The TRUTH About Fantasy RBs in 2020, Part 1 - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/26

a bust percentage of 13%. Yeah, he had a couple. So he had a higher amount of great games than Alvin Camara did. Camero was more consistent in terms of his total performances on the year. But this is a little bit of like, I mean, they're close enough to where it's what do you want for your team, right? I mean, you might have the kind of team or kind of fantasy.

I don't know, tendencies where you would rather have somebody that can go out like Derek Henry did, and win you week six, when you week 12, when you week 14, all by him by himself. Because he can have that kind of a difference on a single week the way that he's put up 200-yard games. I think when you're looking at great running backs, they can all do that. You remember Aaron Jones last season when he finished as the running back two, but was very inconsistent. Well, Zieg doesn't. He won you many weeks. He hasn't lately, yeah.

Right. But my point is that the great ones have that ability usually to have great games. What I'm looking for is what's the floor? What's the worst you can do? And obviously with the lack of pass catching, that means that his floor is lower. You've got the guys like Alvin Kamera and Dalvin Cook where their floor is high. There's no game script where they are unimportant. They're either the reason they got the lead or the reason they're able to come back. That's it.

It's just such a disparity of style between players like Camara and Derek Henry where you have, we have this refrain that we go back to. No, not pass catcher, not pass catcher. 378 carries to 187 carries. Whatever that special sauce is, that's worth its own discussion. When you go 378 on the ground, you know, you can.

transform that 378 into as many targets as you want in your head for fantasy point production. And he was actually a much better road running back. Oh, the roadrunner. Yeah. Meep. Meep. Thank you. Yeah, we'll see. He's already, he already has taken his animal form so he cannot be the roadrunner. Yeah. And then bottom 16 teams he takes advantage of as well, which, you know, you kind of could see those games coming.

led in the league in attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns for the second consecutive year. There is a stability with Derek Henry that is kind of unmatched. You know, when you're looking, Jason, at next year in the variables you see for Camara, and then everything you know about Derek Henry, you know.

Where do you lean as a fantasy player? What are your tendencies? I hate to say this isn't really a hedge. This is where I am at. He's in the middle between good Camara and bad Camara. So if Taysam Hill is the quarterback, I would definitely take Derek Yeti above Alvin Camara. If Breeze or Stafford is the quarterback, someone that I think could get him the ball a lot in the passing game, then I would take the volume of passing work from Alvin Camara.

Derek Henry is the one. We've said this for a couple years now. He is the outlier. Like, I want a pass catching back or Derek Henry. That's, he's not like other one and two down backs. Obviously, he's, you know, led the league in rushing yards the last couple of years. And he is, you know, every time I scout, we're scouting college prospects right now. And I'm looking at Najee Harris, this awesome, huge, unbelievably talented back from Alabama.

And then I remind myself, he's darn near 20 pounds under Derek Henry. He is a true freak of nature. And I'm happy to draft Derek Henry as high as number three next year. I probably won't, depending on how things fall for Sakewan's health and Cameras quarterback and those type of running backs. But he will absolutely be in the, you know, early first round.

What's your dynasty feel on Derek Henry? He's on his second contract. He is, he just turned 27 years old. He saw, I mean, what were the, what did we quote? 378 carries, 19 receptions. I mean, over 400 touches. He saw similar work last week. Derek Henry, or last year, Derek Henry is an outlier. We have accepted this. But at the same time, when you run the nuclear.

reactor at maximum capacity. Eventually, that thing, it just shuts down. Where are you in terms of, are you, if you have Derek Henry right now, are you looking to trade him and be a couple years too early, or you, you're going to go one more season and then try and trade him? I'll go at least one more season. I might end up going down with the ship with Derek Henry. He's, like you said, an outlier. He also didn't have.

any work on his legs at the beginning of his career because he was behind DeMarco Murray for so many years where he was well rested. So even though he's 27 and that's usually an age for top running backs that I'm going, all right, I'm going to capitalize on this name, on this production and get out before that second contract hits. He's in a unique situation here because of...

how he came into the NFL. This is almost like his first contract. And he's got big, big boy money this next year. At least they can't really get out until after this season. So I will certainly roll with him this year in a dynasty. He feels just with how healthy he's been as well, like you just lock in your position for the next couple of years. You thought he had a big workload last year, 327 opportunities. He had 409 opportunities this year.

2,000 yards, 17 touchdowns. Number three on the list, Dalvin Cook. Dalvin Cook did not bust. Zero bust games. 93% good, 50% great. To me, that's better than both of the previous players. Like on a week-in, week-out basis, I'd rather have Dalvin Cook than either of those guys based on the consistency totals. And the truth is that he was the best runner in football this year for fantasy.

And you only had one game without him. Week six, you didn't have him, and then he had the bi-week, and then he was right back. And right after the by-week, three of those four games was the number one overall running back. Dalvin Cook is unbelievable. And, like, I think we're kind of at the consensus of.

