Fantasy Football - Top 10 QB Rankings + Listener League is Back! - Podcast for 8/4

Yeah, I mean... Have he seen him throwing? I still... 45% was also his completion percentage. This is a very, very difficult thing to say on the record because it sounds dumb and I'm always willing to sound dumb. I still believe Anthony Richardson can develop into a good NFL quarterback, not just fantasy. I think he can actually become a good quarterback where five years from now, you know, he's just... He's in the MVP race. The development has to happen now, though. Oh, for sure. It has to be in the next eight weeks. Yeah, he's not going to get two more years to keep trying. And it took Josh Allen, what, into his third season before he? Is that when he got Stefan Diggs? Second. Oh, is it his second? Or maybe he stepped up in fantasy in the second year and got, got Diggs in the third year. I want to say it was the third year. But I mean, that is not, there are, there are infinitely more.

Deshawn Kaiser's and Marcus Mario. There's one Josh Allen. There's one Josh Allen. So I don't want that to be the standard. But that can be the hope. We can do that. All right. Let's kick it off. Number 10. Baker Mayfield. Laser. All right. Look, we have a humongous disparity in our personal rankings that I did not realize until this moment in time. I have them at six. Jason at 13. Mike at 14. He was, he's being drafted as the QB7. I have said it and I guess I'll say it again. I am totally comfortable with seventh round Baker Mayfield every week starter Baker Mayfield. We've talked ad nauseum about our views on his history versus his recent history. I love him. Egbuka. You got Evans, Godwin, McMillan, Otten, White, Irving, who had an impressive camp, wheel route, diving, catch the other day. You can catch the football.

Look, I just love their offense. I love the new baker. This is the quarterback three last year, quarterback 10 the year before. I see them right in the middle of that. That's why I got them at six. I don't think last year's touchdowns are going to be easily repeatable, but I do think 35-ish is in the range of outcomes, and I just love the offense. So, you know, last year was very, very special. He was the third player in NFL history with 4,500 plus yards, 40 plus touchdowns, and over a 70% completion percentage. Just magical. Like that is also like part of my ammo for the, this is a different player than we saw early in his career because you just, you cannot accomplish that over 17 weeks with the Baker we saw the first three or four, five years in Cleveland and, you know, the Carolina camp and all of that. So it's a, at number 10.

you know, maybe we balance out. Yeah, we do. You know, I've got him at number nine in six point passing. That's right. That's right. This is four point per passing touchdown because he's not a super mobile rushing quarterback. Last year, 378 rushing yards. That was awesome. That's why he really propelled up to number three. But that is the outlier and that is not a system thing. Like maybe he leveled up as a passer. He leveled up in this system. He's gotten used to his weapons in Tampa Bay. I can. totally agree with the argument that as a passer, he's just better. He's not old Baker career stats, but there's no way that at this age he just leveled up as a rushing, you know, he didn't rush more. He had more rushing attempts two years ago, and he's always been like 150, 160 yards, and all of a sudden he had 378, so many breakaway runs. That's not going to repeat in my opinion. And so I also think, look, Egbuka's awesome. He is,

You know, I said I think he's the best wide receiver in this draft class, not necessarily for fantasy because I don't think he's got the Tet McMillan type of upside. But just as far as an NFL wide receiver, he is so good. But he's not as good as veteran Chris Godwin as a current rookie. And Chris Godwin might be hampered. So I don't know that the beginning of the year is really better weapons for Baker this year than last year. I think Igbuka could be the most productive. rookie wide receiver. I actually believe it's possible. But one of the question marks around the team is a new offensive coordinator. They've come out and he's made comments about basically small tweaks to an existing working system, which is what we've expected. Has Baker ever had? Baker's always had to deal with this. Has he ever had the same coordinator two years in a row? I genuinely don't know if he ever has. I'm not sure if he has or not. He might have, but it was probably a coordinator that should have been fired.

