Crucial Start/Sit Decisions + Hungry For More, TNF Preview - Fantasy Football Podcast for 11/20

James has Jamison Williams has been very, very good, just had a monster game with, you know, 124 yards of touchdown. He's got Indianapolis a much better matchup. All that being said, I would agree that I would start Debo Samuel. In the games that Jameson Williams has not scored a long touchdown, right, he has a 64-yard touchdown, 37-yard touchdown, 70-yard touchdown, 52-yard touchdown. If he doesn't get that one long play, which is fine to gamble on, one for nine, one for negative four, three for 53. So it's not going to be volume. And maybe this is a little bit more of what do you need? But I still think I need a guy that's out there and getting more targets than Jameson Williams, despite the disappointment. Yeah, I agree. I mean, James seemingly has the higher odds at a big touchdown play. But if you look back at the last couple of games, even when Debo's been disappointing,

10.6 fantasy points, 10.1 fantasy points. This last week was an absolute bust, but he hasn't really let you down, and he always has the potential to score touchdowns for the 49ers. And you look at opportunities, and it's rare because usually we only talk targets with wide receivers. But with Debo, you've got to talk opportunities because he gets targets and handoffs, 11, 9, and 8 in the last three games. Yeah, give me that. So, yeah, I'm going to take the volume. Former my guy. Debo scene. Once upon a time. Once upon a time. Okay, let's jump into another voicemail here. Hey, fantasy footballers. This is Anthony from New Orleans. Who that? Shout out Papa Josh. What? My question is, I have Bill Burrow on a buy. I also have Cooper Cup. Should I ride the stack with Matthew Stafford or start Anthony Richardson for the upside? Both teams playing tough defenses. Thank you, ballers. Love the show.

So Matthew Stafford against Philly or Anthony Richardson against Detroit. I know my answer. Yeah, and he has Cooper Cop. Right. I would play Stafford. I know the matchup's terrible, and I don't think that'll be your answer. I would play Stafford because of the stack, because of the power of that, because of the fact he's had two four touchdown games in the last four games played with Puka and Cooper Cup in the equation. That's where I'd go. He's at home, which matters to me quite a bit in terms of the Philadelphia performance. That's where I'd go. Richardson had a great game. Stafford outscored him by a few points. Yeah, it's close, but I am genuinely afraid of the Philadelphia Eagles defense. It's not like a great, unbelievable matchup against Detroit, but they aren't a passing defense that scares me.

They also just lost, who's their D-Lyman they lost? I mean, you're talking about their linebacker? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Anzolone? Thank you. I can never remember beautiful blonde hair man's name. It sounds like pasta, you know what I mean? It does make me hungry. Like a nice big bowl of anzoloni with meat sauce. Dude, I would, I would gobble it up. Yeah. Sounds delicious. So I'm going Anthony Richardson. Really? Yeah, I would. Matthew Stafford's bad games have been. Really, really bad. How about Richardson's? No, I mean, both guys have a wide range of outcomes, but I can see a path for, in this matchup, for Anthony Richardson to go out and put up 30. If Stafford did it against Philly, I'd be blown away. We should make a bet. We should make a Stafford. Okay. But it's not just Staffordson versus Richardson because I think I. Did you say Staffordson? Okay, because here's the thing. I think that.

There's good odds that Stafford outscores Richardson in the sense that he scores 12 and Richardson scores 8. And then it's like, oh, great. It can either one get to 25 fantasy points. If either one does, then the other person wins. Because I think Richardson can have a 25 point game. I don't think Stafford can have a 25 point game here. I don't know how to bet that. How about we make a bet? I take Stafford. You take Richardson. Okay. But the only way you win it is if your guy scores 25 or more. There you go. Done. Okay. What's this for? Waterbed. And $100. Okay. I'm in. And $100. All right. Taylor Greenback on Twitter writes in, Devante Smith against the Rams, so the other side of that matchup, or the aforementioned Jameson Williams. Yeah, Devante Smith here for sure. This is a player who has been. What's with him, though?

You know, what's with the two disappearing games lately? Two disappearing games. One thing I did see is that there is no team in football that is doing less passing of the football than the Philadelphia Eagles. Because they were talking, I saw an article, they were talking about A.J. Brown and how he's performing at an extremely high level. But the Eagles offense is like dead last in passing expectation. So. That might be what's happened with Devante. Two for 14, four for 29. But you're very confidently on that side of the equation? I'm confidently on that side of the equation. See if I can find that stat for you. Because if you look at Devante Smith, he was really getting it done. Downfield, lots of targets, lots of yards, 85 yards touchdown, 87 yards in a touchdown. This last week was really disappointing.

