Fantasy Football - WR Rankings Countdown: 20-11 + Risky Picks - Podcast for 8/7

The Bengals average, I think, line is like 49. Yes. So again, this comes down to, there's two factors for T. Higgins. One is that his quarterback's healthy, and that's not always been the case. And the other is that Higgins is healthy. And that's not always been the case. If both of those are true, the way they pass the football, I mean, T. Higgins is really, this is the floor for him. This is the floor as far as our ranking of 20. He's being drafted at a wide receiver 14. I don't have any problem with that. Take your shots on T. Higgins because.

He can finish as high as the wide receiver. Six. I was going to say like 10. I think he can easily be top 10. I mean, you also have the built-in obvious. You do have that. If the injury happens to Jamar Chase. What's his highest fantasy finish ever? I'm just curious. Per game? No, no, no. I believe it's 17. Okay. So, yeah, that's where I, six seems a little.

Yeah, I mean, that is under the, that's like if Jamar Chase gets injured and he ends up with 12 touchdowns. In 2024, he was 15 and a half points per game. Right. 15 and a half points per game would be probably higher than. Well, in 12 games, so that was good enough for the wide receiver 19, saying if you get it, if you're at 15 and a half and you play 15 games, also knows that we're calling it the full season for T. Higgins, you're going to.

You're going to be a top 10 guy. This is year seven for T. Higgins. Yeah, 15 and a half would have been wide receiver 5 last year. George Pickens, for context, was 14.4 last year. But it's kind of chicken egg, though, right? Because if you don't play enough games, you also don't have as many games that you can have a down game or anything like that. Yeah, for sure. The thing is, is this year, and every year you want to target certain teams. I want to target the Cowboys, the Bengals, and the Lions. I want as many pieces from those teams as I can get. And the Rams.

Yeah, the Rams too. That's fine. Those don't feel like debatable picks, you're saying? Well, yeah, I mean. The Rams were the top scoring team in the league last year. For sure. My issue with the Rams is simply that you've got the question at the running back position. Most people do. Well, there is a question. There's a question. I have the answer, but there's a question. But the age of Devante Adams and whether or not he's still got it. And.

assuming Aaron Donald is back. I think that defense is... I don't doubt their offense, oh man. I don't doubt their offense. I think they'll be the top scoring offense again. I do not. I don't think... Because that's why I put the lions, the Bengals, and the Cowboys in another tier is because of their defense. All of those offenses are outrageously good. But when one team breaks fantasy, it's usually coinciding with, I got to score 35 points a game. Okay. Tett McMillan comes in at 19, 23 years old.

Mike is the highest on Ted McMillan. I have no idea what happened here. I just like... Well, the reason that you don't know what happened is because at one point months ago, I was very, very high on Tetaroa Macmilly. It would... He was in my top 10th. Months ago, it was... I was the one who was kind of scared of McMillan and the two of you guys felt real strong. You made great arguments, Mike. Apparently, you overcorrected. I have the correct ranking at 15.

Oh, I went too far? Yeah, yeah, yeah. I should have gone with the correct ranking. I don't know why I don't do that. Tetaroa is awesome. He's a great player. If he were in a different situation, he could finish as, you know, a top five wide receiver without question. The question is can Bryce Young do enough to allow Tataroa to be a wide receiver one? I still believe he can, especially with some of the injuries around.

That team right now, the other positions are going down. Judavian Sanders has gone down. Someone else just went down to an injury. Well, the rookie, the second round rookie will not be playing this year. Yes, that's what it was. And so I like Tet a lot. I just think his ceiling is a little bit hamstrung by Bryce Young. I mean, you look at last year.