in Cleveland. But he went from Canales to Cohen to Grizzard now, who is making small tweaks to an established offense. Is that how he prefers it? He prefers Grizzard. Yeah, I think he prefers how. Yeah. Josh Grizzly. Yeah. But last year, I mean, fourth and points per game, third and yards per game, an amazing offense. And again, the chance you're taking with other quarterbacks is not the one that Baker represents. To me, he's not a huge risk. I would agree with that. I don't see him having a monumental upside. So it's about where he is in the draft. You're comfortable grabbing him in the seventh round. I think I prefer some of the other players that are there. And I think I prefer some of the quarterbacks that go a little bit later than him. But I also do not believe that if you draft Baker in the seventh, that's going to crush your ability to win in fantasy. He's a good quarterback. He's going to be probably a low-end.

quarterback one in six-point passing touchdown leagues. Well, here's one last bit I want to mention because I'm looking at the consistency percentages in the UDK. And so we have consistency charts that chart out players. We give you consistency grades, but the consistency percentages chart actually breaks down the percentage of time that a player finishes the week as quarterback 1 through 6, 7 through 12, right? So you look at that. Last year, there's only two players that did 50% of the time. Lamar and him? Lamar and Baker. The next closest is 38%. Burrow, Allen. He was so consistent. I mean, Jane Daniels, just to give you perspective on how good of a year he had, because certain weeks were amazing week-winning weeks. Jane Daniels was 33% of the time as the top six quarterback on a week. So that just speaks so much to what he was capable of doing. 50% of the time, him and Lamar are the only ones. All right, moving on. Number nine. Dak Prescott.

I love Dak Prescott this year, but I'm scared about the beginning. I'm, you know, I'm very confident that they won't be able to run the ball well. Exactly. But I'm not. What if Michael Parsons is traded? That would be good for their offense. Yes. But their defense took a huge step back last year and Dak obviously only played eight games. He has not, I guess he's played one full season in the last five. Is that true? Yes. Yes. He played 16 games in 2021. Oh, okay. All right. So we'll call that a full season. Okay. So he's played a full season to, he's the, he's McAfree of the quarterback position. Right. Sort of. I mean, he really is. Two out of the last five years, he's been great for fantasy. Yep. Very helpful. Help people win. And the other three has been injured. That is it. That's identical to McCaffrey. Yeah. So, you know, he was a league winning quarterback in 2023. I hate that because it was your quarterback. Yeah, it was great. And C.D. Lamb, George Pickens.

Ferguson just signed a new contract. Dallas plays faster. In the last two years, they played very fast. Number five in plays per game. That matters. Seventh and red zone plays per game, fifth and points per game. All of those things really matter. Now, the offensive line is not what it once was when DAC was kind of a perennial finisher. I mean, part of getting hurt, too, is that protection on the offensive line. And I am worried about that. But just for the haters who think I hate Dallas, I mean, I've got DAC at seven and four point. That's the highest of the three of us. So, you know, that's how it should play out. But you are taking some risks with DAC from a health standpoint. And even the year, I want to mention this, even the year in 2023 where he finished a quarterback three and won championships. He was not startable at the beginning of that. Oh, no. That's what I mean. He got off to such a bad start. I think this season is going to be good.

But I worry about the start again this year. He's got a brutal opening schedule. Philly in Philly, the Giants and that defense, Chicago and then Green Bay. Yeah, and I believe it's one or two more weeks. I think it's the Jets after that. That's from memory. I don't have the schedule in front of me. It's not good from a passing defenses scheduled to open the year. But I also think he has never been set up quite as well. Like George as his wide receiver two is a monstrous upgrade. It's really valuable to him to have someone else to open up the field to. He's a good quarterback. He's literally never not been a quarterback one without a season-ending injury in his entire career. So I believe with a bad defense, no running game, and his, you know, upgraded receiving weapons, he's set up to succeed. I will say this, though. If you look at last year, he was not going to be at top.

quarterback that's why he got injured he's like i got to keep i was going to say that's a good way out but you know it was a bad run i mean he had he had a number one overall game against baltimore in week three but outside of that twenty two fifteen eleven twelve twenty eight eighteen twenty two and these are games against you know atlanta new orleans he was the middle of the pack so even with uh i know george represents a lot to you guys but it was not With the offensive line issues, I think you might have seen a little bit of a prequel last year. That's my worry about him. Let's talk about somebody else we constantly worry about. Number eight. Kyler, Kyler Murray. I hate talking about Kyler. Yes, Kyler. As a Cardinal fan, that's why. Kyler is, I would say, three years into, he's been frustrating for fantasy players for three straight years. Yeah.

