AFC South Breakdown + Hidden Values, Jackhammer! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/19

Just two years ago when Philip Rivers was there, so a not mobile quarterback, someone who's not trying to extend the play, 76 targets and finished running back 20 on the year. I know it wasn't like every single week you were ecstatic to put Heinz in there, but, I mean, where is, like, Heinz is being drafted? What in the 12th over on Sleeper? I mean, I haven't really heard much about him.

out there. Yeah, I mean, I think if you're in a best ball league where you're drafting 18 rounds and you're going to get whatever happens if he ends up with, you know, a couple passing touchdowns, receiving touchdowns, then I would like Heinz. If you're just in your home league, he's so clearly behind Jonathan Taylor here that even if he's involved a little bit in the passing game, it's probably not worth it as anything more than an insurance pick. McKissick or Heinz. McKissick. Oh, yeah. I mean, Heinz will exist as a snap goblin.

And the one thing that's been annoying about him is he'll pop up in a red zone for no reason. It's my favorite. Yeah, I mean, he will exist to make you say, darn, Jonathan Taylor didn't get to 25 touchdowns. He only got to 22. Loser. Yeah. The Texans, they are in this division, gentlemen. 413 last year didn't hit their win total, the preseason win total.

Oh and four and one score games. They are projected to win four and a half games this year. It was a troublesome offense. 24th in pace of play, 30th and points per game. Dead last in total yards accumulated. 28th and passing yards. It was bad. They ran the ball on 50% of early downs. That is the third most in the NFL.

Which is a bad idea in the NFL. It is very, very poor execution. Like if you've got Derek Henry. That's the early Ingram days too, right? They just hand it to Ingram for like one and a half yards. If you have Derek Henry, okay, you can run it on first down. Sure. But otherwise. Let's just delete a down. That's what that does. You see bad teams. I feel like what it is is like you're a bad team and you're just like saying how can we make the game go quicker? The point gap smaller by the end of the case. We got to get out of here. Keep that clock moving.

Yeah. Did you know that the Falcons were number two in Russian attempts on first down? Like, why? Look at your roster. What are you doing? Why would you do that? You got to establish it. Yeah. Let's start with the good. Brandon Cooks, 27% target share last year. End of the year as a top 20 wide receiver despite missing a game. Still managed to deliver. And that was, you know, six touchdowns on the season.

Davis Mills at quarterback. It seems like the floor for Brandon Cooks is pretty high. And we have them ranked accordingly. Always is. He's always a value in his drafts because nobody wants him. The ceiling isn't there. He doesn't look like a guy who can finish top 10, not with Davis Mills. The reality is he will outproduce where he's drafted if he's healthy, and he's been healthy more than he's not. Davis Mills did have the highest passer rating on 20-plus yard attempts.

in the NFL when targeting Brandon Cooks. He had four weeks himself as the top 12 quarterback, which, look, I don't think any of us would say you're not targeting Davis Mills and drafts. You're probably not even targeting him as a streamer unless you're in a two-quarterback league. But he managed to show up in big games against New England, the Rams, the Chargers, Tennessee. I like, let me put it this way. I think Davis Mills, the general. Yes.

Could be the general of garbage time this year. I think he may really know how to put out. He'll get the troops and they will collect. If you're looking at rookie quarterbacks and you look for flashes, you want to see quality, and then you look for that leap in year two, I believe Davis Mills, while he didn't have the draft capital of all the other great quarterback class, he was the second best.

quarterback last year. Like, Mac Jones looked the part. He did great. Mac Jones was in such a good situation. Absolutely. But General Mills looked good. Trevor Lawrence didn't look good. Zach Wilson didn't look good. Justin Fields didn't look good. Now, obviously, they've got a lot more draft capital. They're going to have a lot more runway. They've been given pieces, not Justin Fields, but everyone else has been given pieces. But I do think General Mills could surprise and could actually be a great quarterback three to have in Superflex leagues.

Not necessarily Dynasty, because I do think he's not the future, and can produce for Brandon Cooks and also maybe Nico Collins, who looked okay. I think he is. John Metchie. Yeah, Metschie, they, what round? Second. They traded up to get him in the second. I mean, out of Bama, like, matchy's very interesting to me. And like, if this team is really playing from behind frequently, which they will be. And they, I mean, yeah, they will be.

and you have a quarterback who is at least decent. I don't know, man. I think weirder things have happened for fantasy football. If Jimmy Garoppolo happened to go to Houston, which is one of a rumored destinations possible, does it change your view on Brandon Cook's one way or the other? No, it'd be pretty lateral for me. They do have a bunch of players that have been described as running backs to me. Marlon Mack.

off the Achilles injury two years ago, Rex Burkhead, who was the de facto starter after Ingram was traded away, Damien Pierce, who will have an opportunity as a rookie running back coming into this roster on a team that is willing to both run on first down and fail at it. Are you looking for any sort of nugget in the running back room here laid in your fantasy drafts? Yeah, so I'll...

I'll let someone else talk about Damian Pierce because I'm sure that there are plenty of people out there who are really looking his way. I'm not late in the drafts. Marlon Mack is the name that I find myself drafting. You've got James Robinson going ahead of Marlon Mack. And when I think about it, it's like, okay, well, James Robinson has shown, you know, more in his early career than Marlon Mac did, but...

