The TRUTH: QBs Part 2 + Deep Dives, Pendulum Swings - Fantasy Football Podcast for 1/21

Yes. You weren't spending every single week thinking, oh, I got to find a way. Should I... I think I should start Travis Etienne this week. You just went, well, that sucks. You lit the pick on fire. And you found someone else to try to get you fantasy points. Kyler, the whole season... I mean, the thing is... 44% of his games were busts. That is awful. And he was so much worse in the second half. Because the first half of the season, his consistency score was number five. So he really was like the drug you shouldn't have. It's like, ooh, you like this.

This feels good. You've got something nice here. Boom. You're addicted. Now you're on the streets. That was Kyler. Yeah. Kyler had a... Put people on the streets? Yeah. I mean, homeless... Whoa! Wow! This was a situation where you ended up in a meth house if you kept with Kyler Murray all season long. We're getting to the point now where Kyler... He is... He'll give you a Jay Cutler game, right? He'll give you the big performance from time to time. But we're at the point now where the excuses are... We're running out of excuses for Kyler. Oh, all he needs is a top-tier wide receiver option.

So let's draft Marvin Harrison that you can't turn into one. Trey McBride, best tight end in football, maybe. That's not enough. You can't throw for 4,000 yards. You can't... 21 touchdowns. Didn't run the football when he needed to. You know, you talk about what Jaden Daniels does well. He picks his spots to run, and he always picks the right spot, it seems like. Only 13% great games. That's a departure from the Kyler Murray we've seen before. 38% good. 44% bust. You know, him as a running quarterback, over 500 yards rushing, you're always going to have the ceiling possibility. But that is part of the drug, right?

It's like, I just need a little bit. You think you've got a floor. Usually with mobile rushing quarterbacks, it's like, well, we know he's going to get 30, 40, 50 yards a game. So you're starting with a 3, 4, 5-point baseline in fantasy points scored. But the issue with Kyler this year was sometimes he just didn't run. And that was the success or failure for fantasy purposes. In games where he had 20 or more rushing yards, he averaged 21 fantasy points per game. Yay, great. But then in games where he had fewer than 20 rushing yards, it was 12 and a half fantasy points.

So there were so many times as a Cardinal fan that I'm watching these games, I'm like, why aren't you running there? Scramble. You have a superpower. You literally are so much faster than everyone on the field. And he just chooses to not exploit it. It's like when Superman is Clark Kent. And he's like, Clark Kent, he can't be in this sport. My dad's going into the tornado. I can't do it. Because of the glasses. Yeah, because it's Clark Kent. People will know. I think Jason made kind of the point on Kyler that should be seen, what the truth is, is he never became a better passer this year.

His good games were when he ran. It wasn't like sometimes you got a great passing game. Do you know he had 12 games with two or fewer touchdowns? And most of those were 0 or 1? He only had a three-touchdown game early in the year. And then he had week 18 when no one cared and he threw four touchdowns. Otherwise, you literally didn't get anything in the passing game that you expected from him. 21 touchdowns. It's a really, really disappointing year. Very, very disappointing. And possibly even more disappointing is that next year I have to leave the margin that things get better.

Because I believe that Marvin Harrison gets better. Yeah, I would agree with that. I really do. And it's like, well, part of that will be his connection with Kyler and Kyler getting more done in the passing game. And this is not me saying in January, like, I am so in on Kyler Murray. It's, I hate that that has to even be an option. Because I want to be out. I agree. I want to be out. But he... He'll be in the double-digit round. He'll be around. He'll manage to pull us back in. If he's a ninth-round pick, he's one of those mobile quarterbacks that falls towards the double-digit rounds.

You highlight and target those guys. That's why, you know, Jaden Daniels was my guy for Andy. Because he was, like, the last drafted quarterback that scrambles. I feel really good about that now. Yeah. That worked out pretty well. But, you know, this is the truth series. You're also going to go into next year seeing, hey, Kyler was a top-10 quarterback this year in fantasy. He finished as the quarterback 10. I mean, that was not the experience. And so, I think you've got to pump the brakes and be cautious next year when drafting him. Yeah. Yeah, I think that's his story.

So, we'll take a quick break and we'll jump back into some more names. All right. Done with Kyler. Moving on to number 12 on our list. Brock Purdy. Consistency rank was higher than his fantasy finish. He was eighth in consistency. Seventh in the first half. Twelfth in the second half. I feel like Brock Purdy did the best he could do this year. I am in complete agreement. No Brandon Ayuk. No Christian McCaffrey for almost all year. And you know what I'm going to say? No Debo. Yeah. Not really. 47% good. 40% bust. He will always be fringe. Ran for 323 yards.

That's nice. Five touchdowns on the ground. But all the injuries to the offensive line. Even left tackle. Right? You know, you talk about protecting Brock Purdy. I think he did the most with what he had in a absolute trash season for the 49ers. Yeah. I'm in complete agreement. I mean, it was last year with an additional game. You know, he was a 4,000 yard passer and a 31 touchdown. That's what he put up on the season. It was a 7% touchdown percentage for percent of his attempts that turned into a touchdown. And this year it plummeted all the way down to 20.

