Explain Yourself! Rankings Debates & Tar Pits - Fantasy Football Podcast

very, very differently. And Watson came into the NFL with DeAndre Hopkins as his, that was the safety blanket. That's how he learned that NFL system his entire career where I don't think Larry is going away as a guy. How many targets do you have, Jason, if you have your Arizona guys pulled up, how many targets do you have going to Larry? I've got 99 targets to Larry as well as 114 to Christian Kirk. Oh, wow.

Yeah, it's more for both of those guys than I have, but I could see that. I mean, Kirk last year, 107 and 13 games. Hopkins obviously comes in and demands the majority of that, but they were bad around the goal line. They could not get the ball into the end zone, and that could be the area of efficiency that improves. Hopkins had seven last year. I have them for seven this year. Jay, you basically have then, I'm assuming, like all those ancillary targets

almost all just going to Hopkins then. Yeah, like Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler. Andy, Andy is Isabella, Hakeem Butler, those ancillary pieces are dead in my rankings. I just, you know, I've got Isabella with 13 receptions, Hakeem Butler 18. You know, I think it's going to be really the three of these guys and Drake taking the offense forward. All right. All right. Well, it's going to be fun to watch. I hope it means more wins.

And I think people listening at home can understand it does not bring me any sort of joy to be talking about DeAndre Hopkins like this. Well, and the one name that I did bring up that has transition teams a couple times and put up huge target numbers was Brandon Marshall. You know, he was an example of one that could do that. Yeah, it's not impossible. But if I bet on one side, there are more variables in play for Hopkins at the top of the wide receiver ranks than there are other players for me.

Yeah, that's fair. But you have seen Hopkins transition, not from team to team, but from quarterback to quarterback. And always be great because he's dominant. All right, Mike, I'm going to let you take this next one away because you are the highest and you can give Andy the business. Oh, oh, excellent. I wasn't sure who I had to go after because I also have to go after you. Somebody. You have to go after somebody, Mike. It doesn't really matter. You know. All right. So we're talking about.

a player who is one of four wide receivers to ever post 100 receptions of 1,400 yards in a season before turning 23. We are talking about a player who has been a stud in two out of three years. He lost his quarterback. He lost everything last year. He was injured himself. But Andrew Holloway.

has juju smith schuster at wide receiver 29 explain yourself explain yourself sir jason has him at 13 mike has him at seven look first of all you know juju should be explaining himself to me oh that that's that's my contention i came into last year telling you that i thought ju juj smith schuster would take a step back

that those numbers that he put up with Antonio Brown flanked outside, Lev Bell in the backfield, healthy, younger, Big Ben. Those were coming down last year no matter what. He was a year younger. Those were coming. Who was? Big Ben. I'm just saying like. Well, he's two years removed from that season at this point. Sure. Okay. But, you know, I came in last year and I said, look, Juju's one of my picks to regress from where everyone wants him. Last year he was.

The fifth wide receiver off the board, his ADP was the top of the second round. People were buying the highest point of the stock, in my opinion, last year. Then he comes out, hot, wet fart of a season. I mean, just bad. Yeah, they had substance and you don't want that.

Those particles. But the kind of the broad brush, the sweeping, which clearly you two have both appropriated to your rankings is when you look at juju bouncing back, is that, you know, he just didn't have a good quarterback. Mind you last year, when you look at the season, what do we do at the fantasy footballers? We say, when you have a variable like that, a variable like that, you want to take a look at the player.

independent of the quarterback situation. And we put that into our ultimate draft kit. We have Matt Harmon's reception perception. We look at the player. We look at the route tree. We look at are you winning? Well, Juju doesn't win a lot on the outside. He's a great slot-wide receiver. But I've got some advanced data for you coming from Matt Harmon for this year's UDK.

Last year, he fell below the 24th percentile in success rate versus man coverage. That's a third straight year under the 24th percentile, fell below the 12th percentile in success rate versus press coverage for the third straight year. We needed to see him come out and be able to be a number one on the outside, and he was able to succeed in the slot because of what Antonio Brown affords you. We might need to look at, and I'm quoting,

Friend of the show, Matt Harmon here, we might have to look at Juju in the vein of the Jarvis Landry type, a great, successful, potential high volume, really good player, going to have big games because he can take the ball to the house from, you know, an inside slant. But I don't look at him. He graded it out, by the way, 85th of 122. Last year at the wide receiver position, his teammate Deonté Johnson, was 20 spots ahead of him, according to pro football focus. So it wasn't just...

a quarterback last year. He had a down year overall. And he played in 12 or 16 games. So it is a bounce back bet that you're looking at for juju and because I wasn't in on him as a number one last year, I'm not going to take another year of Big Ben, not established outside weapons, and look at juju and say, yeah, you get the, you get the benefit of the doubt. I'm giving you that top five, top six, or sorry, top 10 ranking.

I'm just not willing to do that. I think he can have big games, but I have them much lower than, I think, pretty much anybody in the industry because I just don't believe he has what it takes to be a one in the offense. And I'll jump in because what I heard what you were saying, so for the third straight year, he fell below certain metrics. So like when he put up 1,4007, he was below that mark. Yeah, but he was playing in the slot with Antonio Brown on the outside. And honestly, I think the moves that the team has made.

