The TRUTH: QBs Part 2 + Deep Dives, Pendulum Swings - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/21

year. What was the truth? The truth is he stunk this year. Okay. Yeah. Based off of what evidence? Yeah. Where's the data, Jason? Yeah. The data was between, uh, the ears, just both your eyes and your brain. If you watched it, it was not a good experience. And I doubt he plays football next year. It's certainly not going to be for the Jets. And I, I don't look out there and see a bunch of franchises that are like, I want to do what the Jets did this last year. So, uh, yeah, the, the risk benefit analysis on Aaron Rogers, bringing them into your team.

Let's talk about the next man up though. In green Bay, Jordan love. This was one of the bigger storylines. You talk about Kyler and him letting you down in relation to your draft capital. Jordan love comes in at 17 and fantasy finish 15th in consistency was drafted as the quarterback 10 in the seventh round. So you did think that, you know, there was a part of the season before I traded for Lamar Jackson and our league of record where my, my tandem of quarterbacks was Kyler and Jordan love. And I really thought, boy, these are going to be two guys in the second half of the season.

You can bounce back. Yeah. You can bounce back and forth between them for mediocre production week through week seven. That part of like the season for Jordan love was we're ready. We are. We are absolutely ready. Week one. Like week one had some really weird stuff. Jaden Reed period of time in the, in the, in that game in Brazil, it was weird. He still managed to be the quarterback. 11 gets hurt right at the back at the end of the game comes back immediately as the quarterback to a down game quarterback for quarterback 11. Here we go. We're ready. Jordan.

Breakouts happen. Jordan love is going to continue off of a, what he started the past year. And then. So here's the, here's the truth, the truth for Jordan love. And we talked about it throughout the season. It was a touchdown problem in part caused by Josh Jacobs greatness. Josh Jacobs to start the season. We, you know, we spoke about the touchdown regression, how many carries he had without scoring a touchdown on the season? And that pendulum, I mean, that thing got momentum, the other direction and flew off the, whatever the middle part of a pendulum is. Yeah. No, that middle part of a pendulum.

Because the, I think that's also the pendulum, the last 10, the hanger. I don't know. What are you talking about? What's it hanging on? You know what I mean? Like the little. You're talking about where it's attached. Yeah. The attachment. You're saying there's so much weight on one side that it just popped the other side off or what? I'm saying this thing, it was, it was, it was propelled and it flew off because Josh Jacobs scored. You know your pendulum. Score. Yeah. Oh yeah. Two or three touchdowns. It seems like every single, every single week, the last 10 games, Jordan Love, who, you

know, last season and to start this season, his touchdown percentage was really, really good. He was great in the red zone. He always got it done there. And then the last 10 games of the season, if you put that on a 17 full season game pace, 17 total touchdowns that you can't have that for fantasy. This was, uh, by the way, let me give you the data real quick. 7% great. 21% good. 43% bust. So that's, that's a problem. This was a little bit like a Philadelphia light situation though. We talked about what affected Jalen hurts in our last truth series.

This became Saquon's team. That's how winning happened. That was the Packers with Josh Jacobs. Like you said, that was how winning was happening. And so you didn't need to use him as much. So going forward next year, do you expect them to continue the recipe of writing Josh Jacobs and making that the foundation of this offense? I think there'll be more balance. I think you're going to get like, if I had to predict the next five years of Jordan Love's career, I think you're going to get about three meaningful fantasy seasons in that group. But I don't think it's going to be one of those things where that's the only way they win football games.

He's the quintessential pocket passer that is good enough to have a great season and not great enough to be reliable. Joe Burrow, Joe Burrow to me, if he doesn't get injured, he will be good as a pocket passer every single season for fantasy football purposes. A Jordan Love, a CJ Stroud, these guys have to have the phenomenal passing touchdown season. And those are not, you know, that's just not a sticky stat. You know what you need is you need one wide receiver that brings it every week. You need one dude that can bring big numbers every week for Green Bay, and they don't have that.

And it's like looking ahead next year, what do they do? Like you have Romeo Dobbs and Jaden Reed. I think they're both in their final year next year. Kyle, correct me if I'm wrong. And then you have Christian Watson tears his ACL in week 18. So, I mean, he will not be ready to start the season. So, I'd say. Nor has he ever been the guy that you're going to be able to count on every week anyway. Yeah, he hasn't been able to consistently get it. But at least when he's on the field, Jordan Love is better. It helps the other wide receivers.

So, it'll be watching them try to figure out do they get a true number one or do they just go with these guys who are all good, but no one on that team is elite. 18 was Matthew Stafford. I guess we're not going to talk much about Matthew Stafford. There's not a bunch to discuss. He was very mid-level. And I really wanted to make sure that in today's episode we got to Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young. Oh, I can't wait. Those two players have a little bit more conversation needed for next year. As does this guy. 19 is CJ Stroud.

