Fantasy Football - The Overreaction Episode! + Pickens Trade Reaction - Podcast for 5/8

Welcome to the fantasy footballers podcast with your host, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright. Welcome in. Throat's clear today, Jay? Yeah, no, I'm doing well. All right. I forgot about that. Only one man can just music is in his veins. It's like a coughing scat. Oh, that's a good idea for this footballers. Thank you. All right. Thursday, May 8th, the fantasy footballers. Are you just going to cough? You know it. You just gave me permission. Welcome into today's podcast, Mike Wright. The fantasy hitman is here. Jason Moore, present and accounted for. I'm Andy Holloway. Got a Deucers Alley full of Deucers. Producers. Yep.

And we have a good show for you today. We have overreactions for 2025. We're going to talk about, I think, basically two each. We'll talk about some overreactions we think might happen. We do have news. We got big news. Yes, we do. Big news to talk about. And you can. You are forgiven. Yeah. I think there's more people going to be on my side now. I think you're right. And we would be talking about George Pickens and we'll get into the. The big trade, Mike had just talked about him erroneously on the last show. Nobody agreed with him. You sound so foolish now if you listen to that episode. Yeah. But he knew what was coming. Yeah. He's a very wise way. Yeah, I talked exactly about how I think the trade is not going to happen anymore. You did. You did. But so we got a lot to go on. Go with on today's show. A reminder, you can watch the show. YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers.

Make sure you subscribe. Make sure if you are just getting back into fantasy catching up on everything, you click that follow button on Spotify or Apple so that the latest episodes show up in your pocket. That'd be cool. And that'll get you tuned in for everything that you need. A reminder, we are two shows a week through the rest of May and June. And then we move to three shows in July and five shows a week, August through December. Oh, yes. And if you want an extra extra show every week, all year long, the Footcast comes out every Thursday. It is for supporters of the podcast over at jointhefoot.com. So you can check that out. Here's the quick question for the both of you. Comes from Instagram. Alex writes in, should more leagues abandon the kicker position? Or is that in and of itself an overreaction? Interesting.

None of my leagues can ban a kicker because I would never have one in it. Oh, okay. I am unable to react or overreact to this. Mike, what say you? I am on the side of I prefer not to have kickers. I understand why there are players out there who want them in your fantasy football. They want, you're like, hey, we need all the positions. I like that randomness. I don't. Like I think that kickers. can on like on any given week a random kicker can score way too many points and it's we just yes there are there's of course strategy you can you can get an edge like if you follow the right schedule the right statistics to point you in the path of this is going to be a better kicker but the thing is we just don't care we don't that is the issue is the last you spend your entire draft season just

obsessed scouring. Who are those late sleepers that I'm going to get in the final three rounds? You're like, and then I'm going to get a kicker, which I hope he's on a high powered offense. Go ahead. If you compare that to a similar position in defenses where it's like we don't look super deep into defenses during the draft season. You're drafting them near the end of your draft. Okay. They are fun. Kickers are not fun to play. No one is like, oh, man, this is the best, you know, making sure I draft this guy and I'm going to play the waiver wire. Like that just doesn't actually happen in reality in most of your leagues. I think that there are, I think for me that there are kickers that are very, it's very predictable that they're going to have a good season. Justin Tucker for many years, right? Good offenses, right? Yeah, that's what I'm saying. There's edges to be had. Sorry, to finish the thought. The difference to me is that.

On the high end, yes, you can be predictive about kickers. They always get drafted last in your draft. But it's also rare for, like there's a level of randomness where the worst kickers in the league can have the biggest week, right? The rank 28, 29, 30, at any moment, they could have the biggest week, right? It's a little bit more random in the way that that plays out. That differentiates it from other positions where that doesn't happen as often. There are other offensive positions we don't draft. We don't draft the dedicated fullback, right? We have, we love Kyle Eusecheck, right? We'd love to, you know, he fits into the running back spot because it's part of the bigger picture of watching football and what you enjoy about the game. When a drive ends and a kick has to happen, you're sad a drive is over. You know what I mean? Yeah, it's a negative thing. It's a negative thing. So I think, you know, there are a lot of arguments. If people like it, whatever, you can do things to minimize the negative impact of kickers in your,

on your league which could be like you know don't overly reward long kicks make you know make them all worth just three no matter where they're at or don't take off a bunch of points on a miss kick or something any of that stupid stuff i like defenses i know i like having them in there the difference they possess some of the same qualities though they possess some of the same qualities but it is fun and you can target them and you could target the other offenses. And the waiver wire is an exciting part of defenses because you can play a bad defense at a good matchup. And so there are defenses that are just always out there because they've got a bad schedule. So no one's going to play them for a couple weeks. So you're playing that game against your league mates. Who's going to grab him a week ahead of time for the great matchup in week 15 or whatever it is? There's strategy and fun there that just never comes into question with.

