Fantasy Football 2018 - Early QB Rankings

and that he basically kind of said, no, I'm not back in office. This is how I'm going to play. I think even if the argument is made that he's healthy, 100% and returns to that form, you have a higher injury risk with a player like Carson wins. If he's willing to do that to his body, then you do some other quarterbacks. Certainly. Matthew Stafford and Phillip Rivers are tied for 10th on a consensus early. Quarterback rankings. Jason, you've got Stafford the highest at 7th. Mike 11. I've got him at 16.

Rivers I have at 15. You guys have them at 9 and 10. So I'm the lowest on these two players. You got Stafford at 16. Yeah, that's a little low. Your body. That's a little low. And again, it's tough because you have players. Because all these guys we love. Well, yeah, I mean, I like James Winston this year. I like the upside of Winston. When I look at Stanford, I kind of know what I'm going to get from it. Oh, yes. And it's like 4,000 to 4,400 yards and probably like 25 to 30 touchdowns.

I don't have any problem. If it was 30, I'd be, if you tell him he was Stafford's going to get 30? Yeah, I mean, last year was 29, and he got, he was QB7. So, yeah. Well, he's, you know, I'm banking on lucky number seven's, you know. He's two years in a row at number seven. He was number seven back in 2013, and he's been a top 10 guy for three straight years. So he's very safe. I think Matthews Ever's super safe. Yeah, and, you know, you have the smooth routes of Kenny G.

Can we have the breakout? Oh, so smooth. I think we've played this song more than the fantasy points he scored last year. Yeah, that's true. You've got another season with him. Marvin Jones. No more Eric Ebron is back. Eric Ebron. They actually have a goal line back now with Ligarad Blunt, and they haven't had a goal line back, a true goal line back in a long time. Do you think that, are you going to factor that as a negative impact?

I mean, it should be. I don't know if their offensive line will allow it to be. I mean, they, you know, every time they've tried short yardage, anything with anyone. He had many seasons with Joy. And Joy could handle himself down there. I'm not too concerned about that hurting him. He didn't have any rushing touchdowns last year. Yeah, I just, an interesting aside, because we had talked about rushing numbers for quarterbacks and what that does their points. Matt Stafford was the quarterback seven, two years in a row.

However, in 2016, he had 100 fewer passing yards and five fewer passing touchdowns. Yet, he had 100 more rushing yards and two more rushing touchdowns. In 2016? Yeah, wait. Actually, not, hold on. Now I'm confusing myself. Move on. Ignore me. We'll come back to you. All right. Philip Rivers. No, no, I was right. 2016. He had those rushing sets. Basically, my point was he was a far better passer this past year, but he had a little bit of rushing production two years ago and somehow had more points.

Yeah. So, I mean, I just see him as very safe, a late round guy that if I draft him, I don't have to worry. I don't have to think about getting a second quarterback yet. I'm just going to ride him into the season. And hopefully he has... And the sunset. Yeah, and hopefully he has a top five season again. I just don't see top five anywhere in the realm of possibilities. Once in his career, right? 2011. That's a long time ago. It was a... One of the reasons I have rivers a little lower than you guys is because of the...

I believe the range of outcomes he provides to fantasy owners. That's fine. I like him as a value quarterback. Don't get me wrong. Like he's a great late round value, but he's had finishes at or beyond the back of the QB1, QB2 range for the last six years. Last year he was eighth. I like the roster. I think he's going to be able to get by with 25 touchdowns on this roster, however, with a defense that's improving.

I just kind of, he's just kind of okay for me. I like the higher upside guys more than I like Rivers. That's how I feel about Stafford. Yeah. It's just, uh, I see these guys as nearly identical to me. Like Brooks would order both on the menu. Let's put it that way. They're a good club sandwich. Yeah. There's no problem. It's fine. It's fine. But it's he, I have him higher than Stafford because he's a little bit more consistent for this tier of quarterback. The reemergence of Keenan Allen.

