AFC South Breakdown + Hidden Values, Jackhammer! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/19

upside is so limited without the past catching work. I feel like I'm just avoiding this back. And then we have, no, this is not a flashback to last year, but Brandon Ayuk. It's being reported. Jack Hammer of the Santa Rosa Press Democrat newspaper says his performance in minicamp wasn't what you expect from a veteran receiver. Yeah, baby. We'll get into the analysis here. Did you say that this fellow's name is Jackhammer?

Oh, my goodness. Oh, my goodness. You're right. We're just going to let that slip through? Jack Hammer of the Santa Rosa. His name is Jackhammer. It's Jackhammer. Good for your parents. This dude walking into the lock Jackhammer here. Oh, man. Brandon Ayuk, not looking too good. Says the Jackhammer. Oh, man. The guy's name is. I didn't even catch it and I feel terrible. Jackhammer. First of all, he's a supervillain. I mean, there's just no way. He's got a lair.

Jack Hammer. Look, when I try to search and find information about this guy, all I see is tools. Well, he hasn't taken over the search for him. He hasn't taken over the search for Jackhammer. All I'm seeing is get a publicist, man. He didn't get at Jackhammer on Twitter. It's at Jackhammer underscore NFL. Jack? That's a shame.

Good for you, man. Yeah, and good for your parents. Fantastic sense of humor. Getting to the analysis on Brandon Ayuk's performance being not what you'd expect. So the reality is, obviously he disappointed Mr. Shanahan last beginning of the year and was in the doghouse start the season. So this is very, very frightening. But if you remember last year.

The reason people were high on Brandon Ayuk is because every single thing reported was how great he was doing. Sure. And how awesome he looked in minicamp and then somehow was in the doghouse. So, you know, maybe this is great news for Brandon Ayuk. Yeah, I mean, probably not. But I get what you're saying. We'll see what happens. It's scary. It seemed like he had gotten things figured out towards the end of the year. So something to monitor.

Because you don't want to take a middle round shot on Brandon Ayyuk if there's any doubt. If there's any off-season negative vibes, in my opinion, enough other wide receivers to grab to just not experience what Jason experienced. Yeah, and you don't expect that you're going to have Trey Lance throwing for 680 passes. You know, this is a guy who's going to throw the ball much less than Jimmy Garoppolo did. And then you've got Debo as the one, probably Kittle as the two. So.

with red flags on iuk it's it's tough to pull the trigger on that all right i don't think there's anything else we need to discuss all right in pretty good shape all right let's uh let's talk a fc south let's get divisional see i was trying to figure out if his name was like john or jacob because that like jack can be a nickname for those jack can be a nickname for john

Yeah. You know that? What? Yeah. My name's John, but call me Jack. Yeah. John Kennedy. Well, I just wanted to know. Yeah, thank you. Jack Kennedy. Oh, I know. It totally is, but that's one of those. Because he could have opted in to Jackhammer. That could have been a personal choice is what I'm saying. Which I would opt into if I could. Oh, for sure. I'm looking into it right now for myself. Oh, if you were Jack, the fantasy hit me and hammer. Oh, baby. Weapon of choice, Jack Hammer.

Very impressive. Thank you. AFC South today, we've been doing divisional breakdowns, offseason changes from 2021 to 2022 looking at players, rookies, coaches, offensive situations last year, how they might function in the upcoming season. And we're taking a look at the win totals, making our predictions on who will win the divisions as well. And if you want a deep dive yourself on any of these players that we talk about, I mean, this is not.

the Titans that we'll only talk about today. We're going through four teams. So not every player will get exhaustive coverage. You can dive into the UDK, check out the consistency charts, market share, target opportunities in the dynasty pass, team opportunities in the dynasty pass. So we'll begin with the 12 and 5 Tennessee Titans who have a very different vibe going into the season than I think that 12 and 5 record.

you would expect. They had a preseason win total of nine and a half last year, outperformed that. They have been 13 and 4 in one score games over the last two years. Impressive. Which is a testament to great coaching. Yes. But also great execution by the players on this team. Ryan Tannehill, a healthy Derek Henry. That's where they're starting the season, but no more A.J. Brown. Nope. No, A.J. Brown, but the replacement, Traylon Burks is there.

Is he? I don't know. He's been missing in action quite a lot. I mean, this is still early in the off season. I think this is one of the biggest, most important storylines for the whole of the Tennessee Titans offense is Traylon Burks. Is he actually going to be able to step in and give you 75% of A.J. Brown or is he a disappointing rookie bust? And if that's the case, and your number one wide receiver is Robert Woods coming off of an ACL injury, you could see a...

quick implosion here of a one-dimensional offense. Yeah, and they are going into the season with a lower wind total than they started going into last season. So if you saw, you know, you saw Philadelphia have their A.J. Brown wind total bump. I think you've seen it inversely here in Tennessee where you have question marks around that position. Traylenbergs has dealt with conditioning slash asthma issues throughout minicamp.

There was a report recently that he is expected to be ready for week one, but. For training camp. But that's still, you know, you're going to need to be monitoring that. I think this pendulum has swung quite a bit in drafts. People are avoiding Traylenbergs. But, you know, my confidence is in a PPR league, much more on the Robert Wood side of things. He doesn't have the upside that a new rookie has. But from an execution standpoint.

He's always produced. He produced in Buffalo. He produced in Los Angeles. All the reports of his health have been the opposite of J.K. Dobbins, like he's been out there earlier than expected. Running routes looking like he's healthy. So I am feeling more positive about him being more of a PPR steal where right now he's going in the 40s at the wide receiver position. And he may be their number one target. Yeah.

