AFC West Breakdown, Hunches & Haunches - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/16

because of just some historical data that I've been trying to gather here. So over the past five years, guys who were drafted in the top 24, they end up finishing on a team with a bottom 10 offense. So going into the year, you're talking about running backs? These are wide receivers. Oh, wide receivers. Say that all again. Okay. So these are guys drafted top 24 ADP. Wide receivers? Wide receivers. Okay. And then. At the end of the year, it ends up, they're on a bottom 10 offense. Okay. What percentage? I'm just, though, so the amount. Oh, I hope he does. I hope he goes, I have no idea. I'm like, I'm trying to figure this stat out because you're not giving me the number. Oh, you're setting up the number. Yes, I'm setting up the table. I thought you just omitted it twice. No, no, no. I just want to, it's, it's a little convoluted, so I want it to be understood what I'm saying. Whoops. Drafted top 24. Their offense finishes bottom 10. You have.

23 players fit that category. Seven succeeded. So basically saying that if you end up on a bottom 10 scoring offense, we already know that offense matters, but it matters more than you realize. And I'm talking about meeting their ADP because last year while Devante Adams finished as the wide receiver 11, he was drafted as the wide receiver 8. Like that's when you're drafted that high to finish three spots behind your ADP. is a negative impact to your team. Well, and people didn't. If you had Devante Adams, it was not a great experience. Yeah, yeah, then there's consistency. He finished as the wide receiver 11 on the back of, you know, 8 billion targets, but he still wasn't consistent. He's a C&R consistency rating. The majority of his games were actually unhelpful. Obviously, he did have monstrous huge games and still looked the part. He's always open, but can he get a quarterback that could throw him the ball while he turns 32 years old?

It's easier for me to bet against this. There's just enough yellow flags. And obviously he's a great, great wide receiver. But when you're being drafted, you know, as a top 10 wide receiver, so is everybody else around you. It was better consistency-wise after the departure of Josh McDaniels. And at least with Devante Adams, it wasn't a lack of. capability. It was a lack of... Oh, yeah. It was a quarterback. It was a lack of targeting and giving opportunities. I mean, he had a number of these games where I don't know if you remember the Green Bay Packer game where he was on Monday Night Football against the Packers. And he had like one target in the first half of that game. And it's like there are some unexcusable like a five game stretch that it just went right in between where he got Josh McDaniels fired.

where he was on pace for a five-game stretch for 60 catches and 600 yards and no touchdowns. But outside of that five-game stretch, he was a lot more consistent over the course of the year. I just think, you know, you saw the result of Antonio Pierce coming in. And the targets were outrageous. Like 180, 190 target pace. So if you tell me right now, you're getting 180 targets, I don't care who's throwing him in the football. He has a place. high up in the wide receiver ranking. Yeah, I mean, he finished as the wide receiver 11 last year. If he's going to get 180 targets, which it could happen, he should be a low end wide receiver one. But when you're drafting these guys in that range, you're hoping that they've got the ability to, you know, vault themselves up into the top five. I don't know that the quarterback play here and the touchdown specifically can make him a top five pick. Is he a somewhat safe?

Low and wide receiver one? Sure, but that's not what I want to draft at that point that early in draft. Josh Jacobs is gone. They were 30th in rushing yards last year, the Raiders. A season after Josh Jacobs led the league in rushing yards. They draft Brock Bowers. So they bring in one of the highest, most heralded young rookie tight ends. They bring in... No other big name running backs. Alexander Madison is so upset at you right now? No, he's not. No, he's not. He's just thrilled. He got a job. He was happy to be called not like in that category. Do I have to be the starter? And they're like, no, no, no. Zamir will be. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm in. I was, I love being the backup running back. So the, the keys are going to be Zamere White handed to Zemir White, Alexander Madison.

When you say those two names and then you say two quarterbacks, that means you don't know which one's going to start, which means you have none, as Madden would formally say. That combination doesn't seem great. No, you would expect them to be, like Mike was saying, probably near a bottom 10 offense. They're not going to be one of the worst of the worst, but they're not going to be a top half offense. Give me your projected win total. Do you know what it is? My projected win total? Do you already know what Vegas has a set of it? Do you, Mike? I don't. Give me the number that you, based on this conversation. I think it should be seven, seven and a half. I would set their line at six and a half. Six and a half is the number. Okay. Which is not a lot. Not a lot. So, Zemir White, you know, Mike, you gave a stat about those wide receivers. I mean. I have the same, in the same stat. No, please say it differently, though. No, the, the, the Zach Moss. I still don't know that number.