If I have the number one pick, if I'm playing best ball right now, I'm drafting or whatever, and we get into the draft for next year, it's probably still Christian McCaffrey. But Dalvin Cook would be, if you want to make the argument for Dalvin Cook, I will not fight you. I will not stand in your way. I think Dalvin Cook is fine to take at the 101. Yeah, I agree. I think he will be my 102. Ironically, the consistency metrics here, he is number two, but.

Number one was still this year, based on the way that we do the consistency metrics, was Christian McCaffrey, who only had three games, but in all three games was, you know, basically a top five running back. So he was perfect on his sample set. For all intents of purposes, Dalvin Cook was the most consistent running back this year, is in the conversation for one-on-one next year. It's ironic, though, because when you talk about unloading for dynasty, capitalizing on the huge great year, I would...

rather have Derek Henry than Dalvin Cook in a dynasty because I feel like the style and the type of games that they play. We've seen these big explosive high-end running backs, all the Todd Gurley just fall off the cliff eventually. You know, Delvin Cook's only 25. Less touches. I was going to say this, Jason, just throwing it into the conversation. He has less total touches than Camara or Derek Henry on his career. Less work on his body.

I was due to missing games from injury. Sure. That's been part of it. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, the injury history is obviously concerning. But he held up pretty well this year, got some bangs and bruises and played through it other than that week six. Dalman Cook's great. I don't think there's much to say. When you catch the ball and are given the ball in the run game as often as he is, you know, and again.

How many guys can you think of that are truly different at running back? Like other guys can't do it. Dalvin Cook is in that conversation, has to be there. I do, I do have a little tiny bit of worry about losing Gary Kubiak.

who we've seen over the last. That's fair. I think it's a fair concern. The last two years, he is a mastermind a la Kyle Shanahan where he comes in, implements his run system. It always works for every running back and every system that they've ever had. I mean, whoever the backup there wasn't as good as David Cook, but was always, you know, very prolific. And Kubiak now retiring.

That will hurt the run game for the Minnesota Vikings next year. Now, technically, Stifansky was the O.C. when Kubiak was in a different position two years ago. Correct. Defansky moved on and had a lot of success on the ground, too. We'll be interesting to see what happens. Cook at three. Second most evaded tackles, a team that you know their identity is to run the football. Number four, shockingly, surprisingly, incredibly, David Mopportunity.

He's got Running Back 4. He mopped it up at the end. As the running back 4. Here's his finishes to end the year 7th, 1st, 7th, 1st, 9th, 6th. I didn't hear anything lower than 9 in that stretch. Did I catch a 9er in there? Going from a walkie-talkie? Consistency rank of 10. Okay, I get that. You felt that. You knew that. When you start the year.

The way he did caught it. I think he had a touchdown in week two. Otherwise, the first four weeks was really disappointing. But at the end of the day, 67% good games, 33% great, which I'm pretty sure before week 12, it was a 0% number on the year, on his career, it felt like. And then 13% bus games. Look, everything came in. The truth of the day of Montgomery is that you should think of it more in terms of his consistency rank than his fantasy finish. His consistency rank was 10th.

Everything came together for him. This is a team that had, you know, Tariq Cohen, injury, out for the season, no other options. The schedule down the stretch. Yeah, Green Bay, Detroit, Houston. Yeah, this is, sorry, Green Bay, Detroit, Houston, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Green Bay. That's, if you were allowed to handpick your schedule for your fantasy running back to close the year.

You probably would have gone with some sort of puzzle with those pieces. It was a gift from the fantasy gods that the David Montgomery playoffs and end of the season was set up for such success. So I'm with you, Andy. I am, okay, we don't want to just take everything away from David Montgomery. Montgomery looks different on the field. He looked like a much better player than he was.

in his rookie season. So he did seem like he got better. But I'm not drafting him based off this number four finish. I'm not drafting him based off of what he did at the end of the year. He feels, he still feels more like a third round type of a draft pick to me. And when you get the casuals coming in and drafting and they see David Montgomery number four, I don't think he's going to fall there. I think he's going to get overdrafted.

Well, and, you know, there were parts of the beginning of his year that he would have handpicked, Detroit, Atlanta, Carolina. And the thing we used to talk about during the year was, oh, he doesn't take advantage of good matchups. And then all of a sudden he did it to end the year. Much better at home, five points better, much better against bad defenses, the ones we're talking about, six points better. But credit, where credit is due to David Montgomery. Yes. And I think there will be with Nagy there, you know.

Nagy's not blind to what he did. He earned something over the back half of the year that he had yet to earn in the NFL. And I think you have to be realistic with how he entered the season. He entered the season. We thought he was going to be going for the season with his groin. That's true. He amazingly was ready to suit it up week one because they had to have them. They just didn't really have any other running backs. And then, of course, the first month he had three of his first four weeks were.

where he wasn't a top 30 running back, I think things will be brighter for him. And I'm going to be looking this offseason for the offensive line changes. Do they spend capital on the offensive line? Oh, they need to. So bad. Because if they appear to be an offseason winner who made investments there, then I will be willing to be more serious about David Montgomery's breakout in the second half the year. And who's the quarterback?