I would guess that he is their number one target. When you have a veteran like him who's a clean route runner and, you know, it's going to be where you want him to be, that's probably your possession guy over a Traylon Burks who hopefully overcomes us. I mean, we've got to watch in training camp to see if he's back there, if he's figured out the asthma and the conditioning issues. I do hope or, you know, I think there's a world where the negativity on Traylon Burks.

pushes him down to a point where he could still be a value. I mean, he's not missing games here just because you're getting bad, you know, you're getting yelled at by Mike Vrable. I'm sure everybody there is getting yelled at by Mike Brable. The real question here about this offense all surrounds Derek Henry. Derek Henry was not really good last year. He was dominant. He was embarrassingly better than Jonathan Taylor on a per game. He was a cheat code last year and then he broke his foot.

And it was done. And now you've got an older heavy usage running back coming back off of this injury being drafted as the running back three. You know, on average, he's the third player picked. And it's so scary because, I mean, even the offensive line ranks, right? Last year they ended PFF ranks as the 16th best offensive line. Heading into the year, the ranked 27th. So he is one of the scariest picks for me. And you never want to.

You never want to call a bust on such an outlier of a human being. But it's really difficult for me to draft Derek Henry with the same confidence. Yeah, I just have so many fears of, you know, coming off of that injury, maybe reagravating it. They also had, you know, AJ Brown was hurt a lot last year.

And so they ended up facing the second highest stack box rate in the NFL. And he was actually below expectation against stack boxes. So I doubt Robert Woods and a rookie are going to intimidate on any level that doesn't mean the game plan isn't stop Derek Henry at all at all costs. So, you know, part of the worries going into last year, you can say, ah, a freak accident. No, it's not a freak accident when you're getting that level of workload. It is a built-in risk of an aged running back that.

I still think he's one of the best in the game, and I think he will come back, and when he's healthy, he will be one of the best in the game. He's terrifying. But he could get hurt. Now, this injury timeline for him, though, we need to say the good news here. The fact that he waited at least 10 weeks to return to play says that his injury, his re-injury risk is half of what it would have been if he came back a little earlier. Plus, he already came back.

This isn't like, oh, we hope he's back, you know, all these Robert Woods, he's coming back from an ACL. He came back healthy. He waited long enough. So we should be recovered from this injury. The injury should be a non-factor is just a scary thing, you know, in the back of your mind. I did. The other two players were talking about Ryan Tannehill as it pertains to just the quarterback landscape and fantasy. And then Austin Hooper, who I took with my last pick in a recent mock draft, who again, I think they brought him in here to soak up some targets.

Didn't do a lot in Cleveland, but he was a weapon on a bad wide receiver room situation for Matt Ryan in Atlanta, a couple years in a row, I believe, with 75 receptions. So I think you keep it in the back of your mind. He fits the streaming tight-in category. If you end up punting tight-end in your draft, I do think he will, he's not going to be a goose for your team. Sure.

He's going to be somebody that's going to give you some at least pedestrian tight end totals that keep you in matches. And then Tannahill. It's been a top 12 guy in the last couple of years. Yeah, it's really tough to find the confidence going into this season. Last year was accumulation situation. It was like, you know, Matthew Stafford finished, what, five or six because of just kind of the consistency.

Tanale had so many games outside the top 15. I mean, he had what looks like 10 of his 17 weeks outside the top 15 at the position. So you really need to pick your spots if you're going to start him. His production did go down substantially from 3,800 yards in 16 games to 3,700 in 17 games from a 6.9% touchdown rate down to 4. Again, A.J. Brown, not himself. I mean, the Titans.

And seven rushing touchdowns each of the last two years for Ryan Taney Hill. We'll see if you can keep that up. The Titans have made such a massive bet on Traylon Burks. I think that's part of why it feels so negative because the stakes were massive. They essentially one-for-one traded AJ Brown in his contract situation for Traylon Burks. So to have that...

come in and your first impression is, oh, this guy's out of shape, his asthma is not managed, this is a disaster. So I think that's why the reaction to him had been so visceral that because of those stakes. So I'm with Jason that it may have gone too far. His tape to me in college, like this guy was a big play.

machine. Yeah, it's not like he didn't have asthma in college. Right. This is a professional athlete now. He has professional asthma. Yeah, who's, you know, dealt with this his whole life. So he, you know, I hope he falls and becomes a value in drafts and dominates. That's my hope. Yeah, and it's worth saying the Titans have the most vacated targets and vacated air yards in the NFL. Derek Henry was on pace for 40 plus receptions before the injury. So when you talk about vacated targets.

Henry, if healthy, could be involved in that capacity as well. Where are you guys taking Henry? At what point, are you taking them in that third spot? Does you need a drop past? I enjoyed the time I had with Derek Henry last year very much. So I personally am very comfortable with him in that third spot. I believe that right now I'm taking Cooper Cup and Justin Jefferson ahead of Derek Henry after those two first running backs are off the board.

So I guess the only question I have when you bring that up is like the difference of value or risk with McCaffrey versus Derek Henry because the numbers we saw from Henry last year, you said it. They blew Jonathan Taylor out of the water. They're better than what anything Christian McCaffrey was doing. McCaffrey was still sensational in those whatever, three healthy games. No, don't get me wrong. He was. But McCaffrey was putting up numbers that would have been dwarfed by what Henry was doing.