The “My Guys” Episode! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/20

Half of his games under 5%, all but one under 20%. Oh, wait, until Damian Williams got injured. Oh, but that's fine. Wait, Jay Ajai also needed to get injured. Now, once those guys were injured, Adam Gase was like, all right, fine. I'll use this high drafted rookie that I grab, and they go out, and he dominated 1,100-yard pace, over 50 receptions, over 400 receiving yards, seven touchdown pace with the dolphins. So what do they do? They've got this great back.

Going into the next year, they're going to use them, right? I was excited. People were excited. No, they bring in 35-year-old Frank Gore and make Kenyon Drake the backup. Kenyon Drake only had 179 rushes that year. Is this a pro-Kinion Drake story that's happening, Jason? This is pro-Kin-Drake anti-Adam Gase. These are two of my favorite things to do, and I'm putting them both together here.

he had fewer touches than Frank Gore, who was not efficient or good that year. So I'm saying, you know, the fallacy of rational coaching, Adam Gase is not going to do what we necessarily think. So the question is, okay, what about the Cardinals? 2019 happened. He was traded to the Cardinals, and what did he do other than dominated? I mean, we know what happened. We know the story. He arrived on a Monday. He dominated the 49ers on a Thursday that week.

From that time forward, he was the running back three in fantasy football behind only Derek Henry and Christian McCaffrey, averaging 18.2 fantasy points per game. This offseason is the first off season he has. Three days ago, he was talking about he now understands the why behind Cliff Kingsbury's. Like, he knew the play, but he didn't know why and what the goal was. Now he understands the playbook more. Cliff Kingsbury's talking about we need to get him. He said the main thing.

with Drake this year is any way we can get him the ball in space we're going to try to do. He's hard to tackle one-on-one in space. Look, the Cardinals' offense is going to take a step forward. It's Kyler's year two. It's Cliff Kingsbury's year, too. The offense is going to be great, and Kenyon Drake is the guy? That's the big question, right? We know, we see the talent on the field. Is he actually going to be the guy? Is he going to get the workload this year? If we knew the answer to that question and it was a yes,

King and Drake should be a top five running back. Last year, whoever the running back one was for the Cardinals finished the year as the running back three. So here's the thing. We know that, in fact, it also just came out that they were aiming to go after Kenyon Drake in this past off season if they hadn't have traded for him. They targeted him as their guy. Then they got rid of David Johnson. Then they paid Kenyon Drake $10 million.

He's their guy. They play at such a fast pace that they just don't get the chance to be like, okay, we're going to really split this up 60-40. It's just impossible. Kenyon Drake is being drafted as the RB 11. What's his ceiling? I think his ceiling is RB3, where he finished. I think he absolutely could be a top five back because he's someone that will get north of 50 receptions and, you know, can have 11, 1,200 yards on the ground in a high power offense.

I hope you get your wish. And let me just say this about Chase Edmonds, David Johnson. Because there's a lot. Well, Chase Edmonds undervalue. Right. By me is what he's saying. Right. But yes. There's a lot of Andy saying that. So the end of last season, Chase Edmonds was fully healthy, not on the injury report. After the by week, he was there active. David Johnson, they're active. The entirety of the way. And they, so it's like, I don't understand why there's this.

Why didn't they do it last year if they think he's so good? Well, you had a never mind. I'm not even going to answer. It's a my guy episode. Kenyon Drake, Jason's my guy number one. Mike, let's move on. All right. Ladies and gentlemen, you knew this was going to happen. I had to make it happen. And I truly, truly believe my tight end sleeper of the year, Blake Jarwin, Jarwin season is upon us. He is, look,

He's there with your last pick. And it is... Hold on. Hold on. Are you calling for the Blakeout? Ooh. Ooh. Let me... Oh. Let it simmer. Let it simmer. I need to bring that to a boil, my man. Think about it. Can he blake out this year? Darwin's season. Blakeout season is upon us. Mike's been blaking out all off season. Okay.

I'm breaking this argument down into a couple sections. First, I want to talk about opportunity. Here is the opportunity that was allowed to Jason Witten with Dak Prescott. Now, I get it. Jason Witten, Hall of Fame tied in. He was not a Hall of Fame tight end at the back of the career. Look, he's had a long career. The best days are behind him. And yet still, he averaged with Dak, 88 targets a game.

He averaged finishing the tight end. 88 targets a game. Thank you, Brooks. 88 targets a season. 88 targets a season. He averaged finishing as the tight end 11. This is Jason Witten. And now I get it. The tight end 11 is not great. Jason Witten, like I said, passed his prime because he was putting up 6.6 yards per target. And yet the opportunity was there for Jason Witten last year.

Witten ran the seventh most routes at the tight end position. He was out there. He was out there for opportunity. Thank you, Jason. Now, moving forward to Blake Jarwin, what is available for him? While he's the number one unquestioned number one tight end on this team, they gave him a four-year $22 million deal. He is the guy. With just Jason Witten and Randall Cobb gone,

That's 166 targets that are now available. Dak Press got through for nearly 5,000 yards last year. That's some opportunity that is available to Blake Jarwin, who still received 41 targets last year as the backup tied in. Let's talk about efficiency. 8.9 yards per target for Blake Jarwin. That's a higher yards per target than Mark Andrews, then Hunter Henry, than Noah Fant. When the guy caught the ball,

He made things happen. Yards per route run. So, you know, which is dividing the routes by the yards. 1.82 yards per route run. And I get it that there's not much context for that number. But that's a top 10 number at the tight end position. 21% of Blake Jarwin's routes, he was getting a target. Dak Prescott liked to go to him. Let's talk about big plays.

