Early 2018 Values + Movie/Player Comparisons

is that he's a bad runner. He is a third-down pass catcher. I don't think anybody's been stuffed more than Devante Booker on third down since 2016. He doesn't run for big plays. He's never had a 20-plus yard run and 200 carries, so this is not making you excited. But as a third-down running back, he's been great. 9.8 yards of target since the beginning of 2016 season on third down. That's best in the NFL. Does not get stuffed on third down. He's a shotgun runner.

He's been stuffed the least on third down. And that's what he is. That's his role. And so what I think will happen is you're going to see a situation that might kind of look like Paul Perkins last year where, okay, you're the incumbent, you're going to start. And then we're going to realize that Royce Freeman needs that first and second down. But they're not going to – Devante Booker is the guy right now. They don't have a lot of other weapons. And I think early season, Devante Booker is great.

So if you spend a 10th round pick, 11th round pick, and I think you can start Devante Booker for three or four weeks. And then he may still have the sustained PPR value. So I think he's a value in drafts. I think he's being overlooked. We all are excited about Royce Freeman. We all know the skill set of Royce Freeman and first and second down is a lot better than Booker. I think he's just a steal in the 11th round. And there is the world that exists where Devante Booker actually holds on to his starting job. Royce Freeman was taken in the third round.

I love him, but you have to accept the facts that teams miss on drafting rookies. We miss on evaluating talent. And sometimes teams just prefer to go with their veteran player. So while I project Royce Freeman as the starter, I think we all do. This world does exist where Devante Booker has.

Not just standalone PPR value, but is the starting running back? Well, I think when you talk values, like for instance, you know, I don't like Peyton Barber, but at a certain point, he becomes a value when, you know, I think Ronald Jones will be the starter. But it's like if you get a guy at the very end who might be in an actual time share and, you know, be productive, that's what I see Devante Booker. Because when you say, yeah, teams miss on draft picks, what I thought was like, yeah, they did when they got Devante Booker.

they did miss on that. But, you know, I'm not a huge fan, but at the value, where he's going, he should outproduce it. And I'll pass the baton, but I want to give a comparison out there. You have situations like when, you know, Jeremy Hill came into the league and you just wait for him to take, you know, take over and, you know, Geo gets a ton of work. Geo gets a ton of that veteran trust, you know, even last year, you know, Joe Mixing, he didn't really get the work until later in the season. It happened to Derek Henry.

Monte Ball, who went to this exact same team, was I think if memory surf was a second round pick, and Nosham Moreno ended up being the guy who you wandered on your fantasy teams. Just saying it's, no, it's, sometimes the rookies take over quick. Sometimes they don't. Last year you saw both of those things. Yeah, I, Frank Gore, for example, held onto his job. Marlon Mack didn't steal it from him. A lot of preseason hype around Marlon Mac. So Frank Gore doesn't let go of the job. No.

Very strong hand. I almost went with Carlos Hyde in a very similar situation where the rookie coming in, Nick Chubb, has destroyed his draft value. But Carlos Hyde's the starter. He's going to be the starter. I don't think Chubb is going to take that this year, at least certainly not the first half. But that is not my value. My value, I'm going to go with a guy that I really hesitate. I really hate that I'm bringing him up because.

Did you know that you are in charge of what you bring up? This is like the coach that's like, boy, I really wish I could get this guy more playing time. You're the coach. Put him in. No, the reason I hate bringing him up isn't because I disagree with him being a value. It's because I have drafted this guy at such a value all offseason long. He is going where the ADP says he's going. And I don't want it to change.

I don't want people to go, oh, that is a good value. And then start drafting them. Wow. So you are buying, you that you are buying Jason Moore's bump on someone's ADP. You think you single-handedly are going to raise this player up. We'll see. We'll see. Here's the reality. The guy that I want to bring up is. Fart sniffer over here. The guy that I want to bring up is. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah. What does that mean?

It means you smell your own farts and you like they smell good. That's a thing? Yes. All right. Well, yeah, I'm looking at it. Come on. All right. So, DJ Moore is the name. DJ Moore. Mike was wondering in the dock who DM was worried I was going to go Doug Martin. Get out of here with that trash. Thank you. Okay, thank you. No. We're friends again. DJ Moore is a value. And if you've listened to the fantasy footballers for several years, you know that we have said, look, rookie wide receivers. We've said a lot.

We said a lot, but rookie wide receivers are not usually a good value. They're a bad play. 2014 happened, and in 2014, you had ever, I mean, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Devonte Adam. Calvin Benjamin. I mean, it was an unbelievable year where if you drafted rookie wide receivers, you were fantasy gold, and it distorted the viewpoint because, you know, that's not the norm.

