Surprise Show! Explain Yourself + UDK Day! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/1

I don't see how it goes wrong, especially. Like, let's say he doesn't finish as the wide receiver 10, where I have him ranked. He's being drafted as the wide receiver 24. Outside of being injured, there's no way he drops that far. So you're drafting a player at his floor, and I do think he has the ceiling of being the wide receiver 5. I don't think wide receiver 10 is absolutely his ceiling. He's a guy that can go out there and catch 13 touchdowns. And if that happens with everything else that he does, I think you guys are the ones really who need to explain themselves. Look, you have them higher than ADP. We have them slightly lower than ADP. To your credit, the second half of last year, even though it was a struggle for Gino Smith, his pace from week 10 on was 71 for 1246 and 11. So he's on the touchdown pace. The kind of counterpoints briefly that would factor into the decision would be things don't always go well.

coming from the collegiate game to the NFL and trying to implement a system. Yeah, does he? Cliff Kingsbury, Matt Ruhl and Urban Meyer and Joe Brady. No, he did not have to move. You see, because he has the same house. Yeah, just different team. Does D.K. get to play against college DBs? It's going to make them look like it, yeah. And then the other part would just be like, Gino Smith is a question mark. Like, can he bounce back to form? That's not like, you know, you're banking on. You're banking on Gino Smith. It's part of the equation. Gino Smith had a very down year last year. He did. D.K. McK., everyone thinks has a very down year last year. He was the wide receiver 16, and he missed a game. So it's like, okay, so that's the down year? Yeah, I mean, if you started the year with D.K. Matt Kaff, it was, yeah, it was a down year. Well, I mean, he was terrible. Really good the first three weeks. And then he got injured a couple weeks after the buy and then took a couple weeks to get back. I mean.

You had a stretch that was bad, but it started good and then it finished awesome once he was back from injury. And again, on the season, he was a consistency of a B and the wide receiver 16. So it wasn't like it all came in one. It was, he was really good. It, we'll see how defenses play against that scheme because the, you can't argue with the numbers of how good D.K. is against man coverage, but teams aren't doing that as much. And he was. not nearly as good against zone. So if they're getting more zone against him, then we'll see. The argument of your drafting him at his floor is compelling. I will agree he is not as good at zone as he is at man, but I want to make sure that that is not mistaken to be he's not good against zone. He's great against zone better than the other two wide receivers on his team, but not as good as he is against man. All right. Speaking of man, we need to talk.

about a man who in most years might have been the number one wide receiver drafted because he's so talented goes to a place with no target competition we're talking about the wide receiver 19 above d k mackoff in average draft position who i've got at 22 and he's got at 18 the man the myth the legend malik neighbors Mike, you've got him at wide receiver 37. It's time for you to explain yourself. I'm not even angry about this ranking. I'm just disappointed. Right. Yeah, you're the father. I'm just disappointed. And that hurts Mike the most. Because I thought that you could see things clearer. I. And you've rubbed Vaseline all up on those eyes. I have seen clear that Malik Neighbors is an incredible prospect. I think the introduction.

helps highlight the problem that's going on with Malik neighbors. Why'd you call him a legend? The man the myth, the legend who has taken zero snaps in the NFL is being drafted as the man the myth, the legend. You said at wide receiver 19 on sleeper right now, wide receiver 20 over on underdog. He is being drafted as the second highest rookie wide receiver in ADP ever. And he's number two because right now Marvin Harrison is going. also extremely high. So I'll just start it off here. Where he is in my rankings, 37 sounds absolutely abysmal. It is. But the point, my point being, guys right around there, like the point differential is, it's very small. Like, if I just give him another touchdown, he jumps up four spots. Like, it doesn't take. How many touchdowns did you give him? Well, I will get to it. Zero?

I have him sitting at 5.6 touchdowns right now based off of his statistics. Yes, he's an incredible prospect, and I projected him out with really solid numbers. I gave him a 25% target share. That would be tied with Mike Evans for the sixth highest for a rookie over the last decade. He has, and that turned into 127 targets. The problem is the ADP. and the, versus the Giants. Last year, Giants 30th and points per game, 31st and passing yards per game, three and out on over 40% of their drives. Sounds like they needed Malik neighbors. Yes. You see, well, there's nowhere to go but up. But have we discovered many times on this show, that's not true. You can go to the side. Maybe you don't go further down, but you can move laterally forever and ever and ever.