Kickers. Kickers, you draft them in the beginning of the year in the order you think and you go, I hope I did it right. And then eventually if one gets injured, you're like, okay, I'm going to swap them out. And this is just boring. And how often are kickers a part of a trade? That should tell you everything. They're not parts of trades in fantasy almost ever. So if they're not parts of trades, they're not being, you know, you're not like. It's not party trade. It's your, it's almost always the final pick of your draft. And if you cut them, this is the more important thing. If you cut them out of your league.

You can add a flex position. Yeah, more fun. Add more, you know, enjoyment to your league. So that's the side we lean on. You know, I'm not bent out of shape. I stand on. Yeah, Jason stands on it. I lean on it, Mike. I would say I lean on it too, because if that's fun for you in the league, okay, go ahead. That's why we play. But I think it is not just not fun. I think it creates frustration. Well, it certainly did for Mike long ago. Yeah, he's got burns. Yeah. He has a playoff defeat. When you lose in the, in the semi-champi. Fairbairn. Fairbair. When Fairbair makes five field goals and I think some extra points, you're just like, what is this? Your kicker outscored your RB1. And that was the last straw. Yeah, this is not ever happening again. All right. Let's talk about that big news. News and notes from around the league.

Well, it happened. Yeah. George Pickens is no longer a Pittsburgh Steeler been traded to the Cowboys. They get Pickens in a 2027 sixth round pick. They give up a third and a 2027 fifth round pick. And so, you know, it's kind of like, it's kind of like trading them for a soft second situation. Sure. You move up around later. and you get a third, and George Pickens is not going to be the running mate with D.K. Metcalf. So there's two sides of the discussion, right? There's the, you know, clearly D.K. Metcalf will be everything in the passing offense in Pittsburgh, which is good. I mean, like, this trade is incredible. Like this for both sides. This trade. Yeah, that's what I mean. For fantasy purposes, this helps pretty, like everybody who's involved, except. Other than Amari Cooper.

Amari Cooper is like, ah, crap. I thought I was going to be a cowboy. Other than whoever Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback ends up being. But like George Pickens and D.K. Metcalf are two similar archetype of wide receivers. So it was, it felt like as we were going in. You can't be overly confident with either of them. You're going to lean to D.K. Because they traded a bunch for him and they just gave him the money. So he's the number one. But what does the number one mean when you have George Pickens doing? really similar stuff to you on a low passing volume offense. Well, now he goes to, we're talking to George Pickens, goes to Dallas. He's matched up with Dak, which is, like, this is perfection. This was a tweet from Warren Sharp. Dak Prescott, the last two years. Number one, in most passing yards on 15-yard-go routes. Number two, most attempts of 15-yard-go routes. George Pickens, the last two years. The most receiving yards on 15-yard go-routs.

and the second most catches on those types of plays too. So this is, and this is exactly what the Cowboys need. And it's not bad for C.D. No, it is, it is even better for C.D. can move around, he can, and he can keep being underneath in the slot and being a yards after catch guy where they, where defenses, it's not Brandon Cooks or Jalen Tolbert on the outside. It's George Pickens, you actually have to worry about. Yeah, you're, you're going to have to. you know, make sure you're paying attention to the other half of the field and not just taking your entire defense and saying, let's slow CD damn. Now the, the CD down. There it is. There it is. Yep. The target market share probably comes down a few percentages. You know, I had him originally at 31% market share. Maybe that comes down at 29, 28, but he's still, CD is still going to be a target hog.