He sucked last year. He was the quarterback 10. He finished as the quarterback 10. But if you had to watch him play football, it was 20 in your heart. Maddening. He was a C and consistency. He would have great games, look awesome. And then the next week, it's like, I don't know, man. I don't know if it's the call of duty thing. I'm pretty worried about Kyler because I don't. I think the team learned a little bit of a recipe last year. Run the ball. And I think. You know, James Connor, we didn't mention it in the news, James Connor coming out talking about him and Trey Benson being RB-1s together. If you listen to the offensive coordinator and head coach, they don't seem to think that's the way it's going to be, but they are going to commit to the run. They've got a defense that has a chance to take a step forward. And the one thing that concerns me, and this is somebody, you know, I like Marvin a lot this year for the value. But why do I worry about Marvin? I don't worry about Marvin for his talent, ability, route running, physicality, any of it. I think Marvin,

is more than capable of a huge season. I worry about Kyler. I worry about, you rarely see Kyler get into kind of that flow state as a quarterback and go back to back to the same wide receiver. It's been a while since we've seen that level of effectiveness. You can go back to Hopkins, basically. He had it going with Hopkins, but it's been a minute. Yeah, it has. That being said, his draft price reflects the frustration of the last few years. He finished as the quarterback 10 last year in what we think was a bad year. He didn't have a good receiving core, and obviously rookie Marvin Harrison wasn't ready. Rookie Marvin Harrison looks pretty darn good in camp. He's bulked up in size. He's catching everything. Scott McBride out there. And so when you're telling me he's two rounds, almost three rounds later than Baker Mayfield.

And he runs, and Kyler's been on the record this offseason saying he watched Lamar and he realizes he really needs to run the ball more, which is awesome for fantasy. You can see a path where Kyler could be a top five fantasy quarterback this year. I see him already done it. A round and a half ahead of Baker. Behind Baker. Behind, yeah. You said two or three rounds. I was just clarifying. I see him at the 8-11, so like almost the ninth round. So maybe different ADP sources. So to me, the value on Kyler as a later quarterback who is mobile and if things click, if he does run the ball more, he's got the ability to. Like if Kyler, as a Cardinal fan, we have, I think, for years been like, why don't you run the ball more? It's like his superpower and he doesn't use it the way that Lamar uses his, the way that, you know, and it's not like Lamar is.

Josh Allen or Jalen hurts one of these big humongous guys. He's taken hits. Kyler's always been afraid of the hits. It was the second highest rushing total in his career last year. But I don't expect anything to fundamentally change about Kyler seven years in. Yeah, we know. We know he's not a world beater. He's not going to be, you know, the MVP of the league. So I don't know. Are you fine drafting Kyler where he's going? You'd rather have Baker in the 7th. I don't think I'm drafting Kyle very often, no. I'd rather have Baker around and a half earlier, and I'd rather take shots on players that like Jordan Love, Bo Nix. No, I don't like, because I think I know Arizona, and I think I know Arizona wants to manage it. They're not going to win it through the air very often. It is worth pointing out their draft this year.

I believe they drafted one offensive lineman in the third or fourth round, and every other pick was defense. Every single thing. What they did in the free agency was go and sign Callais Campbell and sweat. You're 100% right. What they desire to do is to be a defensive team. Well, I mean, look, outside of Marvin Harrison, who are your wide receivers? Zay Jones gets talked about right now. Love Zay Jones at camp. That should tell you where they're at. Michael Wilson banged up. He's your number two. So it is just. Trey McBride, but yeah. Yeah, I just meant like no new additions. You know, this is the same group that they're running out there. Moving on, though, bigger name. Number seven. Patrick Mahomes. Big name. It looks like I'm the lowest in four point on Patrick Mahomes at 11. I wish it was me. I don't like having them at seven. I'll be honest. This is the most undraftable quarterback in our list. I am not drafting Patrick Mahomes.