It said that here's the too long didn't read. Say it differently. Too long didn't read on the wide receiver status. If you're on a bottom 10 scoring offense, chances are you're not going to hit your ADP if you're driving in the top 24. That was well said. Give me a round of applause. That was very, very good. People love it. Look at that. That was so concise. I understand. Yeah. Now give me that number. Sometimes you got to give the numbers, though, so people know what you're talking about. No, I mentioned the numbers for Zach Moss of like, it's maddening.

of historically it should not work for Zach Moss. But he has all these things pointing of it should work for Zach Moss. Well, Zemir White is in a somewhat similar situation. Since 2014, running backs drafted since 2014. 71 of them have finished at least once in the top 24. But only 11 of those 71. The first time they finished the top 24 came in year three. Like these guys hit in year one or year two. or they don't hit it all. And then when you throw in his draft capital, it's Naim Hines. Yeah, I was going to say when you get the hits later, it's usually pass catching running backs. Those are the ones that kind of surprise after a couple years. You have a fluky outlier year where you catch 60 passes. Exactly. And that's not what Zemir White projects to be. So you've got a guy who's getting great opportunity. You saw him in a four-game stretch when he was given the opportunity last year be really, really good. He touched the ball 93 times.

And he was never worse than a running back two for fantasy. But these things just don't work. When you're a non-elite running back who hasn't done it for a couple years in their career on a not great offense, it just doesn't work for fantasy. He couldn't remind me more of Alexander Madison from last year coming into this season. You're the incumbent who was a star, Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs, leaves. The team says we're good enough with the backup that had some success only when the incumbent was hurt. Right. Same situation for both of them. And now you go into the season and ironically Alexander Madison comes in to be your backup slash who knows if he, if it's committee. You know, it's just such a small sample last year on a team you don't have confidence in. Does that mean only Alexander Madison can work? Like once the year white goes down.

then Alexander, the backup that goes in can actually have small stretches. Your logic checks out. If they come in for someone. Exactly. So it would be best for Samir White if they put somebody else at the top of the depth check. 100%. Yeah, I'm out on this backfield. I don't, I don't really want to play around with this. This is the definition. Sounds like you're out on the quarterback and the wide receivers too. Correct. Let's talk tight end because I'm out. I know that a lot of people love Brock Bowers, and I loved him as a prospect. I don't think there's a great landing spot for him. Rookie tight ends, despite Sam Laporta last year, don't usually do a lot. And then you find him going to a team. They drafted best player available. They looked at their board and they said, wow, Brock Bowers fell to us. We're going to take him. This was not a team that was like, we know.

how we can use Brock Bowers. You know, we're targeting him. We need him. They took Michael Mayer last year. And if you look at a quote from the tight end coach of this team, he says, first things first, I tell our guys are going to earn their opportunities in the past game by blocking in the run game. That might be an old school mentality, but that's my approach. Tight ends are blockers first. And then we can go make plays in the past game. That's just the icing on the cake. Well, for fantasy football, that sucks. And I don't, and I don't like you.

For building a team. That's dumb. Take alignment. I think Brock Bowers will be fine as a rookie. But I don't think. What is fine to top 10? Competing for top 10. Yeah. But I don't think it's, I mean, it's last year's all in Kincaid. Successful rookie season, not reliable enough. Flashes of greatness when opportunities present themselves mixed in with just the learning process of a tight end. I think that that's what you'll see. I think you'll see. I would probably handicap it at six extremely fantasy relevant games. I think the Dalton Kincaid comp is great. I really do. You've got a situation where you're coming in and you've got one dominant wide receiving option on the roster and you kind of already had a somewhat incumbent tight end on the roster. The problem is you don't have Josh Allen. You've got bad quarterback play. He's not. Yeah, and he's not getting drafted appropriately.

