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Main show · April 4, 2019

Early RB Rankings Part 2 + C.J. Trolls Jason

RSSApr 4, 2019 · transcript indexed
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Early RB Rankings Part 2 + C.J. Trolls Jason

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Inside the episode

132 passages
42:01 ↗

You're going to see. If you're down, Marlon Mac's on the bench, and Naim Hines is in the game, and you're going to be rolling your eyes and you're going to be frustrated. The banking on Sony being successful is banking on Marlon Mac being successful. To me, banking on Indianapolis being an up-and-coming team. Totally agree. I think most people would agree that both of those teams project to be very good next. Sure. And that's why I can buy into Marlon Mac, even though there's that...

42:28 ↗

a little bit of hesitance because I want my running backs getting targets. All right, Devonta Freeman, we've talked a lot about him. He comes into number 17, Mike all the way up at 14 in his rankings. I've got him at 15 right now, Jason at 21. We talked a lot about him on the March 26th, forgotten players episode. But give me the cliff notes on Devonta Freeman. I mean, the gist is that we still know that this team wants to build its offense around Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Devonta Freeman, right? Right.

42:58 ↗

The gist for me is... But they might not get what they want. The just for me is that Steve Sarkisian stinks at being an offensive coordinator. He is no longer there. He just did not dial up passing plays to Freeman. And that's where Freeman crushed in the passing game and getting rushing touchdowns. I believe in the Falcon's offense as a whole. And Dirk Cutter's back. Dirk cutter calls...

43:22 ↗

passing plays to the running back. Yeah, I think there's a lot to like with Freeman. I know I'm the lowest. That's more of an injury risk situation. Yeah, and it's hard to ignore that. The last few years, he has not been able to stay on the field. He's young enough where he can get back by his specific knee injuries are such that they could cause a higher probability of reaggravation. All right. Derek Henry at number 18. I haven't met 14. I love it.

43:48 ↗

Most bullish on Derek. Jason has him at 18, Mike, at 21. Last year, well, he had a really nice week 14, scored 47.8 fantasy points, set the world on fire. In fact, 48% of his fantasy points came in weeks 14 through 16. Now, I remember this next step. He didn't surpass 65 total yards until that game. You want to know why I remember that, Brooks? What was that?

44:15 ↗

Because I said it 30 times on the show the next week when I told people not to play him. And then he went out and scored 29.7 points in the follow-up. In the sequel. With 33 carries. Yeah, with 33 carries. Then 15 and then 11. He's a... If those trends continue. He is a big man. He can take a pounding. 30-plus carries. If there's anybody in the NFL, assuming Marshaun Lynch isn't in it,

44:45 ↗

If there's anybody that can handle 25, 30 carries a game, Derek Henry, they also had success. And my ranking is based entirely on the belief that that success will continue into the new year. That's it. It's so tough to buy into Derek Henry. We have, what, 3.8 or whatever seasons of. You can see, it's a little high for his yards per carry. No, no, no. His yards per carry have been great. The 3.8.

45:13 ↗

seasons of Derek Henry, hope, hype, and then complete and total failure for anything for fantasy purposes, except the fantasy playoffs of last year. The team wants to build around him. Great. I, unlike the Colts, unlike the Patriots, sorry Titans fans, I'm not buying into your offense. And that's why I'm hesitant, very hesitant for Derek Henry.

45:43 ↗

buying in to the Tennessee Derek Henry's. I am fully convinced based on looking at everything that they've both said and done, right? You can't just get on the hype train alert. Oh, Vrable wants to give them the ball. Oh, the tight, you know, the tight end coach who's now their offensive coordinator says we need to get them the ball. Oh, the owner says we need to give them the ball. That's all great. But then they went out and they spent big money to improve their guard and they're, they are building their team.