But now the defenses aren't going to be as difficult. So I agree. I mean, this is really across the board. It's a wonderful thing for DAFITES, the fantasy. Yeah, it's great for DAC. It's a huge upgrade for DAC. He needed another target. They didn't get it in the draft. Do you like just right out of the gate? Someone like Darnell Mooney, someone like George Pickens in Dallas. Are you on the picking side of that equation? Yeah. Just for the upside potential? Yeah, for the upside. Pickens is if you go watch George Pickens highlights. And I know you can't judge a player completely on their highlights, but it's like he does things on go routes that very few wide receivers in the NFL can do. You got something, Jay? Well, I just wonder because I know you are in tune with this as well. Do you have any concerns about the fact that whenever a Steeler wide receiver is traded, they go and die? There definitely is that of the Mike Tomlin knows what is something. The Mike Tomlin era has been.

or just the Steelers in general. It's been very, they've been very good at calling their shot when a wide receiver leaves. There are, because it's like Claypool, they've absolutely fleeced the bears there. Antonio Brown. Yeah, we got rid of Antonio Brown at the, at the, at the, Deontay Johnson. Yes, Deontay. But the, the thing about is like, George Pickens. People, people are like, well, you got also Mike Wallace. And what you got to remember the context was the Steelers wanted Mike Wallace. And then Mike Wallace. Wallace was okay. But I'm saying Mike Wallace didn't want that contract. So that contract ended up going to Antonio Brown, which turned into a huge hit. And then you have, you have San Antonio Holmes. There aren't. There aren't Steelers fans that like this move right now. And Manny Sanders for Denver had a couple great years. Yeah, the Steelers fans hate this move. Oh, for sure. I do think that they got the wrong end of it. Absolutely. Now, Pickens doesn't have a contract. Yeah. And it didn't come with a.

contract extension in Dallas. And there's some more proven aspects there, but I don't, Aaron Rogers coming in, potentially. The wide receiver options outside of D.K. Metcap are abysmal. We have an entirely unproven, we hope, Roman Wilson's around in year two. It's not often you miss or irrelevant in year one, and it's big time in year two. It is, but Jason loves. Oh, Roman Wilson was a third round pick. I liked Roman Wilson coming out of college, but let's get on the field. I mean, you couldn't do it. Having productive options outside of one receiver in Pittsburgh hasn't happened recently either. I would put my money on Calvin Austin having a better fantasy season than Roman Wilson. As much as I hope and liked Roman Wilson in college, that's just where I'd placed my bet right now. It is usually a bad sign for a rookie to be so even like he was injured. Roman Wilson missed his rookie season for all intents of purposes. I think he only got on the field in one game and then was not active.

outside of that. So to me that at least gives potential that we just didn't get to see. It's not like he was on the field and failed. That is like a pretty assured hit rate of future failure. Wasn't there some of that in camp though? Yeah, he got injured in camp. He got injured several times. Right. Yeah, he had a brief moment in time where he was around. Robert Woods signed there. Don't forget about that. That's so boring. But he could get work. Scotty Miller is there. And they could add. They could be a team that it goes and adds a free agent Keenan Allen or something. Like if Kenan Allen. Yeah, Mari Cooper's like, oh, okay. Yeah, I mean, if Keenan or Amari Cooper landed, it would be, none of us would feel like they got a lot worse losing pickings in that situation. But there you go. And on the other side, it's great for Dak. Citi, you know, maybe some of the deep shots don't go his way. But it's still, it makes your offense overall better. And you don't need to C.D. Lamb is a true number one. I'm not concerned about him in the slightest.

Like I said, I love this fantasy purposes for so many guys. There was a clog, and the plumber showed up and fixed that for us. It did work. And it was fantastic work. And then on top of that, like for the Cowboys, this bet of, which is essentially a third, you know, if they get to the end of the year and they go, oh, we just, we can't make the money work. And we can't pay lamb, DAC, and. also pay George Pickens, which not saying they can, they can't. But even if they don't, now George Pickens is going to go out and he's going to get a bag of money from someone. And now you have a compensatory pick. Spoken like a true dynasty manager of George Pickens. Live in a good life. I'm trying to give the Cowboys credit for actually doing something really, really well. Jags did not do something well. They paid $39 million to Gabe Davis three year deal. And now they have released him.

