Fantasy Football 2018 - Early QB Rankings

and had the season he had last year. Does it change the way you view the next season? It really, really does. The fact that he is 39 years old, they have managed this team from a roster construction standpoint to...

help him in, you know, and develop this team away from his strengths. I mean, they're not going out and getting another super high profile wide receiver that's, you know, they didn't go and try to make a run at someone there. They did try to make a run at Indomac and sue and spend their money on big piece, you know, defensive guys. They're going out and making offers for Cameron Meredith. You know, that's what they're trying to do. Yeah, and look, at the end of the day, he has to prove himself in the positive direction.

after what he did last year. So to Jason's point, if he gives you what he gave you last year, you're not going to be happy. All right, before we move on, that is the kind of player debate you're going to get in the Ultimate Draft Kit. Ultimate DraftKit.com. You can pre-order it now. It comes out on June 1st. We'll have rookie rankings in there ahead of time. And the beauty of the Ultimate Draft Kit is it equipsy for your draft and it's updated all offseason long. There are going to be over 100 player profile videos where we, and we update these as well. We update the videos.

where we profile individual players. Maybe you have a tough decision to make between a couple guys. Maybe you have a keeper decision that you have to make before the draft. We help you with the video profiles. We have all our rankings, the top 200 list, player by player blurbs and analysis. Matt Harmon's back with reception, perception, content. And if you're not aware, maybe you have heard us talk about it. You haven't checked it out at ultimate draft kit.com. Pre-order pricing is 2499.

That's the price. And you get all the tiers, all the cheat sheets, all the breakdowns, all the projections, all the auction values, consistency charts. It is jam-packed. This is our, what did you call it, the magnum opus? Yes. Of the podcast. It's our baby, too. This is what we care for and pour ourselves. We listen to your feedback. We survey every single purchaser at the end of every season to get your feedback about how to improve, how to make it faster, how to make it better. This is the way you dominate your draft.

plain and simple. The UDK is what it is. The UDK Ultimate Draft Kit.com. We want to thank Pristine Auction for sponsoring today's show. This is the place you need to go for all your sports. Memorabilia. All of our signed jerseys always come for pristine auction. Who's on the wall today, Brooks? We got A.J. Green. A.J. Green signed jersey for prices that you cannot believe. Here's some things that have recently gone on at Pristine Auction. A signed Stefan Diggs jersey. $55.

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Yes. He finds something. Brooks, you find something. He's a man of routine. Yeah, you find something you like, and there's nothing wrong with it, right? I mean, that's just your personality. That's all true. Yeah, I mean, you find something you like, you get it every time. I don't take the risk. The next guy on this list is you would never order him, Brooks. Nah. Deshawn Watson, tied for seventh on our consensus quarterback rankings.

And to me, he's trying something new in the landscape of quarterback. Oh, yeah. He is flipping that menu over to that, oh, chef's favorite. I've never seen this before. And we've never seen what happened last year. The problem is I fear that it comes with that market price tag. Oh, when you get the menu and you look and it says, how much is it? That's when you get the fish. Right. It's always at the market price. Exactly. How much is in your wallet? You know, I've seen Deshaun Watson.

in drafts, his range is unbelievable. But if you actually go to some of the higher end, like, you know, some of the sites where the big money entries and you play those level of best ball, the ADP on Deshaun Watson has him oftentimes as the third quarterback off the board. Yes. Because people are chasing the... In redraft, he's fourth right now. Yeah, the unfathomable...

production he was having. He wasn't, you know, it's like, okay. It's the Michael Vick effect. There's a lot of Deshawn Watson, Carson Wins, two great quarterbacks, both got injured, both coming back, but you can't really compare what Deshawn Watson was doing to what Carson Witts was doing. You can't compare what Deshaun Watson was doing to what Carson Wants was doing. How many? Fifty-five.

No, it's not stopped today. That one was completely unintentional, too. Guess what Greg Olson's current ADP is right now, by the way. But that season, the season that Manning had 55 touchdowns, got to control myself. And that was an 8.3 touchdown percentage. Deshawn Watson, 9.3! Almost one out of every 10 passes was going for a touchdown.

You got to control yourself. Yes. That's impossible. Okay, fine. Even the most, the heartiest of Deshaun Watson truthers have to admit that's impossible. But what can he actually do? When we're out of the realm of the stratosphere and castles on clouds, where can he possibly go? Here's what we do now. He can win you a week by himself.

maybe you make the argument that the consistency at that production level is impossible, but he at least showed us that he has the capability of blowing you away on the field for one game at a time to being one of those types. Maybe that's how it goes this year. But I cannot imagine if he's healthy, you're not going to get a handful of games where he puts together that kind of efficiency. Like Cam Newton. Yes. Cam Newton will give you huge monster games. I took a look back the past five years.

There have been five times when a quarterback played all 16 games and finished with a touchdown rate of over 7%. The following year, with those five quarterbacks, that's Peyton Manning, Rogers, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson. There was an average drop in their touchdown percent of 2.7. So now you take 2.7 away from 9, and you're still very, very happy. But my point is...