In his young career, my man, Blake Jarwin, he already has two 40-yard touchdowns. He can make the big play happen. This is not just, you're hoping that in the red zone from the two, they throw it, and the big tight end goes up and gets it. Now, my favorite stat about Blake Jarwin, which maybe it's anecdotal, but it is, it blows me away the names that are on this list. Seven tight ends ever in the history of the NFL have ever had a hundred-yard game.

with three touchdowns. These are the names that are on that list. Rob Grancowski, Antonio Gates, Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharp, Julius Thomas, Algae Crumpler. There is not one slouch on that list. Blake Jarwin is also on that list. Fluky? Maybe. But if it's so easy to do, why have only these tight ends done it, including Blake Jarwin?

He is going at the very end of drafts, unless you're in a draft with me. You're going to have to figure out how you're drafting Blake Jarwin in front of me. I'm not calling for the ceiling. I'm not saying Blake Jarwin is a top three tight end. What I'm saying, a tight end you can get with your last positional pick is going to be a top 10 guy. And I do believe that Blake Jarwin can finish is like a top seven, a top six tight end. So my question here, because obviously we've talked about this, right?

7, 8, 9, 10, 11. They don't help you that much in fantasy, even though they're a tight end one. And obviously, you just outlaid that he could break out. He's running routes. There's vacated targets. He has the talent. I see the path. But what I want to know from you is what do you actually think will happen? Not his range of outcomes. You're making him a my guide.

Where do you think he actually finish his highest probability? The highest probability, like I said, actually he will be a top 10 tight end. Will he be startable every week? Yes. Okay. I think that's one of the bigger markers. Yeah, that's the question. Like I said, I'm not putting him up. He's not George Kittle. I made the joke that he's the next kiddle. Look, that's being hyperbolic. But I believe that you can draft Jarwin and you can start him.

every single week and you don't have to go chase the dragon on the waiver wire hoping you're finding a tight end who comes down with a touchdown. You're putting a guy in your lineup that has the capability of putting up 100 yards and three touchdowns in a single game. The Blakeout. The Blake out. All right. Believe. My second, my guy is a player that seems to be, for whatever reason, forgotten.

He put up 94 receptions for 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns last year. He is being drafted as the wide receiver 15, yet finished last season as the wide receiver 4. His name is Cooper Cup, and nobody seems to care. He finished it 4. I love this pick so, so much. And so I think, you know, we...

When you look at the situation in Los Angeles, the big discussion this offseason has been the switch to 12 personnel, Cooper Cup's experience not being on the outside compared to being a slot wide receiver. The situation that you have, when I looked at this, when I dug into what Sean McVeigh talked about 12 personnel, when I look at what Cooper Cup has done historically, here's the headline. Snap counts are not predictive of Cooper Cup's production.

Snap counts at the end of last year was a product of Sean McVeigh giving his wide receivers who he uses as fullbacks in the running game so often a break at the end of the year. He put Johnny Munt tight end on the other side of Tyler Higby on the field for 70% of snaps during those 12 personnel-centric games. Who? Yes. That's what I wanted to know when I saw that.

Johnny Munt. No disrespect, Mr. Munt. I'm just not familiar with your work. Sean McVeigh made a decision because he came out and said, look, we use our tight ends, Josh Reynolds, Cooper Cup, Robert Woods, like fullbacks on our run design plays. We said, you know what? Let's let Johnny Munt take a few hits instead of Cooper Cup at the end of the year because he came out and he said this. He said, then our wide receiver stays sharper. Cooper Cubs biggest bus games last year?

98% snap count games. Cooper Cup's biggest week winning breakout, 67%, 72%, 71%. It's not, when they want to go run heavy, when they do it, they schemed wide receivers off the field. Brandon Cooks and Cooper Cup at the end of the year. They put Higby on the field. They put Munt on the field. Cooper Cup, 2018 pace for Cooper Cup. That was the year he got hurt, but he played more than half the season. Sure. 80 for 1100 and 12. Cooper Cup's result last year.

94 for 1110. He gets targeted in the red zone, more than anyone in football not named Michael Thomas and Keenan Allen with 23 red zone targets, go-to wide receiver, number one in touchdowns last year, elite route runner, elite after the catch. The teams lost 70 receptions between Brandon Cooks and Todd Gurley going into this year.

I think Cooper Cups is much of a lock for double-digit touchdowns as anybody in fantasy football. And, Mike, you've brought this point up over and over again, the absolutely abnormal touchdown percentage for Jared Gough last year. 626 passing attempts in the Los Angeles offense. Who are your weapons? Robert Woods? Robert Woods. Cooper Cup? Yeah. Gerald, Tyler Higby. You know, 22 touchdowns on 626 pass attempts last year. Anomalous. Yeah, it's way too low. Cup could have easily had 12.

14, 15 touchdowns in this offense last year if those numbers regulated to the mean. And the end of the result here is Sean McVeigh is an offensive mastermind. He uses his weapons. That's why he's a mastermind in this offense. Cooper Cup's the biggest weapon. And I'm just shocked that a wide receiver 4 is going as the wide receiver 15 right now. The thing with me for Cooper Cup, he is lower in my projections. Yeah, big disparity. And I've...

Look, I've been asked, okay, who's the guy that you're, you've got him ranked low, that you're willing to lose them. And you're, well, your most, uh, your most paranoid is going to make you look the fool. And it's Cooper Cup. Like, I, I, I love the player. He is production has, it speaks for itself. I'm just, you know, I'm taking my shot on what I, I believe the Rams are turning into, but Cooper Cup could make me look the fool. Absolutely.