Tough Decisions + Regress or Impress, Jason Gets Philosophical - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/18

But he was. And he's gone. And Henry Ruggs, so I've gone back and watched every snap from Henry Rugg's rookie season. And it's one of those things where, so let me, let me ask you this. Philosophical question time. Oh, when you're watching. What was that voice? That wasn't me. That was the, uh, that was, uh, so crates. That was the, uh, so crates. Um, when you're watching film and you see a wide receiver always getting open.

and not really having a good connection with the quarterback. Do you just credit the wide receiver and say, oh, man, if he got it, you know, because sometimes I feel like, well, it, you know, wide receivers that are constantly missed by the quarterback, I feel like that has to be sometimes on the wide receiver, because over doing this long enough, it just seems like, now are you talking there?

getting open and they're getting missed as in the target is missing them? The target is missing them because that's what I saw a lot with Henry Ruggs. He looked good. He was getting open. The opportunity is going to be there. They did not add wide receivers. I mean, they got John Brown. That's it. They didn't draft any wide receivers of note. And they want their early first round pick last year to take that step forward. So I think he is a late round dart throw that I'm fine taking a shot on.

The opportunity is there. The talent was there. If he actually gets better, then why couldn't he end up being an important fantasy option this year? What's so wild about it is, I mean, according to PFF, Derek Carr has the second highest grade on deep passes. That's what I'm talking about. It's like, Derek Carr is not a bad quarterback. But for some reason, those two are connected, it's like they're just out of sync a little bit. That's how I.

I viewed it. All right. I mean, and you're right that that's a big target share that could be moved around. It was, I mean, it was bizarre that you had, and you also had Hunter Renfro pulling in like 15% of the targets last year. I mean, both Henry Ruggs and Brian Edwards were really not factors in the offense. At all. But here's the really nice thing about it is because of that,

The combination of it being Derek Carr, which people don't like, and a complete bust of a rookie season, Rugs is not going to be drafted early. Nobody wants to be the guy drafting Rugs this year and being, oh, how do you do last year? So if you can, I mean, what better pick for a late round double digit wide receiver than someone with that level of upside versus some, you know, older veteran who's going to probably sit on your bench and never do anything?

All right. Our next question is from off of Instagram, Stanton Carter, which running back field is the hardest to predict this year besides Buffalo? Well, that one's easy. It's 6A and 6B. Oh, we're down to 6? Well, like I put them into the NFL. It wasn't JV anymore. So in the NFL, they were like 6A and 6B. Difficult backfields to project.

I will say everything is hard to protect on the Patriots. Do you just have it being Harris? I'm into Damien, man. I'm in on that. But the Jets is difficult to decipher right now because they brought in Tevin Coleman. They drafted Michael Carter, but they didn't draft him until the fourth round. Le Michael P. Rhine is...

theoretically, technically the veteran running back on the team, so theoretically would have the first crack at being the starter, but you have no clue how it's going to break up. The San Francisco system essentially is coming over with Mike LaFleur. Is that just going to break it up into a three running back crew? I mean, it's very difficult to figure out what's going on there.

I think it'll be a hodgepodge. The one that comes to mind for me, and it's because of, like, what I think's going to happen versus what I desire to happen is the Denver Broncos. Because you've got Melvin Gordon. Dude, they're so low in my rankings, and I hate it. Yeah, and it's like, I hate it. I mean, obviously he's paid a lot of money. He's their three-down guy, but then they traded up to get Giovante Williams. And they signed Boone, who they just came out talking about how, like, oh, he's going to be involved, too. So.

This is probably going to be an uglier season for all three of those guys than we want it to be barring injury. You know, Melvin Gordon is not going to get enough work to be as good as he was last year, and he wasn't great last year. Giovante's not going to get enough work to be really relevant until maybe the end of the season if something happens. And then Boone is irrelevant. He's just there to take carries from others.

This one's from Nick Larson off of Instagram. Who is a running back in the later rounds that you are confident with? Confident with in the later rounds. Is that possible? Confidence. It definitely is possible. Running backs that you are confident in are usually in the earlier rounds. How late are we talking? Like David Johnson to me is someone that I think will continue to drop. Nobody wants a Texan. The, the.

Room got murky with marking room there. But I am confident that it is his role. I'm confident that he will have the majority of the work there. And that's, again, like, I don't really want David Johnson on my team because I don't think the offense is going to be that good. But he could end up, you know, being close to a leader in receiving for that team. Someone who I am quite confident. I don't know where he's going because I don't have his ADP in front of me. But it is.

it is another quadzilla. It is A.J. Dillon in Green Bay because Aaron Jones is the guy. But number one, Aaron Jones has not been able to stay healthy. Number two, Jamal Williams was a factor in the offense when it was Aaron Jones and Jamal. There was a little bit of work there that A.J. Dillon could just walk right into. And then the other thing, Jay, when I'm going through all these stats, you know, and you're starting off of a presuming health.

a great, not a great, that's the wrong word, but a just a productive season trying to figure out, if this guy hit 17 games, what does that look like? But the problem I've been running into is the thought of, are we really going to see anybody, especially at the running back position, even someone like Christian McCaffrey, if he can stay healthy for 17 games, is the team really going to give that workload to one person?