When these quarterbacks, and these are elite level quarterbacks, maybe you don't want Matt Ryan in there, whatever. When they've had the monster season, there is always a fall from grace. And you just, you regress to your average because that's just what happens. Yeah, I completely agree. If Deshaun Watson comes out next year and is pretty much a middle of the pack quarterback, not going to be surprised. So you might be asking yourself, well, with all those things said, why would, why is he tied for seven?

in our consistency rankings. And the reason is because you have to take a shot. You have to swing for the fences to see if he is. You know, I tried to just, you know, I was anti-Dishon Watson throughout so many weeks last year. Like, it's not going to keep happening. It's impossible to keep happening. But he plays with a chip on his shoulder. He's done it his entire career. He did it at Clemson where. Yes, great weapons. Every time. Hopkins and Fuller. Yeah. And every time that, you know, people count them out.

If you count him out from this injury, I just don't want to be on that side anymore where you go maybe Deshaun Watson is just truly a, you know, he's what he's been his entire career in college and wasn't Dabo Sweeney, the Clemson head coach, didn't he call him Michael Jordan? He did. You pass on him, you're passing on Michael Jordan. At least seven games in, he's dead right. He's the type of quarterback where it's like I plan usually when I draft a quarterback late. I know I'm going to drop him. I don't ever fear dropping a quarterback.

But with Deshaun Watson, if he were to hit, it's great. But if not, just drop. And, yeah, except for you have to pay too much. Yeah, that's true. Andrew Luck comes in at number seven. And, guys, this is the human game of Jenga right here. I don't know what to do with Andrew Luck, but I feel like it is, I feel like you're, you got to be afraid. Oh, yeah. I just read on Deadspin that he has not thrown a real football yet. He's only thrown a small football.

He hasn't thrown the Duke yet. Yeah, the Duke is the name of the NFL game ball. That's what he calls. My Duke is very different. Best joke ever. Andy couldn't handle that one. I haven't at 11, and that is with a fear of the unknown here. Jason at 5, Mike at 8. Your Duke is John Wayne. This is health. I know what you're talking about. This is health. This really is. The reason that he is up this high at 7.

It's because I have him at five. And I have statted him out at five with health because I know what I'm doing with Andrew Luck this year, and it's a pretty straightforward thing. I'm watching preseason. If he's playing in preseason, then he's healthy, and I will have him basically at five. I know what Andrew Luck is. He's great. He's going to have. I mean, is there any fear of, let's say he's perfectly healthy, but you don't throw a football in two years? I am not.

overly worried, especially given the price that he's going to, you know, he's going to have a huge discount of price. This is, again, those are the type of guys I'm going to take the swing on. If he is right, he's going to be great. He's going after golf right now with the uncertainty. And so, you know, that's why I have him ranked five. But if come preseason, which is still before everyone's, you know, normal keeper redraft league drafts, if he's not playing in preseason.

he'll be 20 on my quarterback. I mean, he won't be even remotely draftable. That's two years of trying to get healthy. So I have chosen to give him the health. And Mike, you're in between. Yeah, I'm just hedging here at eight because if he's played 15 games or more, he's a top 10 quarterback. And you take out his rookie year and he's a top five quarterback. So.

If he plays, I'm expecting good things. Maybe they just convert him to running back based of what I've seen him do running the football. He's a big boy. Just take throwing out of the equation. Take it out. All right. Let's go. I'm going to give you the next three on this list because I actually do want to talk about. This next one, man. Jason's ranking of the next guy. Yeah, Carson Wentz. I'm at six, Mike seven. Jason's got him at 12. Get bodied. I know. I know the argument that Jason has, which is that.

you know, somehow he'll be less aggressive. Carson Wins has come out and said, he had the exact same, I guess his is slightly worse than Deshaun Watson. But Jason has a, I mean, he's just a great passer. I mean, that's Carson Wins, if you were talking about a player that leaned on, you know, rushing yardage to accomplish what he did last year, that wasn't the case. 3,200 yards, 33 passing touchdowns. I still think that, you know.

Their head coach, Doug Peterson, came out and said that they're optimistic. They're hoping that Carson Wins will be smarter about using his legs, putting himself in difficult positions. I'm leaning on the arm in the film that I see from the arm and the weapons and the offensive line. And so I've got him at 6, Mike 7. He finished last year as the QB 5 despite missing three games. So, Jason, you've got him down at the 12 range. Yeah, I've got him down at 12. My last quarterback won.

And, you know, it's interesting. We're going back to back to back, injured quarterbacks here with looking at, you know, Andrew Luck and why would I rank him high? Watson Luck. Right. Winston. But the issue here is due to the time of year that Wins got injured, you're not going to see Wins playing a lot of these games. You're not going to know when you need to know. I don't believe about his health. And.

Yeah, he only had, I mean, he still had 300 rushing yards, which is that matters quite a bit for a quarterback. A lot of his fantasy production came from that. But it was more than that. It's his scrambling ability, his ability to get outside the pocket on scripted or unscripted runs. To be able to do that, it was a massive injury, and it was super late in the year. I think Carson Wins's future is bright, but I really do worry about how that injury will affect his style of play. I mean, I've still got him as a quarterback one, so I'm not sitting here going,

Oh, Carson's done. He's going to have a terrible year. But I think he's going to lose quite a bit off of that magical season we saw last year. And in addition to that, Mike, you brought this up already, the touchdown rate. He was over seven. Yeah. On an average, you know, losing 2% off of that, it's going to hurt. Frank Wright came out in the new head coach of the Colts. He said when they warned him last year about protecting himself, it went out of one, it went in one ear out the other.