And there's some things that were true about Tetaro McMillan. He was the offensive player of the year as a rookie, right? Offensive rookie of the year. He had over 1,000 yards, and he had over 1,000 yards. He finishes at wide receiver 17. And more importantly, for your fantasy team, he only had two weeks where he was inside the top 12 at the position. And one of them was 12 on the dot. So you look at that situation and you say, you know, I think the T. Higgins v. Tet McMillan,

is an incredible decision because on one hand, you have the clear bona fide guarantee number one of a team. And the other, you have obviously number two of the offense, but a huge difference at total yardage output. I like Carolina to, you know, I think Bryce Young can take a step forward. I've made that argument before. I, but I think that Jason's right. It'll be a little step, though. It will be a tiny step. And mind you, man, when he was on the sideline last night without.

Yeah, no pads. He looked tiny. That was the water boy. He just because he's a small guy. Yeah, he's just not a small. He's like Kyler. The upside case for him is Drake London. There are similar players, similar situations where the target market share should be enormous and they don't have good quarterbacks. You're not expecting a great offense. That being said, I can you get to 1,210? No. I mean, it doesn't seem like a far cry from last year. That would put him in that contention. Yeah, I think he.

Could, but that would. Three more touchdowns, 150 more yards? 10 touchdowns. It's Bryce Young, who in his career, we're going into year four. So as a rookie, just under 2,900 passing yards at 5.5 yards per attempt. The next year, 2,400 at 6.3. This past year, his best season, just barely passes 3,000 yards at 6.3 yards per attempt and 23 passing touchdowns.

McMillan last year was 25% of the targets. He has to jump to 30 plus. Yeah, he needs to be a 30%. If you're getting 25% again of Bryce Young, a big jump for Bryce Young with the numbers that he's put up so far, it would be 3,500 yards, which is, like, that's not a... That's potentially 1,500 fewer than Burrow with T. Higgins. Right. But if Bryce Young gets to 3,500 and McMillan...

makes a jump to 30%, which is not impossible based on the talent of the player, then you'll be happy. It's just a big step has to happen for both players. He's a great player, but he may be stuck a little bit. And Bryce Young, 34th in average depth of target, 34th. And in seven games, Tet was three or fewer receptions. So if you combine...

that kind of an output at low depth of target, that would be scary. Yeah, Xavier Leggett was the other guy I was thinking that went down to injury. So I agree, you need to get to 30%. We all love the talent of Tet. It's just a question of, would you rather have the second wide receiver for the Cowboys, for the Bengals, for great offenses that you know there's just going to be so much points being scored, or would you rather have the number one for an inferior offense? I lean the great offense. Like last year, T. Higgins got.

You know, the, what was, his final numbers, 59 for 846 and 11 with a 19% target share. Yeah. Just like, yeah. And then McMillan's at 25, barely passing 1,000. So, hey, room for T. Higgins to be even more involved is, is certainly there. Devante Smith comes in at number 18. I got him in 19, Jason at 16, Mike at 18. So we're all right around the same range. Being drafted.

Being drafted at wide receiver 17 in the fourth round. It's going to keep going up. Is it? Yeah. If you look at where money is, if you look at the big money leagues, if you look at, I assume underdog and best ball as well, Kyle looked that up. But I know like the big money leagues. He's usually. He's going as a top 12 wide receiver. Yeah, he's usually around wide receiver 12 or 13. And we've seen it. Obviously he's finished as a wide receiver 7 before. We've talked a lot about. Oh, I was wrong. Wide receiver 13.

Well, that's on underdog. Yeah. So I do think he gets drafted a little higher. This feels, I was surprised that my ranking, my actual statistical ranking is 16. Where did you said he finished at 7? I see him at 10. Oh, is that, sorry. Yeah. He's finished his wide receiver 10 in 2022. I mean, he feels like an obvious easy pick and a very, this again feels like a floor pick in terms of like the worst he's going to finish.

