Fantasy Football 2018 - Explain Yourself! Ranking Debates & Hot Takes

Yes, and I feel like almost you both have to explain yourself more than I do. I will say seeing my ranking, and we go through, we do our projections out, and guys fall where they fall. I'm shocked, honestly, where he ended up for me, because right now looking at the number 62, that's too low. But having said that, Andy's got him at 21 currently.

which is far too rich for my blood. So Andy, explain yourself. I can, and I think you started to make the case for me. Last season, ankle surgery recovered in the offseason from that, had a hamstring injury, sidelined him through a portion of camp, and it cost him games during the regular season. But this is the number five pick in the NFL draft. Corey Davis is 6-3-209. And last year, you saw a rocky offense, a regressing...

Marcus Mariotta. And I know you both in this room, or at least Jason, believes that Marcus Mariotta has the ability to have a strong bounce back sleeper quarterback type of season after a very down year last year where he threw 13 touchdowns and 15 picks, which by the way, I believe 13 was exactly half of what he threw the year before. So I agree that bounce back is in the cards for him. You bring in a new offensive coordinator that comes out of that.

High Flying Rams offense last year, Matt LaFleur. And you give me the number one passing option, a guy that is a red zone threat in Corey Davis, that can out muscle people. And I see a recipe for a Devin Funches type ascension. He's the example I want to bring up here because last year he went from the 86th rank. He finished the season, the 86th ranked wide receiver in 2016. He finished last year at 21, exactly where I have Corey Davis.

And it's the same recipe only I think Corey Davis is more talented. I don't necessarily think that Mario is more talented than Cam Newton. But Cory Davis has the ability to be a top-tier guy. He just didn't get the opportunity last year to show it, battled through injuries. That's his responsibility. But in two playoff games, he was nine for 98 and two touchdowns, so you got to see it there. And you actually saw the target shift.

in his favor and away from Richard Matthews in the playoff games. I think he's pretty safe as a wide receiver too. I mean, you're going to have to name, you know, 24 other wide receiver ones in the NFL above Corey Davis. And I think he's going to be in that category. I think the talent is there. But the argument that you bring up about Devin Funches is, I think, an argument more in our favor because Devin Funches had the number one wide receiver on that team. Calvin Benjamin leave. And his target volume had to go up.

And then Greg Olson. Yes, thank you. Greg Olson went down. So Devin Funches became the absolute de facto target hog at the wide receiver position, whereas with LaFleur coming over from that, you know, high flying Rams offense, they use three wide receivers like crazy. The three wide receivers set and they spread the ball evenly to those three. And you've got three guys in Taiwan, Taylor, Richard Matthews. And so I am high on Marioita and you might.

Say I'm a little bit low on Corey Davis. I think it's because this is going to be an offense that spreads it around, and he won't have the opportunity to end up with, you know, the 120, 130 type targets. That's my issue with Corey Davis. Does he have the talent?

Yes, but the opportunity, I'm not sure he's going to be able to command the number one target. I mean, because the three wide receiver argument holds no water with me compared to other teams. Everybody in the NFL runs three and four wide receivers all the time. And everybody has slot receivers. Everybody's got, everybody's got tight ends. Everybody's got all those position players. I want to know why Courtney Davis can be 50. There has to be someone else that you have on that roster ahead of him.

You're not going to get a top 15 quarterback performance if 50 is the height of your wide receiver production. Ironically, I think the most recent memory I have of a top 15 quarterback without having a top 50 wide receiver was, in fact, Marcus Marietta a couple years ago. We haven't even mentioned Delaney Walker. Right. Who's an 800 yard per season type of guy. Despite using a walker.

Oh, yeah, body. Oh, new nickname Delaney and the Walker. Oh, that is rough. But Marcus Mariotta, his career high, which was his sophomore year, 3,400 yards and 26 touchdowns. And I side more with Jason on. Corey Davis, I think, is tremendous, but will he be force-fed enough targets? If he was in a 6-3-209 fourth-round pick that emerged in the playoffs,

You wouldn't have me putting him in this position. Yeah, absolutely. And we'll move on. I've got one for Jason here. I didn't put him in this position other than the fact that Tennessee put him in this position. They drafted him to be great. All the offseason reports have been very, very solid on Corey Davis now. And so I think you're going to see a guy that even without volume. Now I haven't met 120 targets. I don't think that's crazy. But even if he doesn't get that, this is a guy that can have 8 to 10 touchdowns, you know.

flat-footed. That's how big he is. All right, Jason, I want to talk about a player that Mike and I have at 41 and 42. I couldn't be less excited about him if I tried. And I'm surprised Mike's down there with me. This is one of those things where Mike's right, and I want to explain that a little further before I, you know, turn it over to the guy dancing to my right in Jason. What Mike was saying is when we do our projections, we go team by team.

