Starts of the Week + Week 15 Breakdown, Farewell to Urban Meyer - Fantasy Football Podcast for 12/16

Arizona, 10 and 3, taking on the Detroit Lions who are 1, 11, and 1. Oh, palindrome team. Now it's an official palindrome team. Yeah, there you go. It was pointed out that it was not one, even though I was just considering the middle to be a singular number. Oh, see, that's not how it works. I know, I know. 1, 11 and 1. We did it. I'm glad your anagrams are better than your palindrums. Oh, yes, they are. Well, Draft Kings has Arizona as 12-point favorites.

The overrunner is 47 that gives Arizona almost 30 points. Detroit is at 17 and a half. Is this line extremely recent? Do you know, Al? Can somebody vet this line? I am just curious if the Hopkins news, I mean, you doubt it would move it much with the matchup. Minus 13. No, it's gotten better. I wonder if that came more with the D'Andre Swift-Hawkinson news that it would go to minus 13.

You do have a juicy matchup, but you do have some question marks. James Connor injured on the second of the last play of the game. I think he's going to be out. Chase Edmonds, likely to return. No DeAndre Hopkins. We talked about it at the top of the show. So, you know, you're playing Kyler Murray. Are you playing Chase Edmonds with confidence if he's active? Yes. He has been fantastic on the ground, very efficient. And the thing holding Chase Edmonds back has been James Connor.

taking all the touchdowns. And that role, I can't imagine, they just say, well, that role is not for Chase. So Eno Benjamin's going to be our dude when we get up to the goal line. That won't happen. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. So I think that Chase Edmonds is essentially a three-down workhorse in this matchup. And on the season, the lines are 30th against fantasy running backs. This has been a.

I want to emphasize how bad that the lion's defense has been against running back. So, yeah, if Chase is back, honestly, if Chase is back, full confidence. I want to know what you do if Connor plays because he didn't practice Wednesday. That's not surprising. They played on Monday night football. They've reported him as day to day. So you still need to monitor this for the next two days. But let's say he plays. Are you playing Connor?

If he plays. If James Connor is active in the game against the Detroit Lions, I am playing James Connor, period. So both are options regardless of who's entering. I think so. If they're active against the Lions, there are a lot of points here implied for the Cardinals, and it's not going to be Hopkins scoring them. So I think that the ground game will work against the Lions. I wouldn't fear starting either. Okay. But again, I...

I currently early in the week don't think James Connor is going to be there. And over the last six weeks, the Lions are 28th against fantasy tight ends. So Zach Ertz is definitely in play. I'm playing the, we talked a little bit about the wide receivers already for the Cardinals. So I'm playing Christian Kirk and AJ Green as a wide receiver three, even though the concern would be they just don't need them. The ball just.

The running backs do all the work. Zach Gertz catches a few passes here or there, but I'm still going to play them. Do you play any Detroit Lions of any kind? Is it the Craig Reynolds show? Yeah, that's scary. Here's my concern with Reynolds is that last week was more a result of hot hand than it was playing. And so he had a hot hand and he got some snaps and he got some carry. But they have other options in the backfield.

beyond Craig Reynolds, Jamar Jefferson, who was recovering from an injury. So my concern is that that was not as prescriptive as maybe some would hope. I mean, that's at this point on a Thursday, you got to watch what the team is saying about these running backs. I would probably avoid, maybe throw Craig into like a DFS lineup or something like that, but in your playoffs, I would avoid them. The one player I'm interested in, Amman Ross St. Brown, the Detroit lines, they're,

Their rookie wide receiver over the last five weeks has seen a 26% target share, and that includes 32% of the targets each of the last two weeks, 12 targets apiece in those. That's an interesting volume that can you really deny that? Maybe. Okay. That's what I'm saying. It's interesting. I've done this.

Eight targets in week four, eight targets in week five, seven targets in week six. And that got me. Three weeks. You were in? And then he followed it up with zero target, zero receptions on 62 percent of snaps. So I'm just going to throw that hesitation out there. Eight is not 12. Twelve is a lot of targets. He's also a young rookie who you have every reason to believe is part of their future.

But I would be scared. I totally get that. But look at his on-field snaps since week 11. He hit 85%. That was his highest of the season. And then he was at 98% the next two weeks. Denver, if you remember, it was back down to 75% of the snaps. But again, he still saw 12 targets in that game. And they were getting just shellacked in that one. So I don't blame the coaching staff for not playing St. Brown the entire game. Jason, where are you?

I'm pretty much out on Amon Rae St. Brown. I think he is fine for a DFS sleep. But in the playoffs, you've got better options. Everybody we talked about today, Michael Pittman, bad matchup. I'm not starting Amin Ra over someone like that. And I think that playoff teams probably don't need to scoop all the way down to Amin Rae St. Brown. I think I would much rather play A.J. Green than Amman Ra on, you know, in this same game. And I do think Craig Reynolds, assuming that Jamal Williams is not active, will be the dude. I...

I think I would start him ahead of Chuba. Would you play Amin Rae St. Brown or Jerry Judy against the Cincinnati Bengals? Why are we doing this on a playoff show? Because people actually have these questions. That's poo to poo. People got to make big decisions, man. I play Jerry Judy. Jerry Judy. Oh, man. I would chase the volume of St. Brown. I'm chasing Jerry Judy's name. It's Alman Rae St. Brown. Yeah. Yeah, I switch. All right.

You ready for the goose? The New York Jets at 3 and 10 take on the 6 and 7 Miami Dolphins who have been playing some good football, and they are 9.5 point home favorites. The overrunners 41. It gives the Jets just 16 points. They're arguably one of the worst defenses in NFL history. The Jets since 2000 ranked 696th out of 702 teams in points allowed. Breaking news. Oh, no.

