The TRUTH About Fantasy TEs in 2018 + Super Bowl Reaction

Want to thank today's sponsor, Hulu? Here's the thing about sitting courtside. There are pros and cons. The pro is, you know, you're at a basketball game. It's awesome. It's the best way to watch the game. The con, you will never want to watch a game from anywhere else. Again. Again or again. That's the thing about when things are better. Once you try it, you can't go back. That's what Hulu is doing. They're ruining things for people because they're making it.

better they got tons of shows movies exclusive originals plus live tv for sports that's crucial for all of us folkland we we gotta have the live sports hulu's got you covered and once you get hulu it's gonna ruin tv forever and you can start that free hulu trial today at hulu dot com well i i can relate to that i feel like i ruin things all the time yeah i mean it's like this podcast

I do that? Yeah. Oh, thanks. You ruin our podcast. Cool. Cool, cool. Why'd you wait 689 shows to tell me? I could have been out of here quick. Look, I don't like conflicts. That's taking passivism to a new level, Mike. It's a four-year plan of getting rid of him. You had too much fun last week when I missed the show? Oh, that was a good show. I'm out sick. You're popping jokes about crab biscuits?

That make no sense? I went back and watched that. Not my finest moment. Jason, thank you so much for giving him such silence and not playing along. Oh, how can you play along with something that doesn't exist? I was out in space trying to swim back to Earth. The best part was just Mike.

His soul was so disappointed in you for not getting it. Right. I was. He was so disappointed in you. And you must, let's be honest. Oh, yes. You must have wondered what were you missing? 100% I knew that I was at fault. I didn't get the joke. I didn't get the reference. I'm an idiot. For once. Top men. Top men. I don't see. That's one I don't get. All right. Zach Ertz, number two. We'll look at the truth of Zach Ertz, which is pretty nice. Consistency rank of number three.

He sustained multiple quarterback, you know, throwing him the ball, multiple quarterbacks throwing on the ball. 116 catches. That's a number one guy right there. Yes. 1,163 yards, eight touchdowns on 156 targets. That is the most receptions in NFL history by a tight end. That's pretty good. That's pretty darn good. And it still busted 25% of the time, but good 69% of the time. Well, and really, the busts, if you look at when he,

fell off. It was towards the end of the year, three of his last four weeks when Carson Wince was gone and, you know, there was some changeover. He had a great week. It wasn't like he couldn't put up great numbers with Foles. He had an unbelievable championship week in week 16. But that gives you even more confidence going forward knowing that it's, look, the rapport between Wins and Ertz is there. And he even further outproduced his expected point value over what Kelsey was. So you want to talk.

better pick, maybe the best pick at tight end outside of George Kittle, was Zach Ertz. And this is, again, just like you said, this is years in a row. Now, the big difference here is the target volume. If you look back the last couple of years, he's been over 100 targets, but not by much. This year, 156 targets is, is that going to be something that repeats? Or do you think that regresses back to the...

106, 110 that he was kind of living at. That's a great question. Yeah, I mean, one thing you know is that in depending on what you believe or don't believe about the Carson Wins report, it's about being a bad teammate or being, you know, resistant to change and running the offense the way that Nick Foles does. Ertz is the best friend with Carson Wins. So you have that connection there. My question to you guys is, look, Kelsey and Ertz have swapped spots the last two years. So.

Do you favor one of those guys? Do you like Kelsey more? You know, because that's a lot of receptions for Zach Ertz, 116 receptions. I'm going to guess this is projecting. You know, we don't know where these guys are going to go in the draft because tight ends, I mean, every year, there's different strategies. Kelsey will go before Ertz. I agree. I think Kelsey will be a second, Ertz will be a third. And if that's the case, I was going to say, would you take Ertz then? I would take Ertz in the third over Kelsey and the second. You want to talk the potential for...

regression on Ertz's targets, sure, but the touchdowns, I don't think Pat Mahomes is going to continue throwing 50 touchdowns. So that's going to take some... Yeah, I'll be up in the 60-70 range. Yeah, sure. Take that year three leap. Right. From MVP to... Super MVP. All right. Kelsey in the second, Ernst and the third, or Kittle in the fourth. Give me them bits. Hmm.

George Kittle, number three on the list, Mike, what you think about it. Number two, most consistent tight-in, 88 for 1377 and 5 on 136 targets. He did not cap out in some high touchdown total that makes it look like that's a regression possibility. He did play under a couple of different quarterbacks than the one he'll have next year in Jimmy Garoppolo. But you said, give me those.

Bits. I think you meant Kittling bits. See, I thought you said, give me those hips because those hips got down feel quick. Shakira, I mean, those hips don't lie. Yeah, you know. And so look, there's a, there are far more questions with George Kittle, which is why he'll go in the fourth, maybe the, maybe the fifth round next year, because there's quarterback change. There's going to be wide receiver change. That's the biggest question for him. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, Antonio Brown could be there for all we know. Who is the number one target and who?

Because of the quarterback shift, you know, is he going to stay that way? And my trust is in the player. And in Shanahan. I think the office is going to be good, better with Garapolo. And Kittle just is, you know, he's better than the defenders that have to guard him at the tight end position. He'll have breakaway touchdowns. He'll be wide open as he torches linebackers. And I believe in George Kittle.

He had 69% of his games in the good category, 31% in the great category. And just a dominating season for George Kittle, somebody that Mike loved early in the season, somebody that I paid 44 FAB. You paid a Kittle. You paid pennants. I did. I paid that much at that time, which I think was heading into week four, because I, look.