46:12 ↗

to run the ball with Derek Henry. And Derek Henry, he, you know, his yards per carry on the majority of his carries are not good. But on his career, they've always been great because he gets those huge breakway runs. But he's capable of that. I mean, he spent the first two years behind DeMarco Murray. He was great coming out of college. Damien Williams has a long history in the NFL. He had three great games. Sure. Situation's changed. Damien Williams got extended.

46:39 ↗

You're going back to the two-year five million. Here's the thing that I'll give you $5 million not to mention that anymore. Accepted. That's a good deal, Mike. You're going to lead me into my next point. Brooks, Brooks, write him a check. Before talking Damien is they're, okay, they're going to build their team around Derek Henry. Derek Henry's in a contract year. I mean, if the team is so sure that Derek Henry is the future of this team, why would you?

47:07 ↗

let him go into the last year of his contract and possibly lose it. Maybe they won't. It's April 3rd. No, and not only that. I don't have you heard anything, any whispers about contract extensions for Derek Henry? I've heard whispers about whispers. Here's the, here's the truth. I mean, they want Derek Henry to be their feature back. They don't need to extend him. And if they give him the ball 20 times a game and he sucks, they don't, they won't extend him. Yeah, they're going to try it.

47:35 ↗

Yeah, but we did say if he's if he's not good, he'll be, he'll be bad. That is well sad, Andy. Unbelievable insight. Mike mentioned some ghosts. There is a ghost there. Dionne Lewis is still a member of the Titans. But it seems like this team kind of figured out they tried to force Dionne Lewis into like they had they never sign him. They would have been better off last year. I agree. Yeah. That's not a so.

48:00 ↗

Aaron Jones at 19, carry on Johnson at 20. Let's talk about Aaron Jones. Man, I have a strange apathy about Aaron Jones this offseason. Apparently, we all got him in 19. We all recognize the talent. We all understand that, look, he ran for 5.5 yards of carry in both of his seasons. And yet...

48:25 ↗

Can any of us sit here and say, man, he's going to get more work than Jamal Williams? I think, yeah, that's the problem is everyone is scared of what Matt LaFleur was talking about. I mean, LeFleur gets the job and immediately he was talking about, well, we're going to try and split everything up. But Aaron Jones, once he finally won over Mike McCarthy to be the starter for the team, he was the running back 12 in points per game before he finally went down to injury. Aaron Jones is...

48:52 ↗

is the much better running back, which should say that he should get on the field more than Jamal Williams. But I don't think that's a guarantee. Jamal Williams always gets his coach a fresh hot coffee in the morning. He'll pick up your kids if you need him. I mean, he is. Here's your paper, Mr. Lefleur. He's a friend. He's a friend. No, I mean, have the last two French fries. The ceiling of Aaron Jones. Got a heck of a voice.

49:20 ↗

I don't know why he's from. That's me, Jamar Williams. I don't know why he's a newsie. That's exactly what I thought. I was totally a newsie. The ceiling for Aaron Jones is extremely high. That means I'm going to sing some newsies? Maybe. We got a different expectation. Ha! So, please resubscribe. When you get a chance, please resubscribe. Resubscribe. I know you just unsubscribe, but just hit that. Just hit the button again. Yeah, we understand.

49:49 ↗

You know, Aaron Jones is extremely talented and not just moderately. Like he is, which is the definition of extremely. Aaron Jones, when you watch him, he looks a lot like Alvin Camara. And I don't want to stress that too much and say he is. But in those games where he got the rock, he was on pace for only 222 carries only. That's still a good amount. I mean, that's, but that's not like workhorse back. 1,200.

50:18 ↗

yards and 16 touchdowns. That's Alvin Camara efficiency, and he's on a great offense. So if he gets the ball, if he's getting the ball, you know, what would that be? 13, 14 times a game, then he has the chance to be a top 10 back. The problem is he also has the chance to be irrelevant because there's no guarantee, there's no investment, there's no commitment.