When you have a whole extra game, you don't have another buy week. Is this going to be a really frustrating thing where just randomly you'll see starters get pulled essentially that, like, oh, well, this game is going well, we think we can kind of rest our starter a little bit more than normal. Have you encountered any of that thought process this year?

I haven't. I don't think that the extra game is going to change a coach's philosophy of how they want to play football. I don't think Tomlin, who wants that three-down back is going to think, well, there's one extra game this year. I'm going to change how I do it. And on the flip side, there's coaches that already have a complete committee, and that shouldn't make a difference. So I haven't found it making any adjustments in the way that I'm statting people out. It is the one thought I do have, though. And while you were talking, I was like,

Man, you say, if they make it to 17 games, ain't nobody making it. Like running back, it's just crazy. Last year, two running backs in the top 20 made it 16 games. That's it. It was, I think, Naim Hines and Derek Henry. So, yeah, it doesn't happen. One more name to throw out. I thought Henry missed the game. You might be right, but I usually am, so you can vet that. How dare you? Now I have to look it up.

And here's another name while you looked that up. I don't know. He didn't. He missed the game two years ago, though. Dang it. Wait. No, two years. I was thinking of two years ago. So he did play 16. Yes. Okay. You got it. You were. Yes, the computer. Yeah. Mike Davis. I still think he'll be not a late round guy, but certainly within running backs. Nobody's going to be drafting him over, you know, good, productive running. I think Mike Davis has a great season. Obviously.

TBD, it could change after, I mean, I see a world where Julio's gone post, you know, June 1st, and then when Cap Room opens up, they go and try to make an offer on some player to add to that backfield. But as of right now, Mike Davis looks like he's going to have a great season. I'm going to throw to another voicemail, a very interesting topic. Michael Thomas. What's up, guys? My name's Cody. I'm calling from Florida, big fan of the show.

My question for you is for a dynasty, what do you think you value Michael Thomas at right now? What do you think he could possibly get for him in terms of draft picks or players? Let me know. Big fan. Michael Thomas? 28-year-old Michael Thomas, who might have a starting quarterback? We do not know. How are you valuing Michael Thomas? So...

I think Michael Thomas is going to be excellent in fantasy this year. I think he's going to be great with either wide receiver. I think he's got at least three more seasons of very, very high-level production. He's going to be what he was almost the majority, the entirety, I should say, of his career. He had the one outlier season where he was the wide receiver one, was unfathomable, broke NFL records.

But usually since he's coming to the league, he's like wide receiver 6, 7, 8, 9. You know, he's a wide receiver 1. He's just not the dominant, most dominant guy. I think you're going to get that for the next three years. So I value him quite highly. I doubt right now that you can get enough for him in a dynasty league. I agree. If you can, like if you can, if you, you know, every league is different. It's just a matter of.

the individuals in your league and will they value that player. I'm willing to shop Michael Thomas. And if I can get multiple firsts and a young prospect, I'd be willing to look at that depending on my team. I just don't think you're going to get a big haul, in which case, I'd just hold them and have them dominate, you know, on Sundays. Two firsts and Devante Smith. Oh, I would take that deal. You would take? I would take two first and Devonte Smith. One first and Devonte Smith. I'm going to ask for another first place.

If you have forgotten, Michael Thomas, we didn't forget he was hurt. But when he came back, in that stretch of six games, he was averaging over six receptions, over 70 receiving yards. And like, you're talking Taysam Hill is in there for a good amount. And that was not even full Michael Thomas. He forced himself back on the field to try and help Drew Brees in what they knew was his final year. And then.

that he couldn't finish. He had to miss three games so they'd rest up for the playoffs. Oh man, come on, Winston. Come on, Winston win their job. So a gut check. Right now. Tayson. Is Tayson for you? I've got Tayson winning the job, but because they've still got a good defense and they can win more games with Tayson than they can with James Winston, assuming that Winston has not changed his ways when it comes to turning the ball over.

I statted James. Good. I'm glad you did because I believe Andy is going to taste him. I'm going to taste him. Someone needs to go to James so that we can actually see if, I mean, because it makes a big difference, right? Like the passing volume will be much higher with James Winston. You've got to keep throwing after those turnovers. You know what I mean? From Instagram, Fantasy Front Office. What is your go-to game day snack? Oh, man. Ha. And just one reminder, Jason, we.

We have a time threshold here. Yeah, I mean. Hell. Yeah. All right. Well, the shows can last a whole lot longer than this. So let's go. One go-to snack. Is pizza a snack? It depends on how you look at it. Honestly, I think that's a big problem for me. I think I view pizza as a snack. Like, oh, I'm not really like you. It's not lunchtime, but there's some cold pizza in the fridge. I'll just snack on that. What other...

Entries do you view as a snack? Ooh, sliders are a snack. Okay. Define, how big does a slider have to get before it makes the jump? It's just a small bun. Wait, small bun? Small bun. So if you had like a tiny patty with a big bun. That's a burger. That's a crappy burger. But if you've got a full size bun, that's a burger. It's the size of the bun? 100%. I had no idea. Yeah, I mean, do, do, do the more you know.

And what if you got a third pounder and you got a tiny little bun? That's a big slider, man. That's a good slider. It's like a man in a funny top hat. Oh, man. That, to me, is a great snack. And then would you, would you eat the meat edge off? You have to eat the meat edge off first.