Explain Yourself! Rankings Debates & Tar Pits - Fantasy Football Podcast

The Bears gave a lot of money to a guy to come in and get the ball thrown to him 50, 60 times. Those passes when they go to someone else can't also go to Alan Robinson. But then the next three plays will go to Alan Robinson. There isn't a next three place because they threw to Jimmy Graham and now it's fourth down. So I've got him as a wide receiver too. I'd be happy with him as my wide receiver two. I would not be happy if I went running back, running back. Alan Robinson has my one.

You know, that is a good question, Mike, because even you and I have them out, you know, not as low as Jason, but we have them on the outside of a wide receiver one by rankings. But I think I agree with Jason on that point. I don't think I want Alan Robinson as the one on my team. Do you feel comfortable with him as your one? Well, if you go running back, running back, what wide receivers left in that range are you actually happy that you have as a one? I mean, that can't be more than a list of two players. Well, if a draft goes your way, Hopkins will be there.

That's true. Let me ask you this, Mike, because you've been, you know, the highest on these two players. You're up, and it's in the third round, and Juju's there and Alan Robinson are there. Who would you rather take? Ooh, I do have Juju projecting him slightly higher. I think I would probably go, like, let's say it's my wide receiver one. I would probably go Alan Robinson at that point, just of the, he's a bit safer.

You know, like, Big Ben is coming back off an injury. Like, I can't ignore that that's not a real thing if I'm comparing him to Alan Robinson. So, yeah, I would probably go with Robinson. But if I went running back, running back, I would be really happy that I had Alan Robinson as my wide receiver one. All right, I want to pull the judge here for a second. If he's with us, Judge Giamatti, you present? Oh, yeah. Alan Robinson or DJ Chark? Who are you more comfortable with is your one? Oh, I'll take Chark.

Oh, okay. You happen to pick a guy that I'm all about this. That you're pretty high on? Alan Robinson or Adam Thielen is your wide receiver one. Who are you more comfortable with, Brooks? I'll go A-Rob there. Okay, what do you guys say? You want Robinson or you want Thielen as your one? I am the same as Brooks on both of those. I would go a Chark Robinson, Thielen. Yeah, that does make sense. All right. Melvin Gordon, let's talk about Melvin Gordon for a second here. You go player by player, team by team. You walk through.

these running backs, and I was surprised at how high I had Melvin Gordon when I broke down what the Broncos do on offense and what I think Gordon's going to be given the opportunity to do. He ended up at 14. Jason has him at 15. I was a little surprised. Mike's got him down at 24, and, you know, he's still in the backfield with Royce Freeman, and he's in the backfield with Philip Lindsay. So, Mike, you've got him at 24, therefore.

I just got a call from Melvin, he said, respectfully. Explain yourself. For me, with Melvin Gordon, a lot of it has to do with those other two guys. Last year, we saw 358 about carries from the running back position in Denver. Philip Lindsay, who is coming off of back-to-back thousand-yard seasons. I know that they bolstered the running back depth chart, but he is not just...

going to vanish into thin air. And I contend that the same is for Royce Freeman. Freeman may not be on the field a ton, but he definitely eats into the workload or the potential that we've been used to with Melvin Gordon. Melvin Gordon is still a massive injury risk. We have one season of seeing 16 games with Melvin Gordon. He's seen over 200 carries just twice in his five-year career.

And then you have the variable of going from the king. Phil Rivers is the king of checking down to the running back position to Drew Locke, small sample. But Drew Locke, that was not his game. He wasn't all about just feeding his running backs a ton of targets, which to me Melvin Gord would need very sustained target volume if he's going to get back into that conversation of being a high-end running back too. On top of that,

He's just, he's an inefficient running back. He's been over four yards in attempt one time in his entire five seasons. Maybe Melvin Gordon's just not that good. Oh, you know where he is good? He's good around the goal line, man. I mean, he is good at getting touchdowns. You could say whatever you want about.

why they came or whether they're repeatable or if it's a sticky stat. But he has been pretty solid at putting up touchdowns. He's had a lot of opportunities to score touchdown. And I believe Denver will give him the opportunity. And they paid him in a manner that says they will. It was ironic. You know, we did this research here and we found if for running backs at C, 250 touches and eight total touchdowns passing receiving.

Are they a top 15 running back? And the Borgogan monster went out and researched us back over the last five years. And pretty much they always are. I won't read you every year, but over the last five years out of 46 running backs to see 250 touches and eight touchdowns, 93% in as a top 15 running back. And so you say it needs the passing volume work. I think, I think, you know, I'm not going based on a five game sample size.

for Drew Locke about whether or not he'll throw to Melvin Gordon. But I think they're paying him enough to give him the ball 250 times and give him the opportunities of touchdowns. That's why they brought him in. So I was surprised. Just like Andy, when I finished my rankings, I didn't think I liked Melvin Gordon. And I was like, oh, all right. I just, I think he's going to, he's getting paid to work. How many carriers do you have him get? I have him literally at 250 on the dot. I am at 225, but still getting there because I don't think there's another running back out there on third down.

They paid him the money. He's going to be out there on third down. And I think that's just going to end up putting him over that 250 touch number that Jason's talking about. Efficient or not, you know what I mean? A lot of these NFL teams, the philosophical view is we hate it as fantasy football players sometimes because all we have are the analytics above us. But from a philosophical standpoint, they just...

believe in putting the ball in one guy's hand over and over again for what it does to break a defense down, for what it does for pass protection, for whatever the case may be. I found myself in that camp with Gordon. Do you have where we have them ranked in the range of outcomes, Mike, if things go right way? Certainly. I mean, he's, once again, where my rank, I have him. You give Melvin Gordon probably one to two more touchdowns, and he would jump right to where.