50:46 ↗

to him where we as fantasy owners know right now he's the guy yeah make a commitment to me come on come on the floor give him like man just give him like a two year five million dollar extension so i can totally buy in wouldn't it be nice if here's what we got to do brooks and i you know you're the judge so you can work it you know legal stuff um

51:12 ↗

We've got to start working into these extensions, these contracts, these future deals. They need to have MGs. They need to have minimum guaranteed carries, MGCs. Oh, yeah. You need to know. When Eric Henry's extended, he signs a two-year $15.5 million deal that comes with 20 guaranteed carries per game. Then fantasy owners can buy in. I will be reading legal papers long into the night if that stuff starts working in.

51:39 ↗

All right, let's wrap it up with number 20, and then I'll give you a few more on our list. But number 20 is carry on Johnson. All right, last year, consistency rank of number 19. Finished the year at RB 34. Obviously, you missed a bunch of games. I've got him at 23. Jason has him at 15. That is an eight spot gap. Mike has him at 20. A little closer to my side. And the reality is when I was going through, and these are April.

52:11 ↗

uh late march april rankings but when i was going through i think my one reaction i said in studio when i was putting these guys together like i had carry on at like 14 15 mentally yes at your startup rankings yeah i mean i just had him yeah mentally whatever you want to say he was sitting there and i'm moving guys around and he just kept sliding down he just kept moving like my i kept looking at different players and saying do i like them better than carry on johnson with matt patricia head coach

52:41 ↗

Look, as a pure talent, Kerry on Johnson doesn't belong at 20. I don't think. I think he is a top 15, top 12 type of player. I'm worried. I'm worried about this team. Look, they want to run. That makes me happy. They just signed C.G. Anderson. You know, what are the chances that Carry on gets enough work to make you happy? Jason, you got him at 15. I think he's a firm...

53:08 ↗

RB2. Yeah, I think the chances he makes you happy are extremely high. With the sole exception of if his draft stock rises too high. I mean, I've heard about Carillon going, you know, high in the third round. That's probably too high because of who else is on the board. But Carillon is safer than you think. His ceiling isn't there from a volume in an offense standpoint. I'm not in love with the lion's offense. And I, you know, obviously he's not going to be a workhorse back.

53:38 ↗

But he will get the lion's share. He is the leader. Oh. He is the leader of that backfield and they know what they have in him. Nobody out there, I think, thinks they're going to come into year two after him knowing the system has gotten in the groove and say, let's take it back a step. Let's give him a little less work. Do you think he'll be the main guy? The main? Yes. I think he will. Man.

54:05 ↗

And he's on fire now. Yeah. Pass the torch. He will be the main of the lion for sure. I'd like to tail this discussion. Oh, good. Yes. I am the champion. If you look at when he was healthy last year before he left. So he didn't, he wasn't really involved. You've scarred me, man. You've scarred me. He wasn't really involved. I'm just going to skip to the end here. Here's.

54:34 ↗

Here's the end. So she just jumped the next guy. No, how dare you know? We are not skipping pass, carry on. Yeah. What I want to say is that last year on a points per game basis, when he was actually, you know, after the first few games and until he was injured, he was the RB 14. In a bad offense, he was the RB 14. That's about worry. I mean, like, that's his ceiling to me. Sure. I've got him at RB 15 right now. You've got him at RB 23. I just don't see a world where...

55:02 ↗

He gets worse this year than better. Yeah. You could be right. We'll see. I don't have my trust of Gimley, not high. We have Patricia trust, not high. Wasn't happy with the offense. And that's a total offensive assessment. That's not saying he doesn't want to run the ball. Lots of people want to run the ball. But that offense looked bad. They turned Matthew. They turned Matthew Stafford into a cub. I mean, it wasn't, it was not a good situation.

55:31 ↗

All right. Philip Lindsay comes in at number 21, Mark Ingram at 22, Chris Carson at 23. We have him way too low. And Tariq Cohen rounding out the top 24. Mike, you were looking into Chris Carson. Yeah. You thought we had him maybe a little lower than we should. Talk to the people as to why. And why wouldn't we just move him? I think I have a Chris Carson problem.

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