They have a quarterback problem. Is it Daniel Jones coming off the ACL? Is it Drew Locke? Right now it certainly sounds like it's going to be Daniel. Seems like Jones. Right now it sounds like it's going to be Daniel Jones, who again will be coming off of an ACL tear. The best fantasy finish for a wide receiver for Daniel Jones is wide receiver 35. That was Darius Slateen back in 2019. I'm not comparing the talent level of Malik neighbors to Darius Slate. There is a massive gap. But I am saying that this offense with Daniel Jones and his passing prowess,

is a problem. Over the last decade, we looked at every single rookie wide receiver over the last decade. If a team is in the bottom 10 of passing yards per game, we have one, one rookie wide receiver in the top 30. Top 30. And look, I've got the Giants projected in the bottom 10 of passing yards. You guys aren't that far off from my projections when you actually dive into it. Mike Evans got there because he had 12 receiving touchdowns. So there is an outlier that can happen for him. But overall, I'm really, really worried about his situation in this first year. And just being the number one target of a team, volume is incredible. Jay, you said, but targets are absolutely different. Garrett Wilson, the most targets ever through the first two years of his career. Have we been happy with the Garrett Wilson ride for fantasy football? Absolutely not. So.

If you put Malik neighbors, like back where we used to draft rookies, I would be all about it, all about that upside. But wide, he's being drafted as a top 20 guy. It's frustrating. And he's, like, he's being drafted. Here's your choice. ADP. If you're going on a wide receiver, ADP, Debo, Michael Pittman, Jalen Waddle, Devontas Smith, Cooper Cup. Oh, who's this guy? D.K. McCaff. Yeah, I'm not taking them. I'm not, look, I'm not taking them over D.K. But if you want him on your team, these are the guys, these are the wide receivers that you will have to. That's redraft ADP right now? Yes. You will actively be choosing your opportunity. Your opportunity cost for for Malik neighbors is Jalen Waddle. There was a, there was a point in time where I thought Malik neighbors would probably end up on my guy. And that was because I thought that the, you know, fantasy community would factor in all of these negative things. They are not. Like everything you say is true about the Giants.

And even if you look at Daniel Jones and the kind of yardage he puts up, like two years ago, it was like 3,200 yards. Last year's pace in the games he played, not even counting the one he went out early. If you just take the games he played full, it's like a 3,000 yard pace. Now, it's a little chicken and egg, right? Because you can't throw for a lot of yards with no receivers. You also had an offense built around Sequin Barclay, where that was the fundamental kind of way that you tried to execute your offense. But I wish that the fantasy world was trying to drive that price down.

more effectively. Because I would, if he was the wide receiver 35. Oh, beautiful. Then we're not having this conversation. No, of course. I mean, that would be awesome. And the issue here, the displaying yourself is not should he be going at ADP. I don't have him at ADP. I don't have him ranked there. I think he's being drafted too high for like I'll go in another. Not much, Jay. But you've got him at. 37. So when you talk about those other names, no, I'm not taking them over DK. But when I'm looking at ADP, you've got them around. Yeah, let's bring some names up there. You've got Chris Godwin, Marquis Brown, Jordan Addison ahead of them. Yeah, I wouldn't take, I'd take neighbors over all those guys. Of course you would. There is the upside case to go with Malik neighbors there. And it's the 37. It's.

Don't get hung up on the 37. Like, Jay, you have him at 11.4 fantasy points per game. I have him at 10. Right. It's not a drastic difference. The actual numeric ranking of him, he could be like by the time the season starts, maybe he'll be up in the low 20s for me. But that still won't change the fact that it's, yeah, this is why we tier base draft, by the way, because he's going to be in a bucket with. a bunch of other guys and just make sure you're paying attention to tears. I don't think I, the names you mentioned, maybe, maybe I would take them over one or two of those guys, maybe. Right. Depending on roster construction. Like if I have no volatility at wide receiver one and I want volatility, like I think Malik Neighbors is going to have a 200 yard game this year, like something like that. If I want some more volatility, then maybe I'm taking them over one of the steadier players around his ADP.