in the six round. I'm not doing that. Patrick Mahomes. I can wait around and get, and get Baker. This is where you need context. 11% of the time last year, Patrick Mahomes had a quarterback one to six finish. His consistent would be one game. His consistency percentage was rated in F. He was. How low does our scale go though? It's F is the lowest. We don't give out F minuses. If we did Patrick Mahomes would have it. And here's the craziest part. Patrick Mahomes was the quarterback 11 last year. Okay, so at the end of the year, he's going to have enough stats accumulated to have a decent season. It's very, we've talked about in the past. Philip Rivers did this year after year after year after year. He'd play the whole season. He'd throw enough. You know, he's going to throw the ball a ton, a lot of screens, a lot of dink and dunks, and Philip Rivers would finish as the quarterback 11, quarterback 8, quarterback 10. But you cannot.

pick them and play them every week to have happiness and success. And so I still think that's where Mahomes is at right now. They've talked about wanting to throw the ball down the field more, but I don't know that they really are going to do that. Now you don't have Rashi Rice for maybe eight weeks. Yeah. That hurts the upside case for Mahomes as well. For sure. So, yeah, I mean, Mahomes. is the cheapest that you can ever get him. And when you leave your draft, you're going to like your team more than you should. Because of how it looks with that name. Yeah. You're going to be like, oh, my quarterback is locked in. If Mahomes has a magical season. And I do think Mahomes will get it together. Like, by the time he retires, I think he'll have more seasons in his future with...

really good fantasy finishes, you know, where he's where he is top five. It doesn't appear to be this year with the oldest yet Travis Kelsey, a suspended Rushie Rice. He just doesn't have the weapons. And the defense is really, really good. Since 2018, he's returned his draft cost one time. So that, that tells you where we are. Don't draft. With Mahomes. Number six. Bo Nix number six. This one is wild. If you look back a year ago, I thought that we could be ranking Bonix ahead of Patrick Baham's. At number six, 25 years old on a Denver team that is pretty exciting. I mean, he did finish ahead of Patrick Mahomes last year. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, 29 passing touchdowns on the year. Second most ever for a rookie quarterback. Cortland Sutton's locked up. They have a bunch of versatile wide receiver talent beyond Cortland Sutton.

It was a really impressive year. If you want to look for red flags, most batted balls on the entire year, tied with Gino. Fourth highest checkdown rate, so taking easier, like he was completing easier passes, 60% of his targets were less than 10 yards. I mean, it's very Drew Brees, right? It's the Sean Payton assistant. Drew Brees was always batted down at the line because you get the ball out quick, except now you've got someone who's a dual threat. And that's why I love Bo Nix is because he can, you know, he rushed the ball 92 times last year. That's an incredible number. And he's got the wheels to be able to do it 430 yards. So you're getting a late quarterback who last year finishes the quarterback seven, despite the first month of the season. You know, he was reined in. He was a brand new rookie. Like those first four weeks, the split from there.

from how they utilized him the rest of the season. You're talking about the first four weeks would have been a pace of 2,800 passing yards to the rest of the season would have been a pace of 4,000 passing yards. Yeah, I mean, it is definitely, I think, I think you're not going to be happy if he doesn't take a step forward or at least continue that second half pace like you're talking about. I mean, you need him to take a step forward to be drafted, you know. Are you going to be happy? You want Baker at the top of the seventh? You want Bo at the back. You've been a Bo Knicks guy. I've been the Baker guy in that round. I think Baker is the safer option. Baker is not going to come out and fall on his face for fantasy completely. Bo Nix could absolutely fall on his face. He could see J. Stroud? But yeah, he could see J. Stroud. The running game could work better.

So he's a riskier pick, but I still think I would rather have him. He is rushing upside the fact that he could level up as, you know, as a... The difference in fantasy you look last year between Jaden Daniels and Bo Nix is not as drastic as you think, but you look at where Jaden Daniels is being drafted and where Bo Nix is being drafted, it is vastly different. So I'll take the shot on Bo Nix. He's a perfect quarterback to pair with another risky, you know, Anthony Richardson later and just hope that you see that... year two step forward, not step back in a great system with weapons. And, you know, the fact that now he's got someone to check the ball down to and the receipt, he passed a lot of passes to Giovante Williams, who then did jack squat with it. And now RJ Harvey out of the backfield as a pass catcher, I think will be really tremendous. And Evan Ingram has arrived. Yeah. Who you hate. We'll take a break. We'll get into the top five. This episode is brought to you by prize picks. Preseason football is underway.