He played 10 games last year. He's still just 26. I like to say he sucks. Yeah. Because I think he sucks. You know where he should go? The bills. I mean, he could. Just give him another touchdown option. He worked out there. He's just done. He's just done. But he tore his meniscus in week 11. So that's that's part of it. And then obviously with them. drafting their new rookie wide receiver slash cornerback and having Brian Thomas Jr. I guess that's the good encouragement that Travis Hunter is going to be a full-time offensive player. Yeah. You don't cut Gabe Davis right there after you lose Ingram and Kirk. I had done the Jaguars team and statted them out with Gabe Davis on it prior to this release. And it didn't change much for me. I'll say that. So Gabe Davis, it was a three or 39. This was 24.

fully guaranteed his dead money this year, guys, will be $20 million. Do you know how many receptions that Gabe Davis had last year? Oh, man. I don't. I'm going to guess 40 or less. Uh, yeah, I'm going to go 16. I'm going to tell you he had one reception for every million dollars of dead money that they owe. He had 20 receptions. Bum. 24 mil. He's a bum. Hey, but shout out to you. But he's rich. Dallas got her agreed to a restructured deal for 2025 to stay in Philly. Goodness. That was a really weird long posturing. Yep. He's going to hang around for another year. I mean, it was like this big old fight in Philly where reporters were like, you know, is there any chance he actually plays next year? Well, I'm not sure. And it's like they just restructured to take a couple million away from. Yeah. It's weird. Yeah.

Yeah, well, he was trying to position for a better situation. Maybe. All right. I think that's it by way of news. Unless you guys have anything else, we can take a break and jump into our overreactions. Sound good? Let's go. I guess one thing I didn't mention that we could, you know, just to make you roll your eyes. You know, if they weren't rolled into the back of their head because you were proud of the Cowboys, we do have the running back situation there where. Ryan Schottenheimer was non-committal on whether there would be a leadback or a committee approach among Giovante Williams, Miles Sanders, Duisvon, Jaden Blue, yada, yada. I didn't hear a lead back in there. I was going to say you can't, that's not a decision. I have an incredible idea, Dallas. Zero running backs on the field. Ooh, go six wide. Yeah.

And throw everything to CD Lamb. If you read their depth chart at running back over and over again, you will continue to add pass attempts to their stat line, Jason, inside of your Google Doc. All right, let's jump in. I'm not going to do what you all think I'm going to do, which is just flip out. Overreactions for 2025. What are we expecting fantasy players to overreact to? Why should they be careful? Who wants to kick it off? any volunteers i will i will go ahead and kick it off here because i don't know if you've seen this one yet jason i have oh i i i did go ahead this is i haven't seen any of your guys this is about not overreacting and i am saying you're really talking to me i am i'm talking to you and i'm talking to the world don't bury brees hall he's not dead yet oh i'm actually in on that i'm actually in on that please tell me more i tried to trade for him

In Dynasty. Oh, you're trying to get him? I tried to offer him a couple offers. It has been a murky offseason at best here for Jason and his relationship with one of his favorite running backs in recent memory of Brees Hall. Last year was disappointing. He finished at the running back 17. This was a guy you drafted hoping. I might have the RB1 here. And he gave you 13.3 points per game. And it felt bad. Because that's not anywhere. Like when you're going for that elite ceiling of a season, when you finish a running back 17 is disappointing. But here are some numbers of don't bury him yet. He had the fifth highest offensive snap percentage among running backs. Like even with they started working other guys in, he was still on the field a ton. He ranks fourth in yards after contact per attempt since entering the league. So counting all of his three years. And on top of that, he's still a great pass catcher.

And if you want someone who can actually get into the top, into that top five, you really need to have pass catching. And we have over the last decade, the only running backs through their first three years who have averaged five or more targets and 13 rushing attempts per game, which that is a ton of work. Those names of the guys in their first three years who hit that mark, Christian McCaffrey, Saquhart and Barclay, David Johnson, Levi-on-Bell, and Brees Hall. This is a really good list to be a part of. I think he's such an interesting situation because I'm with you on the overreaction. I think the burns are major. Jason has accentuated them. He has not put any, like there's no burn cream. There's high treatment. He's not fight fires. He's.