He is like, he is what we talk about where a pocket passer can just, it can fluctuate so tremendously. Not just a, oh, I went from 35 down to 30. It's like, no, this is what can happen. If the team around you doesn't hold up, things fall apart for these types of guys. Even though, I mean, at the beginning Brock Purdy was kind of keeping things alive with those, with running a little bit. So, next year, once we get everybody in, seeing what the team looks like, Brock Purdy will be, he'll be a break glass. He's not someone who's going to draft, but perfect quarterback too.

That's what I was going to bring up. But I think in super flex leagues, Brock Purdy is a name that I will be much more excited about because he is pretty consistent. You know, he was the consistency rank of number eight. So, that's great if you're drafting him as your second quarterback. The issue with Brock Purdy, and I think you will always have this issue, is the lack of great games. You know, he only had two games that qualified as great this season. He's not going to win you a championship. So, if you're in a single quarterback league, he's not taking you to, you know, beyond the playoffs to win championships.

It's just not his style because this is a run first team. If they're doing great, they're going to have rushing touchdowns. You do wonder, you know, the offseason is going to be a commitment of money to Brock Purdy. Yeah. It's also the last small window for Christian McCaffrey in the NFL. So, you do wonder if some of the identity of this offense could change over time. They gave Brandon Ayuk that money. He'll be back. So, that would be something to watch. Justin Herbert came in at 13. Justin Herbert never had a great game. No games of over 26 points. The story for him, 504 pass attempts.

This was a guy that had almost 700 two years ago. He finished 13 in consistency as well. This was not a fantasy relevant guy, but this was a player that you saw the transition over the second half of the year where their neutral pass rate, yards per game, EPA per pass, explosive pass plays. They all went up tremendously from week six on. So, you saw the writing on the wall. I said the entire year, the Chargers were a team that was a couple players away to me. A difference maker a little bit more in the running game, I think, than J.K. Dobbin.

Somebody that can catch the ball would have meant a lot. And then another prolific wide receiver option or tight end option. I don't care which one. Whatever they take. You know, Ladd McConkie, Quentin Johnson, if you want them to be your guys, then you need a more prolific tight end and a more prolific pass catching running back. You're right on the edge, I think. But you do know that Harbaugh, if he gets his way, would love to run the football and play defense. Yeah. I mean, that's historically what it's been. It'll be their decision in the draft or free agency, I guess, is going to be fascinating because they do.

They need. I mean, McConkie could be like a 1A. I think McConkie could be great, but you do need somebody else. But they will put a priority of some kind to the running back position. So it's like, which weapon do they invest in heavier? And I think that will say a lot to what their plans are for the next year. Jason, let me ask you a quick question about Herbert before we move on. Will Justin Herbert be a fantasy relevant quarterback over the next five years? Yeah, I really do think he will be. Harbaugh wants to play defense and run the ball, but he was a quarterback.

And he sees what he has in Justin Herbert as, I mean, you just watch how he talks about Justin Herbert. Find yourself someone who loves you the way that he loves Justin Herbert. The first month of the season, when they started out running, playing defense, they were only letting Herbert throw the ball 22 times a game on average. From that point forward, they had their bye week. And you saw 31 pass attempts a game the rest of the season to a lot of success. I think they'll end up with a better weapon or two. I expect them to really try to get a tight end.

Maybe Tyler Warren, the rookie, you know, I think he'll be associated with this team. Will Disley is fun. We love playing the drop. But his utilization showed how good a legitimately good tight end would be for this team. That would help in the run game. You know, kind of a dual threat tight end would be great. So I think the talent of Herbert will not, you know, it won't be put to the side over the next five years for fantasy purposes. Caleb Williams at 14, consistency of 16. This was not the dream season you would have hoped for. Head coaching change.

Weird. You know, 68 sacks taken, most in the NFL. 19% great, 31% good. 56% bust. Not relevant for fantasy. There was a small moment. I remember during the season after weeks five and six going into the bye coming out against Washington, who, you know, their defense hadn't really stepped up yet. That week, eight game was the defining moment to me of Caleb Williams season. It was, it was the, they were four and two and they never recovered. So he took a million sacks. I mean, he, he put the Sam Darnold, uh, playoff performance into routine. He was pressured like crazy.

He was, um, 69% catchable target rate. So 44 out of 47 quarterback. So that's your red alert. That was your like, Hey, you're not, you got to do a lot more at the NFL level than extending a play and making a wild across your body throw and a highlight throw. It was, um, the normal plays, the normal NFL plays were not there for Caleb Williams. No, no sustained drive. He showed, uh, flashes of why he was drafted. Number one. I saw enough to believe that he will get better. I think bringing in Ben Johnson as the head coach is fantastic news for hopefully being able to develop Caleb Williams and give him a system where, Hey, let's, let's learn how to take the easy stuff.