Like Brock Bowers, if you told me you could take him with your last pick to see what happens in the first few weeks, like you could have with like a Laporta last year, cool. But like he's going in the seventh round in the top 10 already. Like if you think his ceiling is tied in 10 or 9, which is what I'm saying, and you're drafting at 9, that's the worst pick you could make. That's the worst fantasy pick you can make. Yeah, you're, because you won't pivot from a guy you drafted and you won't get what you wanted. He's a super talented player, but he's going to take some time. Yeah, and redraft, don't draft him. Other discussions. That can't possibly come back to hurt me. No, never, never. But yeah, their offensive line got downgraded by PFF over the course of the offseason as well. Michael Gallops there, no more Hunter Renfro, whatever. Honestly, this conversation is not that, this has not been a great, exciting conversation, and I wanted to believe.

And I got to throw one more thing out there because, uh, guys, Jacobi Myers was the fantasy wide receiver 24. Like he had, he was so awesome with Jimmy G. He was like, he had a grip of like really good games. Sorry, you're just totally back out. I mean, he's just there, Tyler Boyd. That's the category for me for, for Jacobi Myers. If you can't, if you can't like Devante, you can't like Jacoby. Yeah, and there was that. I don't like Devante's 80P. That's the problem. Jacobi's just. Jacobi had a big difference. Once AOC took over and started, you know, Jimmy G. went away. What week was AOC? I don't know. You'll have to look that up. I don't have that on the top, off the top of my head. But what we saw is the targets really shifted away from Jacoby to Devante Adams. I think that is like the one comforting piece of Devante Adams.

62 for 705 was the numbers for those last nine weeks. That was his pace for Jacobi Myers. Okay. Like 60 catches 700-something yards. Yeah, I mean, I like. And now you bring Brock Bowers into the equation. Yeah. I like that the Raiders have a personality now. You know, you know they're going to be this hard fought, run the ball, play good defense. I think they could beat their. their Vegas win total, but for fantasy purposes, I just don't see a lot that I love here because when things are going to beat their ADPs, they're still not going to be league winners. What was the Steelers record last year? Exactly. They were nine, nine wins. Ten? Was it? No. Wasn't they ten and seven? We just talked about this. Or nine and eight? Ten and seven. Yeah, they're ten and seven. Oh, man. Did you enjoy starting any options there? No, very often. No, really. Okay.

So that's what you're saying is maybe their potential outcome. The Broncos, eight and nine last year. Didn't really feel that way either. They were five and four and one score games. They had a projected win total of eight and a half. What do you think they're a projected wind total is now? I'm aware. All right, Mike, have you looked yet? No. Let's go. So the Raiders were at six and a half. I'll go seven and a half. Five and a half. Oh, they think they're worst. Well, they don't have Russ anymore. And so the quarterback position is in flux. It's a tough situation trying to compete in this division. Eighth, hardest strength of schedule, according to Warren Sharp. Last year, they were one of the slower teams in the league. 17th and points per game. They still got to pay for Russ. So I think he's got 19% of their cap this year.

is going to a player or not on the team, which just makes it hard. 19%? Yeah, someone can check my math. That's what I believe is true. 67 million in total dead cap in 2024, the most in the NFL. And so it's one of those, one of those things where it's like, you know where that hits you the most? It hits you with kind of your, your offensive linemen depth and you're, you know, you're just not, you're not, you're not signing guys to have the same level of competition. Suddenly, Jared Stittam's atop your depth chart. You know what I mean? Right.

who is clearly the quarterback too right now. Is that the latest? Well, it's just. You're saying with Bo Nix? Yeah, yeah, with Bo Nix. It's just Zach Wilson was terrible. He got to the team and all the reports were like. Oh, you're talking about Zach Wilson. But what about in the, you know, we're looking at J.J. McCarthy in Minnesota. We're looking at Drake May and New England. Bo Nix's. you had forgotten about. Well, and where is the Stidham versus Nix competition going to be over the next few weeks? I was reading a lot on this. Stidham had the best camp so far. So he was, and nothing was bad about Bo Nix. Stidham obviously has an extra year in this offense. So he should kind of have a leg up. But they drafted Bo Nix. They drafted Bo Nix to be their future in the first round.

And unlike someone like J.J. McCarthy, who wasn't even doing, you know, offensive line protections and has a handful of starts and is very young. Bo Nix is 24 years old. He started an NCAA record 60 games. Like if this guy can't come in and start week one, what are you doing? Well, but that could be detrimental to him. If you're projected to win five and a half games, that would be maybe the worst thing you could do to him is have him be the guy that brings you five and a half games versus giving him some time. Yeah, I mean, perhaps. But I do think that Bo Nix will be starting week one. The expectation for most of the beat reporters is that he will be the week one starter. And we just don't know how long it's going to go into training camp, into preseason before that's name. You can't go from Nix to Stidham. You can go from Stidham to Nix. So I'm going to cast my lot in that side of where they start. It might be two or three weeks. They're going to lose some ball games. Yeah. But we'll know a lot in camp here soon.

