more, or if you have Pacheco, you'd love for him to get more carries inside the five. If you have Mahomes, you want them to never run the ball ever.

They also did what many teams have done this offseason and bring back a not very good player to be the backup. Like they did Chase Edmonds in Tampa, AJ Dylan and Green Bay. They brought back Clyde in a one-year deal. Number nine, Travis E.TN. He is, his best ball ADP is RB 11. He's 25 years old. I haven't met eight. Jason at nine, Mike at 11. He was the RB3 last year. I don't think it's necessary to get too far in the weeds and like. try to criticize that performance. I know the consistency wasn't there, but he also won you so many weeks on his own. It showed his capability. The team said before last season they wanted to reduce his workload, they didn't do it. They couldn't do it. They said the same thing this year. I don't believe they will, and I believe he is so talented. So to me, he's one of the players very likely to end up on my rosters because of where I have him ranked compared to, you know, if he's two or three running backs later,

I'd rather have him over Pacheco. You guys have him not very far off either. So I think we all have a great deal of confidence that ETN is going to be the workhorse for Jacksonville. I thought, like when I was ranking ETN, I knew I would have him lower than most people. I was kind of surprised to find out that his best ball ADP is right where I have him. So, I mean, it's nice that at least my overarching thoughts on ETN are not. far off from the way that the confidence that people have. But for me, I mean, the second half was, it was brutal. It was brutal. It was a 17-game pace of 800 rushing yards. The reception's very nice. But it just in the fantasy playoffs, like if you had ETN,

We were just, Jay, we were just talking about dynasty running backs and you were flexing on us that you have these guys. And it's like, well, why didn't you win the championship? You're like, well, in the playoffs, these three guys really, really hurt people. And I'm not just saying like, oh, these two really terrible weeks at the worst possible time. That happens. But just the second half, the second half of the season being not great mixed with, I guess. It comes down to what Andy's talking about. Can they find a player to spell Travis ETN? Because the team has repeatedly said over and over, that's what they want to do. But right now, they probably don't have that ability. He caught 58 passes. Yeah, that's delightful. You know, and he's very capable in that area. So to me, he has a nice baseline. Great touchdown upside. We saw it multiple times last year when he went on runs of three straight games, two touchdowns a game.

I have a great deal of confidence because there's not a lot of young, talented, workhorse backs that catch the ball. He's in that category. Yeah, and he plays for not a bad offense. Even if this is not an elite offense, there'll be plenty of scoring opportunities. That's really where his fantasy points came. But 73 targets on the course of a season. When you take out Calvin Ridley and replace him with Gabe Davis, you expect his involvement will stay there. The running back core projects to stay the same this offseason and projects to be poopy behind him. I think Travis ETN is a pretty safe pick with decent upside. Obviously, I mean, he finishes the running back three. So he's got the upside to finish in the top five. All right. Quick break and back with number eight on the rankings. All right. At number eight comes newly yoked. I don't know if you saw the picture. Oh, I haven't. Devon A. Chan. Tell me, I got to go look up some A. Chan pictures. I'm in. Yeah, he's 22 years old. What do you do?

A-Chant is, I think, a player that is going to be exhilarating slash frustrating. I think that's the truth. Like, if you're taking, of our top 10 running backs, there's nobody that I think I would feel less confident as my one. I, dude, I know. Do you know, were you laughing at that or are you looking at the pictures? No, I'm laughing at that. I'm laughing at what you said because. I, because I am in complete agreement, I am an A Chan stand. He's a nervous number one. I was like all in on A Chan last year, had him in a lot of leagues because I believed in him and the talent and all that. It was a wildly fun, awesome electric ride. I'm just so terrified, man. It's like. You love Moser. You talked about it on the last show, too. Absolutely. I love this running scheme. I think there's going to be a ton of points and I think Devon A. Anne Chan's going to be great. It's basically this. If you know.

And we don't. But if you know for sure that no matter how explosive a player is, he's going to miss a ton of games, if you know you're not going to have him for six or seven games, is that a good draft bet? And the answer is going to be no. The answer is too many. But what if three to four? Three to four is fine because most running backs miss two games. So, you know, if he's missing three or four and he's explosive in the others, I'm totally down for that. But when I... When I stare down drafting Devon A-chan, I really do have like, I feel like I'm like, I love this player. He's so great in the system. He's going to be great when he's on the field. I'm not confident he's going to be on the field. Six and a half games he missed last year. Three separate injuries, if you include the preseason. So he missed week one, missed a four-game stretch, played one attempt and missed the rest of that game and then was out the following week. When he was on the field, it was explosive, it was dynamic, it was.

you know, must-see television. He had 800 rushing yards. He ran the ball 103 times. He was, I mean, watching him, he was the most fun player to watch last year. It doesn't make sense. Him and C.J. Stroud were easily like, I just could not take my eyes away. Every single time you handed him the ball and you run that little, you know, that little zone read where he's just, you get foot in the ground and he's gone. Let me illustrate. Explosive plays. He was number one in yards over expectation per attempt. Number two was CMC, but the difference, he was at 2.87. CMC was 1.32. He averaged 7.7 every time he touched the football. And the pictures I was talking about was just that he's coming into camp having put on weight, which for him, you've got to be thrilled to see that because durability, I'm sure that was the message of the offseason. These guys aren't.

aren't stupid. They want to be there and contribute every single week, and he wasn't able to do that. He probably had a lot of frustrating games on the sideline saying, I want to play football. So you come back, you prepare yourself. You know, if it really is a two-man show without, you know, there were times last year because of injury that other players got worked in, whether it was Jeff Wilson getting snaps here and there, or I think Salvin Ahmed was still a part of the situation last year, right? I do very much think it's going to be a two-man show, barring injuries to either A. Chan or Most, that is what they want. They want it to be a 50-50 split. So exciting draft pick. And a tiny little bonus nugget. He lined up in the slot. We call that an H-hand nugget. Yes, that's fine. That's fine. Tiny little bonus nugget. Yeah. He lined up in the slot on 35% of his past place. Like.