But it's a compelling case against. And let me be clear, this brings me pain. I love Malik. It brings us pain. I love Malik neighbors. I think that long term, Malik neighbors, it's going to be incredible. But this first year with the way that everything is sitting right now, I want to get on board. But based off of what the market is doing, I can't get a ticket. I'm priced out. I, yeah. And. I'm not sure you really want to get on board with that ranking. I got to be honest. With 37? Because you rank them there, you don't want to get on board. You want to get off board, whatever that means. All right, quick break. Back with another. It's time to turn the spotlight away from me and my egregiously low ranking of Malik neighbors and focus on something idiotic and stupid. Oh, boy. Oh, man. That the fearless captain of this show, Mr. Andrew Holloway is doing. Jason R. King.

Everyone's not. Yeah, not just our king. The king of fantasy football running backs. King Henry coming off a very solid season. He's going to, he was on a bad team. He was. He was on a bad team. Still had a solid season. Now he's on a great team. Some may say a Super Bowl contending elite team. They don't do rushing touchdowns there. No, they just do like the most. They do all the rushing touchdown. Whoops, I was wrong. I got King Henry. Get a room, guys. I got King Henry at 10. Oh, I got him at 10. You got him at 10. You're being reasonable. Andy's over here saying he's just a bum. He's a wider. He's a quarterback. He's a wide receiver. He's running back 18. He's barely holding on to be an RB2. Yeah. I mean, my ranking is low for Derek Henry.

I agree with that. Now, I know that I don't know how much of a historical man you are, Mike, or like if you're, you know, the archaeologists. I'm a man of history. Yeah, I mean, they dig and they find relics from the ancient past. And I have yet to find a king whose reign has lasted forever in those ancient relics. So at some point in time, a rain comes to an end. And my ranking of Derek Henry is more indicative of where I think there's a... wide a range of outcomes for the player this year than there has been in years past. The entirety of the offense in Tennessee was, we literally would joke. It's the Tennessee Derek Henry's. We would call them that Eric Henry's because he had the ball so often and that was their identity. Now, he goes to Baltimore, a team that was on the cusp of Super Bowl contention last year without it by using a hodgepodge of other running backs. And so I.

I acknowledge the realistic chance that Derek Henry could have 15 touchdowns in this offense. But I do think you are entirely going to be dependent on those type of numbers in terms of touchdowns. And that's going to be what makes or breaks Derek Henry's season. And we can point to how many short yardage Gus Edwards touchdowns there were. That's great. But you also have an offense that the identity is Lamar Jackson. The identity is going to be, you know, some Zayflowers, some Mark Andrews. The defense, right? Like these were not elements in play in Tennessee. Last year, you know, Derek Henry had a good season, 12 touchdowns in Tennessee, had a great run in the year. He's 30 years old now. That's going to be a factor. You know, the king is getting older. And he's not going to catch passes in this offense.

That's one of the... How dare you? That's one of the fundamental realities. We all actually, you say how dare you, but we all have him catching fewer than 30. No, I have in our ranking. Of course he's not going to catch passes. And so, you know, it's very difficult to see it not being a touchdown dependent season for him. I don't think he's going to run the ball as often as he did in Tennessee because the offense is going to be built around, you know, we talk about Lamar Jackson losing weight and being more agile and like Lamar Jackson is going to have...

a yardage total that's pretty significant at the position. His efficiency, Derek Henry's, has been going in the wrong direction. I've got him down at four a carry. You guys have him down at 4.4 a carry. So I do think that there's just a little bit more risk, and that's baked into how I'm drafting these players. I think there's more upside with some of the other guys in my ranking. So that's kind of where I have him. It's lower. because I think that there's a chance that you're disappointed with the draft selection this year, which has not been a reality in the past. So that's kind of where I haven't, like in the last decade, just to give you another number. Oh, I was hoping you bring this. There are only four running backs that are age 30 plus that hit double digit total touchdowns. It's a rare thing. Along with fewer than 30 receptions. And that is AP did it. And he was drafted to do it. Yeah. But the other three guys were not even drafted.