So I just feel like Sean Payton's really going to want to install his guy as soon as possible and get him up to speed. He believes in him. And I love Bonix. I, you know, I'm so fascinated to see if it will work in the NFL because he's not the toolsy guy. He's not the rocket arm, you know, a lot of. You just got a feeling about him? A lot of stuff made about. Yeah. In your haunches? Deep in my haunches. Uh, Was he the most accurate QB last year? Yeah, he set the NFL or the NCAA record with 77.4% completion rate. Now, he did throw... Fun fact, 100% of his passes were behind the line. Yeah, I was going to say he did throw a lot of screens, RPO's, you know, so there's people saying, oh, it's just the system. But still, 77% is pretty good. I've seen quarterbacks run a system where they're not allowed to throw the ball down the field and they still can't complete passes.

I just, it'll be a very interesting year. They struggled so much last year. Their defense struggled immensely. Don't forget the 70 point week when they gave up more points to, what, A. Chan and Mostert than you've ever seen in your entire life. That was a fun time. It kind of saturated their entire numbers for the year. It did because if you look at the end of the season, you know, what their defense gave up, they gave up 27 points. They gave up nine points. They gave up, uh, this. seven points. They started locking it down a little bit towards the end. Now, we haven't even talked about the running back room or the wide receiver room, both which have huge question marks. Giovante Williams, final year of his contract, struggled last year, career low, 3.8 yards per touch, was tough to watch play football. Julio McLaughlin, Electric had the receptions. They also had a ton of receptions because Russ either threw it way down the field or he dumped it down to either McLaughlin.

or Giovante or Somagny Pryan, who, which, I mean, that does seem to be Peyton's system. Sure. And Bo Nix's system. Yeah. So it's a very difficult backfield to navigate. ADP-wise, people are not taking huge chances on this. Javante is the highest in the back of the eighth, the running back 29. But there are a lot. So because you have Javante, you have McLaughlin. This feels like P. Rhine is still there. Oh, he caught 50 passes. He's not going to be gone. They like Pryne more. They like him more than we like him. By a lot. Then they drafted Audric Estime in the, in day three of the draft who's, he's more of a big body like would take early down maybe goal line work should he work in. But it's like, I think I don't want a piece of it. See, that's the problem is I don't think anyone wants a piece of it.

And I don't know if there's value. This is a backfield, I think you should throw a dart or two at. Like in the back of the eighth, so like the early ninth, I mean, everything I have had this offseason has been against Giovante Williams. But it's, that's the only dart I'd throw. But what it, like, it's not impossible. Another year returned from the ACL was awful, but he still currently has the job, which is a huge step in the year to recovery. Just walk through the logic of these four players. Williams is the only one worth taking the shot at. If he, if you take a shot on him and he's back, then you have a great player. Right. If you take their shot on McLaughlin, committee. Estimate, committee. P. Ryan, committee. Those guys are not going to, there's no world where McLaughlin takes over a five-win team, a six-win team, and you're happy you have them every single week.

That's my opinion. No, I think you are correct that the other guys would only be massive committee timeshare type of pieces. The only way that it works out for one of the other guys is Jalil McLaughlin. If he were to become the past catching back and have more of a James White-esque type of season because they're down and they've got to dump the ball down and he's catching four or five balls a game, that can work for fantasy. It's just hard with... P. Ryan catching 50, thinking he's not going to be that role. Yeah, I mean, Pryne. Well, we'll see because the, I mean, if you look up Somaget P. Ryan and just news, basically every single article is potential cap casualty. So we'll see if he's on the roster. Thanks, Russ. You know who's still on the roster? Cortland Sutton plays football for the Broncos. He's a wide receiver. Maybe you've heard of him. You know who's still on the roster? Tim Patrick.