This was more catastrophic by far. This was worse than the Kyler one. Oh, yeah. Because he was in the fourth round. Fourth round. CJ Stroud. Part of the story was the rookie season. Let's build on it. So, keep that in mind, all of you rookies. Bo Nix and Jayden Daniels and Caleb. It doesn't always get better. The other part of the story was, okay, we paid. We paid our guy. Right? We paid Nico Collins. We brought in Stefan Diggs. And we've got Tink Dale going into the sophomore season. And they also won football games. So, I'll give them credit there.

But zero great games. Six percent good. Which means that this is a guy who he busted 63% of the time. Whoa. So, 63% of the time you're under 15 points. And all the rest, basically, you're under 21. This was, I would say. You can't win with that. A pretty good hit for us in draft season. He was on our bus list in the ultimate draft kit. We brought up a lot of the similarities between Baker Mayfield's amazing rookie season. When they then bring in Odell Beckham Jr. And it's hard to remember it. But sophomore year, he was the most overdrafted.

Like, it's a guarantee that you're going to see a complete level up. Which needs to happen to be drafted that high. And you just don't want to draft guys at the presumed level up. That we haven't seen yet. None of us thought it would be this bad. No, not like this. By any means. I mean, C.J. Stroud was one of the most fun players to watch in his rookie season. And going forward now, I think there are a lot of questions. Especially for fantasy purposes. Is very Jordan Love. Yeah, I'm not worried that Stroud will be. I think three out of the next five years, C.J. Stroud will be very relevant for fantasy.

He had major injuries to the wide receiver position. Yeah. I thought he played really great down the stretch. I thought the playoff game he played great. With what he has. The slowest man on earth. Dalton Schultz running, you know, up the middle of the field. Yeah, you don't watch. Like, even these really, really bad fantasy games. You don't watch from an NFL perspective. And think, man, C.J. Stroud, maybe he really doesn't have it. Oh, he's not that good. It wasn't like that. Joe Mixon. Yes, it was Joe Mixon. The same way with Josh Jacobs for Jordan Love. It was C.J. Stroud is playing good ball.

He's doing what he needs to win NFL games. But for fantasy football purposes, he's not running the ball. And if the touchdowns go in the running game, which now with Joe Mixon instead of Damian Pierce, a lot more likely, that's just not okay for fantasy. If you don't throw at least two passing touchdowns in a game while you're not a mobile rushing quarterback, you're taking an L at that position. He was on the bus list from this past summer. He is at a 5.9 consistency percentage. Oh, 5.9? 5.9. Mike was the one that really kind of put the word out that, look, we had a few prolific games that everyone saw last year.

And they made you believe that this was going to be a consistent thing, but we didn't see it consistently yet. I think the Raiders need to hire Bobby Slowick. I would love to see that as a head coach. Are you still in on Bobby? No. Oh, okay. No, I am not. I'm not. I'm not the Raiders are where the coaches go to die. Yeah, just take them off this team so they got to get Stroud someone in. I got you. His passing up a head coaching job didn't work like Ben Johnson's. No. No, it did not. I think Jason's, the point is the strongest one.

The bet against CJ Stroud was not this. It was just, you're paying such a high equity pick for something that has to take, for a player to have to take a massive, massive step forward. It's just, it's not worth, it's not worth the risk. When there are other guys later in the draft at this position, which is a replaceable position for fantasy. So, it's just, it, I'm sure there'll be someone who gets gassed up into the fifth round and you'll go, maybe not. There always is. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, because let's be honest, when it hits, it's really fun and exciting and awesome and cool.

Yes. Emotionally, yes. Yes. All right, we'll take a break. Where's Jaden Daniels go next year? Like, second, third round? He will go, he will go very early. Probably quarterback three. Yeah. Maybe quarterback two over Hertz. Yeah. Or Josh Allen, Lamar, and then it'll probably be, yeah. It'll be three, four. That's where he probably belongs. All right, we'll take a break. We'll talk about a few more relevant names when we talk truth of the quarterback position. All right. I want to breeze through. We got three more names that I want to talk about. Tua, we know what the season was, the concussion, the threat to his career.

He was not a great fantasy quarterback once he returned. The way the offense functioned, downfield passing versus short area, Johnny Smith. It's what is the future? What is the future of the Miami Dolphins? Where, I guess, is this the offense going forward? Where Tyreek Hill is still, still faster than everybody, but you just, you can't come through with good fantasy performances because this is how the offense is running. It's running short stuff. It's running on dump offs to A-chan and Johnnie Smith. That's what we get moving forward because that is, that's a big bummer if that's what's going to be the case.

I think that is going to be what the case is. It's like when the Chiefs just deleted everybody for us. Yeah. I don't know how much I want to give credence to the narrative of the concussion worries. Get the ball out quick. Don't let plays develop down the field that can put Tua at more risk. It still worked. You know, they won games down the stretch where they were really close. You know, they started so poorly, especially with Tua's injury, lost a lot of games. They dug themselves a hole that wasn't really their fault. And they did get close to the playoffs.