I actually took my extinguisher off the wall, threw it over the neighbor's fence. He's like, I'm going to let this thing burn. Yeah, he's letting it sizzle. But the only thing about Brise Hall that changes this year for me is that the potential outcomes for him have changed. You're at a point now where what, where two coaches removed from his draft coach. Yes. We have talent in the backfield beyond Brise Hall. And. You know, you're going to get towards the end of contractual situation. So I don't look at him. Like his risk rating is higher for me. That's fine. His projections lower than it would have been in the past. But the possibility that he still has upside is, it's 100% there. Like if you end this year and he's the running back 11, the running back 9, running back 13, like not surprised. I think that's, I think that's very possible. To speak to those points, Andy.

you have at least metrics wise look brailyn allen who i really liked as a prospect when he came in and when he first started getting some work it looked like this is a this is a dude who really could challenge bruce hall for some of these attempts but metrics wise only gus edwards logged a worst explosive rush rate than braylin allen He was 43rd and forced miss tackle rate. He was 50th in yards per carry. The actual production wasn't as good by the end as we thought it would. And then looking at the offense, the offense was so bad with Rogers and with Nathaniel Hackett. And Justin Fields is now their quarterback. Look at them last year. Rogers had a lower completion rate.

than justin fields he had a lower yards per attempt a lower a dot and a higher off target rate we're talking about rogers like fields was a better thrower of the ball last year and while it is a it is a truth and for the most of time in fantasy football that when you have a mobile quarterback it can be worse for the running back because you're you see fewer targets but justin fields last year a 15% checkdown rate like that is Only Andy Dalton had a higher checkdown rate among qualified quarterbacks. Fields was actually thrown to his running back. So if we're not going to lose the targets, you buried the lead. I feel like that's the best thing. The best thing you said was that. Let me ask you. You say don't bury him. Is this a back that can be a top five running back in fantasy? Because right now he's being drafted at 10. I would say I would not project that at all. But when you're making the ceiling case for guys in that range,

who have the actual physical ability. Because a running back needs certain things to break right on his team that are out of his control. And if some of those things break right, Brise Hall, I think, is still good enough to be five. But he, I would be pretty surprised if he's not a top 12 running back at the end of this year. Well, I hope you are right. Yeah, that's, um... That'll be a tough one for fantasy players where they pull the trigger. But right now, ADP-wise, underdog sleeper, they don't seem too afraid. It seems like when you get beyond the big names and you want to lock in somebody that looks like they're going to get all the work, they're choosing Brise Hall in the same, you know, is he and Mixon and Jacobs like, where are those guys going relative to Brise Hall right now? Where's Mixon? I'd have to go look. I can tell you. One sec.

Yeah, I'd be curious where Mixon is going relative to Breece, because I would project the Houston Texans to be a better team, and we like that at running back. Mixing on Sleeper is going at 18 versus running back 10. I mean, James Connor or Breeze Hall. I'm sure Connor's going behind him, too. Jacobs is probably going just ahead of him. Yeah, a couple spots. But I mean, you're in a category of like if they get all the work, that's checking a lot of boxes for fantasy players. All right, my overreaction, no one's going to like this. Because we're still in the offseason, right? The season hasn't started? That is correct. And who wins every off season? What team? What team is the champion of the off season? The dolphins often are winners of the offseason. No, no, no. Often are like three years in a row. This is Chicago Bears. The Bears, yeah. The Bears are Super Bowl champions of the offseason three straight years. They got the rings. Here's my overreaction.

Don't overreact to Ben Johnson and him becoming the head coach of this team and that it will somehow guarantee a bunch of fantasy relevant players in Chicago. Oh, the people don't like it. The people are upsetting at all. The Bears fans. The people in Chicago are rioting. I am rooting for him to succeed. I like Caleb Williams. I hope he succeeds in as a fantasy relevant quarterback, but he might not be. I like Roma Dunzae. I hope he has a breakout campaign. He might not be. There are a lot of players on this team that people want to be fantasy relevant, including a rookie tight end drafted at number 10. But we always, always look at the coaching transition during the offseason with rose-colored glasses, all the positives. Why do you get hired as a head coach? Because you did something good last year. Yeah, I mean, you are coming off of a successful season in whatever capacity, like Canales, right? I think he's a great coach.

It wasn't all roses last year in Carolina, quite the opposite. And Ben Johnson's got a lot to work on. We think he's making all these great moves. That's what the Bears do every offseason. Over the last decade, first year head coaches, just to get it out of the way, it's a 426 winning percentage. So you're a first-time head coach. You're already behind the eight ball on the average is there. This is the fifth head coach the Bears have had since we started this podcast. Wow. That's, you know, Trassman and Fox and Nagy and Iber Fluse. The last two, they provided a lot of good content for the podcast, but not good football for the Bears fans. You cannot always wave a magic wand in one year. It's very difficult. And last year, this wasn't like a moderately okay offensive team giving you fantasy production. This was still had Caleb Williams, right? You still had the main cook in the kitchen.