The on time stuff. Like let's work on you being on time. Hit that leg, you know, hit that third, that fifth step drop. Hit your leg. Unload. You know, uh, use the slot receiver more. I think that this will be really good for Caleb Williams progress going forward. But rookie year was overall a disaster. I mean, the few games he had that were good were against, you know, Carolina, Jacksonville, Indy, the, the end of the year, a couple of games against Detroit when they lost all their defensive players. For the most part, when he played top half defenses, he was abysmal.

What are your odds with Ben Johnson and all the history in Chicago of quarterback struggles? Only 3,500 yards. Didn't break that 4,000 mark this year. What do you put the odds of it working with, with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams? Cause it, you know, on one hand you could, you could have that perfect, you know, coach, offensive mind, play calling. It could all work out. On the other hand, you could get a Kyler Murray situation that didn't work. You know, Cliff Kingsbury and Kyler in Arizona. Give me your percentage chance of success. I'm, I'm on the optimistic side, but it's not, you know, I like.

Like 70? 60. No, I think I'm more like 60%. I think it's going to work out. I'll be interested in two years. I'm, I'm 50, 50. That's about where I'm at. I was really discouraged and disappointed with what I didn't see, which was a improvement over time. Yeah. A man who has any composure in the pocket. I mean, he just, he's running around with his hair on fire. Yeah. He did have. I think he was playing the VR at half speed. You know what I mean? That's what it seemed like. It's so much faster. It's like, dude, speed it up in that VR.

You put it in the wrong setting? He put it in the wrong setting because he's like, I'm here for the story. He couldn't compete. I'm here for the gameplay. I'm here for the story. Yes. Oh, it's easy mode. That's my way of playing the video game. Caleb, you, you need, you need to make it challenging. And then Kyler's got the headset on, but it is Call of Duty in there. Oh, it's virtual reality Call of Duty. I saw you. Totally working on things, coach. Don't worry about it. Did you, did you guys. Kiltacular. I assume. All right, does Call of Duty have a Kiltacular?

I have no idea. We'll just go with it. Well, I assume that both of you saw, well, for Ben Johnson was hired, the troll by those two teenagers. Yes. Did you get to see this? No, I did not. So two teenagers got his number and they texted him. Hey, it's me, Ben Johnson. I'm your new head. Got Caleb Williams' number? Yeah. Oh, okay. Texted Caleb Williams and said, hey, it's me, Ben Johnson. I'm your new head coach. Really excited to work with you. And then they like, so he put that number in and then they FaceTimed him and it's all

on video. And then the kids are like, hey man, it's me, Ben Johnson. And then they're like, then they like shrink and they go, I'm really sorry for this man. See you later. Oh man. It was, it was. That's how you do impressions. You just got to say your name. It's me, Ben Johnson, everybody. It's me, David Gettleman. Well, that's more like, it's me. Number 15. Dave. Number 15, Geno Smith, 22 in consistency, tells you everything you need to know about him as a fantasy quarterback, which was odd. That's not good. We almost took him out of here. We took a couple of quarterbacks out to talk about.

We're not going to talk about Aaron Rodgers today. Like you're just not even worth it? Yeah. It's just not worth it. How was he only 16 over the first half? Because, um, well, I mean, it was a rough year for Geno Smith. He had 21 passing touchdowns and four of them came. Six of the first nine weeks, he was a top 10, top 12 guy. Sorry. I don't know. That just, that's wild to me. Like I said, I mean, 17 touchdowns going into week 18. Some of those weeks, if you, if you remember how the season got started, because we don't

do this based on quarterback rank. We do it based on score. So like the first two weeks were great for him. You know, he's the quarterback seven, quarterback five. And that was maybe okay for fantasy. But as far as his performance, he didn't get 18 points in either of those weeks. It wasn't a really good fantasy performance. It just kind of the league stunk to, to, to start the weeks. He set a career high in completion percentage. Um, he's 34 years old. I am of the more pessimistic side of what, you know, Smith brings to the table. I think he's very capped.

I think I will not be, I will not be enthusiastic about their passing situation with DK Metcalf in particular. Um, obviously you saw JSN get it done kind of ties in with that completion percentage, but you know, it's starting to look more like 2022 was a very outlier type of year for Geno Smith. He had 30 touchdowns in 2022, the last two years, 20 and 21. And so that's, you know, that's just not a fantasy relevant guy. That's a two quarterback guy. Yeah. The, I'm a little more optimistic than you are on him, Andy, but I think that the Seahawks

are going to be a very, very run heavy team. Well, they, they did make the change at offensive coordinator. Uh, the grub experience was a one and done. Yeah. They, they're also clearly going to move on from Tyler Lockett. He's going to cost them too much money. So maybe at this point in the career, it's addition by subtraction, but it is subtraction of a, of a really valuable asset that Geno's used for the last several years. I actually think he'll just renegotiate with them. Really? I do. Uh, Aaron Rogers, we're skipping him at 16. Yeah. He's, I mean, we don't know if he's going to play football next year and he stunk this