So you can't really argue it didn't work. And even from a fantasy perspective, you know, the second half, he was the consistency rank of the quarterback 14. Not winning you championships by any means, but so much better than what we saw earlier in this season. I would imagine it's more of the same, especially since they decided to keep McDonald's at head coach. I would. He's McDonald's now? Yeah. He's always been McDonald's. You don't know, do you? No. Yeah. He's been McDonald's. No. He's not been McDonald's. That's Seattle. No. He's McDaniels. No. Check tape. McDonald's. Kyle. You're the footballer's historian. No, I know.

I know. But where it started, I'm pretty confident that McDonald's was Mike McDaniel. I'm pretty sure. You're dumb. Well, I know that. Drake Mays 21, Cousins 22. Let's go to Anthony Richardson, the fifth round pick who finished at 23. He had a consistency rate of 14. 27th in the first half. Technically fifth in the second half, but did not play a lot of games. 18% great. 36% good. 64% busts. Okay. I don't know. Do you want to? Everything will be completely up to ADP with Anthony Richardson. If he, if Anthony Richardson is left for the scraps of the waiver wire and he's a double digit guy.

Sure. You want to play a game? Oh, let's do it. I want to play a game. Anthony Richardson. Versus who? We're going, well, it's not a versus. The game can be different. You know what I mean? It's just a game. Oh, okay. Okay. Out of 43 qualifying quarterbacks. Okay. What rank was he in? ADOT. Average depth of target. Oh. I mean, he would have done it fly. 43 relevant quarterback, 43 qualifying quarterbacks with 150 pass attempts. So 43 guys. Checkdowns and bombs. I'm going to say, I'm going to say he's 10th. Mike? Yeah. I was going to guess top 10 area.

So let's go. Oh, you guys are way off. He's number one. Oh, okay. All right. Number one in average depth of target. Deep throw rate. Well, that's very high. Very high. Number one. Yeah. Out of 43. Passer rating. On deep throws or just in general? No, just passer rating. Who? 43. I'm going to go. I'll go 42. 43. All right. Dang it. Out of 43. Completion percentage. Something I brought up a lot during our live show. We'll go 43. Oh, we got 43 out of 43. What about adjusted completion percentage, though? Let's adjust that for drops. For drops. Oh, okay.

Well, then that's 43. 43. Oh, come on. I'm crushing this. You just got to go number one of 43, Mike. Off target rate. 43. Oh, see? See? This is an easy game. This is not a game. Don't worry. There's one more. Yeah, this is just piling on. Checkdown rate. Like, I don't think he checked down a lot. He had screens, but he didn't check down. That is correct. 43. Okay. Yeah. So that was a Ricky Bobby style. If you ain't first, you're last. Well, that is. Look at his second half, right? We talk about the consistency score in the second half.

He was number five. That's because in those games that he did play, and he exited some of those, he had 28 points, 20 points, 21 points in three of the five. The others, though, 13.9 and 13. It's really, you can get big game-winning performances with him. Here's the future of Anthony Richardson. That's going to happen. He's either going to be a starting quarterback, and if he is, he will be relevant for fantasy football from time to time, if not all the time. Yeah, I think if he. Or, he will not be a starting quarterback. I agree. And the clock. He has one more year.

He's got one more year. He's got one more month. That might be true. To start next season, if a month in, he's played four bad games, they're going to put the hook out there and pull him off stage. Well, because you're going to have a, what, Shane Steichen is going to be. Hot seat. Hot seat next year. Like, everything around the Colts is terrifying. It's all going to come down to, did you make the right pick with Anthony Richardson? But from a fantasy perspective, this was obviously one of the biggest busts in fantasy football. We did not see on film things that made me believe it will get fixed.

But what we did see on film was incredible ability when it worked. His deep passes that connected were amazing. His physicality, his running ability, and goal line touchdowns were what you want. They were Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts-esque. And so, this is a player, because of how bad he was so often, I don't think he gets gassed up next year. Well, look, one of the storylines in the offseason that I was concerned about was injury. He missed two games this year with a hip and oblique injury. He missed two more weeks with a back injury. He missed a play with tired.

Oh, gosh. Dude, that was so bad. That was the worst thing I've ever seen. That was so, so bad. Why did you come off the field? Were you hurt? Oh, no. I was just tired. You're the quarterback. He made plays, but you expect players to be able to make some plays. I would say he made about a play 47% of the time. That's the problem. You cannot be a fantasy-relevant quarterback, and I broke all the data down when we did the bust episode. You can't do it at 47% passing. It has never been done. It's not possible. You almost have to be at 60% or above.

That is a huge gap. He levels up or he flames out. You're right, Andy. He's not going to be the quarterback for 17 games next year unless he is good. I will be drafting him next year. What I'm saying, in the double-digit rounds as my second quarterback, just to see what happens in week one or two. Same as Kyler. Same as Love. See what happens. The hope for him has always been, and the reason he was drafted so high is really Josh Allen and the transition that he was able to make as a quarterback that had a 50%-ish completion completion percentage for a year and a half.