Starts of the Week + TRADE BETRAYAL, Week 11 Breakdown - Fantasy Football Podcast for 11/16

And so I think you can still start Colcomet in this matter. That's with the capital D. Right, right, right. That was actually all caps. It's Tyson. Say it with me now. Tyson. Bilbo. Okay. That's what it sounded like. Quick break. Back with Chargers Packers. I still can't look at Josh. Well, to be fair, prior to this incident, very hard to look at Josh. That's fair. That is fair. Thank you. Every time that you say something that's even remotely on my side, I feel good. Good. Los Angeles. They're four and five. The Packers are three and six. The Draft King Sportsbook line is Chargers minus three. The overrunner is 44. Neither of these teams currently playoff bound. Justin Herbert has been on fire. From a fantasy perspective, he's been very good. He's the quarterback four on the season. He's got top 12 performances in seven of nine weeks. And, you know, the Packers at Lambo.

Not the best matchup for the quarterback position. I wouldn't expect top five this week from Herbert, but I also wouldn't expect anyone to bench him. Yeah, small chance of rain on the road in Lambo here, cold weather game. It doesn't make it self look like a pass heavy game, especially when you look at the Packers being a run funnel defense. They've really shut down quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends, but they are just gashable on the ground. Obviously, Austin Echler looks like he's a great play this week. I don't overblow that because Austin Echler, he doesn't just have good performances against bad defenses or doesn't show up against good defenses. So I'm not like over the moon for Echler this week versus most weeks. He's just always going to be a top five guy. Can I say something briefly about our show yesterday, the playoff primer and...

I saw a lot of people respond to that show. I think it was well received. I think people went out and they made moves. I saw people sharing their trades for Dak Prescott. I saw people sharing their trades for Austin Echler. It was an excellent show, you're right. It was an awesome, excellent show. I want to just comment briefly on the fact that just a reminder, like you're not in the playoffs right now. Like I do want to remind people there are four weeks left. So if you are fighting to get into the playoffs, There are some trades that you could make that would be putting the cart before the horse. And I just want people to be careful. I know you're at the deadline. So if you're secure, that's what that was, that was to let you know what the future holds for a lot of players at the position. But, you know, you got to get there. And you got four weeks to do it. And there are some players that have great playoff schedules that don't have the best schedule for the next four weeks. And so you need to contextualize that. You don't need to do everything you can no matter what.

and then not end up there. If I don't end up in the playoffs, I'm going to be so mad. I didn't take your deal. Well, that, yeah, look, you told me that yesterday. You said, you guys talked for, I think it was three, four hours. Yeah, yeah. And then you came out of your little trading vestibule. And I didn't know which way you were going to go. And you kind of said, look, I know this is unrealistic because you'll have traded your picks by then. But if Sunday comes around, because our deadline, it's basically when the game's end on Monday. Right. You said if Sunday comes around and we've lost.

we're probably going to come back to you. Yeah, I'll take that deal if you've still got the picks. Yeah, which, I mean, we'll see. I definitely don't have nine trade offers out right now. So Echler, of course, you play him. The Herbert question, I mean, I guess people could have Kyler, Kyler against Houston or Herbert on the road against the Packers. I would play Kyler. I lean that direction too. And then Hal against the Giants, I probably stay with Big Erbs there based on his performances, just because Hal has been unpredictably. Weird at times. I've got Howell one spot behind Justin Herbert. I don't want to mess around with Chargers tight ends at all. No, no, no. I'm throwing that out there. I don't really want to mess around with non-keen and Allen wide receivers. Jalen Guyton, Quentin Johnson, could either of them have a good game this week, of course? Yeah, sure thing. Could neither of them? Oh, yeah. Probably. Yeah. What on earth do we do with Packers? I mean, there's a world where you don't want to play any of them.

Yeah, I mean, you can throw on the chargers pretty easily. So it's a tempting matchup at home in a game that you're not a huge underdog in. The question is just, it's hard to know who to start between Christian Watson, Romeo Dobbs, Jaden Reed. And because of that, I think in redraft leagues, you don't start any of them. I agree with that, and Watson's banged up again. Yeah, in Draft Kings, you know, that's where you can take a shot on someone. Like I know Jane Reed is 4,000. And so he's just a really good value on a good matchup when he doesn't cost a lot. If you're factoring in the value of players, not just start-sit decisions in your home leagues, then you can play with them. But otherwise, I'm pretty much out on all Packers. Aaron Jones. Minus Aaron Jones, yes. Yeah, that would be the one. Did you hear the big rumor? I didn't.