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five dollar lineup prize picks run your game i will say this about bo nix if he ends up if this is a solid fantasy or this is household name territory at this point you know what i mean like if he if he goes out there and the and the broncos perform because they're you know they're one of those teams that's like a little bit of a dark horse super bowl threat i think with that defense and and bo nix and you know you're talking about kind of a stalwart and fantasy for a decade to come if he can go out there and do it in year two all right moving on

Number five. Jaden Daniels comes in at number five after the five overall finish as a rookie, that rushing number that he's able to put up. It's a great weekly floor. You've got those numbers at the top of the show. You know, the top quarterback has 20 plus percent of their fantasy points coming from rushing the football. That puts them in contention to finish at our or at quarterback one. Yeah. QB.R.B. 1. So, you know, we know what. he brings to the table the schedule's going to get a little more difficult this year but i mean the top tier finishes that you get from him 38% of the time i hope terry comes back yeah i mean the the the trade demand from terran matters a lot for jaden daniels as of right now we believe terran will sign a contract with the commanders and you know and then it won't matter and if that happens you're talking about a pretty good upgrade here

to his weapons adding Debo Samuel. You know, he really did not have another player to throw the ball to last year. Hopefully Ben Sennett can also step forward and you like Jalen Lane. I do. I think Jalen Lane is a name that we haven't brought up enough. He's a rookie coming in. Really talented has looked good in camp. So that's that's certainly a name worth. talking about when we talk about uh jaden daniels yep zackert still in the mix around the goal line where he was very effective last year and uh you know the potential is there for for jaden daniels to cement himself again just like bo necks is the next uh

fantasy star for the 10 years everything that I was talking about with Kyler where it's like I want him to take off and run whenever there's that that little blink moment of oh there's open field I could just go get the first down right now Jaden Daniels does that I salivate at Bo Nix's 92 rushing attempts that's awesome Jaden Daniels had 148 rushing attempts and it's not all because of designed runs it's because oh look field Watch what I can do over and over and over. So he is a risky pick for those top guys because he costs a lot. But I don't think Bo Nix has overall quarterback one potential this year. Jayden could easily do that. He's a, he is the quarterback three off the board though in the third round. We have him ranked at five. So from a value perspective, that's where you need to look at the upside meter in the UDK and combine that with the ranking. Yeah.

Number four. Joe Burrow comes in at number four. You know, we saw it all out there last season, no defense, everything in his hands, utilizing Chase Brown like Austin Echler, Jamar Chase with the Triple Crown season, T. Higgins, Jamar Chase back on the contracts. I don't know what to do. Number one quarterback. I don't know what to do with him. What was that sentence? I don't know what to do with Joe Burrow. When I finished my... initial pass at my rankings. Do you know where Joe Burrow was for me? I think very high. How about quarterback one? Which is what he was from week nine on last year. Yeah. I mean, this is maybe the best quarterback in the NFL combined with a bad defense and the best weapons. He is what Mahomes used to have to be. Exactly. That's what he is right now. He's in the Mahomes phase of his career where you're...

250 plus three touchdowns every week, no matter what. And what's funny is Joe Burroughs never had an offseason. You go back, literally, this is the first time Joe Burrow has been healthy during an off season and during the training camp time. Ever. Ever. This is the first time it's ever happened. And he's going into year six. So that's pretty wild. Yeah. And they, and they, uh, I think the, I think the Patrick Mahomes thing you're bringing up is a really good way to look at it. Like if you were to, it makes me more comfortable with him. It does. If, if you were to swap.

Mahomes and Burrow right now. Teams. I would love Patrick Mahomes. If you're telling me he's playing on a team with no defense and he's got T. Higgins and Jamar Chase and Chase and Chase Brown out of the backfield, go get him. That's what Joe Burrow is right now. And so I fourth round, QB4. I had to lower him in my rankings because I would never take him personally over the four. Runners. And I just don't like spending. I mean, you look at Baker versus Joe Burrow and you go, okay, what's the gap there? Baker just threw for, you know, 40 touchdowns and well over 4,000 yards is very similar to Burrow. The problem of putting Burrow on your team right now is that Jalen Hertz is a fourth round pick two. Yeah. And, you know, you ended up with Jalen Hertz in your most recent mock. And I took them over Joe Burrow and I did that with T. Higgins on the roster.