I would say if Mackay Lemon wasn't dealing with hamstring injuries again, maybe McKay Lemon excitement heading towards the season could keep his ADP in place. I think that the trouble is that in this top 20 range, there are a lot of names that are kind of exciting. And we've been around the block with Devonte Smith a little bit. There's pessimism around the offense. I'm just trying to think of narratives that could keep him lower. But to me, it seems like one of those things where you might, if you pass on him here, or you pass on him even a little bit higher,

You may just really, really regret it because it might be really obvious about six weeks into the year that this guy is a bona fide wide receiver one in fantasy. I think it is worth. And they're favored in the four of their first six. Yeah. I think it's worth saying Devante Smith because he has been a wide receiver two in the NFL for his own team. But Devante Smith is fully 100% without question in my mind.

capable of being an alpha wide receiver one for an NFL team. He is an elite wide receiver. He came in as one of the best prospects ever if he was just, if he weighed a few more pounds, you know, he was a little too light coming into the NFL. But when he came in, he was one of the best prospects statistically. He just was 170 pounds. You don't.

that doesn't usually work, but he is so good as an actual wide receiver that he's overcome that. And I don't think that there's any fear there personally with whether he can step from the wide receiver two role to the wide receiver one. The Eagles have done a really good job of just taking people other teams have talked themselves out of for dumb reasons with Jalen Carter, now the highest paid defensive player in football or whatever. And Devante Smith, they just get the Heisman winner, you know? I mean, they took them with the 10th pick overall. It's been a minute.

And the smaller wide receiver archetype has been working more and more. Speaking of which, number 17, Zay Flowers. Zay Flowers at 17. What is happening? I knew you're going to. What is happening? I was really hoping you didn't see that. Stop copying me. Oh, man. What is happening? I didn't know that I was. I'm out of here, dude. Mike hates Zay Flowers. Why do you hate Zay Flowers? You're the lowest of amongst us. You have him as wide receiver 20. Ouch.

We've got him higher than that. What are you doing here, Mike? I thought you were a fan. I thought he thought Zay was like a good player. You guys saw what happened last year for my rankings and you're like, I need, I need it on Mike's advice. Last year's wide receiver 7. Gosh, darn it. I'm moving them up right now. I'm just throwing numbers in. Got that bag. I don't even care if I believe him. 104 guaranteed. Zay Flowers comes in at 17.

Have you guys been reading about, like, Lamar's relationship with Harbaugh and Monkin and stuff like that? It's very... There we go. Wide receiver 14. Okay. Well, that happened quick. I gave him a touchdown. Okay. Which is a big deal for him. He's not really known for getting those. I'm not out of control. I have him at...

projection of 6.7 questions. He's only at 14 over the last three years, and you've heard my bear case on Zayflowers before. There are lots of games, and this is kind of a Baltimore thing. Yeah, you put that bear to hibernation. Get out of the way. There are a lot of games where they've not needed him. I mean, this has been part of the career of Zayflowers. For whatever reason, there are games that Zayflowers looks dominant, and then there are games where, I mean, you had games last year, two for 13. Okay.

That's the wide receiver 89. Two for six on 95% of snaps. So there's some elements to the game for Zay Flowers where he's just at times disappeared over the years. Same thing happened the year before, and it was really frustrating because you basically ping pong between disappearing acts, three points, one point, 15, 17. Three points, 15, 27, five points. It's not been as consistent for Zay Flowers as other players.

But last year it was a step up in his points per game. He played all 17 games. He's been very healthy, something you can't say about T. Higgins. I do have my questions about, I feel like the Lamar situation is basically does he gel with the head coach and the offensive coordinator? And it seems like it's been hard for certain people to connect with him and get him motivated. The reports right now are that he is. But that was lost at times with Harbaugh.

Yeah, this was the undersized wide receiver that I remembered finished as wide receiver 7, which was last year. Right. Flowers, one of the stickiest most predictive stats at wide receiver for future success is simply target share. Yep. That actually sticks around and has a high correlation with being good the following season. His target share in his career has gone up each of his three seasons, started at a very healthy 24.