The Belichick rumor? Oh, the manders want to trade for Belichick? No, I've heard. No, no, no. I heard he's leaving after the year. He's going to be the head coach and general manager of another franchise. And there's some rumors that that's already decided where he's going. And that's not the Manders? I've heard this with the Manders. That's the Los Angeles Chargers. Interesting. Yeah. And that he'll take over the defense, he'll let Herbert be Herbert. He wants to go. I mean, like, to me, There's no chance he's going to the mandars. None. Why? Unless he has a very, unless he has a big belief in Sam Hal. Sam Hal and Justin Herbert, that is a massive differential on the future of what you expect the player to be. So I would be, if I'm him, I'd much rather go to a place where Justin Herbert is. Yeah, I mean, obviously you'd rather have Herbert than Howell. But he's under contract. So this would be a trade situation and whatever the Patriots. The Patriots.

I'm sure they will consider his wishes. Yeah, that's all I'm saying. So it's one of those things where it'll be very interesting to see. I think we're done with this game. All right. We're going to move on. We've got the Las Vegas Raiders at 5 and 5 taking on the 6 and 3 Miami Dolphins. The Draft King Sportsbook line. Miami minus 13 and a half. The overrunner is 46.5. Goodness gracious. Miami opened at minus 10. And it's been bet to minus 13 and a half? Yeah. Who would you take at 13 and a half? That line becomes interesting, but I would take the Raiders. I'm sorry, I would take the Dolphins. What we have seen with, I mean, I guess the question is, are the Raiders good? Because they're 5 and 5 and they're at least playing with new life.

You know, the Antonio Pierce coming in as head coach and rallying the troops and they're coming off of two wins. Maybe the Raiders are a legitimate team. Over the course of the season, the Raiders have looked really bad. They have a low-drafted rookie at quarterback right now. They're not a scary team. And what we've seen with the Dolphins this year is they can't get over the hump against good teams. And they absolutely destroy and annihilate the souls. of everyone else. So at home for Miami against the team that I don't believe is really actually good in the Raiders, I think they're going to roll. What will be interesting is the Raiders clearly have made a decision that they're going to give the Rock to Josh Jacobs as much as humanly possible. What do they do when they're down 24 to 3? They're going to give Josh Jacobs the Rock as much as humanly possible. See, I think we'll finally get to see what Aidan O'Connell can do.

They're going to have to try to throw the ball to get back into this game. Do you think you want to see that? I'm not saying I think people want to know what the potential Devante Adams and Jacoby Myers is in the offense. And like the one thing about Miami, I know they got their corners back, but when you're playing a pre-event type of defense at some point in this game, if you're against, you know, a huge deficit, I mean, the game projects that be 13.5 point differential. I'm just excited to have a game that they can't. You can't get back into this game just handing it to Josh Jacobs. It's not going to be a realistic thing. I agree. And over the last six weeks, the Dolphins have really shut down the run. They're top three over the last six weeks and total fantasy points to running backs. So it doesn't project to be a great matchup for Jacobs. And the implied team total for the dolphins is 30 points. That's a number where you want to get as many players in the game as possible. And there are a lot. You could start Moster. You could start Tyreek, obviously. Jalen Waddle, obviously.

There's going to be a ton of questions. I'm telling you right now, I'm starting to Von A-chan. You don't want to miss out. You're not waiting for more information. I am not waiting for more information. I don't want to miss out on what he can do in a match-up like this against the Raiders who can get gashed on the ground and have a 30-point performance on my bench. Maybe he goes out and puts up five points. I mean, obviously, if he's active, he has not technically been activated yet. But the expectation is that I think they said he could have pretty much played with a...

with like a knee sleeve. They took a very measured approach here, and I think Devon H.N.'s wheels up. Yeah, I mean, the truth is Devon H.N. I probably take a different view than you in the sense that he's going to have limited opportunities. They're not, you know, this is not going to be, I think you're talking eight. I don't mind that. Give me eight Devon H.N. Runs against the Raiders. If he has a tent or anything like that, I think it's risky. I wouldn't start him in any circumstance. I start Devin Singletary over him every day of the week this week against Arizona. Devin Singletary, assuming that Damien Pierce isn't there, projects to be a great start. I don't have any problem. If that's, if you want to take the safer approach, I think Singletary is safer. His floor is higher than what Devon A. Chan first week back off of injury is. I will still start Devon A. Chan there. You're a wild man. No risk get, no biscuit. You're a wild man. I want those points. Tyree Kel, you play, Jalen Waddle, of course. And, um,