Dolphins wide receiver Jalen Waddle is going on COVID reserve list. I would now choose Devante Parker in the former question. Crap. Oh, come on. That's brutal, man. We knew that there were going to be more. There's been a lot of them, but that's the worst one by far. So that sucks. If you have Waddle, I'm very sorry. Wow.

But Devante Parker now becomes an incredible player. And Mike Gisicki. Mike Gisicki is going to be. Gisicki's back, man. Force fed. He might be on your waiver wire. And honestly, I mean, this is all just, you know, visceral reaction here. But Gassiki might be worth like a flex play. If you already have a solid tight end and you have waddle and there's nothing on your wire, because.

How many, like, Gassiki should see eight plus targets now. Yeah. He's vanished. I think you're right. He's vanished because of the emergence of Jalenado. They don't even have any running backs. Oh my gosh. This is, I'm reacting in real time here, thinking about the implications, thinking about what I think of Tua, who may or may not be part of the later part of this show. I do think that Gassiki is in play as, as a, you know, if, if you're.

looking for a tight in, and he is on your waivers, that's great. I would not move him to the point of flex. He's had a lot of high target games in the past where if he doesn't get in the end zone, I think you're still going to kind of be disappointed with him as a flex, but at tight end, he should be good. Before that breaking news, for this game, I was literally saying that the Jets are one of the worst defenses in the history of the NFL.

Yeah. So 25 and a half points. That's what Draft Kings has him at. Someone's got to do it. I mean, Miles Gaskin's on the COVID list along with Ahmed and Lindsay. Malcolm Brown designated a return. Is Gaskin going to play or not? That's what I was going to say. Gaskin was put on last week. So there is a, he could still be back. And if he is back, then yeah, I'm going to play Miles Gaskin. But let's, because we're in this matchup.

Let's play the flow chart. Let's say all three of those guys are out. Malcolm Brown ends up coming back. So then it would be him and Duke Johnson as the running backs on this team. Are you taking that matchup? Maybe. Yeah, I mean. I would do it over Craig Reynolds. Yeah. And I would as well. Mike Davis. Okay. I hope that by the end of the week, there is clarity between Malcolm Brown and Duke Johnson.

like Malcolm Brown's back practicing, but he's not active for the game because he's not ready yet. That would be great for fantasy. Duke Johnson would be a very good play then. Would you take one of those two Miami guys or Daryl Williams against the Los Angeles Chargers? I would take one of these guys. Okay. I'd like the volume in the world's greatest matchup for running backs. It's tough, man.

Yeah, I just, I told you guys yesterday. I don't know whether to chase the snaps that Daryl's getting or the opportunities that he's not. Right. Because he's been so explosive. I'm so afraid of making a mistake with Daryl Williams tonight. Like he's going to end up on my bench for some other options, but I'm going to, I'll die inside. When that swing pass for 62 yards and a touchdown happens tonight, I'm going to lose it. So.

Would you go with one of the Miami guys? Again, flowchart, it's down to Malcolm Brown and Duke. Would you go with one of them or Devin Singletary against Carolina? I'd go with the Miami guy if I knew it was Malcolm Brown. Okay. Yeah, if there's clarity. So, Jim Waldo COVID list, Devante Parker. He's in, man. He has a great opportunity. Mike Gisicki, we talked about it. On the other side, you know, I'd love to endorse James and Crowder the way I did last week.

That's an area where Miami struggles. Yes. He's last man standing with the injuries. No Cory Davis, no Elijah Moore. But it was grotesque last week. And, you know, Braxton Berrios is on the field. Some, you have Jameson Crowder on 91% of snaps giving you three for 19, and he's not a big play guy. So the way the defense is playing for Miami, I'm just afraid of making that. I'm not doing, I have them in multiple leagues. I'm not playing it.

Okay. I'm making the AJ Green decision over that. I'm making a Marvin Jones decision over Jameson Crowder. That's just what I'm doing. I think that's the right decision. We haven't really seen James and Crowder do special things with Zach Wilson. That's just the reality. If they're not in sync, if he's throwing to Braxton Berrios, regardless of snaps and routes run, we just, we haven't seen it yet. And I don't want to go into playoffs thinking this is going to be the first time we really see some. Are you messing with?

any Jets running backs against the number one ranked defense against the run over the last six. No. That makes it easier. We don't even have to say the names. Well, the name to be said is Michael Carter because he's designated to return. He still has to be activated. But with the matchup and not knowing 100% in your first week of the playoffs that he will go back to being the guy, I think you have to bench him. Dallas at 9 and 4, they take on the 4-9 Giants.

The Draft King Sportsbook line, Dallas, 11-point road favorites. It's palindrome. Yeah, it is. And you mean like when you combine them? Nine and four and four and nine. Yeah, yeah. Over under is 44. Dallas is in position to wrap up the NFC East. If they win in Philly beats Washington, it's over. DAC, it's a great start. The opportunity looks outstanding on the road here in New York for DAC.

for Amari Cooper, C.D. Lamb, they're locked in. Dalton Schultz has only been a tight-in one once in the last seven weeks. I would be recommending a pivot away from Dalton Schultz. Oh, the doctor? The doctor's been out, brother. Doctors take a lot of vacations. I mean, so I think he is having a good time on vacation, but I would agree there are better options. You know, Gassiki might be on your waiver wire. Pick him up. Injoku or Dalton Schultz? I would play in Joku. I would, I think I would go to the doctor there.

We are famous for our tight-in water bets. Can we do it? Give me the doctor. Waterbed. What percent of that start, Jason, is the fact that you were the one who coined the doctor nickname? 46%. Okay. All right. Hey, just own it. Be honest. The matchup for Zeke on paper looks great. People want permission to bench him, however, based on the way he's