They allow Juju to go back to where he is most comfortable. And it's fine. If all he is is a awesome slot-wide receiver, all right. That's what he is. He can still put up massive numbers. It won't surprise me to see, you know, either James Washington and Deontay Johnson on the outside. That could certainly happen. Or they have, they drafted like a monster of a man in the second round, Chase Claypool here, who.

He would be an outside wide receiver. That guy's not going in the slot with his size. And I'm just, I know we're, I know we're a year removed again from Big Ben lost an entire year. But that season you're talking about two years ago, Big Ben led the league in passing yards. Like Big Ben over the last five years, averages over 300 passing yards per game. I'm just, I'm.

this isn't just a bet on juju for me it's all it's a bet that big ben can still come in here and get it done and he's out there throwing NFL passes getting his beard shaved and who's he throwing it to wasn't theante johnson out there with it was juju well if you remember last year too one of the contentions that people tried to make with juju was this idea that oh my goodness what if the touchdowns go up because those yard is not going to happen but you got claypool you got ebron you have different weapons now too where

You know, what's Jarvis Landry known for? He's not for, you know, Red Zone utility. I'm not saying that Juju can't perform, but there are rumors around, this is a contract year for Juju as well. Is he a part of the future plans for Pittsburgh? Is this going to become Deontay Johnson's team or Claypool or somebody else's? Are they going to pay for a slot receiver the money that Juju will won at 23 years old? Right. And does that change the way they use them in the offense? I don't know the answer to that question. I'm just giving you.

the math behind what I viewed as anecdotal observations of his game, which is that game-breaking type of player, but I don't think he's won. So we have a pretty big disparity on him. Yes, we do. Alan Robinson, Jason, Alan Robinson, good friend of the show. Great friend of the show. Great friend of Blake Bordle. Big Al! Big Al! Do we? He hates that. Jason...

has him down at 20. Mike and I have on the outside of the wide receiver. One range, Mike at 10, I'm at 12. So Jason, with him down at 20, explain yourself. Explain yourself. Look, I think this is pretty easy. This is pretty easy to explain. I think Ellen Roberts is a great player. I think he's the one for the Bears.

And I think what you had last season is peak. And I'm certainly not saying he can't get back there. But that's not my expectation, right? I mean, last year he had the fifth most targets in the league with only 118 of those being deemed catchable because you got bad quarterback play. And I don't think the bad quarterback play is going away. Trubisky's still there. And yes, maybe it shifts to Foles. But Foles only looks good by comparison to Trabiski, not necessarily like, this is not like,

Foles is here. He's got the best quarterback ever. I was going to ask you. He's never played a single snap with a good quarterback. That's absolutely true. And he's had now two seasons where he's finished great and other seasons where he's, you know, he's been a solid quad-receiver or been injured. He's great. No, you have 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns. It's like, no, guys, people just do that every once in a while.

So here's an outrageous line, man. Here's the, that is an outrageous line back. You're talking back when he was a Jaguar breaking out. Absolutely. I remember those days long ago. But the reality is this. Last year the targets came because of decimation to the receiving options.

for the Bears. If you look at his target volume over the beginning, you know, the first nine weeks of the season when the team was relatively healthy, you lost Trey Burton in week 10. You lost Taylor Gabriel in week 13. Look at the targets. Did they ever find Trey Burton? They found him another team. He surfaced over on the Colts. I've been looking for him. I just wasn't sure.

But the point is, is that look at those last five games when there were no other options to throw the ball to. He was, you know, he was on pace for 186 targets. Because, yeah, I mean, he was a monster at the end. He was the only guy. But now look at their offseason moves. We don't like Jim. Yeah, Ted Ginn. Ted Ginn and Jimmy Graham, older guys, but that are coming in and are going to take receptions away. And you also draft Cole Comet. This is a team that has.

tight-ins have been a predominant part of what they want to do, and they haven't been healthy enough to do it. Two years ago, Trey Burton had 74 targets. Taylor Gabriel had 94 targets, and those were the number two and number three options. Now you've got Anthony Miller, who's getting better. They've brought in Ted Ginn. They've brought in Jimmy Graham. There are other options to throw the ball to. I mean, two years ago, he was on a 16-game pace, Alan Robinson, with this team.

with those other weapons, a 16-game pace of 116 targets. So it's just a matter of, do you honestly think he's going to be this 155-60 target guy? I've got him with 140 targets. That's solid, but he's getting 140 targets from a bad quarterback. And that puts him as a wide-off number two. I wouldn't use Jimmy Graham and I wouldn't. Yeah, I wouldn't blacked out. I'm fine with the regression of targets, but I wouldn't.

Ted game hasn't stolen targets from anybody in 12 years. There has to be a reason for a regression of targets. And when you got to- Well, how about the emergence of Anthony Miller? You want to go the emergence of Anthony Miller over a five-game span last year over the back half of the year? That I can buy. Sure, but I mean, okay, let me ask you this. Does Jimmy Graham get more or less than 60 targets this season? Honestly, I have no idea. I don't know Jimmy Graham gets on the field for more than three or four games. Well, what do you have them statted for, right?

You've got him statted for 50? That is correct. 52 targets is what I have. Okay. So I've got I've got him right at 60. But I mean, so those are those are targets that are that he's getting. Is he good with those? No. He's not going to do much. Should they throw him the ball 50 or 60 times? No. But they're paying him big money. So when I say that the target regression is coming and I bring up Jimmy Graham's name, yeah, we roll our eyes at it. The bears don't.