You know, the Raiders, it's going to be Jacobs, is going to be Adams. And then stop. And then stop talking. The last three games, stop talking, one reception, two receptions, two receptions. Yeah, and they did make, I mean, like, I know Adams last week, it was a better game. Like Adams had, the number that made me happy. You know how many targets he had against the Jets defense? No. 13. It's a good number. He had 13 targets against the Jets. He had a good game. A good game against the Jets. For a team that scored 16 points, he was 6 for 86. Some signs of life there, I think. Yeah, I mean, Devante Adams is Devante Adams. You start them. 31% of the targets in the three Aiden O'Connell starts. A-chan or Mixing against Baltimore? A-chan. Wow. Henry against Jacksonville or A-chan. A-chan. Okay. Barry Sanders against Steelers.

I'll take Barry Sanders. Okay. He went Barry there. I wouldn't surprise. New York, the Giants, two and eight. Devon. Yeah, go ahead. I don't want to say where he is. You do know that Devon A. Chan is like not going to do that his whole career, right? I obviously know that he cannot possibly score on average 30. But see, that's not what your tattoo says. Right. Devon A. Chan right now is my running back four on the week. So I have no risk it, no biscuit. I'm not benching him. All right. Uh, the so, so who, who would you play? You haven't said a name over him. Uh, Chris McCaffer. We got to find the line. Austin Eckler, Jemir Gibbs. Those three are. Oh, I guess if he's up four, that's the three above him, right? That is it. So you would play him over Montgomery. Yeah. I'm, I'm, I did. That's the message. So bench your ETNs, play your a chance. Man, I, you know, I don't know what I want to happen.

I actually I do because I think I'm facing a chance so I want him to fall in his face and you look stupid but okay but that's for my for me not because I want you to I will I will take the lumps because I recognize the risk you you have a chance of him going out and getting one carry now you used to have him didn't you you shut your evil mouth yes I did and he got injured and I had to make moves oh yeah to get one yeah and I went and I got David Montgomery who then got injured

Anyways. All right. That's he's stupid. It's not fun at all. Yeah, that's what we're pointing out here. Giants 2 and 8, the commanders 4 and 6. The Giants with a 14 point implied point total. Drive King Sportsbook has Washington as 9 point home favorites. The over under is 37. I mean, you know, the giants are the giants are a giant mess. I mean, there's no team. I don't want to cast my eyes upon thy television set. No, you, you, this should be taped delayed. for sure. You brought up at lunch. They should take the lay it and skip the Giants' offensive possessions. Oh, that'd be awesome. I would watch the Manders game if I didn't have to watch the Giants game. The Manders game. Just the Manners on offense. You brought this up because for some reason, I didn't even remember, but Tyrod Taylor's coming back. He will be eligible to return off of IR here shortly. Maybe next week I don't remember the exact timeline.

In the meantime, so things could get better for Wondale, for Saquan. I know we worried a lot about the playoff schedule for Saquan. It's as bad as it gets. And this Giants team is as bad as, genuinely as bad as I've ever seen any NFL team. But this is the Danny DeVito led giants. And that won't be how they finish the season. It should be the Tyrod Taylor led giants who are. far more capable. Danny DeVito shouldn't be in the NFL. He's a penguin. That, I mean, that's, I guess, factually true. Yeah, I'm just speaking facts. The Washington defensive matchup for running backs is really good. So this could be your last hurrah with Sequin. Now, it has been reported, and I saw the game. He did tweak his ankle a little bit in that game, came back out on the field, got a billion more carries, but something to monitor. He was limited on Wednesday.

No sign that he won't be out there. But, I mean, if he wasn't out there, you could drop the Giants to about a zero implied point total. Right. And assuming he is out there, you're going to start him. You know, he's getting 24 opportunities a game, even if they're inefficient, that will add up to fantasy points. On the other side... Yeah, I'm not touching anybody else, though. No Wondale, no Sladen, no Hyatt, no one else. No, thank you. But for the Washington Manders, you've got Sam Howell, who's been on a tear. You saw DAC destroy the Giants last week, and they just kept throwing. I worry that this is like a trap for the receiving game for the Manders and that they'll get to more running if they're up by, you know, 10 points. I do agree with you on that. I mean, it's possible. And we've seen them ignore. Like Sam Hell's having monster fantasy games where, I mean, last week, Terry McLaurin was not a good play.