And we have to take that outlier out. We need to recognize it can happen, but take that out. And we have told people, hey, stop drafting these wide receivers in these rookie wide receivers in the third round, in the fourth round, in the fifth round. Like it's hard to get value compared to the veteran wide receivers that are in the third, fourth, fifth round. But DJ Moore is going in the 11th round. He is being drafted as the 48th wide receiver off the board. And DJ Moore,

was very productive in college. His production profile is great. His athletic profile is even better. He's a 92nd percentile athlete. He was the first wide receiver drafted in the NFL, and you go, okay, well, I love everything about that. Maybe you don't like Cam Newton. That's your issue. I know you do, Mike, you don't. You were worried about the Cam. I went back and watched film in preparation for this.

I don't think there has been worse quarterback play in the history of from little kid flag leagues all the way up to retired Hall of Fame games than the quarterback play that DJ Moore had to withstand in college. Yes, you are correct. I mean, you can't even watch the film. It's just annoying watching these quarterbacks stink. But here's what I wanted to bring up.

Take the 2014 out. Let's just look at 2015, 2016, 2017, at how the top rookie wide receivers have finished. Okay, so over the last few years, you have an average over those three years of the top rookie wide receiver finishing as the wide receiver 17. That's a very realistic outcome here for what I perceive to be the number one rookie wide receiver. But let's say he doesn't hit the number one.

Let's say he's the number two, or even the number three. If he's the third best rookie wide receiver this year, on average over the last three, taking 2014 out, he still outproduces the 48th wide receiver. So I just don't see a world where this is, his upside is, you know, that wide receiver 15. The medium side is still a serviceable, you know, wide receiver 2, 3 flex option. I think the only thing that will change.

uh is the draft position i don't know if he'll be there when we get to draft time i think well not anymore not smelling this awesome fart over here freaking roses can you pull can you pull that out brooks please smelling this awesome fart over here um we've been smelling them for years jay they're not they're not so rosy mike you're on the clock before i get into my first value i want to thank today's sponsor

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All right, Mike. Who you got? All right. Apparently we see value on the Denver Broncos because the guy I want to bring up is Emmanuel Sanders. When it comes to finding a value like Sanders, I want to take a look. Has his situation improved? The answer is drastically. Last year, he was playing with a multitude of quarterbacks. And the highest passerating of that bunch was Trevor Simeon with a pass rating of

Just over 73. Then he was dealing with Brock Osweiler, Paxton Lynch. Now he gets Case Keenum. Granted, Case Keen, it's a smaller sample size, but that was a great year for Case Keenum who had a pass rating of over 98. Jason nailed a massive situation upgrade. Last year, Emmanuel Sanders was playing through injuries. He was coming off of three straight years of over 1,000 yards.

On top of that, of him just being a great wide receiver, an improved offense, Emmanuel Sanders might see the slot a little bit more. And he's already one of the best intermediate route runners in the league. The team spent a second round pick on Cortland Sutton. Perhaps they want to go Cortland Sutton into Marys Thomas on the outside. You put Sanders in the slot where he played just over 20% of his routes, and he was excellent. You know who played in the slot for Case Keenham last year?

Adam Thielen. Things went very well for Adam Thielen this past season. So do not ignore Emmanuel Sanders who's right now in PPR drafts is going in the eighth round, a guy who can easily be a wide receiver to again. The eighth round is absolutely ridiculous value for me for Manny. It's interesting because I love Emmanuel Sanders. I think he's one of the more talented players at the position over the last six, seven years.

He makes more out of less than a lot of receivers too. You do have to evaluate. The only thing that gives me pause, right? And I agree. He's a value. He's a value because of the upside of Emmanuel Sanders. But they do have a couple of, you know, new guys in town. He's getting up there in age. When do they start making those migrations? Like you said, with Sutton and with Deja on Hamilton. Both guys. Carlos Henderson. Yeah, both.

Hamilton and Sutton are flashing at camp right now. A lot of good comments coming out about them. Sure. But they're not going to. Where's his average drop position? Sanders is going in the top of the eighth round. Okay. He just those. Curious. Yeah. The young guys and when I'm talking about him playing in the slot and Sutton on the outside, if they're going to go too wide.

It's going to be Demarius Thomas and Sanders. I love Cortland Sutton and Hamilton, but they're not going to play over these established veterans who have been fantastic. No, they're not. They're going to replace them next year. Do you think he has a thousand yards season in him? You think Sanders does this year? It's in the realm of outcomes. I don't know if I would project a thousand yards, but he can easily hit that. All right. My next value is a big, yeah, Jay Gris loves it. Oh, it's Trey.