Fantasy Football 2018 - Explain Yourself! Ranking Debates & Hot Takes

Then you have his actual touchdown rate. His career touchdown rate is 5.3. So every time he throws the ball, you have a 5.3% chance of that turning into a touchdown. It was at 4.3 this past season. I think that absolutely you see positive regression back to the mean for Drew Brees. You can look at his deep passing. He was still sensational.

He was 13th in deep passing attempts, fourth in deep passing completions. There were five passers that had 30 plus deep completions, and three of those five guys had 10 or more touchdowns on those passes. I'm talking Alex Smith, 33 completions deep, 12 touchdowns. The guy you mentioned, Russell Wilson, 33 completions deep, 12 touchdowns. Stafford, 3010. Then you go down to Drew Brees, who had 33 deep completions and 5.

Touchstones. That's called an outlier type of situation. Now you want to bring up the defense. Okay. Drew Brees has actually played with some good defenses in 2010. His defense was seventh against points, fourth and yards. That's Super Bowl year, by the way. That season. That's when they win the Super Bowl. Sure. But that year when his defense was great, 448 completions, 4,620 yards, 33 touchdowns. Let me ask you sincerely, not as an argument. Sure. Sincere question.

I thought I'd have Drew Brees ranked higher. When we were doing pre-ranking discussions, it was Jason we were making fun of for ranking him so low. And I ended up tied it with him at 10. I understand the outlier of percentage of passes to touchdown. How do you reconcile the massive reduction of attempts last year? You can call everything else an outlier, but last year you attempted...

536 passes. The year before was 673. That is eight and a half attempts fewer per game, 137 fewer on this season. That's the issue. I can answer it for you. It's very easy. They were a good team. They were a bad team before. They were losing games. They had to throw, throw, throw, throw, throw. And sadly, for your argument, they're going to be a really good team this year. Right. But like I was saying, he's played with good defenses. When he was, what, 34?

I've gone through the numbers. Drew Breeze is still incredible. He has not lost anything. In 2013, his defense, fourth against points, fourth and yards. I believe he had the best yards per attempt of his career. In that year, when he had a top five defense, over 5,000 yards and 39 touchdowns. And the running game was sensational. Who gets the uptick while Mark Ingram is gone for four weeks?

That, that, I think, is fair. Look, if you draft Drew Breeze and he gets off to a hot start, I can tell you right now I'm going to be recommending that you trade him. Twice. Trade him twice. Because I think when Mark Ingram is back, you're going to have them succeed more running the ball. Their defense is great. They traded a first rounder next year to trade up more into the first round and get the defensive guy that they thought was their missing piece. You know, Drew Breeze.

He might have finished on the end of the year as a good quarterback, you know, quarterback won this last year, but he sucked. Yes. He just, if you had him, you didn't make the playoffs. He sucks. Let me name guys last season who had a higher percentage of their games finishing as a quarterback one, which you really have to have them finish as a quarterback one on a weekly basis. To be number two overall. Eli Manning, Trevor Simeon, Blake Bortles, Andy Dalton, Josh McCown, Jared Gough.

Carson Palmer, Matthew Staff. Carson Palmer? This is, yeah. Yeah, this, well, I guess that was. Well, percentage-based, whether he got hurt or not. Right. He's seven games. He cheated a little bit. That's okay. That's not cheating. It's percentage of games played. You did do the right thing in that argument, though, Mike. Ignore all the other Trevor Simians and bring up the Carson Palmer. I mean, it's a percentage of the games that they played that they finished as a quarterback won. We got to move on, but I will say this. He starts the season against the bucks, the Browns, the Falcons, the Giants.

there's opportunity for him to get off to a hot and those are the four games without ingram so my point is that's a nice schedule without ingram he may end up number two through those first four weeks even if you don't buy into him as number two over the season that might be your time to cash in on drew breeze if you think they're going to return to the running offense um the worst part is i i wish and i'm mike does have him at a merciful number four in four point leagues just so that the world knows cam and russell wilson are above him in four point leagues

All right. The last one here, before we close it down. The last name on this list is, and this is a common theme in all of mine. It's, I think you guys are both crazy. No, I mean. This one is, I think the argument honestly presents itself. For me or for you? For both of us. Just this.

Just the split of the finish, fantasy finish for this player. Running back, the aforementioned, very suspended for four games, very suspended. So suspended. More than Mark Ingram. I have him just outside of running back three territory. Jason has him just inside of it. And he has him at 19. Now, I imagine in some part, your guys' ranking is a warning to the listener.

It's a warning, like Jason said on the show, I think three or four episodes ago, he said he wouldn't draft marking him. Now, I have him at 19 because I think that's where he's going to finish. And the argument's easy for me. He was 15th and 13th in fantasy with 13 and 12 games played a couple of years ago. The last two seasons where he did play 16, he finished 9th and 6th with a full slate. So you had a 13th.

finished with him at 12. I think they need him. Was Kamara on that team? No, he wasn't. Yeah. But they've already come out and been very vocal about their willingness to, their lack of a willingness to over encumber Alvin Kamara carry wise. I think that Ingram will slip in drafts and then still finishes an RB2 because this is a great team that proved, like I feel like Jason should be on my side here.