And we break down, you know, we break those completions down into the wide receivers and into the running backs and into the tight ends. And we statistically build each player. And we're not sitting there going, okay, that means that this player is now ranked number 10 and then I've got to make them number 11. We fill out all those projections. Then we go and look and let the data do the talking for us. And so in this case,

The dad I put this guy at 41 and 42 for me and for Jason. He's 26, which is just outside of running back two range. And that is Marlon Mack running back for the Indianapolis Colts. Our consensus rate because of that is 33. I can live with that as well. But Jason, tell me why Marlon Mac has a chance to emerge as a running back to. Yeah. So Marlon Mac, I mean, when I look at it and I go, oh, okay, Marlon Mac is 26th.

I think I've got him too low, right? Because here's why. Marlon Mack is actually a good player. Every time that I watched him last year, I liked it. And you hear the arguments of, oh, he only had. Every time? When I watched Marlon Mack. I loved his highlights. They were great. But you know who else had great highlights on the Indianapolis Colts last year? T.Y. Hilton, who sucked.

but he can do it. You saw monster big plays. The problem was the Colts were terrible. The Colts offensive line was atrocious. Andrew Luck was not there. What are you going to do other than, I mean, they put everybody in the box, and yeah, he only had 3.8 yards of carry, and yeah, that was the best on the team. I mean, if you compare him to the other guys on the team, he led the way in yards per carry.

He is a talented back. But now, now you have the vacated spot of Frank Gore and his 261 carries. They've got to go somewhere. If Andrew Luck is back, Marlon Mack's going to be a steal in drafts. I realized. Did you say Paul Perkins? Is that what you said? No, because Paul Perkins, when I watched, I never saw anything special.

Marlon Mack, when I watched, I did see plays that I thought were actually special. Now, could he turn in to a, he has the opportunity and fails because the offensive line isn't good enough? Sure. But, I mean, you've got to be betting on. So if you think Andrew Luck is back, okay, you're talking about, I mean, even last year, what, Frank Gore, Frank Gore was the running back 19 last year at his old age and 12 the two years prior. Someone is going to score there. So if you want to say, hey,

I'm putting my chips in, and my belief is that Jordan Wilkins, you know, later round rookie running back. Right. Robert Turbin. You know, he's way better, right? What was his yards per carry? Was it even into the threes? Answer, no. He was below three yards of carry. No, Marlon Mack's going to have the opportunity. And if he fails, he fails, but I see him as the starting running back for a time that just vacated 260 plus attempts with Andrew Luck. I really don't have a problem with their ranking.

Yeah, it's too low. I don't have that. No, it's not too low. It's not too low. I would have a problem if you were in the teens with Marlon Mack because I don't think that you have evidence of improvement on that offensive line and evidence that Matt can carry a workload and pull over 3.8 to carry. Being the fastest of the worst isn't an argument in his favor. And I do see Paul Perkins comparisons because this is opportunity more than production so far, statistically. Would you agree with that?

Yeah, statistically he hasn't produced. Statistically, he didn't do anything great. But I don't have a problem with 26 if you want to take a leap on him. I think he is a better, more talented running back. You've got a guy who is a great pass catcher, but he's also, you know, he's 213 pounds, ran a four, five. He's got enough talent here. The problem, and I don't have a problem with the ranking either. It's you're projecting him to be the starter. I am not. And that's what it comes down to because if he won the job, 26 seems fine.

And even the problem with, let's say he earns the grinder role, which he's got to, like you said, he's got to beat out Wilkins. He's got to beat out Bob Turbin. He's got to beat out Kristen Michael. They drafted Naim Hines in the fourth round, who is a sensational scatback. So this last year's line of 33 targets, 21 receptions, it wouldn't surprise me if that actually goes down. And the passing game to the running back does filter more.

through Heinz than it does through Marlon Mack. And if Marlon Mack loses that role, then his fantasy value is going to explode in the people who are spending a high ADP pick on him, which I think when we're getting to draft season, people are going to have to make a decision on Marlon Mack. Is he the starter or is he not? Will you do me if I don't think they're going to have to. You want to know why? You think it will play out? Because I think they're going to sign another player. It could. And then we'll bring Jason on to eulogize Marlon Mac. Sure. Because if you look at at,

At what people think as possible top destinations for DeMarco Murray, the Colts are number one on that list. It's the Colts, the Seahawks, maybe the Saints to cover for Mark Ingram those first four weeks, Baltimore, Denver. Those are the teams that would put that. But right now, he's got as good of a chance to win the job. So I don't really have that much of a problem with it. I think I'm with Mike. I just projected him not to be the starter. You projected him to be the starter, and that's probably where he'd be if he was a starter. Yep. Fair? All right.

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