Six targets, four for 29, a dud game. And you're going, well, he had back-to-back dud games. A week prior was a massive dud. But that week prior was that game against Dallas, where it was 34 to 6, Sequin ran all over him, and the game just disappeared. I don't see that happening against the Rams in Los Angeles. It was Adam Levitton that posted it. Eagles are dead last in PROE, which is pass rate over expectation in the last four games. By contrast, number one, just for curiosity's sake. Don't tell me it's Detroit. No, it's the Bengals. The Bengals are number one. In fact, maybe more interesting than that. Number two, Kansas City. That is a pass rate over expectation. I think part of that is, this is over the last month. Just four games. Yeah, so that Denver game where Kareem Hunt got 10 targets wildly and differently, I'm sure skews that. But yeah.

It's still interesting. I think Devante, I mean, not I think. Devante Smith is a disappointment this year. He hasn't had a top 12 week. Yeah, I mean. And he's right now, he's the 32nd ranked wide receiver. I think he was drafted higher than that. Yeah, he had his by week. He missed a game. By contrast, last year he had like, he had like six or seven performances in the top 12 last year. I don't know. I just feel like he's been more invisible this year is all I mean. He's not a worse player. but somehow more invisible because of Sequin and because of just the way the game has evolved for Philly. No one has drafted Devante Smith this year and gone. Like, I am succeeding because of him. Right. You know, I've got the Jalen Hertz, Devante Smith's stack and dynasty, and I've loved it most of the year. It's just not, it hasn't been a home run, but sometimes you need a double. And that is my final baseball comment.

Because Jameson Williams will give you a strikeout sometimes. Yeah, he's a grand slam or a strikeout. Dang it, I did it again. You did it again. You love baseball. And that's one of the things that I, you know, I've always known about you. Jason, the baseball guy. I do like baseball analogies. That's it. Is that a nice tune to put someone to sleep? I think yesterday we were talking about throwing out the first pitch. I mean, every day you're like. Go to sleep. You have to watch baseball tonight. Yeah. I wanted to take a quick look at the target pace for Devante Smith compared to last year in case that was a contrast that was worth noting. 1-12 last year. He's on pace for 105 this year. It's not much of a difference, which, you know, maybe just what has it got? Four touchdowns this year? What did he score last year? Do you know off the top of your head? I don't know off the top of my head. I would guess seven. Yeah, I mean, it's not.

that much different just maybe spread out a little bit in more wide receiver two performances than the big games and the bad game and you feel it when it's coming off of a down yeah it's like if you know two weeks ago we were happy with them he had three of four weeks with a touchdown it was doing great and then two bad games you're unhappy if if you if you only have just recency bias and you play based on what happened last week especially at the wide receiver position you just end up making the wrong start so often because there's not a ton of consistency at wide receiver outside of the top guys. And so when I look at these players, certainly James and Williams can outscore him, but I think who's the better wide receiver? Devante Smith is the better wide receiver. I want the more talented player. This is a good question. We actually talked about this in the studio briefly. Everyone's dealing with players they have to drop for bi-week pickups.

And Sander writes in on Instagram says, who is Josh Jacobs backup? And is he even worth rostering? The conversation yesterday was one in which Marshaun Lloyd was on a Josh Jacobs manager's bench. They have, you know, Lloyd hasn't played. Lloyd hasn't made it to the field. This week got disrupted by appendicitis, apparently. Yeah. And what, Emmanuel Wilson's been the guy back behind Josh Jacobs. And he's even worth rostering. That one's not clean. It's not a clean Trey Benson, not a clean Blake Corum. And so probably not. Like I will tell you, I am not rostering Joe Mixen's backup. I don't care. Because you're not sure that it is Damian Pierce. Because it's not. It'll be Damian Pearson. It'll be Daria Gumba Wallet. It'll be a few carries to another guy because we've already seen that. We saw Mix and Missed time earlier this year and it was supposed to be Cam Acres. And well, it wasn't. It was Cam Acres plus.

If you think, like it's better to roster somebody else that you'd flex above the randomness of a committee backfeet. Yeah, I can agree with everything you're saying. We talked on the Dynasty podcast. We were talking about the players who have disappointed and wrecked their dynasty stock and whether they're going to sink or swim. Like do we cut bait or do we think? And Marshall Lloyd was one of the names I brought up who is. obviously destroyed his value coming into the season as a day two running back and a committee for a good offense. And now, if you don't remember, he played 14% of the snaps a week two. And that's it. That's the only time we've seen him on an NFL field. I still like the talent and the opportunity. The report came out that he was supposed to be heavily involved in the game plan this last week, except.