And John Dodson was a goose. And Sam Howell was a monster. Sam Howell's averaging 40 passing attempts per game. He's been a top 10 quarterback in five of the last six weeks. It's hard to go away from him here. And I don't think you need to go away from him. No, you play him. There is the potential here that they run the ball more than expected. Brian Robinson is a great play. I know you're going to talk about him later. He should be involved on the ground a lot. They haven't been running a ton, but they have been throwing the ball to the running backs.

Dallas, 6 and 3 taken on the 1 and 8 at Carolina Panthers. The Draft King Sportsbook line, Dallas minus 10 and a half. The overrunner is 42 points. Who would, if the Panthers and the Giants were playing, the Danny DeVito Giants, if the Panthers and the penguin giants were playing, who on a neutral field? Panthers win. Yeah, for sure. Yeah. I don't know if you saw, I'm sure you did, but Frank Reich is taking the play calling duties back. Yeah. You know that they scored two offensive touchdowns and 30 drives? once he handed them away. So this could mean good things for Adam Thielen, and they were a better offense when he was calling plays. We just didn't have the context of how bad it could get. Yeah, yeah. We thought, oh, they're not very good. And so let's make a change. And they're like, oh, we were super good. Right. Let's go back. So the Panthers, 10 point home underdogs, 10 and a half point home underdogs. You know, Dallas has been on an absolute heater.

I mean, they are putting up so many points. I don't know if you saw this last week. The reason C.D. Lamb stayed in that game is they were trying to break the record for 10 catches 150 yards. Once they did that, they pulled him. Is there a chance they want to extend that record? My fantasy team hopes so. A lot of people asked, how did I acquire C.D. Lamb this week. Our league is a keeper league. Right. It's very different. So in a redraft, I think he would be nearly impossible to acquire sand. Unless you. I mean, I had people asking me, would you trade Tyree Kill for C.D. Lamb right now in a redraft? Because we went over the fact that Tyree Kill has a terrible playoff schedule, but he's Tyree Kill. And Cid Lamb has the best. And they've been both very good. Like, what would you do? Yeah, it's a great question. That's a cool question. People are asking. You probably stay with what you got. I would stay with Tyree. But the Cowboys, here's Tony Pollard. He can't get it done anywhere against anybody. And then the Panthers are like,

here we are like we're 32nd in the league over the last six weeks against running backs we're 31st on the year we'd love to give you points Tony no one has been more anti Tony Pollard than I have over the last couple of months but you start Tony Pollard this week this is I know last week was a good matchup this week is a great matchup in general if you look at the Panthers they are top three in fantasy if you're just for schedule on the course of the season they are top three in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, to wide receivers, and to tight ends. And the reason that they shut those positions down isn't because they're good. It's because they just can be run on so easily. They are 31st against the run. And so this should be a Tony Pollard game. Here's my counterpoint to that. I think Tony Pollard will be fine in this game. And by fine, I mean double digits for the first time and forever. But the Cowboys have something working. They throw the ball on first day out.

They have elite pass-catching options, and they keep throwing the football. Last week was a really good matchup for Tony Pollard. They didn't run the ball that much. No, and it was shocking. It was shocking to watch them keep throwing the ball, even though they were up. It does make me question this matchup quite a bit. Last week's occurrence where they just kept throwing on the Giants despite a massive lead makes me look at this matchup against Carolina and say, hey, maybe they just do that again. Because if they want to do that, it will work. Carolina is not. top three against these positions because they're great. Right. So it's just a matter of whatever the Cowboys want to do, they're going to do it well. Adam Thielen's still in your lineup? Yes, for sure. Even though it's the Dallas Cowboys, good defense. Thielen's been very, very involved. If you're in a PPR league with Frank Reich taking over play calling duties, he is in. That's the end though. It's Adam Thielen as a like wide receiver two, three option. And then I don't want to play with Chuba.

or definitely not Miles Sanders. You don't want to play the Chuba? No. Do you mess around with Brandon Cooks at all? No, I don't think so. I know he had a monster game last week, and so sometimes you just want to chase those points. But if you look back over the last little while, he's had three touchdowns the last four games, good enough starts. But if you just look at the actual opportunities he's being given, before this 10 week, This 10 target week, he had two targets, four targets, four targets, four targets, four targets, four targets on the previous weeks. It's tough, though, because they, you know, new team, acclamation, nine for 173 is hard to ignore. Would you play Brandon Cooks or any of the Packers wide receivers? I'm chasing. I think I would go Dobbs. Dobbs. Touchdowns. You mean the things that Cooks has had a bunch of? Dobbs has been involved a lot around the.