You guys have him ranked. Okay. All right. You guys ready to move on? Yep. Are you introducing yourself? Well, let me just do it again. That's not, I'm not introducing myself with that. I'm not a man. Andy. I'm not that kind of man. Debo Samuel had an incredible rookie year, had a moment, you know, a stretch of games where he really appeared to break out. We have that drop for a reason. It looked like a man out there as a rookie, just absolutely dominating.

throwing fools off, getting, you know, getting those screens and breaking tackles. Now, this is a low passing offense with Jimmy Garapolo not wanting to throw the ball downfield. They bring him in Brandon Ayuk and... Ayuk! Ayuk! And basically just saying that sounds, you know, that I was right there with you. Get in on it, man. It's fun. I'm in now. I was a little startled. I'll be honest. Excellent. So the question is whether or not...

Debo's going to take that second year leap into being a really dominant fantasy asset. I think he's good. I have a hard time trusting the office. I've got him at 29. Mike, you've got him up in the wide receiver two clear territory at 22. Andy's got the full breakout coming. He's saying wide receiver 14 is where he's landing in his rankings right now. So on behalf of Mike and myself, Andy, swing yourselves. I'd be happy to. I feel like Debo explained most of.

most of it for me. Every year, you know, players like... Being a man can only get you so far. I can get you pretty far, Mike. Here's the deal with Debo. You're right, Jason. It's not a high passing volume offense. It's an offense that's predicated on a great running game, play action passes, screen game. And thank goodness that they have a player like Debo, Samuel, because there's no more...

Exciting place on the field for Jimmy Garoppolo than 6.5 yards away from the line of scrimmage. And Debo just playing wins at that level. You look at his success rate on screens and slants, and he's in the upper echelon, 86 percentile in his slants, 100 percent in screen game. He was the number one graded runner at the wide receiver position by Pro Football Focus last year. What impressed me about Debo?

was that you don't have to bake in some sort of second year leap in involvement to get a breakout. Debo was the wide receiver six in fantasy football from week eight on last year. The wide receiver six. I got him at 14. I'm insulting him with my ranking. You are. The reality is Emmanuel Sanders.

He's not there, and I'm not going to, I think that's kind of neutral. I don't think someone might want to go narrative street and say, well, now, Emmanuel's gone and Debo's the one. Well, okay, Debo's got his role to play. He's going to run the football, screen game, slant game, maybe he matures. You know, he was a good success rate on post routes. Maybe he earns some more targets. But he's a yak master. That's his game. I mean, he gets the ball on his hands and he finds a way to score. And at the end of the day, look, Debo, year two,

heavy part of this offense, I just think you're going to see more of the same. And, you know, it's not that wide receiver six level, but he had 10 drops last year. You guys can remember this. He had one on Monday night football, about a 30-yard touchdown pass. No one was around him in the end zone. And I remember coming on this show the next week and saying, if he catches that pass, the perception of Debo Samuel over the back half of the year is completely different than if he doesn't. And sometimes for, you know, heading into a new year, you've got it.

You've got to be willing to take the chance on a less proven player. And so Debo is somebody I would draft over Juju, even though we've seen that humongous breakout season from Juju before and we haven't from Debo, fix a few drops, increase those target numbers a little bit. Even if you don't, I think wide receiver 14 is a pretty comfy spot unless he gets hurt. So I'm feeling good with him there. I don't hate it. I haven't met 22. Yeah, you don't hate it, Mike. No. You know what?

I like, you know, man, he's a man. Yeah, I mean, if Jason moves him up, five or six spots, I'd be willing to hit that drop. Oh, Jay? Here's the thing. Just so you know, everybody on my rankings also man. So currently NFL requires. How we?

Yeah, but not like Devo. No, look, I hope you're right, Andy, and I would, I feel like I would draft him ahead of where I've got him at 29 for the potential, you know, you want to, especially once you're past those first few rounds, you know, we, we tend to swing for the fences, go high upside. The upside is what you describe with Debo. And if he does, you know, clearly go into that wider receiver one role and dominate targets, I've only got him at like 108 targets. It's hard to get from there to a dominant.

Fantasy finish. Yeah, I don't think he's going to get the kind of target volume you'd see from a prototypical wide receiver one by any stretch of the imagination. The way he has to put it together, I mean, last year, what, 81 targets, 57 catches, still over 800 yards on those 57 catches. But he's going to have to do it in the Percy Harvin type of role. Yeah, that's a good comp. You know, that's kind of who he is. But he's one of the players, you know, him and Calvin Ridley, I know we all like Calvin Ridley. Those are players that.

I'm really excited to watch on the field in 2020. Another man, Jono Smith. This is Jason's flag plant at the tight-in position without question. I've got him at 19. Mike has them at 12. I'm not going to sit here and debate the athleticism or gifts Joni Smith has shown on the football field. Consistency has been the issue.

Jason strong-armed us into the breakout selection of Jonas Smith for the UDK. Jason has him at seven. Explain yourself. I remember early in the offseason last year having to explain myself about a little man named Mark Andrews. Here we go. And I remember two years ago having to explain myself about my ranking of Jared Cook.

And this year, I do remember that one too. Yeah, I mean, I believe he finishes the tighted one. This year, I was surprised just like I was surprised by Cook, just like I was surprised by Mark Andrews. When I went through statting guys out, I was like, holy Jono Smith, he's up at seven. That feels way too high. I'm literally looking at my stats like,