He got appendicitis? Like, worst luck ever? I just don't believe it. And that's fine. I don't believe that he could possibly be a big part of the game plan. I do not. I never played it down and being third on the chart. I do not think Marshawn Lloyd needs to be rostered right now because I don't see the clear path towards starting him. But I do not think Marshaun Lloyd is dead. I think he's got bright days ahead. For dynasty? Yeah. Oh, yeah. I'm with you on that for sure. But I, this is a very competitive team. And I just would be shocked to have him trust in that much. Now, if he's a game breaker, he'll make his way to the field. Looks like Jeremy dropped Marshawn Lloyd as the Josh Jacobs manager this morning. Yeah. And I think part of that is he had been, you could tuck him onto IR. Right. You're not going to be able to do that anymore. All right, let's take a break and then we'll jump into some more mailback. Well, we've got the, we've got a lot of tough questions coming in. This one from X says Sam Darnold or C.J. Stroud.

I am a pretty big Stroud fan this week. Darnold plays in Chicago. C.J. Stroud is at home against Tennessee. I like Stroud more this week. I do as well. Which is not something we've said almost ever this year. Yeah, I mean, Stroud gets Nico Collins back, which is helpful. The Titans defense I think is good. However, this game is, you know, on the road for them. You just, you see it a lot with teams where the offense is so bad and that a good defense just can't hold up. You just can't hold up the whole game. And I think that's what's happened a lot recently for the Titans. You know, and if the offense turns ball over, give some short field, some easier touchdowns for Stroud. I will say I'm not as bullish as Stroud this week.

as you are, I'm just more, this is more being a little bit more anti-Darnold. You know, he's going up. Chicago is currently ranked number one in fantasy points against the quarterback position. It's on the road. It's just, it's not, it's not an exciting matchup for me. All right. YouTube question from Caleb Lewis. Quentin Johnson against Baltimore this week, bad passing defense. We like Quinn Johnston. Or the Raiders starting running back. You can't make me start the Raiders starting running back. And also, I mean, this one is, this one's like a 360 dunk. You know what I mean? This is easy. That's not a baseball reference. No, I'm done with that. Okay. I'm saying this is, this is like, you're going to love this. Quentin Johnson against Baltimore is a player I want. Baltimore this last week had a slug fest in division where it, you know, wasn't a lot of fantasy points given up. Although Pickens still had a decent game.

through the course of the season, you expect Lamar to score a ton of points. And then if that happens against the chargers in the Harbowl, then Quinn Johnson's going to be necessary and their secondary is not very good. YouTube, I was laughing because this question I just read it, Austin Anderson writes in off of YouTube. Who is the worst player you would currently start over Jim and Waddle? Okay. That's a weird question. I guess just keep scrolling. I'm here for it. Elijah Moore? Oh, we're going flex. I was thinking running back. I would definitely start Elijah Moore. Over Waddle. Over Waddle. Yeah. How about Michael Wilson of the Cardinals? Michael Wilson of the Cardinals. I think so. Yeah, sure. Give me Michael Wilson. I'm trying to think. Trey Tucker of the Raiders or Jalen Waddle. I'll go Jalen Waddle there. I don't think Trey Tucker is going to get it done this week. Theo Johnson in the flex or Jailun Waddle.

I'll go Waddle. How about this one, though? Gus Edwards or Jalen Waddle? Probably Gus. I think Gus because a touchdown. Yeah. Against Baltimore where he scored so many. Taylor Waddle's just dead. You know, it's... I mean, Jonu Smith. Oh, John Hussmith. I would definitely start. Uh, Instagram question from Riley. What is the pedal that Mike is using with his foot during the show? That is a mute button. So, um... Both Andy and I have a mute button just under the desk where I can touch it and mute myself as I'm doing now. This is great audio. Makes for a really good audio, yeah. And then Mike just put his on the floor so his hands can be free. To do jazz. Right. He does jazz hands usually when he mutes. Talks about doubt. If we have to cough or take a drink, you know. Mike is a musician, a guitar player, and very used to using pedals. So he prefers it on the floor. Is yours on the floor, Jeremy? Mine is on the floor.

And the deucers. Your buttons are different, though. Your buttons allow you to talk. Oh, yes. Ours are pushed to talk. Yours are pushed to talk. Yeah. Because we like talk. We should be talking. And you should be muted. I mean, we want you. If I could get rid of the push to talk part, I would. If Josh could deliver the way he did the mailbag drop, we'd let him talk about. Most of the stuff that comes out of his mouth is not that good. It's not like that all. No. All right. It's usually. Wild nonsense. Or incredible stories. I wish you were joking. That one isn't a bit. Wild nonsense or incredible stories from the 27 lives he's lived. Can I ask you one question, Papa Josh, before he move on? Sure. When you were a child, back when it was black and white, and you were in school, how many times did your teacher say the quote, Joshua, please use your inside voice? Never.