What you got out of Kelsey or Ertz compared to the rest of this crop was worth the risk of spending that money with what we had seen so far on this season. It was worth looking at him and saying, is this the next Rob Grancowski, Jimmy Graham type of breakout tight-in? Turned out he was. He's a great player. And the breakaway tight-ins, the week-winning type of weeks, look, there were five weeks that I'd be hard-pressed to find a person that lost with George Kittle.

Yeah, I mean, he was... If there were five weeks, he was the cheat coat. He was dominating, setting NFL records for yardage and just crazy stuff that he was doing this year. There are only three tight ends, and we just talked about all three of them, that busted fewer than a third of their, you know, less than 30% of their games were a bust. So I, you know, I think George Kittle will be the cheapest of the big three, but I believe next year I'm going to go into the season.

trying to get one of those guys specifically. Otherwise, I mean, there's a, there are a handful of others we'll talk about later in the show, maybe O.J. Howard type that are intriguing. That are intriguing. But I would really like to nail down the position and not have to play vomit roulette with tight ends in 2019. Oh, is that the trademark? Vomit roulette. That can be your app. You can build that out. Get the domain. I believe in George Kittle, just like you do, Jason.

But what I was talking about with the wide receivers is George Kittle, I don't even know if you guys realize this, he had double the amount of targets than the player on San Francisco that had the second most. Well, that makes sense because they shifted. And that was Hendrick.

I was going to say they shifted in different parts of the year. You know, you thought going into the season it was going to be Garsohn and then it was going to be good one and then it was going to be Pettus. So. Yeah, I don't, I don't read too much into the statistic because of the injuries. Right. It's not so much that there was one guy there that was there all year long and then got half the targets. It's just, you're right. They may add a Antonio Brown. They could add a Tyrell Williams. I mean, they could add a smaller piece. When a player puts up a, he broke the record. Yes.

For yardage, right? Yes. So when you break the record for yardage, you're probably going to be used the next year. And I don't want to over it. That's why I believe in him. Five touchdowns. That could go up, too. Even if the targets went down, 136 targets, you're still talking about, what, 20 targets fewer than Zach Ertz? The sky's the limit for George Kittle. If next year, George Kittle has 110 targets, so he loses 25 or so targets, I'm...

I'm going to say that where he's drafted, he will return on that value. Wow, I would say he will not at 110. I'm in Jason's camp, but let's talk about Jason's boy. He finally did it. Speaking of 110 targets. Yeah, number four at the tight-in position, CJ Anderson. That's great. Sorry, no, it's Eric Ebron, 66 for 750 and the big one. 13 touchdowns on 110 targets.

A consistency rank of number five. And look, take a little Ebron, mixing a little luck. Yeah. You end up in the end zone 13 times. Still had weeks of four points, zero, one, four. Those weeks, they stung. But you probably spent too long not playing him in the beginning of the year when he was on absolute fire. And look, we played this game all year long. I remember it every single week.

Doyle and Ebron and what's Doyle going to do and what's Ebron's down. And when Doyle's playing, he's the guy running routes. I tend to think Ebron's overdrafted next year. You think Ebron is overdrafted next year? I tend to as much as like I think. Even considering he had the quintessential fifth year breakout as the quintessential 13 touchdown fifth year breakout. Yeah, look, I think he'll be overdrafted. I do. Because I think he did so much for fantasy owners in the top half of the year that.

When everyone was playing, those first 10 weeks, he was absolutely dominant. 110 targets. I mean, being overdrafted and still performing, those are different things. I just think he'll probably go higher than he should. What do you think? Doyle is still absolutely a factor. You had six games last year where Doyle was on the field with Eric Ebron. And Ebron, even though he was averaging over a touchdown a game, you're talking.

three and a half targets a game. I mean, he was putting up unsustainable numbers. He was only playing on about 45% of the snaps. So I'm with you, Andy. Could Ibron do this again? I guess he could because they still play a lot of two tight-in sets in Indianapolis. But.

I'm not banking on Eric Ebron being in top five again with Jack Doyle back. Eric Ebron, I mean, you say he might be overdrafted. The whole issue with him is going to be draft price because I'm willing to take Eric Ebron next year as my tight end. If I miss out on the big guys and I've got to pick one later, Andrew Luck has a long history of having.

Top 12 tight-in. I mean, Kobe Fleener. Yeah, but it was. But Kobe Fleener was never usable unless Dwayne Allen was out. And Dwayne Allen was when Kobe Fleen was out. No, there was a year where I believe both Kobe Fleener and Dwayne Allen were top 12. Now, it doesn't take much to be top 12 of the position, but they would take turns when they would miss games. Right. I think with Frank Reich and Eric Ebron, even though it feels like Eric Ebron is like limping out there and all, he's 25 years old right now.

It'll be 26 next year. He's just primed for inevitable teen touchdown totals. Yeah. He just looks to me like, I'm not saying he can't do it. And Mike, you said he kept putting up, he sustained unsustainable for a whole season. So you got to give him credit for that. It's just a matter of third. You want Tyler Lockett?

No, if he, look, if he's a fifth round option, no way would I take. He won't be, he won't be fifth round. Right, but if he's a ninth round option? He won't be. He'll be somewhere between seven and eight. I mean, that, well, I think he'll go later than that. He's the number four tight end on the year. I think he'll go, but he won't go higher. He's not going to be the number four tight end drafted. He'll go behind Evan Ingram. Yes. He'll go behind OJ Howard. He'll go behind Jared. No, he won't go behind Cook.