He got the interceptions under control last year. They're improving the offensive line. So I still like Rivers as a right around that top 10 type of a guy. Look, the reason that I like Rivers a lot this year is the weapons. I think Melvin Gordon out of the backfield, having Keenan Allen. I believe that Hunter Henry is far better in the past catching role than Antonio Gates last year, in which case that's an improvement. Then you get Mike Williams could be a great.

you know, wide receiver stepping in. You've still got Tyrell Williams. So, I mean, to me, if you compare the weapons here between Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford, the check marks got to go to Philip Rivers. Yeah, I think that's fair. I was kind of curious to see how he performed first half to second half last year. And he was much better in the second half. Well, that was the Keener now on explosion. Well, I mean, he was, we're talking, you cut his season and half, right?

You go from a 4,000-yard pace to a 5,000-yard pace. You go from 26 touchdowns pace, just a very impressive second half. So there's a lot of reasons to kind of like their trajectory heading into the year. One guy I really like, James Winston, we have them at 12 on our consensus rankings. Maybe that's the biggest surprise. He's out ahead of Big Ben, Matt Ryan, some of those guys. Biggest surprise is that just both you and I, Andy, have him ranked higher than Mike.

Yeah, that is surprising. Mike's got him at 15, probably trying to not jinx himself here like last year. Possibly. But 3,519 wasn't impressive last season. So we're really banking on a bounce back performance, a guy who's never finished as a QB1. You're banking on the final five games of the season where through those five games, literally the overall quarterback won was James Winston. He had a massive jump. He had that shoulder injury. Do not forget.

He was also playing very poor in the first half. First eight games, only 10 touchdowns, final five games, nine touchdowns. He still had 5,069-yard pace. He still had the five interceptions over the final five games. So I'm growing concerned with James that the step into elite quarterback that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers thought they drafted. I'm concerned that that's not going to happen. And James is all.

Always just going to be okay. Would you rather have Matthew Stafford, who we just talked about? Are we talking fantasy or real life now? No, no, no, in fantasy. In the 10th round, would you rather have James than the 11th round? Like if those guys are pretty much in the same spot, heads up, you'd take Stafford over. I would take Stafford. Man, I probably would, but it's just the thought process. You could take Winston and wait and see the first couple weeks and see if he's... The replaceability of quarterback.

May it just take Winston. Like I said, quarterback won final five games. That was not Matt Stafford. So at that point in the draft, I might just go for it. Go ceiling. Yeah, knowing that I can just stream if I have to. All right. Give me something about these next three guys and then we'll hit the mailbag. Big Ben at 13. Jimmy G. at 14. He's so handsome. So handsome. And number 15, Matt Ryan. I don't know if last year we would have expected to be ranking Jimmy Garampolo ahead of Matt Ryan.

heading into 2018, but that's the way it landed. He was the QB9, by the way, Jimmy G, through weeks 13 through 17. Of all of our individual rankings, the only guy here who has a top 10 ranking from one of us is Matt Ryan. Andy, you have him up at 8, so I assume you are seeing some regression to the means and bounce back for Matt Ryan off of his atrocious.

touchdown rate this last year. Yeah, I mean, the touchdown rate was ridiculous. He only had 20 touchdowns still over 4,000 yards, still has elite weapons on the roster. You are big. Julio Touchdown Jones, they call it. Yeah, it's amazing. Julio Jones scored a touchdown in two games. Two out of 16 games, one of the best weapons in football scored. So yes, the Stephen Sarkesian effect was troublesome.

And this did not get better over the second half of the year. So you're not really banking on, ooh, I learned the system a little better in the second half. But look, this was a team that he's one year removed from the number two overall finish. I think he's a top 10 quarterback with those weapons that he has. Passing the ball out of the backfield to Freeman and to Coleman and having Julio Jones is enough for me to buy into Matt Ryan over a guy like Jimmy Garoppolo over a guy like Big Ben. But hey, if you really hate Sark, I don't blame you for keeping.

Matt Ryan, outside your top 12. The thing for Big Ben, it was a, it was a really strange start to the year. He was very poor for fantasy. Things were not jiving with the offense. And then the by week hit. After the by week, he was only, he was only out of the quarterback one range once over that time. I know I talked about Winston final five weeks, but this was since the Steelers.