Never. I never went to school. I do talk a lot, but not loudly. I did get in trouble for talking a lot in school. Just so you know. Hold on. Real quick. Do you believe that you do not? Yeah, I need to know this. Do you actually believe that you? I'm loud. Okay. Okay. Okay. We're not saying we don't love you. No, we love you, man. We're saying that it's just good to know what you are. And we know where you are at all times. At all time. Oh, yeah. Yeah. I would just like to apologize to our devs who have to wear headphones. Yeah. They have noise cancelling headphones because of you. Josh brings a lot to the table for this company. Tina on Twitter says start Bo Nix or Kyler Murray this week. Oh, I love that question because I really like Bo Nix.

And the answer is Kyler Murray. Yeah, Kyler's got Seattle. And I've been looking forward to this Kyler matchup for a while. Yeah, he's coming off of the buy. And I mean, this is where as a Cardinals fan, we know what's coming, which is a, you know, some type of colossal defeat. Just awful play and looks like they've never played football before. Because right when you start to get hope, that's what happens. Are you saying you have hope now? I refuse to have hope. I am a hardened Cardinals fan where I know better than that. Breaking news. This is big. Mike Evans. Seen participating in practice on Wednesday. Baker Mayfield managers rejoice. Mike Evans managers, of course, get excited. Couldn't come at a better time if you've got players going on by this week.

Yeah, that is, that's great. Like Jamar Chase. Yeah, and not just for Mike Evans, but really for Baker. Baker has balled out and he's done an admirable job with Mike Evans's absence. But it was all he could do, all he could do. Now he gets a legit option back. But back to the Kyler Murray, you know, Kevin Cole does some great work on Twitter. The adjusted. quarterback efficiency through week 11. Kyler Murray is number one. He is above Lamar Jackson now. So he's been playing some really good ball and I would start him over Boenix. Are you in the same camp that Mike was asking for a friend that you would not worry about Otten because Godwin is missing and they found something special with Kate Otton? I think you said it right. McMillan is the worry.

If Jalen McMillan, they're a rookie wide receiver, who I think has looked pretty good this year, if he comes back and is healthy and kind of takes that next number two pecking order role, then that could disrupt. I don't think Mike Evans is disrupting Aughton. They play in different areas of the field. Otten's going to get his chain moving shorter yardage stuff, and Mike Evans is going to stretch the field. With waiver wires going through, it's a good day to remind you to drop it like it's hot, especially on a bi-week situation like this week. Drop it like it. That is what that phrase means on this show is please check who players drop to pick up other players. They're needing to fill bi-week spots. Maybe it's, you know, somebody even more important than the Marshawn Lloyd we talked about earlier. But people are going to get dropped today. Double check on those guys and make sure you survey the field there. We also don't.

Take the opportunity very much to remind you about other podcasts that we produce. So it might be worth taking a second to remind you that Matthew Betts and Kyle Borgenoni each and every week right now, twice a week. If you're into DFS and betting, betting, they have a fantasy footballer's DFS and betting podcast. And that is a really good name for that podcast. If you're into DFS and betting, you want the DFS and betting podcast. Right. And shout out to their work on the DFS pass. I believe. they are what was it uh they went undefeated on props two weeks ago and then they went like nine and two this week i know the last three weeks have been magma it can't possibly stay like that but they have they've been doing just great work uh their their um articles have been awesome we just keep getting tweets from people that are uh winning their first tournaments or or making a nice um having a good town yeah they're just having having fun

And then the dynasty podcast once a week with a deeper dive into the dynasty world of fantasy football can be heard. It features Matthew Betts, Kyle Borgannoni, and then generally it's going to be Mike or Jason as the third one on that show comes out once a week if you need a little extra dynasty action in your life. Every Wednesday that will release. It's a fun show. And we get to just talk longer. and deeper on that show. It's pretty fun for all you D-Gens out there. And then if you just need a break from football, which we do, which is why we do this show. It's our best work. We produce the ever ridiculous spitballers podcast once a week. We've done it for years. It is a comedy podcast where we answer nonsistical questions and act like buffoons. If your family makes you turn off the fantasy footballers when you're in the car because it's boring, just shift over to the spitballers. Whole family can listen.

Have a good time. Do some fun absurd drafts with us. It's a great show. Podcast. And I was going to say like dry, like if you're going on a road trip. Oh, yeah. It's a very fun binge show, the spitballers that you can tell you. Although the road trips coming up soon are going to be for Thanksgiving and they will not have time to listen to any of what you just said. Because next week. The Megalodon episode. Yes, we have our supersized Megalodon show next Wednesday. We're aiming for 14 hours. 14 hours long. Starts of the week, matchups tomorrow. Divided by seven. Matchups plus Wheel of Shame on Friday. That'll do it for today's show. Shout out to the Ducers, regular volume, Al Borland, extra loud volume, Papa Josh, and the poopiest man alive. Goodbye.

you for listening to another episode of the fantasy footballers podcast join our fantasy football community on join the foot dot com and follow us on twitter at the ffballers