the red zone. I mean, it's, it's tough. I'm not, I'm not excited to start any of those players. I mean, if there's a tank dell option out there, I'll take them over all of them. Okay. Cooks feels a little bit like the Noah Brown situation from last week that no one wanted to chase, but he might be. Could be. He might be valuable. Anything else from this game you want to discuss? Uh, Fergie's going to be in your lineup. Ferg dad. He's been getting done touchdown in three straight games. What a ride it's been with Fergie. He went from like kind of, uh, hype to, oh, maybe he's not.

the guy to, oh, he's the guy. Mm-hmm, mm-hmm. Tennessee's 3 and 6th, the Jacksonville, Jaguars are 6 and 3, the Draft King Sportsbook line, Jacksonville minus 7, the overrunner is 40. Jacksonville had just a tremendously disgusting performance last week, four turnovers, three points, absolutely destroyed. You know, you are, you've got Houston on the way in this division. Yeah? I think they could easily beat Arizona this week, and, and, um, rise to 6 and 4. If Jacksonville lost, they'd be tied. And the Colts, the Colts are not a bad team. Yeah, and so Trevor Lawrence, we talked about it. You can just send him off to the waiver wire to hang out. This has not been the year you wanted from him. He doesn't give you consistent performances. He doesn't throw for a ton of yards. He doesn't use Calvin Ridley very often. We're not going to have Zay Jones back. We don't think. It's hard, too, because we didn't talk about Travis E.T.N. yesterday.

But as I said, I've looked at every single player's soul over the last week of trade offers. Travis T.T.N. has a couple of things that I would like to look at. He's been one of the best in football. Tons of touchdowns. Tons of touchdowns. He also has dominated bad matchups. He's also been pretty bad against tough matchups. Efficiency-wise, he's been very bad. The last three weeks prior to his down game against San Francisco, he was the running Mac 3, the running back 4, the running back 5. Sounds great. In all three of those matchups, he failed to get to four yards of carry and was pretty much very inefficient. He just got touchdown. And so like Kansas City, he played them. He only scored five fantasy points. Atlanta, he played them. He only scored eight fantasy points. The only matchup he's had that's been difficult. And then San Francisco last week, five fantasy points. The only one he's done well against was New Orleans. But that was a game he had 53 rushing yards. He just scored twice. So.

When you look at the back half of his season, you have to play Sinti. You've got to play Cleveland. You've got to play Baltimore. You've got to play Tampa Bay. Those aren't fun. No. And so I do wonder what his rest of season real, like is it James Connor or E.TN? I know that seems crazy. That seems too. That's a bridge too far. I do agree with your point. I think right now the first half of the season will absolutely be the pinnacle for Travis E.T. And because he has been. So good. He is currently the running back three on the season. If you wanted to look at flipping him in a deal because you think, well, the touchdowns aren't sustainable. I mean, he was literally getting two touchdowns every single week. He's not finishing this season with 34 touchdowns. And so if you want to try to capitalize and sell high and buy low, then I think he could be a very valuable get you a lot type of piece in a trade offer.

Let's talk about the other running back across the field, Derek Henry. Now, Derek Henry this year has done something he just never does, which is he duds. Like you've got a two-point game against Cleveland. You've got a seven-point game against Indianapolis. That seemed like it would have been a home run. You've got a two-point game against Tampa last week on 43% of snaps. In fact, he spends sub-50% of snaps four times this year. Tajay Spears has really eaten into the snap percentage. That being said, when Henry is on the field, he's usually getting the ball. There are games like two weeks ago where he was sub-50% of snaps still carried the ball 17 times. Yeah, no question. It does make it an interesting story for the great end-of-season schedule, though, because, you know, we talked yesterday, Houston, twice. That's always been a smash play for Henry. Houston's suddenly giving up a lot of points to quarterbacks.

different personnel groupings should be really good for Henry, but you are lowering your odds of a guaranteed performance if you're on the field 40-something percent of the time. Yeah, it is. And they're playing for the future to a degree, right? Like Henry is departing. Yeah. So at what point are they eliminated from playoff contention and you start focusing on? developing your younger players. The way that I look at this schedule for the Titans, we talked about this a little bit yesterday, but the Jacksonville matchup is not a great one for Henry. I could see it going poorly again. And if you look at Henry's three bad games, two of those three bad games were against really, really, really, really good run defenses in Tampa Bay and Cleveland. Jacksonville is probably the next best matchup for him to face. And after this week, though, it's the Carolina Panthers. We just talked about how bad they are.