This is a bigger sample size. He was a nine. He was the number one quarterback in points per game because he didn't play that final week. But it's, uh, he was sensational that second half. They figured it out. But with Todd Haley gone, there's some changes happening in Pittsburgh. Jason, how do you feel about Big Ben?

You know, I like Big Ben a lot, but I'm still, I realized this last year there wasn't the same home road split, but he has a long enough career sample size where when I look at going into the NFL draft, I'm going to look at their opening schedule. And as stupid as it sounds, I'm really, I care a lot about those first three weeks when I look at quarterback, because I figured that's who I'm drafting the most. And so if it turns out that he starts with a home stretch.

then sign me up for some Big Ben. He looked great last year. I think a star is born in Juju. You've got Antonio Brown. Great weapons there. Levy on Bell obviously gets it done. So I like Big Ben. I mean, there's not a lot of these quarterbacks where I go, I'm hesitant to draft them. I mean, I think we've got to go probably all the way down. If there's a guy that I'm more hesitant to draft, we need to go.

down to my number 13, which is Arkansas 18, in Dak Prescott, because he scares the heck out of me, man. I saw a quiet place, and that thing didn't scare me nearly as much as Dak. Oh, I love that movie. Yeah. I mean, Dak Preska, the more that I've watched Des Bryant film over the last week or so to try to figure out, what is Des, like, was it him? I'm like, dude, I've been watching a lot of college film for quarterbacks and Des Bryant film.

And the one thing that kind of sticks out is I think last year, DAC was less accurate than some of these incoming quarterbacks, and that's not a good thing. It's also what the knock on DAC was heading into the NFL. Yeah, we just saw him kind of thwart that in year one. 16 through 20, Jared Goff, Mike, you've got him up here at 14. You're the highest. I've got Patrick. You can blame Patrick Mahomes at 17 on me. I've got him at 10. I've got Patrick Mahomes at 10 overall.

With that offense, those weapons, and Andy Reid. Easily our most, our whitest gap. I have them down at 22. Fair. I understand. You know, you have to take a. Yeah, take shots. Somebody's going to be in that top 12. We're not expecting. I think it's Pat Mahomes. Dak Prescott at 18. Jason, you've got him the highest of the group. Marcus Mariotta at 19 and then Andy Dalton at 20. Oh, Andy Dalton, you love 20. You love being around 20. All right, let's answer a few questions. Mailbag. Mailbag.

Oh, the mailback. Visit the website, the fancy footballers.com, click the submit a question button, or dial our voicemail hotline like this next caller did. 302464 TFFB. Hey, footballers, love this show. This is Ian from Memphis. I have a question in my league. We have some slightly different rules. The one I'm talking about now is tight ends and wide receivers share roster position. So how does that affect your lookout on tight ends on draft day?

How does that affect top tier, you know, Grankowski, Kelsey Ertz, and how does that affect the rest? Thanks, guys. Yeah, I mean, part of the answer there is obviously if they share a roster spot and you're not backed into drafting a tight-in. So we're talking a non, there are no dedicated tight-in starting roster spots. Correct. And basically what that does is it really lowers the pool of tight-ins that are going to be drafted. I mean, Rod Rangkowski himself.

would have slotted in around the wide receiver 12 last year, 11, 12, same as Brandon Cook's points per game. So Kelsey, Ertz, Gronk, they're still going to be drafted, but they're pooled, you know, at this point with those other players. If you're not backed into starting a tight-in, don't have to start a tight-in, you're not looking to draft a late-round tight-in for any reason. No, certainly not. And you're not going to, you know, some of this will depend on scoring.

position in a standard league your tight ends like gronk might be a little bit more valuable uh you know the the third place tight in last year average 11.8 points a game in you know half point ppr that wouldn't have even been a wide receiver one so you're talking about very few guys you want to draft and you want to draft them around the range where you're drafting you know if you're if you're talking about the top three guys