You've got a guy who is months off of a fresh Achilles injury on a bad offense versus a guy who is now a full year recovered from that same injury on a bad offense. And Marlon Mack goes later in these bestball drafts. So Marlon Mack is a guy that you can get pretty much at the dead end of your draft or far double-digit rounds.

to hope that he looks good week one. He is going to be the starter week one. I don't think there's a bunch of question marks there who comes out of the gate and has given the first opportunity. It's just a matter of whether he can look good, recovered from run with it. Oh, yeah. I really let us down there. That was good. And maybe. I don't think it's guaranteed he's the week one starter. He's like if we get into training camp and he looks bad, the team can just move on from him. Like he can.

He could be released. He was guaranteed $250,000. And that's it. Damien Pierce, the draft capital is not exciting. The destination where he went also not exciting. But production profile, not exciting. But on film, on film, just say like, he is not, he's not a data player. This is watching him play. He has quick, quick twitch. He has juice. So if we're going through the training camp process and it's like,

Damien Pierce might be starting for this team. Then I'm sort of interested. If I'm taking anyone from this team, I'll take the shot on Damian Pierce and be wrong week one and move on. Here's a fun stat. I remember being told Houston was a good destination for Breece Hall by Jason. Yeah. Because he would get everything. Breece Hall would have been. You can't just say, I mean, Damien Pierce to Breece Hall is what the night is to the day. Since 2014.

Here's a fun stat on fourth round. I'm surprised you have a cream hunt shirt on today with that comment. Rookie running backs. Since 2014, 77% of fourth round rookie running backs beat their ADP. And that's why I think a lot of people are like, oh, yeah, I'll try my shot at Damien Pierce. But only 26% have finished in the top 36. So beating your ADP when your late draft pick is like, so what? So you're a little bit better. Only one inside the top 24. I don't think the upside is here for him.

All right, believe it or not, there was a worst team in this division last year. The Jacksonville Jaguars 3 and 14. They do go into the season with a six and a half win total. So two games better than where they have Houston projected. It should be better for Jacksonville. It really should. They made some offseason acquisitions. Christian Kirk, Evan Ingram, say Jones. They get it. Travis E.T.N. Back is basically an acquisition. And they have a quarterback that at least.

was drafted to lead a team on into the future with Trevor Lawrence. So two and four and one score games under the shadow and doom of Urban Meyer last year, the Pustane, that is Urban Meyer. But they were sixth in pace of play last year. If only they could have seen it, you know, coming. Yeah, I mean, they didn't. Like, you know, just the.

You know, the overwhelming majority of, like, sports fans, sports media. Right. Everyone was like, or hanging out with him at all. His friends. Being around him, talking to anybody that knows him. Watching videos of him or just seeing places he's been, how he is as a person. Yeah. I mean, you probably could have asked anybody, really. I mean, like his auto mechanic would have known. Family members. Yeah. Visiting his house, seeing all those pictures. Former players. If only they could have known. Maybe they only interviewed Tim Tebow.

I think that's his only friend. I think that's his only friend in the world. I'm guessing in reality they only interviewed Urban Meyer. And that dude loves that. Let me tell you about myself. He loves some Urban Meyer. Yeah, the reality.

here is that coaching situation was abysmal. He came in and did not run an NFL offense. He did not help Trevor Lawrence whatsoever. Did not help Trevor Lawrence. Now, I'm a little conflict because when I watched Trevor Lawrence, I saw. Trevor didn't help himself either. No, I saw like just poor, poor quarterback play. A lot of just wildly inaccurate passes that were like, oh, yeah, why did you throw the ball that?

Bad. It just looked like someone who is figuring it out, not someone who has drafted to be the best prospect since Andrew Luck with the 101 and everybody wanted him. That being said, with the crappy system, with awful wide receivers, which have now been upgraded, and with Urban Meyer, he threw for 3,641 yards. That's a great rookie number. So I do think that there is a chance that Trevor Lawrence comes on and says, hey.

There's a reason I was the 101. I am a great future franchise quarterback, not just a solid Derek Carr level good player, but I think there is still the world that exists where he can be a superstar. Okay. I feel like that's you, you've evolved your opinion of Trevor Lawrence based on not ever hearing you say that. Yes, I have because leaving last year, there was so much negativity and the fact that he had, you know, a 2% touchdown rate. Is it hair envy though?

Could it have been? No, no. Strong hair game. Really? Oh, man. Dude, I feel like genuinely. If you got it, you flaunted. I don't know that I would, and I hate my hair. If you could. I don't know that I would trade my hair for his. You are a liar, sir. His hair is awful. You are a liar. Wow. I was going to say, if you woke up tomorrow and it started growing out, you don't think you grow it out a little bit? Well, I mean, look, maybe his.

follicles, sure. If I had to keep his hairstyle, no. The style could be updated, but it's good hair. Is he got the leg of loss? Is that what he's doing? He's got to do something cool with it. Put in a ponytail. Get like a samurai style. I don't know if the ponytail works super great with the helmet. Yeah, that's fair. Could you get a hole put in? You can ask the NFL. See if you could have the ponytail at the back. Yeah, I'm sure that the safety people would be cool with that.

I mean, this has got to be better than talking about the Jacksonville situation. So Jason's point on Trevor Lawrence, that is where I'm using that information, because I have the same, you know, let's be hopeful here, which is the number one pick for a reason, try to give him the benefit of the doubt for such a bad rookie year. I am letting that hope translate over into Christian Kirk because they gave him a ton of money. Yes, they had to pay the Jack's tax to get good players to come.

They spent $270 million the most in the NFL. But Christopher Kirk is a good player. I don't think he's a dominant number one in the NFL, but I do think he is very good and can be, it can come in and be the number one guy of draw a 20 plus percent target share and is being drafted in the double digit rounds. Like that type of volume, rarely available that laid in a draft. I'm nervous about.