It was just like incidental. It was LeGarrett Blunt. It was Moester last year who was late round drafted. And then Mark Ingram. And how they finished. What do you mean? Well, what was like the finish of the guys that did that had the fewer than 30 receptions? Oh, the outliers? Yeah, the outliers finished really well at 2, 8, 8, and 2. So if he does something that is very low odds to do, he will have a very low odds great season. Like would you say Rahim Moser was, I mean, you drafted him in the first last year, right? No, no, sir. Okay. So you didn't see that coming. No, no, nobody saw Ray Mooster coming. There has been one age 30 running back drafted where you guys want to draft him that pulled it off. That's all I'm saying. One, one in history. So if one in history is the kind, I mean, I'm sure there was one king whose rain lasted a little bit longer than the rest. How did he finish? Running back two.

Yes, the one guy. I'm just saying if you're going to bring up the example. So you're telling me, let me get your argument straight. If he has a great season, he'll finish great. That's your argument right now. If he has an amazing season statistically, you're saying that will translate to fancy points. Try poke holes in that one. Yeah, that one seems hard to break. Well, fewer than 30 receptions is a barometer that we're all conceding here and isn't a good thing. Over 30 is something everyone's conceding because it's called a fact. So the real question is just touchdowns. Does he get 10? Right now his Draft King Sportsbook line is 10 and a half. That's the over under. So it's not really this crazy outlier situation we're hoping for. We just need him to get 10 and a half touchdowns. And then apparently you finish top 10 according to those four. And one of the running backs was Mark Ingram on the Baltimore Ravens in its somewhat similar offense. Yeah, we know Lamar's not going to throw it to him.

I believe that, you know, we talk a lot about Travis Kelsey. He's older. Your worries about him and the reason neither of you have him ranked number one, I think. Do you have them at one? I do have him at one, I believe. Okay. One of the concerns about Travis Kelsey that was being made was what is the goals of the team? Is it to win a bunch of regular season games? Do you want to stretch Derek Henry out in the first eight games of the season when you need to close strong and go into the playoffs and play extra football games?

Like that is a strong consideration. Like the Yeti, like sometimes the Yeti gets saved. Like he doesn't come out until the games matter. And I am concerned about that. Like if I am the Ravens and I'm going into the season with a 30-year-old Derek Henry, my plan is not to depend on Derek Henry to the degree that Tennessee did because I want him for the first and second and third round of the playoffs. I don't want to give him 25 carries a game and then lose him. for the back half of the year. So I think his range of outcomes is more extreme than you two have factored in. And I've ranked him as the king. That's fine. That's acceptable. It's understandable. I'm going to hit this button again. Oh, oh, yeah, let's go. Jake, can you do it live? I am doing it. UDK. Who? Yeah. Little big chimney. Yeah. Yeah.

Those are very athletic dance moves. Thank you. He's surprisingly athletic. That's what they say. The podcasters, you know, the listeners at home, you really need to watch this. Because Jason's got, he's putting the moves on display. Well, and you really need to get the ultimate draft kit. So go to ultimate draft kit.com. Check it out. You can download the app. It is up. It is released. Not just the UDK. Plus. All of it is out there for your. perusal. I thought you were going to say free. I thought you were about to say it's out there for free. It is 100% free after you buy it. So just one low price and it's free the rest of the off season. That's right. Ultimate draft kit.com. I think we need to shut this down. Hopefully you enjoyed the surprise episode today. We wanted to celebrate with you. Mock draft episode on Tuesday next week. Thursday, we're doing some keep trade cut, which should be a lot of fun.

And if you want to watch Jason Dance, that's YouTube.com slash the fantasy footballers. That will do it. That was pretty fun. I don't know how many minds were changed in here, but hopefully two of them. The information's out there. Goodbye. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FFBallers.