He's a wide receiver. Maybe you heard him. Do we need to call him something different this year to protect him? Because two years of Fireball Jones did not end well. Do you, do we need to do like the inverse nickname? You're like when someone's real big, so you call him Lil? So do we need to call him something boring? Yeah, or just like. Like Paul Perkins? What are you talking about Lil Tim? Yeah, a little Tim or like Brittle Bones Jones. Oh, gosh. He said he's got a new number 12. This is a new me. Tim. Oh, Timmy. Do we call him Timmy? Oh, Timmy Patrick. Timmy Patrick. Timmy. Okay, let's go get him. Let's keep him healthy, Timmy. Just Tim. Wait, little Timmy. Isn't that the guy from. Lasty? No, no. That's a Christmas Carol. Christmas Carol with the crunch. Oh, now it fits even better. So.

Just in case this audio- Lassie. Tiny. Tiny Tim. If this ever gets to Tim Patrick, this is for you. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. This is. And you're Fireball Jones on the show. We want you to succeed. So, so tiny Tim Patrick. To me, the emerging upside player is Marvin Mims in this office. Cortland Sutton survived on the touchdown. Yeah. Numbers, which we, Jason, you've said it many times. Yeah. That is not an easy stat to produce as a rookie. Yeah, not only is that not going to come his way from Bo Nix, but he was the wide receiver 35 with double digit touchdowns. Like, woof. I mean, if you have double digit touchdowns, how are you not a wide receiver one? How are you not a wide receiver too? Cortland said, let me show you. Yeah, he did. So no more Jerry Judy, Marvin Mims, Troy Franklin, Josh Reynolds, Tim Patrick.

Reynolds and Patrick will play way more football than you want them to. Yes, they will. And Mims and Franklin won't play a lot. And so why are we talking more happy things? I am actually happily hopeful that Troy Franklin is installed because Troy Franklin was the wide receiver for Bow Nix. So when Bo Nix is coming along, you know, there's hoping it there. Oh, and he'll be a wide receiver for this year. I see what you're saying. He is a fourth round pick. Pick 102. They traded up 19 spots to get him. But if you're drafted in day three, I mean, it pretty much doesn't hit. Four percent, four percent of all day three wide receivers drafted hit 10 fantasy points per game in their rookie season. So the odds are way against Troy Franklin. But they don't all have Stitt on them and Knicks to throw them the ball. Right. But I would put a lot of money on Mims over Franklin. Like I'd do that bet. That's for sure. Just Mims versus Franklin? Oh, yeah.

For this year? Oh, yeah. Let's do it, baby. Can we make that $100? Water bet. Yes. All right, $100 bet because I need, I want the free money. You guys are disgusting. It's Franklin. Also, shame on you, Mike, for not hitting that. He had to wait three rounds to hit the button. Greg Dulcich, Adam Chowman, do we care? Greg Dulcich, probably not because he is always injured, but he has the traits that you want. in a breakout title. Adam Troutman, no. Seattle, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, and New York to open the year three or four games on the road. That seems like a troubling stretch of four games, if I'm honest. In Seattle, then Pittsburgh, then at Tampa, then at New York. Guess that's why five and a half wins is the projected total. Let's take a break. Do you think that helps Stittam start? Yeah, I do. I think it'll be a Stidham start. And a Knicks finish. But, um,

Let's take a break. Come back with the Chargers. The Chargers, it fell apart last year. Five and 12, after being projected for almost 10 wins, three and eight in one score games. The Chargers have a way of just crushing your soul. A few years, yeah. Yeah, I mean, what is this? Since 2015, they're 37 and 58 in one score games. That's 38% win rate. What is their projected win total this year, boys? Nine and a half. You didn't know that already? No, I didn't. Yeah, it's nine and a half. Oh, man. Second easiest strength of schedule in football. That helps. Including Las Vegas, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Kansas City to start the year. It's hard to talk about last year's chargers in the context of expectations.

Yeah, they dealt with an insane amount of injuries across the board. Obviously, they lost Mike Williams early. They lost Keenan Allen late. They lost their main quarterback halfway through the season, towards the end of the season. This was just a colossal failure of a season. But it wasn't long ago that Justin Herbert was thought of as the next Patrick Mahomes, the best quarterback. And the fact that you've got him there. You've got a winning proven head coach building their system here. They're going to run the ball. They're going to play defense the way that Justin Herbert hasn't had yet. I mean, obviously the Vegas win total here is where it's at because they think it's going to work. It does to me, and correct me if you feel differently, but it feels like a process over player situation in some regards going into this season. Yeah. Where the wide receiver room.