I've always been the Ingram truth or he's a great player. Just because of the previous argument about Drew Brees and what made them a successful team, if that templates to be followed, you just subtract four games from Mark Ingram. And I didn't put him in that 15th and 13th where he has finished with only 12 and 13 games played. I put him at 19. I feel cozy, comfy. I feel like it's an easy argument. Yeah, I think with Camara encroaching in on the total carry counts as...

the argument that you laid out Andy in your case for Camara before the suspension, if that starts shifting and they have much more of an even carry split, then you lose four games. And then you have to, I mean, I don't want to say this because it sounds like a joke, but you have to keep in mind, he was, he tested positive for PEDs. Right. He had something that the NFL thought helped improve his performance.

How did Doug Martin do when he got back off of his, you know, suspension for Adderall that he thought, oh, that, that helped him, you know, gain an advantage. He didn't do his cooking by the buck. He did. So, I mean, there's a lot of reasons for me to believe that this could be the beginning of the end for my man, my main man, Mark. Wow. Yeah. I don't like saying it. I don't like believing it, but, you know. He's not at your, the favorite age for running back. I will say he's not happy either about the contract.

Yeah. If you noticed that. Because he's in a contract year. Is that correct? That is 100% correct. He seems like he's all, no matter how many extensions he signs, he's always in a contract. Last year he might get out of the contract, making a contract year. Most players are either in the state of being unhappy with their contract or, you know, about to have to sign a new one anyway. And it's even when he gets back, like you said, with the contract situation, the.

I think the right thing for the Saints to do is you insert Mark Ingram right back into his normal workload. There's no guarantee that Sean Payton is going to do that. We maybe in these first four games, Jonathan Williams or someone else emerges. There's a name to remember, by the way. Jonathan Williams, former Buffalo Bill running back, impressive numbers and then cut. Yeah. Dealt with some off the field stuff. If he comes in and he's hot for four weeks. Boston Scott.

Right. They drafted Boston Scott. Little bitty baby Boston Scott. There's just, with the way that they have treated Mark Ingram in the past, there is no guarantee he slips right back in to being the one beat. You baked all that risk into that ring. I did. All right. You know who I love? Who do you love? I love the food clean. I love the food claim. You want to know why? Why? They're incredible. They're awesome. And you know where they hang out?

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Oh. You ready, Mike? Get them pipe. Mini La Don't be. Loosen them up. Oh, what? Mailbag. We're going on. We're going a little long today. All right. Extra innings. We have, oh my gosh, a baseball. A baseball reference? You, sir, should leave this set immediately. Pine tar. Wait, of all the base. Never mind. Yeah, never mind. That's enough baseball. If you have a question for this podcast.

We're here to hell. Go to the website, the fancy football arts.com, click the submit a question button, or dial our voicemail hotline 302464 TFFB. Here's a voicemail question. Hey, guys. It's Doc in Atlanta here. You've got Jordy Nelson tied with Ted Ginnett at 59. Really? Jordy is not that big of a playmaker entering this Oakland offense. Do you think he's really going to just be a non-factor? I don't know. And I think Ted Ginn should be a little higher.

And my last thing is, there's not even a 55 on these rankings. What gives, guys? Oh, because our players are tied at 54? 50. Oh! It's like the floor in the hotel that doesn't exist. You skip from 54 to 56? Yeah, the 13. It's the hidden floor? It's the hidden ranking as well. Do you want Jordy at 55, Mike? Can we do it? I think we can pull some strings? I'll give them like three more yards, maybe to break that time. Look, if Jordy's the...

the starter, he doesn't belong at 59. I think this is kind of like a pause. I see him as a starter, and I still have him at... Why give Jordan Nelson no respect here and give Michael Crabtree respect moving to Baltimore? Because...

I think the difference here is too fast. If Jordy went to Baltimore, wouldn't you feel different? If Jordy went to Baltimore, I would feel different because he would be the clear one. Mari Cooper is the clear one. Part of why they got rid of Crabtree is to make sure that they know who the one is. So now you're splitting the wide receiver two duties between Jordy, who looked terrible last year when he didn't have Aaron Rogers, who's up there in age, and Martavis Bryant, who's a...

pretty solid wide receiver. Those guys are splitting those secondary targets. Tell you what. I made an adjustment to my rankings. I had Jordy Nelson at 58 receptions, but I moved him.

You moved him down? Last year I moved them. Yes. 55. That's... Same yardage. 55 is a number of receptions that Jordy Nelson did not make it to last year. I know. And that's why. And that's why. And that's why. Do you know how many receptions I have Jordy down for? Oh, don't do it. No, I have him down for 54. I bet it's a disrespectful amount. It's 54. Is it really? Well, it was. Fifty. Boom. You moved him to 55.

Mike, where do you got him? Hold on. How many receptions do you have for Jordy? This is not our normal. This is not a normal statistical process. I had them at 58. You had them at 54. I think reasonable. I already have them at 63. Yeah, there you can't have him out. Jordy Nelson from week six out, aka not Aaron Rogers, was he put up 34 receptions for 252 yards. Who's the quarterback over in Oakland? Is it Aaron Rogers?

No. Okay. No, but my point, my point is, my point is simply you said all people all the time. You take, you take his numbers last year, which were bad. They are, Jordan Nelson appears finished. You watch him play. He is not the same player. Yes, he can, he can absolutely replace Michael Crabtree in the red zone. So maybe his, his touchdowns are actually at a rate where.